Pakistan’s Missing Market. Resuming trade with India is a chance to escape spiraling crises.

[Sliver]

Trade with China drove up imports, destroyed businesses, and increased smuggling. Trade with India will do much worse. Pakistani businessmen are stupid. They can't compete on the international level. Indian products will crush them and eliminate whatever local production exists.

Only trade with US and Europe has benefitted Pakistan as it exports more to them than it imports from them.

trade with India will atleast force chinese to compete with India and we get cheaper option from both to choose from- not a bad option?
either ways we are going to import, why not import from a cheaper source?
if energy/electricity is cheaper to import from India, perhaps that can make our industry a bit more competitive and hence take on more profits (textiles)

 

[A Voice of Reason]

Pakistan is only racing with Nigeria. Having everything to become a prosperous nation except good people.

It's sad. I have never had Nigerian Princes from Pakistan promise me the world via email.

 

[DabbuSardar]

Pakistan if they ever get a government that looks after Pakistanis, should mend with India.

Their is no irretrievably serious hate between them, and geographically and culturally India is their closest ally.

What is happening is Pakistan damaging itself with this hatred about religion, which inevitably will lead to it becoming subservient to India. The other option is normalize with India and become progressive, which automatically takes away power from extremists and it's military junta, either way India will win. I just wish Pakistanis win as well, a happy neighbor and neighborhood is always good.

 

[Silicon0000]

It's sad. I have never had Nigerian Princes from Pakistan promise me the world via email.

Well we do have some like Saba, Shazia and BISP etc although medium of contact is mobile instead of email.

 

[blain2]

Pakistan if they ever get a government that looks after Pakistanis, should mend with India.

Their is no irretrievably serious hate between them, and geographically and culturally India is their closest ally.

What is happening is Pakistan damaging itself with this hatred about religion, which inevitably will lead to it becoming subservient to India. The other option is normalize with India and become progressive, which automatically takes away power from extremists and it's military junta, either way India will win. I just wish Pakistanis win as well, a happy neighbor and neighborhood is always good.

DS,

We will never become subservient to India and I am not saying this just because it is some matter of pride for me. Pakistanis will eat grass but won't let that happen (iA). Also, keep in mind that what we did to ourselves in the 80s and 90s with, as you say hatred along religious lines etc., you are doing it today in India.

That aside, I agree with the other parts of your post that our enmity was/is not eternal. Prior to 1965, the people of the two countries would visit each other openly (actually even our Chiefs of Defence Staff/C-in-C's used to visit each other) and we had liberal policies on people-people and inter government contacts.

We have nothing doctrinal in our religion which teaches us hate of Hindus (we believe your religion is polytheist in nature, but so is Christianity as per our views, yet we get along with Christians so why not Hindus?). Our conflict is political and not religious (the division was on religious basis but Jinnah and Gandhi did not think it would end up in a 70 year war of the religions between the two) and this should be kept in mind. The same as the case of Palestinians and Israelis (take note I did not use Jews here for this very reason because the conflict is political in nature).

Ideally, we need to have a peace akin to what England and France arrived at after 100 years of many, many bloody wars and outright hate for each other's religious beliefs. I don't even think Pakistan and India have it that bad.

 

[DabbuSardar]

We will never become subservient to India

I apologize if that post put across that sentiment, it was not my intention nor the purpose.

You should never be that, what I did intend was pointing out the trajectory that my understanding puts as one of the possible outcomes.

The other preferred outcome to me and as I believe the majority is to be good progressive neighbors, this hatred gets us nowhere.

P.S.- I do love your detailed and nuanced response, if you give me some time I will respond to the rest of your statement soon.

Cheers!

 

[HerbertPervert]

trade with India will atleast force chinese to compete with India and we get cheaper option from both to choose from- not a bad option?
either ways we are going to import, why not import from a cheaper source?
if energy/electricity is cheaper to import from India, perhaps that can make our industry a bit more competitive and hence take on more profits (textiles)

IMO Pakistan has to shut down non-essential imports, leaving only oil, gas, and raw materials for exports.

It should use import substitution to ween itself off imports. If there are no existing local producers, than it can create local by forcing companies to produce local alternatives.

For example, US had mask and ventilator shortages during COVID, so they used executive authority to force US companies to produce them. Similar things were done in WWII to force automotive manufacturers to build tanks for the war.

Even electronics should be manufactured locally with a Pakistani business partner. Just like China used its huge population to lure companies like Apple to manufacturer inside China, Pakistan, with its large population, should do the same. Obviously Apple won't come, but other lower cost manufacturers will. As for iPhone imports, ban them. Why does a poor country need over a billion dollars of smartphone imports?

 

[A Voice of Reason]

Well we do have some like Saba, Shazia and BISP etc although medium of contact is mobile instead of email.

Good to see Pakistan keeping up with the very latest in technological trends!
Though I suspect these are "innovative" government programs rather than innovative online Princes.
Nevertheless, I shall wait with considerable anticipation for Nigeria to soon be left behind in the dust!

 

[CIA Mole]

only solution out of economic crisis is complete liberalization of the economy and annihilating the government

 

[A Voice of Reason]

IMO Pakistan has to shut down non-essential imports, leaving only oil, gas, and raw materials for exports.

Intersting comprehensive exceptions list. Do you know what happens when you don't import agricultural inputs?

What could possibly go wrong! Oh wait...

Just ask Sri Lanka which had a great idea to ban expensive synthetic fertilizer and pesticide imports.

In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong

A nationwide experiment is abandoned after producing only misery.

foreignpolicy.com

Sri Lanka’s organic farming disaster, explained

A shift to better farming practices is possible, but Sri Lanka’s abrupt switch to organics offers a bitter lesson in how to change food systems in a sustainable way.

www.vox.com

And I quote:

"Instead of fixing the crisis, however, the move only worsened it.

“The organic policy was implemented to sort of ameliorate an ongoing crisis … ironically, what it did was that it ended up exacerbating the crisis,” Ramakumar said.

The agrochemical ban caused rice production to drop 20 percent in the six months after it was implemented, causing a country that had been self-sufficient in rice production to spend $450 million on rice imports — much more than the $400 million that would’ve been saved by banning fertilizer imports.

The production of tea, Sri Lanka’s literal cash crop — it’s the country’s biggest export — fell by 18 percent. The government has had to spend hundreds of millions on subsidies and compensation to farmers in an effort to make up for the loss of productivity:

 

[Dalit]

we can stay as one country without hating anyone.
just as many other countries do.

this blind hatred towards India has been used time and again to push our masses to serving the feudal lords.
If trade with India will:
- reduce inflation
- increase our chances of creating industry organically (we cant compete with chinese industry, am pretty sure we can certainly compete with Indian industry)
then I am all for it.

my major concern is the amount of distrust we have built up. so long as trade means strictly no people tranferring to our side of the border, why should that be a problem?

as far as Kashmir is concerned - we can still have that dispute continuing I believe? its not like our army is ready to fight India any moment.

You can have as much trade as you like. Unless you don't fix tax evasion by the rich and corruption by the elite nothing will change. Your elites are bloodsucking leeches and their greed is never ending.

 

[HerbertPervert]

Intersting comprehensive exceptions list. Do you know what happens when you don't import agricultural inputs?

What could possibly go wrong! Oh wait...

Just ask Sri Lanka which had a great idea to ban expensive synthetic fertilizer and pesticide imports.

In Sri Lanka, Organic Farming Went Catastrophically Wrong

A nationwide experiment is abandoned after producing only misery.

foreignpolicy.com

Sri Lanka’s organic farming disaster, explained

A shift to better farming practices is possible, but Sri Lanka’s abrupt switch to organics offers a bitter lesson in how to change food systems in a sustainable way.

www.vox.com

And I quote:

"Instead of fixing the crisis, however, the move only worsened it.

“The organic policy was implemented to sort of ameliorate an ongoing crisis … ironically, what it did was that it ended up exacerbating the crisis,” Ramakumar said.

The agrochemical ban caused rice production to drop 20 percent in the six months after it was implemented, causing a country that had been self-sufficient in rice production to spend $450 million on rice imports — much more than the $400 million that would’ve been saved by banning fertilizer imports.

The production of tea, Sri Lanka’s literal cash crop — it’s the country’s biggest export — fell by 18 percent. The government has had to spend hundreds of millions on subsidies and compensation to farmers in an effort to make up for the loss of productivity:

Pesticide would be an essential import. Problem solved.

Fertilizer is already available through local producers. Perhaps Fauji Fertilizer can spin off Fauji Pesticides?

 

[nahtanbob]

IMO Pakistan has to shut down non-essential imports, leaving only oil, gas, and raw materials for exports.

It should use import substitution to ween itself off imports. If there are no existing local producers, than it can create local by forcing companies to produce local alternatives.

For example, US had mask and ventilator shortages during COVID, so they used executive authority to force US companies to produce them. Similar things were done in WWII to force automotive manufacturers to build tanks for the war.

Even electronics should be manufactured locally with a Pakistani business partner. Just like China used its huge population to lure companies like Apple to manufacturer inside China, Pakistan, with its large population, should do the same. Obviously Apple won't come, but other lower cost manufacturers will. As for iPhone imports, ban them. Why does a poor country need over a billion dollars of smartphone imports?

Carefully targeted import substitution would work if you have a smart population willing to learn and to work.

The elephant in the room is poor state of Pakistani population's education levels. You cannot fix this overnight. It will take generations to fix the mindset.

 

[DabbuSardar]

you are doing it today in India

I disagree with what is happening here, I am not doing anything to spread hate, but some are.

That aside, I agree with the other parts of your post that our enmity was/is not eternal. Prior to 1965, the people of the two countries would visit each other openly (actually even our Chiefs of Defence Staff/C-in-C's used to visit each other) and we had liberal policies on people-people and inter government contacts

I have been told about that here as well, personally and my circle of acquaintances would like to go back to it.

Our conflict is political and not religious

This is what very few seem to realize IMHO, religion is being used which is sad.

Ideally, we need to have a peace akin to what England and France arrived at after 100 years of many, many bloody wars and outright hate for each other's religious beliefs. I don't even think Pakistan and India have it that bad.

Agreed, maybe by the time 100 years pass by we all will have that peace.

I do hope that is in my lifetime and I can selfishly see a return to good times.

Thanks for your understanding

 

[A Voice of Reason]

Pesticide would be an essential import. Problem solved.

Fertilizer is already available through local producers. Perhaps Fauji Fertilizer can spin off Fauji Pesticides?

As I understand it, Pakistan imports nearly a billion USD of fertilizer because smugglers export the cheaper, locally produced stuff. I cannot imagine who gets a cut from all this smuggling.

So... Unless said smugglers are encouraged to cease and desist - yeah, right - your alternatives seem to be, logically, importation of the expensive stuff or importation of more food, somehow, or famine.

In my youth I lived in a country that still had the very last vestiges of food rationing. It was not pleasant. I have, thank The Almighty never lived in famine conditions and InShallah don't plan to. Best of luck!