Pakistan's Mirage 2000 Saga

[mhussain]

A few dozen M2Ks are probably not the price for freedom and equality If PAF doesn't get the F-16s, and the JF-17s & J-10Bs turn out to be duds, with a worst case scenario of teething problems, bugs, low quality, sanctions from China D), only then would there be a dire need for M2Ks for freedom and equality.

We could actually always get long and medium range SAMs, something that has a major gap in Pakistani defenses. Far quicker to buy, far cheaper to maintain and far less training in terms of time an monetary resources, specially in the long run. A dense network of layered SAMs are one of the USAF's biggest fears, not a handful of M2Ks or even FLANKERs. Combined with even a rudimentary air force, you can create very credible air defenses.

But in a really over the top worse case scenario, if China goes against Pakistan and there is even no one to sell Long range SAMs, then the only thing available to Pakistan would be to develop SAMs and to indegenize the JF-17 completely.

But then, what is the price of freedom and equality? Do we think freedom and equality can be bought with one particular weapon system? Or with any weapon system? In the end, freedom and equality can only be achieved via a revolution of the mind, were Pakistanis learn to go beyond typing up obtuse topics on the web and act to help their country. But alas, I see far too few Pakistanis doing something concrete to help their country and I see far too many typing away on their keyboards, veritable internet warriors ready to unleash their typing speeds at the gargantuan enemies of Pakistan that line of to receive their words of fire and wisdom, and via this fire and wisdom, die.. die.. die...

 

[qsaark]

This is the page 21 on this issue. Here I am summarizing the debate for those who have just jumped in or have not been following the posts from the beginning.


1. Yes, we should buy the 2nd hand M2K by all means
2. Yes, we should buy the 2nd hand M2K IF THE PRICE IS RIGHT
3. Yes, we should buy the 2nd hand M2K ONLY IF THERE IS NO OTHER OPTION
4. No, we should spend money on JF-17 instead
5. No, because the days of these birds are numbered
6. No, because it would only marginally improve the overall capability of PAF
7. No, because Indians also operate M2K

Those who belong to the group-1 give the following reasons: A war between Pakistan and a hostile country is just around the corner; PAF will enter into BVR era; PAF has been operating delta-wing fighters for almost 40 years now hence has plenty of experience; PAF pilots will take considerably less time to master these planes; Little modification of infrastructure will be needed to support these aircrafts; Relying on F-16 Block 52+ is way too risky; JF-17 is far from its operational preparedness; JF-17 will never be a replacement for a front line air-superiority fighter; FC-20 is only on the papers; M2K-5 and M2K-9 are considerably different than the IAF M2K-H.

Those who belong to the group-2 give the following reasons: All of the reasons which are given by the group-1; If the price is right.

Those who belong to group-3 give following reasons: USA does not supply us with F-16 Block 52+; JF-17 proves to be a failure; FC-20 never reaches Pakistan; China becomes our enemy.

Those who belong to group-4 give the following reasons: PAF should rely on home-grown or semi-home-grown technology for its defense; neither all the egg should be put in the Chinese basket nor in the US/European basket. JF-17 has lots of upgrade potential; Purchasing of 2nd hand M2K may be a bargain but maintenance will prove costly; M2K is very different from MIII/V, except for the manufacturer's name, every thing is different.

Those who belong to group-5 give the following reasons: M2K technology is old and few if any upgrades will be available in the future since France has already ended its production line.

Those who belong to the group-6 give the following reasons: M2K might not come until 2015, hence PAF will not get any immediate benefit from M2K purcase; The induction of M2K will marginally improve the overall ‘punch’ of the PAF based on the JF-17/SD-10 and possible Block 52+/AMRAAM-C5 induction in the PAF; M2K is not a role specialist Aircraft

Those who belong to the group-7 give the following reasons: M2K will not be a useful addition to PAF because its direct rival, the IAF is operating M2K-H for ~24 years and is fully aware of its strong as well as weak points.


What I find most important in connection to this issue is:

Even if we manage to cut a deal with the Qatari or UAE authorities, the M2K won’t come until 2015. So whatever benefits this deal will do to the PAF, they won't be until 2015. Now the question is, where PAF would be standing in 2015? How many JF-17s, with or without SD-10s? How many F-16 MLUs? How many Block 52+?, with or without AMRAAM-C5? What other force multipliers? How many AWACS/AEW platforms, how many AA refueling tankers, any long range SAM systems?

And if by 2015, PAF had a decent number of JF-17s , F-16 MLU+ Block 52+ both capable of firing BVR missiles plus AWACS/AEW plus refuelers plus FT-2000 SAM, what advantage will the induction of M2K give to PAF?

 

[mhussain]

qsaark, wonderfully well done. Thanks. Of course you haven't put in all the various possible combinations and variations and tiered decision trees possible, as well as the varying levels of confidence intervals for each individual on their decision choice. And what is mutually exclusive and what is not. : )

 

[notorious_eagle]

Good job qsaark, i think you have summed up everyone's opinion quite well. Can we please get over this obsession of M2K, we all know that Pakistan is not getting these birds and PAF simply does not wants it. Next topic please

 

[MastanKhan]

Qsaark,

The landlocked nation will find a way to procure---they maybe landlocked---but they may have funds available---they may have resources to pawn their belongings---otherwise they can just let the other tribe take over and themsleves roll over and die----is that what you meant!!!


I believe that people are mixing up things---so let me be a little more clearer---m2k's procurement is just being used partly as an example partly as a reality---due to---that is why I keep saying---listen to what the person is saying---not to what he is talking---

The PAF has been a failure in regards to procuring an upto date platform for the last approximately 20 years ( whereas the army has gotten what it wanted---the navy has procured what it needed and niether of these purchases have been without issue attached but they have attained their goals over time). Its dealing have been full of sanctions type scenarios plus other issues---the bottomline is that they have failed to procure the neccessary equipment needed to protect the skies of pakistan----Basicaly PAF procurement history is like a corporate failure story.

Historically speaking every nation of the world has prepared to fight its today's wars with what they have procured yesterday. That is what the elders of every nation teach their children, the young ones and adults---what you have saved yesterday and today---you will use it tomorrow in time of need. You can't start to save tomorrow for what you are going to need tomorrow----.

The major issue of this discussion is to make the young pakistanis understand the importance of now---here we have almost all of them bragging about something that has just barely seen its birth---whose performance is all but exageration and what not---a bvr missile system that has still to see the full scale production line---all these systems being readied at a lightening fast pace----you are a scientist---you know what happens to systems that are grown too fast---there are inherent genetical defects that have either been overseen and may have been totally missed due to time restraints---or intentionally let through by the top brass ( it has a very long time since I left my microbiology and biochemistry class---I don't even remember what it was like ) but try to speed up a chemical reaction or try to increase the temperature in the autoclave so that your cultures may grow faster---you know what the end result is---mostly failure---sometimes success---rarely you find something new and mystical.

What is the truth behind a clone---either a sheep or a machine---the first few generations have major major teething issues---it is a hit and a miss---the growing pains of any successful project completed on a fast track are horrendous---the failure rate very high---the CEO's lying through their teeth to keep their jobs safe---to keep the investments coming---.

Case in point---the JF 17---started at about 80% of F 16 a/b---now the posters have taken it to that stage---where the pride of the russian engineering the SU 30 MKI has alomst become a nobody---God almight--may the LORD have mercy upon the lying mouths and deceitful typing fingers. Only if we could win our wars with india by the word of the mouth---we would have pummelled them into kingdom come ( now you indian colleagues--don't you get any ideas from that ).

Anybody name one system from the second and third world nations that has come out and ruled the skies like never before.

In your discussion there maybe 7 groups---but the bottomline is---how are you splitting up the groups---is it based upon experience---techinical know---living at their parents house--wholely and solely dependent upon their parents---local students--pak students studying overseas---engineers--doctors---other corporate executive---people well versed with european warfare, equipment and systems ( not the manufacturers brochures or wikipedia )-----to me there are only two groups---the, to have and the have nots---


The second thing is---that you are riding the posts of other writers---and at the end you have not invested your time and talent to put forward your personal scientific analysis regarding this issue. Your input is the most important part of this scenario---. With your scientific knowledge and scientific reasoning you share with us what you think.

Your quote

" So here is my question:

Even if we manage to cut a deal with the Qatari or UAE authorities, the M2K won’t come until 2015. So whatever benefits this deal will do to the PAF, they won't be until 2015. Now the question is, where PAF would be standing in 2015? How many JF-17s, with or without SD-10s? How many F-16 MLUs? How many Block 52+?, with or without AMRAAM-C5? What other force multipliers? How many AWACS/AEW platforms, how many AA refueling tankers, any long range SAM systems?

And if by 2015, PAF had a decent number of JF-17s , F-16 MLU+ Block 52+ both capable of firing BVR missiles plus AWACS/AEW plus refuelers plus FT-2000 SAM, what advantage will the induction of M2K give to PAF? " Qsaark


You see this whole issue is about your question---for which we direly need an answer---my thinking was that you would have your say in it---I wanted to know where your head is about this issue---as a person I want to know if my colleague is a VISIONARY or if he is a gambler ( I use this term loosely ) like most of the posters---gambler meaning we will have the great planes---our missiles will work when they are manufactured---we will bring the nemy down to its knees---our chicken little will tear down their monster hawk---I believe you get my drift.

 

[MastanKhan]

Neo,

My good friend---the sanctions we had in the past were different---there were pakistani supporters in the other camp and they looked the other way when we bought anything in the black market---we may have had 28 machine flying during the embargo---but they were not ready for a full time warfare---maybe 5 days of spare parts---a week to 10 days of reserves at the most---I would doubta about that as well---my understanding is that barely 2 to 3 days of hard air combat. Pak pilots barely flying enough hours in the f 16's---

Todays sanctions would be on a totally different scale---the liability issue a lot more severe for the culprit---the arms of the u s admins a lot longer and stronger than what they were in the 90's---u s will go after us with a vendetta and a new vengefulness whichj we don't need.

A nation like pakistan with a neighbour like india should never ever think of getting sanctioned for anything at all. Sanctions are like tuberclosis---sanctions are like a plague---they eat the body alive and leave behind the husk---.

 

[qsaark]

You see this whole issue is about your question---for which we direly need an answer---my thinking was that you would have your say in it---I wanted to know where your head is about this issue---as a person I want to know if my colleague is a VISIONARY or if he is a gambler ( I use this term loosely ) like most of the posters---gambler meaning we will have the great planes---our missiles will work when they are manufactured---we will bring the nemy down to its knees---our chicken little will tear down their monster hawk---I believe you get my drift.

Come on, after putting 'thanks' at the end of almost every post from you and boggeddown on M2K issue, do I really need to put it in writing what is my stand on this? I believe it was not just a mistake but probably a 'criminal' mistake on behalf of the PAF top brass' of not inducting the M2K in the 90s. Keep paying for the F-16s that were never coming was another such criminal mistake for which the tops in the PAF of that time must be prosecuted. If I was PAF's chief, after all the F-16 debacle, I would have sacked the US option for ever and would have inducted M2K in PAF at any price. I still wonder what happened to those funds that were allocated for Aircraft procurements during the past 20 years or so??? At any rate, I also believe that the joint development of the JF-17 was a good step in the right direction.

In my personal opinion, if the M2K were inducted back in 90s, they would have revolutionize the PAF doctrine, if they are inducted today, they’ll dramatically improve the overall performance of the PAF, and if we get them by 2015, their impact would not be so dramatic but will be significant.

And to cut the story short, even if by 2015, PAF gets all the goodies I have mentioned in my earlier post, it still would only add to their capabilities if the M2K-9 are inducted. How well the'll perform as dedicated air-superiority fighter remains to be seen. At least one example exists where Greeks did manage to bring down the Turkish F-16 using their M2K.

 

[MaXimMaRz]

Every one wants to get what they need: What PAF has and what it needs?

1. PAF has two major Roles to play; defensive counter Air operation and Offensive counter air operation.

2. We need a Genuine Escort, more like a thorough breed horse. We have a large number of load dumpers, but we need a specialized air superiority aircraft to get them onto the target.

3. We need to increase the number of multi-role platforms to carry out High value target hitting. Aircraft that are sound in Avionics

4. Lastly we need them to take of the load from the F-16s

5. To my understanding french aircraft are 10 times more difficult to maintain then the rest (except Russian, they take the lead in this aspect)

6. Contradictory to the claims made by French, M2k is does not or has not proven its self as a specialist in air superiority, so why to go for another load carrying mammoth.

 

[IceCold]

6. Contradictory to the claims made by French, M2k is does not or has not proven its self as a specialist in air superiority, so why to go for another load carrying mammoth.

I think mirage 2000 is more suitable for specialized ground attacks then air superiority although it is a multirole fighter jet.

 

[MaXimMaRz]

I think mirage 2000 is more suitable for specialized ground attacks then air superiority although it is a multirole fighter jet.

Yeah its better in air to ground role, the point is ....the price is way beyond the performance and when a doctor charges you alot, it must be really good at his work...which sadly MK2 isnt

 

[mhussain]

I'd have to go against the general view here. I think M2Ks would make great Air Superiority fighters. Not for perhaps, lower level turning "ambush" style air combat as has been something of a trademark of PAF's doctrine and useful in the Northern reaches of Pakistan, but, more of a high altitude "top cover" style platform ideal for countering the MKI. At higher altitudes, I would consider M2Ks would actually be superior to F-16s, particularly given the aerodynamics of the large delta wings. The only thing holding them back to perfecting that role is the perceived shorter range of the Mica over the AMRAAM.

PS: Its perceived weakness vis-a-vis the lower-bypass engine which is comparatively weaker and thirstier than the F-16s, has some benefits at higher altitudes (and lower A2A loads) than the F-16. (quickly negated with any decent load)

Here is a discussion on F-16.net
http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-1872.html

 

[MaXimMaRz]

I'd have to go against the general view here. I think M2Ks would make great Air Superiority fighters. Not for perhaps, lower level turning "ambush" style air combat as has been something of a trademark of PAF's doctrine and useful in the Northern reaches of Pakistan, but, more of a high altitude "top cover" style platform ideal for countering the MKI. At higher altitudes, I would consider M2Ks would actually be superior to F-16s, particularly given the aerodynamics of the large delta wings. The only thing holding them back to perfecting that role is the perceived shorter range of the Mica over the AMRAAM.

1. Actually, Delta wing is a set back in air to air mode, its the canards thats saving the M2K integrity.

2. I dont know what u mean by top cover, cuz the term is only used for the free fighter whoz acting as a hawk while watching the air battle under him

 

[blain2]

Come on, after putting 'thanks' at the end of almost every post from you and boggeddown on M2K issue, do I really need to put it in writing what is my stand on this? I believe it was not just a mistake but probably a 'criminal' mistake on behalf of the PAF top brass' of not inducting the M2K in the 90s. Keep paying for the F-16s that were never coming was another such criminal mistake for which the tops in the PAF of that time must be prosecuted. If I was PAF's chief, after all the F-16 debacle, I would have sacked the US option for ever and would have inducted M2K in PAF at any price. I still wonder what happened to those funds that were allocated for Aircraft procurements during the past 20 years or so??? At any rate, I also believe that the joint development of the JF-17 was a good step in the right direction.

In my personal opinion, if the M2K were inducted back in 90s, they would have revolutionize the PAF doctrine, if they are inducted today, they’ll dramatically improve the overall performance of the PAF, and if we get them by 2015, their impact would not be so dramatic but will be significant.

And to cut the story short, even if by 2015, PAF gets all the goodies I have mentioned in my earlier post, it still would only add to their capabilities if the M2K-9 are inducted. How well the'll perform as dedicated air-superiority fighter remains to be seen. At least one example exists where Greeks did manage to bring down the Turkish F-16 using their M2K.

Turkish F-16s were flying unarmed so its not an appropriate comparison.

Also its not the PAF air command which is responsible for the failure in induction of the M2K. The country was broke and the then government had other priorities thus information was leaked about the platform being excessively expensive by certain quarters (not from the PAF side by the way).

Its all done with and in the past.

I still wonder what happened to those funds that were allocated for Aircraft procurements during the past 20 years or so???

Qsaark, contrary to common perception, its not the case where monies are allocated and they accrue somewhere for a service to purchase something after a while. The way this happens is that most acquisitions like the aircraft and tanks are capital acquisitions. Any time you are planning on buying this type of hardware, planning and a lot of give and take has to happen between the services. Unlike the US where each service gets a substantial funding for acquisitions, in Pakistan the defence budget is pretty much one that covers the operational expenses. All of the stuff for purchases has to be catered to outside of the annual funding available. So within a year, typically all money gets used up on operational expenses (salaries, maint. etc.) and whatever little that is left unused is actually taken back. (You loose what you do not use).

Anytime PAF needs to make purchases of aircraft, it usually is the largest purchase made by any service. Since it is so large, the three services have to prioritize appropriately.

Secondly, back in the 90's, the government did not even have enough money to put down on the first installment (which is what the PAF had requested the PPP government to do) and Dassault had stipulated in the contract (which upon signing required an initial payment).

So one cannot and MUST NOT blame the PAF in such a manner. Their job is to define their ASRs, select an appropriate platform that meets the ASRs and then recommend to the government to purchase it. Beyond this its all in the hands of the government. PAF can only do what is in their mandate which is to make appropriate recommendations and hope that the government would be receptive and push the purchases through.

F-16 payments are no different. Its the government's job to ensure that they understand how the relations between Pakistan and US are. PAF cannot monitor a political decision by the USG. That is the job of our Ambassador in the US and the folks in foreign ministry. They should have told the GoP to put a stop payment and work to recover earlier payments, yet the GoP carried on as usual (obviously the primary blame and responsibility goes to the USG for illegally taking our money, however if you want to lay the responsibility on the Pakistan side, its the GoP). PAF top brass go by what the ambassador and the foreign ministry folks tell them. If they say "sub accha" then obviously there would be no reason for anyone in the PAF to call up the government and say "please stop further payments".

I hope the context above helps before people critique the service any further.

Thank you

 

[fatman17]

its amazing the time and effort being put on this thread - if the same passion is exhibited by the board members on more pressing threats to our country, i am sure we can all benefit from our collective wisdom!

 

[qsaark]

F-16 payments are no different. Its the government's job to ensure that they understand how the relations between Pakistan and US are. PAF cannot monitor a political decision by the USG. That is the job of our Ambassador in the US and the folks in foreign ministry. They should have told the GoP to put a stop payment and work to recover earlier payments, yet the GoP carried on as usual (obviously the primary blame and responsibility goes to the USG for illegally taking our money, however if you want to lay the responsibility on the Pakistan side, its the GoP). PAF top brass go by what the ambassador and the foreign ministry folks tell them. If they say "sub accha" then obviously there would be no reason for anyone in the PAF to call up the government and say "please stop further payments"

You are absolutely right on this issue. I take my words back and apologize for blaming PAF for something they had no or little control over.