F-22Raptor
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Another day of huge Russian losses
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Well, but then if someone invade your home, that's not up to you anymore, there are only 3 choices, fight back, roll over or leave. I can stay here and debate you negotiation or works are better than war for the rest of time, but this does not ignore the fact that someone had chosen war, and that person is not you.I agree. I think the struggle of the Ukrainian man on the frontline is just and tragic. Break my heart to see men die in the way they do. I think the crooks in Kiev were Simps not for their own people but for external interests and personal benefit. It is not always prudent or smart to wage war no matter who cheerleads you.
If someone pushes you to war (cliff) does not mean you do it.
It would have been far better to establish some level of autonomy for Eastern Ukraine within the Ukrainian nation.
Then buy time to bring legislative changes, develop stronger economy, take on a neutral position, give Russia a sense of calmness, and slowly develop the country while balancing between East and West and be a bridge for both those poles.
That approach would have served everyone's interests. Now it serves the interest of the military industrial complex and cheap politicians in the West and even Putin's own retrenchment on power in some ways. Western politicians have failed to provide for Western societies so they are running around scaring their own populations of the next boogeyman, while raping and plundering their own wealth in line with special interests. The Western political system is failing and only survives on the basis now of cultural wars (within their own systems) and hatred for the others globally.
Okay lets take for a minute your argument is correct.Well, but then if someone invade your home, that's not up to you anymore, there are only 3 choices, fight back, roll over or leave. I can stay here and debate you negotiation or works are better than war for the rest of time, but this does not ignore the fact that someone had chosen war, and that person is not you.
It's one thing to fight, another thing to fight for what you believe in, and then another thing for your own existence, as long as there are Ukrainian who don't see themselves as Russian, this fight is going to continue.
Many people, including you keep talking about western society or western political system, the thing is, all these things that started is because of the East, and this is a very simply fact of someone invading my home, East or West political system or belief aside, I am going to fight back.
Then you need to look at how war subsist in Russian and Ukrainian society.I agree with your analysis. I think the option above you sight is a third of the likely scenario.
The second is a continuing grind it out stalemate with incremental wins and losses on both end, but on net basis stagnant.
The third option is that the Ukrainian's have a harder and harder time to bring battle ready formations. After all it is the Ukrainian counter offensive that has ground down to a stalemate. Keep in mind Russian offensive brought them to the outskirts of Kiev. Then Ukr counter offensive saw some massive regains. Then a halt. Why did that halt happen? I think it happened because the front-line was too broad/spread and CF could have been flanked, hence Ukrs slowed down. This gave Russians the time to re-orient themselves with better more defensible lines and you have the situation we find. Ukr is having a hard time pushing Russia further back at this point.
In terms of Western gear - the Ukr have a free flow of Western gear. 88 Tanks or 300 tanks are not likely to turn the battle in any meaningful way.
If I were a betting person I think we are likely to continue to see a stalemate. With limited shift. At some point between now and a few weeks from now - Russia will attempt some pushes. I think they'll make some modest gains but will fail in a major outbreak.
The Ukrs will get their 30-40K NATO trained fighting formations ready by Summer. We'll see a late summer push by the Ukrainians this time with more NATO gear and tanks. This will have an effect with some gains but there too I think it will be partial. I think we are likely to see a bigger mobilization by Russia by Summer time if their Spring offensive grounds down or a serious effort at armistice and peace agreement.
The thing is, I understand why Iraqi insurgency fight, that does not mean I support it. If Canada invaded US, if you are Canadian, would you "support" American Insurgency?Okay lets take for a minute your argument is correct.
Would you then support that Iraqi insurgency against the Western military forces was a just cause and the West was immoral and wrong in that invasion, and hence some of their leaders should tried as war criminals?
The US formally announces Russia has committed crimes against humanity.
Unless the eastern Ukraine ethnic population is not considered as untermensch and unless they are recognized as humans that have rights by western countries this conflict will continue.
Minsk 3 maybe after Putin would be a solution for Ukraine terrotorial integrity in exchange of easing sanctions to Russia. For Crimea it is like Kosovo maybe another referandum can be made with independent observers. Ukraine lost it when Timoshenko called for taking out the Russian speakers in 2014 and there were etnic mass killings in Donbass region. First step should be ceasefire ofcourse.
You are hundred percent right. Many of these images we also see of Russian Tanks and BMPs etc., are classic examples of equipment failure (with poor logistic for extraction and repair). With shifting lines this equipment is often left in rushed stage. This has often resulted in a Russian leaving their gear behind. Then comes in a miraculous Drone with a little frag grenade that drops one through an open hatch. And you have a tik tok video, or a youtube short and people cheerlead Ukraine and the dumb Europeans to more war. Humans are truly mad.One loss category which seems to not to be noticed by anybody is engineering equipment, and how irreplaceable it is.
Russians, as I understood, never produced any new engineering vehicles since 1991, unlike tanks, which are a big name item, which can be exported. They just likely thought they will never run out of it, since USSR has left them mountains of it.
Now, they are very short on bridging, trenching, and recovery vehicles according to UA intel intercepts, and have to abandon tanks which got stuck, or have to wait for a recovery unit for days.
If Russia declares war today with Putin speech that would force western countries into war economy as well. Also it would be harder for Russian allies like China to give support without taking sides with official war declaration. I doubt that would happen.It would be mistake if war is declared. Otherwise it would get harder to convince citizens of western countries to pay for the war effort continiously.The conflict will continue until UA tanks will roll on the Red Square
the war is then over if Putin withdraws the invasion army. Think about that for few seconds. Other than that is just worthless propaganda shit.I am blown away at the one-sided posting on this forum. I think it does the Ukrainians a dis-service when people just cheerlead propaganda. Ukraine's losses are mind numbing. Dropping a grenade on an idle tank, with an open hatch is not a winning strategy. It is a simple propaganda meant to make people believe in a lie that somehow Ukraine is winning this war (in order to continue the flow of dollars and poor men to the front). Russian is grinding whatever is left of Ukrainian men. I have to give them (Ukrainians) my greatest respect on how they fight, it is truly commendable, but these men are being lost due to the corruption/racism/greed of some Elites within Ukraine and the West's rapacious desire to create trouble everywhere. The West is masterful in sowing hatred among brothers. No one should buy that Ukraine is winning. Russia is advancing and will reach a point in a few weeks where they will have the ability to break out onto the plains. The real question now is whether they can breakout before the thaw, and also how many innocents will be lead to slaughter by greed.