Pakistan's Submarine Procurement

[Marshal]

Hi...Jliu...
question here.....
What are the chances that India will pick U214?????

 

[fatman17]

It's my job to be informed.

All I have told you is OSINT. No "insider information" whatsoever on public forums. My insight into this may be wrong but given all the indications that I have listed I am rarely wrong on situations such as these.

WoW! the arrogance of it all.

 

[Jliu]

WoW! the arrogance of it all.

I'm only qualified to discuss my area of expertise where I have particular knowledge which is why you don't see me posting in the airforce or army forums.

From somebody who doesn't understand the field at all, you give one sentence answers without evidence to back up your claim on a military related forum and you expect us to believe you?

That to me is supreme arrogance.

 

[Jliu]

Hi...Jliu...
question here.....
What are the chances that India will pick U214?????

That particular chance is very high. You can refer to my numerous posts on this in the Indian Sub Tender in the Indian Defence section as to the particulars.

 

[Always Neutral]

That particular chance is very high. You can refer to my numerous posts on this in the Indian Sub Tender in the Indian Defence section as to the particulars.

Hey Jliu,

Good to see your posts. You know your business and thats good.

Just a query. What happened about the submarine rescue project of the Indian Navy ?

Did they buy from the canadian firm ?

Regards

 

[Munir]

That particular chance is very high. You can refer to my numerous posts on this in the Indian Sub Tender in the Indian Defence section as to the particulars.

You can quote that LCA is 5th generation. You can quote a lot more then that. Indians have the habbit of ordering everything but there is a reality that they can do (if that is the case and I doubt that) and if they ever get the deal. We have seen Hawk purchase... They crashed the plane and start blaiming others. We have seen MKI and we have seen problems in getting spare parts. We have seen a lot more but I rather see real documented request from official parties then numerouss posts from Indians. Which did say that JF17 was a paperplane... And we know the reality is terrible different. So... Is this an uncle story or will we see some facts.

 

[Jliu]

You can quote that LCA is 5th generation. You can quote a lot more then that. Indians have the habbit of ordering everything but there is a reality that they can do (if that is the case and I doubt that) and if they ever get the deal. We have seen Hawk purchase... They crashed the plane and start blaiming others. We have seen MKI and we have seen problems in getting spare parts. We have seen a lot more but I rather see real documented request from official parties then numerouss posts from Indians. Which did say that JF17 was a paperplane... And we know the reality is terrible different. So... Is this an uncle story or will we see some facts.

If you havn't noticed already this is a submarine related thread and hence a naval one. Now where exactly have I "quoted" anything about the LCA or other questionable material that is debatable!?

I am merely sharing my insights as a defence professional on the processes and probablities of whatever purchases the PN will make next. Unlike you I have never said anything is set in stone or offered conjecture. I have only given informed probabilities given the present situation.

Get over it fanboy, I was consulting for the PN on systems analysis and TRADOC even before you hit puberty, so show some respect for those who have served their country and the PN before posting some irrelevant cr_ap that nobody-not least the Indians who you are denigrating have any respect for at all.

 

[Jliu]

Hey Jliu,

Good to see your posts. You know your business and thats good.

Just a query. What happened about the submarine rescue project of the Indian Navy ?

Did they buy from the canadian firm ?

Regards

Very good question. I'll attempt to get some info on that from my contacts but the gut feeling is yes.

However if not, the Indians will definitely have something worked out with the US, UK, Russians or us.

It's just bad etiquette at sea to refuse a rescue-the IN would readily assist a PN sub and vice versa.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Gentlemen,

Easy there.

Lets all please conduct this discourse in a respectful manner.

Jliu has raised some good points in his argument about why the PN may end up not getting the U214.

Jliu,

Correct me if I am wrong, but to summarize your points:

1. Indian and Israeli lobbying will prevent the U214 from being approved at the highest levels in Germany.

2. The expected Indian RFP means TKMS has a chance to bid for the larger Indian order, and may choose to ignore the Pakistani one in favor of that.

On the first point, while it is to be expected that India and Israel will lobby against the sale, I find the geo-political situation to be too volatile to come to any concrete conclusions regarding the success of such lobbying efforts.

On the second, assuming approval by the Pakistani legislature, would TKMS fore go a Pakistani order for 3-4 subs in lieu of a potential order from India, given the recent inordinate bureaucratic delays and snafu's associated with other Indian military procurement?

Also include the infrastructural bottlenecks in India, assuming India wants a large part of the contract to be completed at Indian shipyards, and does this not essentially mean that TKMS would lose out on a potential confirmed order for 3-4 SSK's against a possible IN sale at some point in the future?

I also understand that the PN has issued RFP's for 4 FFG's, with the Meko 200 being a possible contender, so a U214 sale to Pakistan does hold the potential for further contracts for TKMS, though obviously not as large as India's.

 

[Jliu]

Jliu,

Correct me if I am wrong, but to summarize your points:

1. Indian and Israeli lobbying will prevent the U214 from being approved at the highest levels in Germany.

2. The expected Indian RFP means TKMS has a chance to bid for the larger Indian order, and may choose to ignore the Pakistani one in favor of that.

Essentially the operational aspect is Babur integration on the U214. I also believe that given the "double trouble" of global inflation on the defence budget and the propensity of the army to grab the lion's share would put TKMS at a severe disadvantage in pricing as the PN is burdened with ever rising fuel costs and a lowered budget to keep all platforms operational compared to a French alternative.

On the first point, while it is to be expected that India and Israel will lobby against the sale, I find the geo-political situation to be too volatile to come to any concrete conclusions regarding the success of such lobbying efforts.

I would concur with you on the concrete conclusions until there is definite word but I would like to ask you if you believe or know that the PN would operate the same type of SSK as the Indians if the situation arises say the U214 or Scorpene?

On the second, assuming approval by the Pakistani legislature, would TKMS fore go a Pakistani order for 3-4 subs in lieu of a potential order from India, given the recent inordinate bureaucratic delays and snafu's associated with other Indian military procurement?

TKMS being a company would not forgo a Pakistani order if the terms are right: ie. no domestic construction, kit assembly only, strict limits on use and monitoring process to prevent leakage to China. However these kinds of commercial deals are subject to political considerations so it really is up to the German NSC to make the final decision.

To make an informed guess about the Indian tender you have to understand (or make an attempt before your brain explodes)the mind boggling Indian military procurement process. Generally for the Indian Navy the red taped procedure goes something like this from personal experience:

1. ID requirements (c.1yr)
2. Draw up procurement plans, finance and Tot agreements (2-5 yrs)
3. RFP (c.1yr)
4. Evaluation (c. 3yr)
5. Decision

That is ridiculously long so the Indian Navy typically cut corners, axe the evaluations and reduce the length of times on #2 (with the associated problems) simply to get their platforms in service. However when the Indian naval brass feel the need for "critical platforms" they will invoke a little known clause permitting them to allocate funds out of the budget for "national security" with the PM's blessing and override the red tape to get it over within 2-3 years. This process for the 6 next gen ssks began in June 2007 so this is my reason for expecting an RFP this or the next year. The Indian Navy can do this uniquely among all the other services because of the votes they command and their lobbying machine n Parliament that has somehow painted Submarines=nuclear deterrent=Indian national security to the point that some Indian MPs asked me on a Kilo tour for defence professionals "how many nuclear missiles can this fire at China?"

Also include the infrastructural bottlenecks in India, assuming India wants a large part of the contract to be completed at Indian shipyards, and does this not essentially mean that TKMS would lose out on a potential confirmed order for 3-4 SSK's against a possible IN sale at some point in the future?

At present only Mazagoan satisfies security protocols regarding ToT so what I'm guessing is that the Indians will transfer surface escort construction to other yards like L&T to free up Mazagoan or simply stop work on current projects to make way for the kit assembly/domestic production of the upcoming line of ssks. Indian ssk numbers are reaching critical levels so the IN WILL secure an order. However I cannot say at this point whether TKMS/German Gov is willing to forgo one order for another although I have my suspicions.

I also understand that the PN has issued RFP's for 4 FFG's, with the Meko 200 being a possible contender, so a U214 sale to Pakistan does hold the potential for further contracts for TKMS, though obviously not as large as India's.

TKMS does have a chance for a large naval package such as this but the French have consistently undercut them on price and in Pakistan's case they have certain contacts in your government while the Germans are the 'new kids on the block'. It really would not surprise me if the Senate inquiry/review of the U214 is politically motivated in order to swing any order towards DCN.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Thank you for the detailed response Jliu.

It really would not surprise me if the Senate inquiry/review of the U214 is politically motivated in order to swing any order towards DCN.

That has been the strong suspicion ever since the issue was raised.

On operating the same type of SSK as the Indians, I am afraid I do not know off hand what the PN's position on that issue would be.

 

[Always Neutral]

NTI: Submarine: Italy Exports

In 2005, Fincantieri entered a joint venture with Russia's Rubin Naval Design Bureau to develop a new diesel-electric submarine, the S 1000, using AIP technology. The Russian partner has indicated it will make available certain design aspects of the Amur class.[18] India was the first country to receive a briefing on the new submarine and is reportedly considering an Italian offer to build six boats for $3.5 billion as part of India's 30-year submarine plan, which calls for a diversified submarine fleet (India recently ordered six Scorpène boats from France).

 

[Always Neutral]

So it looks like the Indian Tender will be fought out by Germany, France, Italy and Russia.

 

[araz]

I would concur with you on the concrete conclusions until there is definite word but I would like to ask you if you believe or know that the PN would operate the same type of SSK as the Indians if the situation arises say the U214 or Scorpene?



Jliu
thank you for your informative and logical posts. I guess the question could be put to you in reverse order as well. Would IN like to operate a platform that PN already has?

the reason I ask is that PN has confirmed that it has a requirement for 3-4 platforms. If all goes well the order and subsequent delivery to Pakistan would start before India,given that In has not even initiated its proceedings. So would the reverse not hold true.
regards
Araz

PS: Something that you said puzzled me. I would understand if you did not wish to answer, but would appreciate a response.
In your response to Munir , you said that you were consulting for the PN on systems analysis. On another post you mentionedan Indian MP asking you a question on a Kilo tour for defence professionals. may i ask you in what capacity you were involved with both the navies?
Regards
Araz

 

[Always Neutral]

I would concur with you on the concrete conclusions until there is definite word but I would like to ask you if you believe or know that the PN would operate the same type of SSK as the Indians if the situation arises say the U214 or Scorpene?

Jliu
thank you for your informative and logical posts. I guese the question could be put to you in reverse order as well. Would IN like to operate a platform that PN already has?

the reason I ask is that PN has confirmed that it has a requirement for 3-4 platforms. If all goes well the order and subsequent delivery to Pakistan would start before India,given that In has n0ot even initiated its proceedings. So would the reverse not hold true.
regards
Araz

Why is the PN submarine plan stuck ? Lack of funds ? Did this budget cater for it ?

Regards