Russia is under attack as someone is attempting to open the Finland front This could trigger another invasion

[UKBengali]

They would and every Finn would fight. Their love of firearms is a national pastime, they spend their entire time outside etc.
Yes they also have a well equipped force which would be bolstered by the Europeans and US fast.

Exactly.

US can easily ship dozens of F/A-18s if the Finns need them.

I think it would be the Russians that end up getting attacked by Finnish planes as Finland gains air superiority over the battefield.

 

[kankan326]

I have an idea for Russia. 1)Russia should build a defence line along its border with Finland. Leave relatively small scale of troops to defend the border. 2) Use rocket launchers to bomb Helsinki in a way of 24/7.

In a word. Do not enter Finland territory. Harass it. Which will destroy its economy at lowest cost.

 

[serenity]

If I was Putin I would try to off ramp Ukraine with whatever best case realistic scenario he can manage.

Regroup and learn from mistakes.

And plan with China for the emerging world order. (Looking at the map, they can make things very interesting for the Western Pacific if they plan properly)

Whatever he does, he should make sure Russia doesn't get dragged into a long campaign of attrition in Ukraine.

Which is exactly what the West wants to happen it's looking like.

Russia's current only two major strengths are its nuclear forces and its resources. Its large landmass balances the problem of distance. Oftentimes extremely large landmass is a problem for development and planning, even industry.

The fact is the world is roughly owned by three groups. Owned or dominated in terms of financial economic industrial ownership - roughly 1/3 to USA, a bit less than 1/4 for China and less than 1/4 EU or western and northern Europe. The rest is mostly dominated by Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, and India. The remaining by pretty much all the others remaining. Russia while having heaps of potential wealth simply has a much smaller share of the world's equity of "all things".

Russia doesn't have the resources (not the raw resources) to do much honestly until it develops itself into an industrial and then an economic powerhouse. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has focused mostly on holding onto military power and military industries. This was already partly one mistake during Soviet times but the Soviet Union was so much smaller in population and industrial power than the combined west. They were also always responding to military strength build up by the west that derived from having larger and better industries. So it's easy to forgive or at least understand their desire to focus on military.

I don't think Russia has the energy or resource to really do something in western pacific except hold onto what they have and continue having strong submarine presence in northern seas and the arctic.

Every military adventurism and build up presence comes at the cost of industrial and economic development. When you are in a weakened state or distracted and spread thin, it is the time to rest, recoup, reorganize, not go out partying in another direction. It's time to pull back and get back to first principles and your foundations to maybe amend things and restructure rather than continue with the same broken mechanism. Russia isn't broken I don't want to say that but it's simply not the same size and strength (except nukes) as either EU/ western and northern Europe or the USA. In terms of pure economic and industrial power and "ownership", Russia is not even comparable to Japan.

It is a country with the potential to be as powerful as the USA but this is where I mean it should rethink, reorganize, recoup, and find another way to re-engage its major geostrategic concerns. After decades or centuries, it could easily be the dominant superpower. It certainly has the people, raw resources, landmass, and geographic position being Eurasian pivot at least a northern one.

 

[waz]

Exactly.

US can easily ship dozens of F/A-18s if the Finns need them.

I think it would be the Russians that end up getting attacked by Finnish planes as Finland gains air superiority over the battefield.

Hypothetically writing if such a scenario happened yes it would make perfect sense. The US would hand over their F/A-18E/F's and the Finns would simply take off and fight. No need for training, lag time wouldn't happen etc. Now add in the EA-18G Growler's and the Russians would really be in trouble.

 

[kankan326]

Exactly.

US can easily ship dozens of F/A-18s if the Finns need them.

I think it would be the Russians that end up getting attacked by Finnish planes as Finland gains air superiority over the battefield.

If necessary, China can sell Russia fighter jets. But Russia should gurantee those jets can only be used to protect itself. The jets should not cross its border.

 

[Avicenna]

Russia's current only two major strengths are its nuclear forces and its resources. Its large landmass balances the problem of distance. Oftentimes extremely large landmass is a problem for development and planning, even industry.

The fact is the world is roughly owned by three groups. Owned or dominated in terms of financial economic industrial ownership - roughly 1/3 to USA, a bit less than 1/4 for China and less than 1/4 EU or western and northern Europe. The rest is mostly dominated by Japan, South Korea, Australia, Canada, Brazil, Indonesia, and India. The remaining by pretty much all the others remaining. Russia while having heaps of potential wealth simply has a much smaller share of the world's equity of "all things".

Russia doesn't have the resources (not the raw resources) to do much honestly until it develops itself into an industrial and then an economic powerhouse. Since the end of the Cold War, Russia has focused mostly on holding onto military power and military industries. This was already partly one mistake during Soviet times but the Soviet Union was so much smaller in population and industrial power than the combined west. They were also always responding to military strength build up by the west that derived from having larger and better industries. So it's easy to forgive or at least understand their desire to focus on military.

I don't think Russia has the energy or resource to really do something in western pacific except hold onto what they have and continue having strong submarine presence in northern seas and the arctic.

Every military adventurism and build up presence comes at the cost of industrial and economic development. When you are in a weakened state or distracted and spread thin, it is the time to rest, recoup, reorganize, not go out partying in another direction. It's time to pull back and get back to first principles and your foundations to maybe amend things and restructure rather than continue with the same broken mechanism. Russia isn't broken I don't want to say that but it's simply not the same size and strength (except nukes) as either EU/ western and northern Europe or the USA. In terms of pure economic and industrial power and "ownership", Russia is not even comparable to Japan.

It is a country with the potential to be as powerful as the USA but this is where I mean it should rethink, reorganize, recoup, and find another way to re-engage its major geostrategic concerns. After decades or centuries, it could easily be the dominant superpower. It certainly has the people, raw resources, landmass, and geographic position being Eurasian pivot at least a northern one.

Definitely agree.

Here's the thing.

I see Russia as being provoked by the West.

To effectively neutralize it at worst or use it at best against the coming conflict against China.

Also, it's pretty apparent there is REAL hate between Putin and Western liberal imperialists.

Putin may have blundered in falling for the bait.

Not the first time a nation has taken Western bait and gotten decimated.

The argument that is being pushed now appears to be that is that there is a battle being waged between democratic and autocratic camps. (Please note how the US has been interacting with Bangladesh recently)

Observe leading Western news outlets and publications and the terms they are using.

China had better take notice.

Once distractions like the "acute threat" Russia poses are taken care of.....the West is coming for China.

And yes, although a lot of us live here in the West and enjoy all it has to offer.

You have to wonder, it is a good thing that there is no balance in world and the powers that be are free to do anything they want unopposed.

We have seen the effects of unilateralism in the recent past.

I say that in a geopolitical sense.

Imagine that unilateralism in a cultural, moral, and in the overall ideological realm. i.e secular, liberal democratic values being forced on others.

IMO Putin is of course a Russian nationalist.

I don't see him as evil or crazy or any of the dishonest caricatures propagated by Western media/governments.

And he is also a realist, who again may have made a mistake.

But upon assessing the realities of the situation I HIGHLY doubt he takes any action against Finland.

They will join NATO and nothing will happen.

The real issues Russia faces is how to handle the long game as you alluded to in your post.

 

[REhorror]

Terrible news. Finland is tricky enemy.

 

[tower9]

Definitely agree.

Here's the thing.

I see Russia as being provoked by the West.

To effectively neutralize it at worst or use it at best against the coming conflict against China.

Also, it's pretty apparent there is REAL hate between Putin and Western liberal imperialists.

Putin may have blundered in falling for the bait.

Not the first time a nation has taken Western bait and gotten decimated.

The argument that is being pushed now appears to be that is that there is a battle being waged between democratic and autocratic camps. (Please note how the US has been interacting with Bangladesh recently)

Observe leading Western news outlets and publications and the terms they are using.

China had better take notice.

Once distractions like the "acute threat" Russia poses are taken care of.....the West is coming for China.

And yes, although a lot of us live here in the West and enjoy all it has to offer.

You have to wonder, it is a good thing that there is no balance in world and the powers that be are free to do anything they want unopposed.

We have seen the effects of unilateralism in the recent past.

I say that in a geopolitical sense.

Imagine that unilateralism in a cultural, moral, and in the overall ideological realm. i.e secular, liberal democratic values being forced on others.

IMO Putin is of course a Russian nationalist.

I don't see him as evil or crazy or any of the dishonest caricatures propagated by Western media/governments.

And he is also a realist, who again may have made a mistake.

But upon assessing the realities of the situation I HIGHLY doubt he takes any action against Finland.

They will join NATO and nothing will happen.

The real issues Russia faces is how to handle the long game as you alluded to in your post.

Agreed.

And I also agree that Putin has been driven by emotional reasons rather than logical ones. I think Finland joining NATO is a foregone conclusion and there really isn't much Russia can do about it. Going into Ukraine was a strategic error for Russia and Russia would've gained more by posturing along the Ukrainian border and finalizing Nordstream 2 and maintaining the status quo, then going into Ukraine.

 

[nang2]

Terrible news. Finland is tricky enemy.

Terrible for Russians but they have shown that they are no longer strong so they have to suffer anyway.
Great for American politicians as now they have more influence.
Terrible for American taxpayers as now they need to shoulder more security burden for a new country.
Great for Finland as they can enjoy security free-ride on American taxpayers. If Latvia can enjoy it, why can't they?

 

[Muhammed45]

Russia is coming to terms with this development:

Russia says it would have to 'rebalance' if Finland and Sweden join NATO

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday that if Finland and Sweden joined NATO then Russia would have to "rebalance the situation" with its own measures.

www.reuters.com

Russia would possibly deploy nuclear weapons to Neighborhood of Finland and Sweden. Kaliningrad maybe?

 

[serenity]

Definitely agree.

Here's the thing.

I see Russia as being provoked by the West.

This is certainly at least partially true. At least a case of that saying it takes two to dance? If not mostly provocation from USA and intentional, engineered direction where they are the dominoes setter, then a case of Putin taking advantage of the situation to further some quite hidden goal at least hidden from most media that talk about the usual war narrative and motivation narratives e.g. resurrecting USSR. This comes to the point you mentioned later about hate between Putin and western neo liberal camp and the alleged blundering.

To effectively neutralize it at worst or use it at best against the coming conflict against China.

Also, it's pretty apparent there is REAL hate between Putin and Western liberal imperialists.

Putin may have blundered in falling for the bait.

Not the first time a nation has taken Western bait and gotten decimated.

The argument that is being pushed now appears to be that is that there is a battle being waged between democratic and autocratic camps.

It's impossible for us to know if Putin is the mastermind or the West. For that, it's impossible to say who blundered. We don't know Putin and Russia's real intentions if there are any beyond the already explored mainstream ones.

Observe leading Western news outlets and publications and the terms they are using.

China had better take notice.

Once distractions like the "acute threat" Russia poses are taken care of.....the West is coming for China.

The West has been going after China for over three decades. Sure they escalated in the last 10 years a lot more but they have done so much more between West and China than between Russia and West lol. On the surface of all this so we ignore any potential unknowns, Russia bit down on the first pressure.

For example Ukraine is recognized by all including Russia to be a sovereign nation. Russia may or may not have good reasons for this (I won't go into it and this is not the purpose of the point I'm trying to make) but Russia said and showed with action that it is not going to tolerate even a blow to its influence. Okay they tried and maneuvered for a while during the Crimea drama start and 2013 when US and western influence into Ukraine really set off.

Taiwan however is a Chinese province. It is recognized by almost all as Chinese land. It was never an independent nation. Basically like Donald Trump splintering Texas off from the USA and forming a breakaway renegade province due to politics and then receiving Russian support and military arms. Even the US recognizes One China policy and PRC as rightful winner of Chinese Civil War and the rightful political leadership. However they support the right to self determination for the island and many nations do. I can see and understand that when it is sincere and of course in this case, also lots of geostrategic concerns on all ends too erode that sincerity.

Point is Ukraine to Russia is so far distant to Taiwan and China. If Russia was in the China position regarding Taiwan, it would have done everything and anything during the 1970s just to get it back. If China was in Russia's position on Ukraine, China would have sucked it up and said fine you go your way and let's still trade and all that like Taiwan island and Chinese mainland has done for most of the history since the civil war breakaway.

Russia is very ... assertive and willing to act. China is quite passive and calculating, gotta think everything through three times and then doubt everything.

Russia I don't know what they have plans for and more importantly what they know.

It seems if it was truly a real threat of Ukraine already having thoroughly been controlled by western hand, will eventually deploy nuclear weapons through either hosting or developing them and possibly also bioweapons, then Russia knowing intel on this acting is totally understandable on why they thought it must be done. Otherwise if it's a geostrategic calculus again on info we don't know, then perhaps. Again the Ukraine forces did attack Russians during that time but Russia also attacked Crimea and annexed it which brought this about as well. Innocents are innocents and should never be harmed and this is wrong but on the conversation of who started what, then I think Russia isn't entirely guiltless either on the first move to destabilize.

I am and want to be as neutral on this as possible. Speculation and conjecture I will ignore especially the propaganda on both sides. However it seems Russia has many angles and motivations, some from strength, some from weakness. All unknowns.

And yes, although a lot of us live here in the West and enjoy all it has to offer.

You have to wonder, it is a good thing that there is no balance in world and the powers that be are free to do anything they want unopposed.

We have seen the effects of unilateralism in the recent past.

IMO Putin is of course a Russian nationalist.

I don't see him as evil or crazy or any of the dishonest caricature propagated by Western media/governments.

All unknowns to be honest with you. These level of power struggles may be more than what's on the surface but could be as simple as that if not even simpler than mainstream speculations and media even.

And he is also a realist, who again may have made a mistake.

But upon assessing the realities of the situation I HIGHLY doubt he takes any action against Finland.

They will join NATO and nothing will happen.

The real issues are how to handle the long game as you alluded to in your post.

Yeah I don't think Russia has the conventional build up to do this against NATO. Which will of course involve NATO if Finland gets involved.

Oftentimes these big historic shifts are planned and coordinated even. It could be a case as simple as the simplest interpretation but again it's an unknown and a who knows... certainly Putin and parts of Russian leadership and some others in the West.

 

[Abdulaziz Al-Karimi]

Russia would possibly deploy nuclear weapons to Neighborhood of Finland and Sweden. Kaliningrad maybe?

It is fruitless all that as the gap entry from Finland will be occupied by NATO this will give him no other choice then to launch an offensive into Finland.. If NATO moves into Finland they will gain leverage on Russia and one Russia can't allow to give..

Even if Russia burns thru alot of resources and soldiers they will undertake it in order to give them a better positioning in the future which is to close the gap now

 

[serenity]

Terrible for Russians but they have shown that they are no longer strong so they have to suffer anyway.
Great for American politicians as now they have more influence.
Terrible for American taxpayers as now they need to shoulder more security burden for a new country.
Great for Finland as they can enjoy security free-ride on American taxpayers. If Latvia can enjoy it, why can't they?

Well 5000 nukes is some form of strength as well. Just because one is weak doesn't mean one has to suffer however it seems this cruel unequal world is often like that. We ought to hate it as all victims of such a nature ought to be.

Let's watch how this situation develops. This fog of war makes it hard to determine exactly the big picture even. The propaganda from everywhere has distorted the smaller specific details far too much. The war could end with Russia basically conquering land the size of UK or at least Belgium in addition to the land they annexed before.

And those who say Russia lost lots of men and material. This is true but that's like saying US lost lots of men and material in fighting Afghanistan, Iraq (twice), and Yugoslavia. To these countries at the top levels of government, they don't care. As long as it achieves some strategic goal. In US case with Afghanistan, the strategic goal wasn't even achieved. Now consider US loss in Vietnam and Korea where strategic goal in both were lost of eroded to half (Korean case) and losses of men and material monumentally greater than losses in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia.

 

[nang2]

Well 5000 nukes is some form of strength as well. Just because one is weak doesn't mean one has to suffer however it seems this cruel unequal world is often like that. We ought to hate it as all victims of such a nature ought to be.

Let's watch how this situation develops. This fog of war makes it hard to determine exactly the big picture even. The propaganda from everywhere has distorted the smaller specific details far too much. The war could end with Russia basically conquering land the size of UK or at least Belgium in addition to the land they annexed before.

And those who say Russia lost lots of men and material. This is true but that's like saying US lost lots of men and material in fighting Afghanistan, Iraq (twice), and Yugoslavia. To these countries at the top levels of government, they don't care. As long as it achieves some strategic goal. In US case with Afghanistan, the strategic goal wasn't even achieved. Now consider US loss in Vietnam and Korea where strategic goal in both were lost of eroded to half (Korean case) and losses of men and material monumentally greater than losses in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Yugoslavia.

I don't think those small countries feared Russia for its nuclear arsenal. They feared Russia for its conventional war machine, which it has successfully used quite a few times on its neighbors, until now.

 

[lightning F57]

If joining Nato means that Russian conventional forces are hand tied then so be it. But creating bad relations with your neighbours leaves endless low intensity conflicts and tensions, case in point Palestine and Kashmir. This drains resource, development and money. If Finland is willing to become a front line state and endure this it's their choice.