Vergennes
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Russia-Ukraine War - News and Developments PART 2
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Hassan Al-Somal
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Is this going to be the new story after the HIMARS booga booga ran its course? Russians will figure out these fake signals, I assume.
Hassan Al-Somal
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Ukrainian military casualties are big trouble for Biden
Ukraine has likely lost 100,000 soldiers who won’t readily be replaced while US arms deliveries are depleting stocks and exposing security holes in Asia
by Stephen Bryen December 1, 2022
A Ukrainian cemetery with recently buried war dead. Estimates have put Ukrainian casualties at over 100,000. Image: Twitter
In a shocking statement that has now been withdrawn, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen wrote that Ukraine has lost 100,000 soldiers and 20,000 civilians in the Ukraine war.
This conforms to comments made by US Joint Chief of Staff head General Mark Milley, who in a speech at a conference hosted by New York’s Economic Club said that more than 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war and that the number of troop casualties is probably the “same” for Ukraine’s army.
Ukraine’s heavy casualties are a signal that Washington’s de facto war with Russia is in trouble. President Joe Biden has to change direction or face a national security crisis that could end his presidency.
Ukraine may look as if it were winning. The truth is the opposite because Ukraine is running out of manpower it cannot replace. It is losing by attrition on the battlefield and, with the Russians systematically destroying its infrastructure, millions of Ukrainians have fled abroad. It is unlikely the country could recover even if the war should end tomorrow.
Meanwhile, Russia’s manpower problems are less severe. Moscow has been replenishing its supply of front-line troops through an unpopular conscription program at home that has now been extended to the territories in Ukraine that it occupies.
Russia’s proxy army, the Wagner Group, also has been significantly enlarged from 8,000 last April to nearly 40,000 now. Many Wagner Group fighters have been recruited from Russian prisons and some have been brought in from other countries, especially the Middle East and Africa.
Members of the Wagner Group in Syria. Photo: Twitter
Ukrainian estimates the number of Wagner Group casualties at between 800 and 1,000; others put them at 3,000.
Among the most stunning bits of information that have recently surfaced, reports in Poland say that around 1,200 Polish “volunteers” have been killed in Ukraine. These appear to have been drawn from Poland’s active land army, which consists of three main divisions.
The Polish army is composed of 61,200 soldiers and support personnel. It is unlikely Poland will commit many more troops given the high casualties and the risk that Russia will strike Poland in retaliation.
The most recent estimate of the Ukraine land army’s fighting strength is 198,000 troops. Given the alarmingly high casualty rates, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is facing a genuine crisis if the war drags on much longer.
Russia has recently focused on destroying Ukraine’s critical infrastructure and Ukrainian command posts, and equally on liquidating to the degree possible Ukraine’s high-value weapons, particularly precision rocket systems such as HIMARS, air defense units and Ukrainian artillery.
The battlefield casualties on the Ukrainian side appear to be largely the result of Russian heavy artillery that is being coordinated by Russian drones, most of them variants of the Orlan-10.
An Orlan-10 drone. Photo: Wikipedia
Russia has also made progress by improving its command and control and leadership in the field. The Russians pulled back strategically from Kherson in order to preserve manpower and organize better defensive positions.
Most of the heavy fighting now appears to be taking place in and around Bakhmut, where Russian and local troops seem to be making slow but steady progress. That battle is chewing up Ukrainian reserves and has cost Ukraine large amounts of ammunition that cannot readily be replaced.
The Europeans have made clear that their resources have diminished to a critical level and that continuing to supply Ukraine may not be possible. The US is also facing an empty cupboard, especially regarding important high-tech systems such as HIMARS, antitank weapons such as Javelin and MANPADS including Stinger.
The US also is short on conventional ammunition, including 155mm shells. Worse still, the emptying of vital war stocks has delayed deliveries of supplies to Taiwan and created vacuum opportunities for China should it choose to strike Taiwan.
Taiwan is not getting HIMARS, or long-range artillery, or even F-16V jets, whose manufacture has been strangely delayed for some years. In a recent exercise in Japan, the US Marines flew in a HIMARS but did not fire it because of rocket shortages.
Republicans won narrow control of the US House of Representatives in the 2022 mid-term elections. Leader Kevin McCarthy (left) will have his hands full fielding the demands of a far-right faction led by Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, who is a harsh critic of Ukraine war spending. Photo: Facebook / The Hill
At some point, Congress may start asking questions such as why the administration risked US security for Ukraine. It is abundantly clear the US Congress can’t keep voting for billions of dollars worth of weapons for Ukraine when the US itself lacks the arms and can’t support its vital interests elsewhere.
The bottom line in Ukraine is that Zelensky may be unable either to sustain and replenish his war materials or to make up for his lost troops. While the Ukrainian government has been actively censoring war information (which is not at all surprising; von der Leyen is the latest victim), it’s clear that the noose is tightening.
Meanwhile, the degradation of Ukraine’s critical infrastructure may fuel an even greater exodus from the country, as people look for warmth and shelter and young people also dodge the draft.
Russia, as is by now well known, also has serious problems both in recruiting and training soldiers, and its ability to replace weapons. But Russia also has huge war stocks it acquired before the downfall of the Soviet Union, and it is now bringing some of them to bear in the Ukraine war.
It is extremely hard to judge Russian staying power since objecting to the war or criticizing the army can land the outspoken in prison. Even so, there does not yet appear to be an internal anti-war movement with enough credibility to drive Russian leaders to back off. Russia will stay in the war through the winter and perhaps longer, guessing that it can fracture NATO and humiliate the United States – which is Russia’s real goal now.
Russian servicemen near Kherson, Ukraine, May 20, 2022. Image: Screengrab / BBC
In Washington, President Biden benefits, at least for now, from showing that he is a strong leader who can “fight the good fight,” albeit using Ukrainians as proxies. But as winter falls on Europe, with a looming energy crisis and serious financial problems, it is hard for Biden to be comfortable with the risk that, one bright day, the entire enterprise crashes and burns.
Biden wants to run for president again in 2024 and thinks he can win the same way he won in 2020. But that may not be the case if his war goes belly-up, if Europe moves in another direction or if real trouble comes in Asia focused on Taiwan or even Korea.
Biden cannot survive a crisis over who lost Europe, who lost Taiwan, or who lost Korea. To be credible and remain in office, Biden must change direction on Ukraine and security, and soon.
Stephen Bryen is a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy and the Yorktown Institute. Follow him on Twitter at @stevebryen
Ukrainian military casualties are big trouble for Biden
Ukraine has likely lost 100,000 soldiers who won’t readily be replaced while US arms deliveries are depleting stocks and exposing security holes in Asia
by Stephen Bryen December 1, 2022
https://asiatimes.com/2022/12/ukrainian-military-casualties-are-big-trouble-for-biden/
Cracks are opening up that the West can't keep up with the demands of this war. It looks like Russian military planners' grinding progress of the war is paying dividends.
Hassan Al-Somal
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A.P. Richelieu
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The Azov battallion was defending Mariupol And the remains was captured.The Neo-Nazi views of the Ukrainian armed groups such as Azov is pretty much documented. This is not something that is up for a debate.
Commentary: Ukraine’s neo-Nazi problem
As Ukraine's struggle against Russia and its proxies continues, Kiev must also contend with a growing problem behind the front lines: far-right vigilantes who are willing to use intimidation and even violence to advance their agendas, and who often do so with the tacit approval of law...www.reuters.com
They were integrated into the Ukrainan Army, and there is really no proof that NeoNazism play a role after that.
The Ukrainan Army is now hundreds of thousand troops newly recruited with no connection to Azov. They are fighting the war criminals you support. That makes them freedom fighters and not Nazis. The hypocricy is amazing.
bobo6661
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Someone said Russia still not using its powa and its only Kharkiv...
I mean he does not mind the nazi russians from wagner that are opening new offices and meeting with puttler regularly.... And sledgehammering their own
I mean he does not mind the nazi russians from wagner that are opening new offices and meeting with puttler regularly.... And sledgehammering their own
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jhungary
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Dude, you have no idea on what I am talking about. What you are doing is just making you looking like an a$$.
I am sure the Russian pilot can that is a fake Radar from up there over flying over 30,000 ft. Because a radar lock is a radar lock, unless you saw what lock on you, you can't figure out whether or not this is real or fake. This is a real war, not a movie dude.
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Reashot Xigwin
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"But, but the ukies are Nazi... " Said a Cu*t
bobo6661
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Reashot Xigwin
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Mass graves in Mariupol
BHAN85
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Russia rejects West's oil price cap, mulls supply suspension
Russia rejects West's oil price cap, mulls supply suspension Dec 04, 2022 11:47 PM Moscow has voiced opposition against a price cap on Russian oil and said European countries championing the price cap could face a suspension of oil supplies, local media reported over the weekend. The...
defence.pk
The next time you buy something expensive, you can say to the seller "I introduce a price cap of 1 dollar for your product, if you dont know what the hell I'm talking about, ask to EU dumbheads".
Hassan Al-Somal
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