If that was true then, it is true now to some extent. Given the extent of Indian armed forces consolidation, I can understand a case where India gets in 40 kms in a few sectors before Pakistan can bog it down with conventional forces without going nuclear. It might as well happen for India too as was witnessed in Kargil and India did not go nuclear.
I do know that all the Kargil fighting took place in Indian territory. My argument is that it was still in a tolerable intrusion into India and India did not go nuclear.
I didn't initially understand this part of your logic
Pakistan crosses over into Indian territory and not calculate a nuclear retaliation, but
India crosses over into Pakistani territory and expect a nuclear retaliation just because it has Nasr.
Now that you clarify that it is not going to be at the drop of a hat but at that threshold. That is my argument against the use of Nasr or its insurance potential. CSD or whatever can still happen in that tolerable limit where nuclear option won't be used by Pakistan.
Now when that limit is reached, Nasr is going to be of little use. You can as well go all nuclear with an all out attack as you can very well expect a massive retaliation based on India's doctrine.
My case: Your nuclear weapons are a deterrence, not Nasr.
PA can't just use Nasr and expect no retaliation. Hence using Nasr makes PA the initiator of the nuclear conflict and not India.
Hence Nasr is not an insurance. A threat of an all out Nuclear war is.
Yes , that is true even now . But the conventional disparity has grown disproportionately in favor of India in the last two decades , it isn't what it used to be then . Surely , the conventional forces of Pakistan can withstand something as relatively small as a few IBG's even with its current capability today , but an army will plan for all scenarios including the worst case ones . Whatever India can muster today , it is increasing its capability day by day and soon the forces that can be mobilized quickly for a shallow strike will grow in size and the CSD threat will rise further , now we do have to plan for that . You are talking 40-50 km again , without having any idea of what it would mean . India didn't go nuclear because of its high thresholds and since the conventional forces were enough , what other logic lies there to go nuclear and initiate the MAD if you can control the situation without it ? The weapons of last resort , they are . Use the same logic for Pakistan .
Hey ! You can neither guarantee or assure me or anyone in this country by any means , that the Indians aren't going to cross the nuclear thresholds or put the country's existence and integrity not in danger , that is the problem . There's just no way to know them - the intentions or to use your word ' tolerable limit ' , how does India know whats tolerable for its opposition and how does it convince the opposition to allow to attack it and let it be invaded ?
Explain me this thing . Consider " Nasr and the TNW " as the final warning from Pakistan to retreat and save both countries , that is all , a gradual escalation thing instead of a sudden " doomsday " scenario from massive nuclear exchange or how it is today , ensuring that the border isn't crossed even for a limited scale conflict in the first place . The rest of SPD will go to the immediate launch/high alert state in the meantime . I am aware at that time , what the mood will be , in both capitals . Islamabad expects retaliation but it also puts the Indians in a dilemma to continue and risk a billion and retreat and save them after crossing the border , since its the few IBG's being attacked in Pakistani territory - small number of troops . I explained why India doesn't want to fight an all-out war in great detail , but it appears that it was in vain . You are failing to understand why countries have high or low thresholds , nothing more .
The problem is fanboys regards their armies as some ready to die and full of bravado, while the truth is they do fear and they do love their existence and their family existence.
The problem is that the fanboys watch a lot of Indian television and hence start to believe in such childish things , underestimating the enemy and overestimating themselves in the meantime . Otherwise explain why did we go nuclear in the first place then if we never plan to use it ? For them to serve our deterrence and if they cant , we all know what happens in mutually assured destruction . As for the " not ready to die and lacking bravado " thing , maybe the Indian generals/planners know better of the psyche of their Pakistani counterparts having tested their resolve four time and found it firm and strong . Every one fears for its existence and has the " self preservation " thing built in , but what if it itself is in danger ? If it cant ensure its safety , then it will make sure that neither can the enemy - ever read the Samson Option ? . If the existence and integrity of Pakistan is in danger , the country will not hesitate to start a nuclear exchange , that is all . Something which has kept Indians from crossing the border during their both mobilizations . Read and ponder what kept away Indian Army from attacking my country and cross our border in the last four encounters ( '87 , '99 , '01 , '08 ) . I explained it above to a member .