Hamartia Antidote
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http://www.extremetech.com/computin...el-since-2007-analysts-hope-for-2016-recovery
PC sales fall to lowest level since 2007, analysts hope for 2016 recovery
2015 was another year of bad news for the PC market, with sales falling significantly compared with 2014. That’s the conclusion from multiple analyses, and there’s only a modest prediction of near-term recovery.
According to Gartner, PC sales in the fourth quarter fell to 75.7 million units, down 8.3% from Q4 2014. Total shipments in 2015 were 288.7 million units, an 8% decline from 2014. IDC reports that total shipments in Q4 were 71.9 million, total 2015 sales were south of 300 million for the first time since 2008, and the decline year-on-year was larger, at 9.8%.
The PC market hit its Zenith in 2011, with a total of 352.8 million units shipped that year. In the four years since, PC sales have fallen by nearly 20% — an enormous decline for an industry that had previously enjoyed decades of growth.
As for the cause, the above image makes the link in stark terms. As sales of iPads, iPhones, and Android devices exploded, the PC market began to shrink rapidly. (Android devices aren’t shown above, but smartphones and tablets began to take off in this period.)
Image courtesy of IDC
Thus far, most market research has suggested that people aren’t dumping PCs, but they aren’t upgrading them very often, either. Sales of every vendor fell, save for Apple, which eked out a modest 2.8% gain. Some, like Palmer Lucky of Oculus, have argued that technologies like VR could revolutionize the PC industry and push people back towards the platform while simultaneously giving them a reason to upgrade.
The latest decline has been blamed on Microsoft’s free Windows 10 upgrade, and IDC expects that sales will pick up this year as businesses begin migrating to Windows 10. The iPad Pro may have siphoned off some sales (it’s not clear), and even sales in the Asia-Pacific region declined, after years of growth.
Whether PC sales in the consumer market will begin recovering is a very open question. We’ve heard rumors that the smartphone market is slowing down, even for Apple. In theory, that could mean consumers turn back to PCs and begin making upgrades on 4-6 year-old hardware. It might also mean that consumers simply don’t upgrade their hardware, and opt instead for a high-end modern tablet with a Bluetooth keyboard.
After years of decline, I’m skeptical that we’re about to see a major uptick. Business upgrades will drive sales and might prevent a further drop for 12-36 months, but if consumers don’t hop back on the PC-buying bandwagon, it won’t be enough to stabilize sales long-term. As someone who is still computing on a 2011-era CPU (I’ve upgraded the GPU several times), I’m not sure if Intel or AMD will field a product compelling enough to justify an upgrade from Sandy Bridge-E. Over the past four years, as we’ve met with companies like Intel and AMD, their marketing presentations have moved from emphasizing a 2-3 year upgrade cycle, to a 5-8 year upgrade cycle. At some point, the PC industry will have to face the fact that many users may simply never upgrade.
PC sales fall to lowest level since 2007, analysts hope for 2016 recovery
2015 was another year of bad news for the PC market, with sales falling significantly compared with 2014. That’s the conclusion from multiple analyses, and there’s only a modest prediction of near-term recovery.
According to Gartner, PC sales in the fourth quarter fell to 75.7 million units, down 8.3% from Q4 2014. Total shipments in 2015 were 288.7 million units, an 8% decline from 2014. IDC reports that total shipments in Q4 were 71.9 million, total 2015 sales were south of 300 million for the first time since 2008, and the decline year-on-year was larger, at 9.8%.
The PC market hit its Zenith in 2011, with a total of 352.8 million units shipped that year. In the four years since, PC sales have fallen by nearly 20% — an enormous decline for an industry that had previously enjoyed decades of growth.
As for the cause, the above image makes the link in stark terms. As sales of iPads, iPhones, and Android devices exploded, the PC market began to shrink rapidly. (Android devices aren’t shown above, but smartphones and tablets began to take off in this period.)
Image courtesy of IDC
Thus far, most market research has suggested that people aren’t dumping PCs, but they aren’t upgrading them very often, either. Sales of every vendor fell, save for Apple, which eked out a modest 2.8% gain. Some, like Palmer Lucky of Oculus, have argued that technologies like VR could revolutionize the PC industry and push people back towards the platform while simultaneously giving them a reason to upgrade.
The latest decline has been blamed on Microsoft’s free Windows 10 upgrade, and IDC expects that sales will pick up this year as businesses begin migrating to Windows 10. The iPad Pro may have siphoned off some sales (it’s not clear), and even sales in the Asia-Pacific region declined, after years of growth.
Whether PC sales in the consumer market will begin recovering is a very open question. We’ve heard rumors that the smartphone market is slowing down, even for Apple. In theory, that could mean consumers turn back to PCs and begin making upgrades on 4-6 year-old hardware. It might also mean that consumers simply don’t upgrade their hardware, and opt instead for a high-end modern tablet with a Bluetooth keyboard.
After years of decline, I’m skeptical that we’re about to see a major uptick. Business upgrades will drive sales and might prevent a further drop for 12-36 months, but if consumers don’t hop back on the PC-buying bandwagon, it won’t be enough to stabilize sales long-term. As someone who is still computing on a 2011-era CPU (I’ve upgraded the GPU several times), I’m not sure if Intel or AMD will field a product compelling enough to justify an upgrade from Sandy Bridge-E. Over the past four years, as we’ve met with companies like Intel and AMD, their marketing presentations have moved from emphasizing a 2-3 year upgrade cycle, to a 5-8 year upgrade cycle. At some point, the PC industry will have to face the fact that many users may simply never upgrade.
than the KingDian. also the speed is kinda irrelevant to me since my motherboard only supports Sata II. so any modern SSD will hit the 300 MB/s limit, which is fine with me since that still blows away what my main HDD and backup HDD are benchmarking, 
