Featured Project Azm: Pakistan's Ambitious Quest to Develop 5th Generation Military Technologies.

[JamD]

Actually, the issue of suspicion about AZM NGF and its success is the result of update or some news in this regard. Since, no one had any idea or info, we discuss like as if we don't even know what to produce. Let a news or a possible leak comes in, we will have a next goal to be disappointed. The cycle continues though.

On delay part, even if it's about corruption, the same wouldn't long last.

Unfortunately, I am privy to more than what I disclose here on Azm's NGF. I could be a victim of very coordinated misinformation but what are the odds of that?

The issue isn't corruption. At least I don't think so. It's overestimating our ability. This leads to:
1. spending time and money and things that return diddly squat
2. Prevention of spending time and money on things that we should be working on and would be great at

@SQ8 has also pointed out this (very rampant) misallocation of resources in an earlier post. I fear the same is going on here.

Let me just say one more thing. The effort behind Azm NGF is "half-assed". Yes we have invested time and money into attempting to develop our own NGF. And this is significant both in terms of time and money. However, the planners have grossly underestimated the time, effort, money and expertises that would actually be needed. Just to give you a rough idea of what I'm talking about that you can probably verify using your own contacts: Ask around how many people are working under Project Azm's NGF. Then do a google search on how many people are working under TAI-TFX. And we even have doubts about TFX coming to fruition.

 

[Goenitz]

We need to do many more carefully selected projects. Projects should be:
1. Relatively cheap to do
2. Fill a niche somewhere
3. DO NOT need to be glamorous like FGFA or whatever. Think a very accurate attitude control thruster design or something.

I meant these but not sure who can select and assign such things. So, I suggested to learn software skills, verify paper results using simulation/cheap experiments etc so that the workforce remains sharp and up to date. It also gives them confidence.

The hp, initially at least, allowed its employees to use their R&D lab to fix any broken home appliance of employees. As employees had personal interest in that, so they learnt/test different things. Hence, the workforce remained in technology loop and busy also.

Really, Still CS.. I meant there they used to play CS in Suparco computer labs, as they had no fund and no project.

 

[CriticalThought]

Actually, the issue of suspicion about AZM NGF and its success is the result of update or some news in this regard. Since, no one had any idea or info, we discuss like as if we don't even know what to produce. Let a news or a possible leak comes in, we will have a next goal to be disappointed. The cycle continues though.

On delay part, even if it's about corruption, the same wouldn't long last.

In the past few years, PAC has subtly given hints on two fronts: machining/milling workshop people repeatedly say we are ready for NGF, and they show some type of design work going on. What happened this year is that they have been extremely hush-hush even about Block 3, and no updates about design of NGF. But interestingly, what no one seems to have noticed, the machining/milling guys repeated their stance from earlier years - we are ready for NGF.

There are many ways to interpret this. But I am still remaining positive. What will come as a shock to me is if they import J-10s wholesale from China. That will be most shocking.

Worrisome but, how do you rate the positive outcome and dealing with the threat at hand? You may have some idea and I am sure if that




Again, how do you see or suggest the right steering if situation? I know there's been lack of thinking out of the box or not to continue with yes sir mentality but, the yes sir comes under military domain. In short, for development and progress, may be it needs to be a private entity style administration. So what if I say that a lot has been changing in this area as well. Once being fried by spposedly feudalism but finally made out of it and even made many to think beyond of afsar shahi.

To summarize what @SQ8 is saying, you need to give program management into better hands.

We need to do many more carefully selected projects. Projects should be:
1. Relatively cheap to do
2. Fill a niche somewhere
3. DO NOT need to be glamorous like FGFA or whatever. Think a very accurate attitude control thruster design or something.
4. Verifiable - you can say if it succeeded or not with someone responsible for success or failure. With huge nebulous programs like FGFA who is really responsible? Is joining TFX a failure or success? Impossible to quantify success here, only decades later we will realize oh we should've used this money elsewhere.

Numerous, smaller, verifiable projects will:
1. Build capacity
2. Retain capacity
3. Be accountable

You need to have the right leadership and they need to make the right institution building decisions.

Thank you. You are repeating what I have been saying for a long time.

 

[CriticalThought]

Just to give you a rough idea of what I'm talking about that you can probably verify using your own contacts: Ask around how many people are working under Project Azm's NGF. Then do a google search on how many people are working under TAI-TFX. And we even have doubts about TFX coming to fruition.

Disagree vehemently here. Let us not make 'number of people working on a project' the metric of success. Because if your words somehow end up at the right table and strike a chord, we will see a huge influx of useless hiring. Please, please don't go there. Brilliant work can be achieved by a small number of people. Increase human resource according to development curve of the human resource, not to fulfill some man-years estimates.

 

[JamD]

Disagree vehemently here. Let us not make 'number of people working on a project' the metric of success. Because if your words somehow end up at the right table and strike a chord, we will see a huge influx of useless hiring. Please, please don't go there. Brilliant work can be achieved by a small number of people. Increase human resource according to development curve of the human resource, not to fulfill some man-years estimates.

I don't disagree with the point you are making. Case in point SUPARCO. Of course you can hire 10000 people and make a Pakistan Steel Mills. All of the worlds resources won't help you if you're just out for corruption.

However, the fact remains that 100 people will not design a FGFA for you, especially when none of them have any prior experience doing so.

 

[CriticalThought]

I don't disagree with the point you are making. Case in point SUPARCO. Of course you can hire 10000 people and make a Pakistan Steel Mills. All of the worlds resources won't help you if you're just out for corruption.

However, the fact remains that 100 people will not design a FGFA for you, especially when none of them have any prior experience doing so.

Well, 10000 people will also not design an FGFA for you if they don't have any prior experience.

As a matter of fact, in this case, you need 20 people instead of 10000 because of one major reason: disagreements. Since nobody knows anything, there are going to be huge disagreements. And it is easier to get 20 people to agree, rather than 10000.

 

[JamD]

Well, 10000 people will also not design an FGFA for you if they don't have any prior experience.

As a matter of fact, in this case, you need 20 people instead of 10000 because of one major reason: disagreements. Since nobody knows anything, there are going to be huge disagreements. And it is easier to get 20 people to agree, rather than 10000.

You just lost me friend lol.

 

[ProudPak]

I sit here here and laugh at the self made negative experts.. the same expert who's said jf17 wasn't achievable because bla bla bla bla.

Same sh1t is being peddled again..why ??? Because nothing is being said about azm. So the geniuses think the nation is asleep. Like anyone here has ever contributed anything to the aerospace sector of Pakistan. This iincludes myself even though I have been in the aerospace industry. Just not in Pakistan.

No news = sleeping PAF and Progect Azm...genius

 

[CriticalThought]

You just lost me friend lol.

The Mythical Man Month. Classic text on mismanagement in software projects. It shoots down the idea that adding more people to a project increases productivity. And it identifies an exponential explosion in communication requirements as the root cause.

Communication has two parts: training new recruits in what has already been achieved, and communication between people once they are up an running with the project.

There are only so many people you can throw into the aerodynamic design until the number of people becomes a bottleneck to progress.

There are only so many people you can throw into structural engineering until the number of people becomes a bottleneck to progress.

There are only so many people you can throw into creating/designing testing rigs until the number of people becomes a bottleneck to progress.

The ideal team size is between 5 and 7 for software projects. Let's be generous, let us create departments of 20 people. You still won't make it to 10000 employees, and you shouldn't.

 

[SQ8]

In the past few years, PAC has subtly given hints on two fronts: machining/milling workshop people repeatedly say we are ready for NGF, and they show some type of design work going on. What happened this year is that they have been extremely hush-hush even about Block 3, and no updates about design of NGF. But interestingly, what no one seems to have noticed, the machining/milling guys repeated their stance from earlier years - we are ready for NGF.

There are many ways to interpret this. But I am still remaining positive. What will come as a shock to me is if they import J-10s wholesale from China. That will be most shocking.


To summarize what @SQ8 is saying, you need to give program management into better hands.


Thank you. You are repeating what I have been saying for a long time.

Not just better but right hands -
Program management should be from guy who has a Project management experience with certification from 10 years or ideally Portfolio management certification (because AZM is multiple simultaneous projects each with their own project manager required). This should ideally be someone from Aerospace and there are Pakistanis currently overseas in those or very similar roles.

Each engineering team needs a manager who is a subject matter expert.. subject matter being

Modeling & simulation (different team with its SME)

Cockpit systems integration (different team with SME)

Hiring a ML guy who doesn’t have avionics or air warfare experience is fine - but putting him incharge of AI or AESA Signal processing isn’t.

 

[TheDarkKnight]

Not just better but right hands -
Program management should be from guy who has a Project management experience with certification from 10 years or ideally Portfolio management certification (because AZM is multiple simultaneous projects each with their own project manager required). This should ideally be someone from Aerospace and there are Pakistanis currently overseas in those or very similar roles.

How well do these roles will pay? There might be willing candidates, but one cant just live off patriotism - paycheck matters in the end.

 

[SQ8]

How well do these roles will pay? There might be willing candidates, but one cant just live off patriotism - paycheck matters in the end.

That is a good question -
Entry level Product managers can make $75-80k in US to portfolio managers going for 2-4 times depending upon experience.
Engineers usually start from the high $60s going to $130k before hitting management level and then it’s onwards.

You may not need to offer that - but you do need to offer 80% of it tax free along with good DHA or Bahria level housing as a minimum incentive.

Frankly, all college grads from Pakistan should have significantly higher pay than they get but then the society & economics are FUBAR but “hazaron khwaish aisi”

 

[The Eagle]

how many people are working under Project Azm's NGF.

Well at least, such number isn't in hundred but large. However, can't comment as a comparison to TAI-TFX given the nature of information. But, the number is good and am happy that it is undisclosed. We have gone into a different cycle of talent hunt this time.

 

[Goenitz]

You may not need to offer that - but you do need to offer 80% of it tax free along with good DHA or Bahria level housing as a minimum incentive.

Do you know Air Cdr Ilyas Mahmood Qureshi?
Anyway, he narrated that how KRL took care of its people when making our arsenals. The man greeted him was head of some lab. He was not highly educated but highly trained. In fact he was still doing technical work in the lab. Plus he was very humble and simple. He promoted on skill and seniority basis.

So he told that HR ideas was "give us your youth, time and efforts, and we will take care of your housing, health, children's education etc". It is somewhat communist idea but it worked.

@JamD
I was just highlighting that workforce shouldn't be idle. Some manager must develop training schedules, if there are not any project. As a student I could take many courses for my professional development but I did few: Risk assessment, Short Python course, Health and safety, PGR in research practices, PGR in Learning and teaching, Work Ethics, CATIA, Seminars/Symposium/Conferences etc.

Same for suparco employees. A good manager at least can design off project courses. Lets say the goal is vibration test bench. So he can develop short courses for linear algebra, MATLAB/Simulink, harmonics, NHV software like ANSYS, CAD software like NX Unigrapics, Production tech software like Polyflow, 3D printing, CAD/CAM.
He can narrow down papers on that, define objectives and let everyone replicate the steps.

So when funds come for the test bench, people at least have confidence and are prepared.

 

[The Eagle]

What will come as a shock to me is if they import J-10s wholesale from China. That will be most shocking.

In public domain, things might appears to be just that plain and simple. However, on other end, there's a totally different ball game. Having said that, if J-10C is coming, there is a strong and valid reason for that and above all, it isn't lack of NGF or something like that. Obviously, NGF isn't a short procuring thing. We do have AESA in Block-III and many other advance aspects as well but there is a tier like Mid-to-High for a transition period. The transition period to build such a bridge between 4 to 5th gen, will payoff after 10 or so years. Whether Block 72 viper or J-10C, the requirement arose given the weight class gape and so the 13 years cycle for NGF.