senheiser
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Future Superpowers – The World To 2100 | Anatoly Karlin
By the second half the century, climate change will start to dominate over everything else. The latest projections tend to lean towards the high end of the IPCCs 1-6C warming range for the next century (the scariest of them show that by 2300 most of the world outside the Arctic may become downright lethal during summer). Warming of 4C is the point at which agriculture starts to not only experience difficulties but outright collapse throughout most of the equator and mid-latitudes.
[Map of global drought under aggregated runs of IPCC's models. Most of the US, southern Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America will be in an unprecedented mega-drought. Read more here.]
All the problems currently experienced by China and India with stagnant grain harvests will increase further, requiring very costly counter-measures. Now this is not to say that there will necessarily be mass famine and dieoff, as doomers like to predict. It is certainly a possibility, especially under the most severe warming scenarios, but growing food production in Russia, Canada, and even East Africa may make up the difference. In particular, China should be relatively safe, because by then it should be a developed country.
On the other hand, the Chinese state will have its hands full mitigating disaster after climate disaster. The spate of rebuilding after the flooding of New Orleans, which actually boosted US GDP, was one thing; when commercial metropolises like Shanghai are getting flooded and coastal property prices devaluing to nothing, it is economic and financial apocalypse.
Whats possible, then, is the following scenario. By the 2070′s, the Chinese state becomes so preoccupied with maintaining food stability, and the energy and mineral flows that enable industrial society in general, that the surplus resources and administrative capacity to do anything else diminish. This is not a new development in its history. For much of the 19th century, Qing China was the worlds biggest economy by GDP, even though Britain was becoming far more industrialized. This was because China was at its Malthusian limits; the population level was stable, but it was always on the edge of famine, and presided over by a government made weak by lack of taxable surpluses and unable to check the corruption and independence of its own public officials. The state was unable to defend itself, to modernize the country, or to guarantee its independence.
India is in a worse bind, and not just because it will likely remain less developed than China to that time. The Chinese, at least, have the reserve option of migrating some of their surplus population to Tibet (or East Africa, if they conquer it). India doesnt have that, and faces the unwelcome prospect of a further flood of excess population this time from a collapsing Pakistan (the Indus to run dry by late century, as Himalayan glaciers melt) and inundating Bangladesh.
A consequence is that states with far smaller populations and economies, but greater surplus resources will emerge as new Great Powers. Primarily, this means Russia, but Canada would also be in this category, as will Scandinavia, Alaska, and (in one or two more centuries) whoever settles or controls Greenland. By virtue of their control over most of the worlds remaining critical resources water (not only for food, but electricity); gas; coal; metals; whatevers left of oil they will wield unprecedented strategic power over the countries to the south.
Perhaps a colonial relationship will develop, in which the Arctic nations send resources and allow southern workers to farm their lands in exchange for selling off their industrial assets and eventually ceding political sovereignty. In the very long term, this will logically lead to the development of caste-based societies in Russia and Canada, as the sheer magnitude of climate refugees would mean that in any integration policy, it would be the indigenous inhabitants who would have to do most of the integrating (and hence politically impracticable).
By the end of the century a world of two Arctic superpowers, Russia and Canada?
. Our real estate market in west coast is experiencing a recent boom and even out hinterland a la eastern Canada is also growing to some degree so expect good things from us in the future. Also I would like to thank the thread opener for posting an excellent article with respect to Canadienne rise 
Though Canad will make a great Superpower . I support Canada and Russia , cheers 
Look, don't get me wrong. I love Canada. I think Canada is a beautiful country with a great people who are as nice as can be, but Canada is a vast country with a comparability small population which exists on a fairly narrow geographic strip just north of the USA border. Canada's economy and vitality exist because of it's proximity to the US. That is not to say that Canada is not productive, but Canada will not be an independent "super-power" because it's economy is essentially an annex of the USA's economy. They practically function as one economy, and western Canadians often feel more affinity for the American west than for the eastern power centers of Canada. When they go on vacation, they don't go east, they go to California which is as familiar to them as where their from. The cultures are so similar, it's hard to point out any big differences. And let's not even go into Quebec! But as an example of how close that relationship is, Canada and the US jointly defend our two landmasses. At any given moment, the military officer in charge of defending Washington D.C., is a Royal Canadian Air Force officer just as the guy in charge of defending Ottawa might be a USAF general.
Oh man I pray to God that I will see Canada peak in this lifetime to a superpower status, population is already 38 million this year. 
