Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624150750271008769

 

[mulj]

It is not a question of logic.
Laws of Neutrality says that trade does not violate neutrality, and weapons deliveries violates neutrality.
Laws of neutrality does not care if the money earned by trade is used to produce weapons.

ulitmateliy it is, laws are among other things derived from logic...
I am sorry to be praty braker but my common sennce and availabel information do not allow other position as it is.

 

[Corruptistan]

Rubbish - Rubbish - Rubbish ….what can Russia do to Nato that it is already failing to do to Ukraine?????

Where is the rubbish? What part of my post was "rubbish" exactly? I am open for you pointing it out.

For starters a full blown NATO-Russia war could risk nuclear armageddon or at least the use of nuclear weapons.

Your question could also be asked in regards to NATO. What more can NATO do to hurt Russia more other than sending actual ground troops as I wrote? I guess the weapons that most NATO/Ukraine allies are prepared to send, have been sent. What more is realistic in this regard? Supplies of actual fighter jets such as F-17, F-15, F-35 etc.?

Mind you, I am neither pro-Russia nor pro-Ukraine, I am a simple neutral observer. This conflict does not concern me directly anymore than the civil war in Congo does or the Papuan insurgency in West Papua.

I understand the grievances (political and non-political) from Ukraine and Russia, Ukrainians in Ukraine, Russian minority in Ukraine etc.

Anyway this war has turned into much more than just a Ukraine-Russia war, it has become a global war between Ukraine + NATO allies and their satellite/allied states (call it what you want) and Russia and allied states, mostly Russia alone so far.

If you ask me, my prediction is that the territorial gains of Russia will not change much and if they do, Russia will keep Crimea and most of/if not all of Donbas, effectively annexing the majority Russian areas of Ukraine as they were pre-2014.

Ukraine in tern will grow even closer to NATO/EU and Russia might be forced to consent to Ukraine NATO/EU membership with some conditions to the security of Russia/no stationing of nuclear weapons, only missiles with a certain range etc. Either that or Ukraine becomes a neutral state with feet planted in both camps.

Anyway we will see what will occur down the road.

If this satisfies you, in case you think that I am somehow pro-Russian here (I am not), from my perspective, the entire Russian offensive (largely) in Ukraine has been amateurish and the entire "Ukraine approach" of Putin and his oligarchic regime has been totally counterproductive, if the goal was to draw the average Ukrainian closer to Russia and for him/her to prefer to be a part of the "Russian sphere of influence" rather than the say Polish/EU/European sphere of influence. This proved to be a fatal mistake and outside of brutal force (conquest of Ukrainian territory) I don't see much pro-Russian sentiment among ethnic Ukrainians who make up around 80-85% of Ukraine's population.

 

[jhungary]

Rubbish - Rubbish - Rubbish ….what can Russia do to Nato that it is already failing to do to Ukraine?????

Russia lost a lot of people in the last 2 weeks, most Western intelligence agree that Russia had already started their "Spring" offensive in Winter. If that is the case, Russia have around a month and a half left to grab as much land as possible. Then they will culminated and the next 2 to 3 months would be for Ukraine to stabilise the line, then counter attack.

Not sure why Russia brough forward the schedule, maybe the news of Western Tank spooked them? But then they should know there are going to be a good few months before we are seeing those in Ukraine..

 

[Corruptistan]

And more than one country was involved in supplying Saudi Arabia overt and covert assistance in its war against Yemen. There is no basis to say that Saudi Arabia’s war is more just on Yemen so it involves Western support. They also were interested in power projection and expanded the scope of conflict and by all indications are the aggressive party

No Western country is specifically supplying weapons to KSA in relation to the Yemeni civil war. In fact most of them stopped their "offensive weapons" exports to KSA after 2014, forcing KSA (luckily in hindsight) to focus on their thriving local arms industry and looking at in-house production of key components (bombs included), and looking elsewhere for imports.
However those deals with Western firms were signed before the civil war began, meaning the deals are not party to/directly tied to Yemen. There have been deals after the war started but you should point out the nature of the deals and if they are related to Yemen because I am not aware of that being the case.

In fact there has been a gigantic propaganda campaign from Western media that falsely points to a few civilian casualties in a list of 10.000's of air operations that largely eliminated their intended targets (non-civilians). Most of the casualties are internal Yemeni vs Yemeni fighting on the ground or humanitarian related due to Houthi incompetence/policies. Case in point, zero starvation in Yemeni government controlled areas since 2014, meaning the areas where KSA/Arab coalition and the international community can freely send supplies too. Not to say that Yemen, since always in modern history, has relied completely (economically) on KSA. To this day most of Northern Yemen is financed by Northern Yemeni expats working just across the border in Southern KSA.

Western/outside assistance to KSA in regards to the Yemeni civil war (ground operations) has been limited to the US Navy patrolling international waters of which the Gulf of Aden, Bab el Mandeb, Arabian Sea, Red Sea etc. are key in terms of trade and free navigation and the dual usage of drone warfare to target specific AQAP targets and the usual counter-terrorist operations.

In any case there is no Saudi Arabian war on Yemen, unless Houthis equal Yemen. There is Saudi Arabian assistance to the legitimate and internationally recognized government in Yemen (Hadi) against an internationally recognized terrorist group (Houthis) who took power through a coup in 2014 (early phase of the so-called "Arab Spring") and later launched hostile actions towards a neighbor (Yemen). No country in KSA's position would have remained silent. In any case there has been a ceasefire for almost 1 year by now, and KSA's involvement has been limited to air campaigns and a limited number of ground troops in Southern, Eastern and Northern Yemen which all ended with liberation of Yemeni territory from the Houthis and later AQAP. Anyway Yemen is outside of the scope of this thread.

 

[F-22Raptor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624132962613698561

 

[ziaulislam]

You realise that with the speed of advance of your beloved russians…that this conflict will drag on for more then a year?

The armata on the other hand will still be doing parades only at that time

Well..with current oil prices Russia can fight another 10 yrs easy.

 

[Oldman1]

I lost track of what is going on in Ukraine in the past few weeks. Last thing I saw earlier today was that Ukrainian forces were being surrounded in Bakhmut and that Russians were preparing a large-scale offensive in Donbas and other regions.

Even with the massive NATO donations and weapons deliveries, familiarity with the land, supposedly greater civilian support for the Ukrainian army, you are hard-pressed to defeat/win a war against an adversary that is improving and learning (Russia) from its mistakes as well as heavily armed. Not to mention maybe the most important thing in the current arena of battle (massive direct troop engagements), numerical superiority and no respect/tactics to limit casualties from your side (Russia). A favorite tactic of post-1917 Russia that has proven successful in many arenas from WW1 and WW2 to nowadays in parts of Donbas.

Now if those countries (NATO) that are flooding Ukraine with weapons to help Ukraine, would send troops then the Russians would be royally screwed but that would most likely start the "real" war between NATO and Russia and it would not be a pretty sight for all of us. So here we are.

Who will blink first?

Russia doesn't want a real war with NATO. Excluding nukes, they be screwed literally.

 

[Oldman1]

Russia lost a lot of people in the last 2 weeks, most Western intelligence agree that Russia had already started their "Spring" offensive in Winter. If that is the case, Russia have around a month and a half left to grab as much land as possible. Then they will culminated and the next 2 to 3 months would be for Ukraine to stabilise the line, then counter attack.

Not sure why Russia brough forward the schedule, maybe the news of Western Tank spooked them? But then they should know there are going to be a good few months before we are seeing those in Ukraine..

Probably suck at estimating the time table and expect western tanks coming pretty soon I guess.

We will never know cause there will be no Abrams at line of contact in Ukraine

We will never know since Armatas won't be in Ukraine ever even when Abrams have been delivered.

 

[Ich]

You realise that with the speed of advance of your beloved russians…that this conflict will drag on for more then a year?

Mmh, how many and what weapons has "the West" left to send to Ukrain? Europe is nearly empty. So i dont think that the war will last another year.

The armata on the other hand will still be doing parades only at that time

Hö? Armata is already in Donbas, waiting on the Abrams which never will come

We will never know since Armatas won't be in Ukraine ever even when Abrams have been delivered.

Armatas already waiting in Donbas but Abrams never will come

 

[khansaheeb]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1624132962613698561

Question as the Russians vamp up tank production how quickly the destroyed Tanks will be replaced.

 

[Oldman1]

View attachment 916016


Armatas already waiting in Donbas but Abrams never will come

LOL! Yeah sure like they are in Ukraine.

 

[jhungary]

Probably suck at estimating the time table and expect western tanks coming pretty soon I guess.


We will never know since Armatas won't be in Ukraine ever even when Abrams have been delivered.

I don't see any push that big; I mean if they really do dump 200,000 men like Western Intelligence suggest and they made progress no better than June last year? That is going to be a problem for Russia, because you need to contempt with a possible counterattack THAT'S ALWAYS COMING, and the real estate is the buffer you have (as Russian side) to stabilise the line so they can prepare for defensive position behind the line. This happens after Ukraine counter attacked from Izyum (They don't do that after Kharkiv because that's goes back to Russian territories) they pull back to Kreminna and building the line in svatove. And then we also see it from Kherson when the Russian retreat from Kherson and building fortification on the other side.

But then, if they just able to take Bakhmut (that is if they were able to close the cauldron to begin with) that place would have been counter attacked almost immediately after Ukraine made its move. And that's bad in military term because you are going to trap a bunch of firepower in that area because, well, you just push to get there. Russia need to push the line 20-30km away from Bakhmut for it to be a safe gain, and I seriously doubt the Russian can do that before May. Which is most likely when they culminated.

 

[ZeGerman]

Mmh, how many and what weapons has "the West" left to send to Ukrain? Europe is nearly empty. So i dont think that the war will last another year.

sierra army depot….?
USA will send 30 of their 6000 abrams stock.
Russia lost half of their tank fleet in a year….

Europe has fewer stocks, but could still step up to donate aircraft. Or buy up material to send.

Hö? Armata is already in Donbas, waiting on the Abrams which never will come

View attachment 916016


Armatas already waiting in Donbas but Abrams never will come

sure, doing a quick parade and photo opp.
Its so far a failed project:

Russia seems uninterested in buying new T-14 Armata tank for itself

Western analysts have worried that Russia's T-14 Armata tank could outmatch NATO's tanks, but Moscow doesn't seem very confident about it.

www.businessinsider.com

 

[ZeGerman]

Question as the Russians vamp up tank production how quickly the destroyed Tanks will be replaced.

Putin's comments underline growing Russian concern over jet, tank production - Breaking Defense

Experienced observers of Russia’s defense sector point out that the US-led sanctions have a disproportionate effect on aerospace production, more so than any other sector.

breakingdefense.com

Can the Russian military industrial complex recover the war losses fast enough? - Raam op Rusland

Russia’s military capabilities have suffered irreparable losses after four months of war. Its armed forces lost not only soldier, but also equipment and missiles. Is the military industrial complex in Russia ready to recuperate the weaponry fast enough? No, writes Pavel Lozin. At the current...

www.raamoprusland.nl

10 years…assuming sanctions will not start to be felt…which it will.

Russia is burning through its inventory at high speed. Their superpower status turned out to be inflated…and is deflating continuously as this conflict goes on.