Rafale in storm clouds, Parrikar says IAF can make do with Sukhoi-30s

[Superboy]

Why not go for MiG-35? It's got AESA and more advanced than Rafale considering IAF already operates MiG-29.

Decades ??? 2020 is not even half decade away

It won't even fly by 2020 IMO.

 

[PoKeMon]

For the first time since January 31, 2012, when the French Rafale fighter was chosen as the future medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for the Indian Air Force (IAF), it has been officially admitted that there are serious problems in negotiating the purchase with the French vendor, Dassault. the Indian Business Standard.reports.
Speaking to the media on Tuesday evening, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said there were “complications” in the negotiations, already on for almost three years, with the French side reluctant to meet commitments that IAF had specified in the tender. Parrikar mentioned that local production of Su-30 MKI by HAL would be adequate for the Indian Air Force (IAF) in case India will not procure the Rafale.

Past reports cited the reluctance of the French side to assume responsibility for the local production of 108 Rafales by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), mandated by the tender.

The IAF currently plans to have 272 Su-30MKI fighters by about 2018. HAL’s Nashik production line is building the fighter at $56 million each (358 crore Inr.), less than half the estimated cost of the Rafale.

In another reversal of previous ruling, Parrikar reiterated his intention to permit foreign arms companies to station “representatives or technical consultants” in India. India imposed a ban on ‘agents’ that after the Bofors gun scandal of 1987-88.

“Changes will be made to the Defence Procurement Policy. Company representatives will be allowed but commission, or percentage of profit for the deals will not be allowed.” Parrikar said, adding that representatives have to be registered with the ministry and remuneration shall be declared by the company.

According to The Tribune, a draft of the changed policy is ready and the final draft will be ready in the next few days and the process will be completed in 45 days. “The interests of the military would be taken care off” Parrikar declared. The Minister gave an example that Bharat Earth Movers Ltd (BEML) has been allowed to deal with the original Tatra company and not Tatra UK, which was banned following allegations of kick-backs.
India mulls switching from Rafale to Su30MKIs | Defense Update:

A temporary back up plan to counter dwindling squadron numbers.

 

[$@rJen]

Perhaps Parrikar himself being a defence minister trying make the french sweat badly so that they can accept indian terms???!!!

 

[PakGuns]

A temporary back up plan to counter dwindling squadron numbers.

I'm unsure of why did India go for Rafael if su-30 mki was the substitute? And is already available in home-made IAF configuration...? I mean seriously is su-30 mki a substitute??

 

[punit]

Decades ??? 2020 is not even half decade away

wait and watch!

 

[SrNair]

I'm unsure of why did India go for Rafael if su-30 mki was the substitute? And is already available in home-made IAF configuration...? I mean seriously is su-30 mki a substitute??

Bro,
there is two different aims in here.
First It is a warning to French .If they dont buy our terms we will chooseother options.Su 30 can be further modify under HAL.If it is a fake news then it is a pressure tactics.

Second It would be a necessary option to meet shortfalling of squadrons.


@sancho

 

[Trawllu]

rafale is heading for cancellations seriously

 

[PakGuns]

Bro,
there is two different aims in here.
First It is a warning to French .If they dont buy our terms we will chooseother options.Su 30 can be further modify under HAL.If it is a fake news then it is a pressure tactics.

Second It would be a necessary option to meet shortfalling of squadrons.


@sancho

In my opinion, modification looks more cost saving and better option, if mki is substitute than nothing was better option.... Though I'm also assuming its just a tactic to move further in negotiations...your guys are good in negotiations somewhat like aunty g buying phal froot from pheriwala .... But your's taking too much time...

 

[Trawllu]

In my opinion, modification looks more cost saving and better option, if mki is substitute than nothing was better option.... Though I'm also assuming its just a tactic to move further in negotiations...your guys are good in negotiations somewhat like aunty g buying phal froot from pheriwala .... But your's taking too much time...

no cancellation is a better option

buy Super Su30MKI

invest in LCA AMCA PAKFA

 

[Abingdonboy]

They have got options and probably IAF is also of the view that paying so much and tolerating French "nakhras" is not worth it. SU-30+LCA-II may not equal Rafale in capabilities but then they should be enough for now.

I shall reiterate why progressing with the Rafale deal now is the ONLY viable option available to the MoD now:

The Rafale is vital- simple as that. There is no (VIABLE) alternative at this point considering by 2022 the IAF (without the MMRCA) would be facing something like a 7-10 SQD shortfall and this is the deadline we all need to keep in mind when looking at this entity issue.

- More MKIs? The MKI is absurdly expensive to fly and maintain and is the top end of the IAF's combat doctrine, it needs to be complimented by smaller, lighter and more economical fighters. Not to mention the timescales for delivery, is HAL going to ramp up production? Unlikely as they want/need to shift their MKI production lines to the FGFA by the end of this decade.

-LCAs as an alternative? The LCA is in no way as capable as the Rafale so inherently the IAF would be disadvantaged in terms of its overall combat capabilities but let's just take this as read. The main issue here is the timescales one is looking at for induction, the LCA Mk.1 is still not at FOC standard yet and will only have 1 SQD in service by 2016, 2 by 2017 and then the Mk.2 has to take over and (at best) one can hope for 1 SQD of LCA Mk.2s by 2021-2 as the Mk.2 is the LCA the IAF now wants and it is unwilling to induct more than 2 SQDs of Mk.1s. 3-4 SQDs (at best) of LCAs (Mk.1 and 2) by 2022 isn't going to take much out of the shortfall the IAF WILL be facing in SQD strength. By 2022 there should be an additional 4-5 SQDs of MMRCA in service that will dramatically soften the blow to the IAF when those MiG-21s and 27s are all gone by 2019-20.

-The reintroduction of a relegated bidder (EFT, Gripen, F/A-18 E/F)? This is the most remote scenario despite what the journos out there on their payroll would like to spin. Firstly the only viable bidder for this could be the EFT as it was the only a/c other than the Rafale found to meet the technical criteria of the IAF's exhaustive requirements. Looking purely at the EFT, if the Rafale is criticised for its high costs and it is the L1 entrant then the L2 bidder is going to be more expensive. Then there is the fact the Rafale is the superior machine and lastly, and most importantly, there is the issue that even if talks were started today it would take 2-3 years to get to the same point (that the MoD is with Dassualt) in terms of deal progression so first inductions would only begin in 2019/20 and by that time the window of opportunity would be shut and the shortfall in the IAF's SQD very much critical. (DM has ruled this option out himself)

Some may say that my analysis is simple focusing on the numbers game but this is the point- unless you, the IAF, the GoI or India can stomach a 7-10 (at best) SQD shortfall in the MINIMUM sanctioned strength of the IAF by 2022 then the MMRCA is a MUST no two ways about it anymore- the situation is such that the IAF has got itself into such a position but that is another discussion.

This is talking purely from a AF capability perspective, the MMRCA let's not forget was about more than just fighters. It was/is also about the industrial benefits and scrapping the Rafale for any of the above alternatives would be a major set back for India's aviation industry.

Any ideas on the cost per flight hour for the MKIs?

AFAIK it is around the $22-26,000 mark (the Rafale's cost per hour is pretty much half that).

25 Billion USD is a lot of Money

See this is a basic misconception that too many have been made to believe. The deal is NOT worth $25 Billion, nowhere near it. The only official price we have had in the past 12 months has been that this deal is worth around $15-16 BN that is quite reasonable for 126 airframes, setting up the requisite infrastructure in India, the high levels of ToT involved in this deal, spares and training.

Any figure you hear over $15-16 Billion is WRONG, stop believing it is this much. By believing the cost is this high someone is certainly benefiting (Saab and EFT consortium would be my suspects).This is a case of blatant disinformation.



It is an utter myth that the MKI is cheaper than the Rafale, it is about the same to procure now (see the latest batch of 42 the IAF ordered- they cost around $80-90 million each) but are FAR more expensive to fly and maintain over their service lives. Using unit costs alone is misleading and higgly irresponsible and it is for this reason the IAF employed the LIFE CYCLE COSTING method for the MMRCA. Having another 200 MKIs would obliterate the IAF's budgets for the next decade and beyond.

Su-30MKI's do not provide PAF's upgraded, and super lethal, F-16s block 50/52s armed with best BVRs in the world...

PAF's F-16s can locate and track Su-30s with ease and can confront them...

Rafale's EW suit and superior avionics would really give PAF F-16s a run for their money...

You could not be more wrong. It is your F-16s that are up against it with the larger numbers of superior MKIs but that is for another thread....

 

[Superboy]

This is what happens when you try to buy something from people who wave white flags at the first sight of danger. Russia learned its lesson with Mistral. Taiwan learned its lesson with Mirage 2000.

 

[Rajput_Pakistani]

If this deal is cancelled, this could be the biggest relief for PAF and Pakistan. Not only in so many indirect benefits, but it could open up again that lost path, through which Pakistan could induct Western Avionics to JF17.

 

[Abingdonboy]

I was already going to rail against these stupid Indian journos for twisting the DM's words like this and then i saw who wrote this, typical Mr Shukla......

 

[Gandhi follower]

That will be a great decision. Indecisiveness causing us huge losses. Buy super su30mki and invest in Tejas by bringing SAAB in.

 

[Matrixx]

it is not about modification but buy new ones