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The outbreak started in that city so it will get will the fallout, getting other cities affected just means the officials screwed up.
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Let's hope it doesn't end up being worse or similar than the epicenter.The outbreak started in that city so it will get will the fallout, getting other cities affected just means the officials screwed up.
All 2019-nCoV infected patients reported to Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention up to 26 January 2020 were included for analysis.
Disease and death incidence were compared between demographic groups and baseline conditions.
Case fatality rates (CFRs) and the basic reproductive number R0 was estimated with a transmission model.
As of 26 January 2020, a total of 8866 patients including 4021 (45.35%) laboratory confirmed patients were reported from 30 provinces.
Nearly half of the patients were aged 50 years or older (47.7%).
There was a clear gender difference in incidence with 0.31 (male) vs. 0.27 (female) per 100,000 people (P<0.001).
The median incubation period was 4.75 (interquartile range: 3.0-7.2) days.
About 25.5%, 69.9% and 4.5% patients were diagnosed with severe pneumonia, mild pneumonia,
and non-pneumonia, respectively.
The overall CFR was estimated be 3.06% (95% CI 2.02-4.59%), but male patients, ≥60 years old, baseline diagnosis of severe pneumonia and delay in diagnosis were associated with substantially elevated CFR.
The R0 was estimated to be 3.77 (95% CI 3.51-4.05), ranging 2.23-4.82 in sensitivity analyses varying the incubation and infectious periods.
Compared with SARS-CoV, 2019-nCoV had comparable transmissibility and lower CFR.
Our findings based on individual-level surveillance data emphasize the importance of early detection of elderly patients, particularly males, before symptoms progress to severe pneumonia.
Our estimate for R0, 3.77, is higher than recently published estimates.
An estimate of R0=2.0 based on 425 early reported patients is likely an underestimation given the serious delay in case confirmation during the early phase.
Another estimate of R0=2.7 was also based on surveillance data, but the methodology was different.
Our method considers right censoring of infections who might not have developed symptoms by the end of the study period, which is important given the ongoing increasing trend of the epidemic.
In addition, our analysis distinguished patients living and diagnosed within Wuhan from those Wuhan residents who were diagnosed outside Wuhan, a major source of exporting the disease to other parts of China.
The transmissibility of 2019-nCoV is comparable to that of SARS-CoV in the range of 2.9-3.324 and much higher than that of MERS-CoV.
Both 2019-nCoV and SARS-CoV resulted from occasional spill-over from non-specific intermediate host mammals, whereas MERS-CoV has a clear and constant animal reservoir.
We estimated the overall adjusted CFR to be 3.06% for the 2019-nCoV, which is lower than those of SARS-CoV (9.2%) and MERS-CoV (34.4%).
The limited number of discharges so far has impeded the use of any advanced method such as the competing risk model for estimating CFR.
We restricted our analyses to patients with symptom onset at least 10 days before 26 January 2020 to reduce bias from unresolved final clinical outcomes.
However, another serious source of bias is under-detection and under-reporting of mild cases especially those without pneumonia (4.5% in our data), which in turn could have substantially inflated the overall CFR estimate.
Therefore, our estimate should be treated as an upper bound.
The shortened delay from symptom onset to diagnosis over the epidemic course might have helped reducing CFR.
Early diagnosis of elderly patients, especially males, with fever or respiratory symptoms before they progress to severe pneumonia is thus an important target for preventing fatal outcomes.
wait what ? china have cure of the virus ? how ? and whats the cure ? do WHO knows about cure ? no one is sharing that whats the treatment is giving for cure.. can someone explain plz..
Let's hope it doesn't end up being worse or similar than the epicenter.
But with More Towns/District being newly lockdown, like Zhangwan District in Shiyan today... ppl can only assume that things aren't going well.
Fake news, rumours, mis-information and being unfamiliar to new virus spread fears and panic, and thus people act irrationally.I think the Chinese government outside of Hubei is just overreacting.
Fake news, rumours, mis-information and being unfamiliar to new virus spread fears and panic, and thus people act irrationally.
Truth is in China the published annual mortality rate is 7.11 per thousand, or around 9,800,000 Chinese citizens die of various deceases and traffic accidents every year, or no less than 26,000 people died everyday mainly due to chronic deceases other than Covid-19.
You guys are basing your "Opinion" on a void "Data"...Exactly, I wrote the exact same thing on another forum as well. 260K people die of traffic accident in China every year, or 700 people everyday. Should we start banning cars? Maybe this locking down of cities actually saved more people from traffic fatalities than the virus itself.
The cost of locking down of multiple cities outside of Hubei is too high and simply isn't sustainable to carry on for months. I think it's an overreaction due to previous underreaction. 矫枉过正。
It's not just monetary cost we're talking about but many other unknown social cost (including lives) as well, due to the butterfly effect.
Apparently the blood of those who have recovered has been effective in fighting the virus among those in critical condition and their condition have improved significantly after 12-24 hours of treatment.
http://www.bjnews.com.cn/finance/2020/02/13/689058.html
http://www.chinanews.com/sh/2020/02-14/9090534.shtml
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Blood donation request among those who recovered.
Must be from one of those Japanese that return from Wuhan earlier and than they self contained themselves at home.View attachment 605533
Health ministry reports first death related to COVID-19 in Japan
KYODO, STAFF REPORT
The health ministry announced Thursday that a Japanese woman in her 80s who tested positive for COVID-19 has died, the first death in Japan related to the novel coronavirus.
Heath minister Katsunobu Kato said the woman was confirmed to have been infected after death. Kato added that she has no relation to Hubei province in China where the virus outbreak originated.
According to NHK, the woman was diagnosed with pneumonia Feb. 1. She died Thursday after her condition had deteriorated Wednesday.
Other media reports say that the authorities are still investigating the circumstances of her death and the COVID-19 infection. She was not a passenger of the Diamond Princess cruise ship that is currently quarantined in Yokohama.
Source: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/02/13/national/science-health/health-ministry-reports-first-death-related-covid-19-japan/