Pakistan’s Geoeconomic Delusions

[ziaulislam]

why do you repeatedly post yankee nonsense? if it is SO BAD then why arent the letting Pakistan sink under the weight of CPEC?

Pakistani are misunderstanding CPEC
CPEC is great it will provide very much needed infrastructure thats needed for industrial development

But CPEC ISNT INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

NOR ARE WE SITTING ON SUEZ CANAL

Eastern china has very sparse population so dont expect any transit from china towards gawadar

Gawadar can be developed as transit route for afgahnistan and part of central asia but thats it..now whats the size of economy of parts of central asia and afgahnistan?? Less then karachi !!

CPEC mismanagement was in power sector when we offered RoR of 20% with dollar indexation and capacity payments ..this made power 50% as exepensive as regional players

So we keep on confusing CPEC
Had we focused on simultaneously industrial zones along CPEC route then good
But just to build motorway without industry and we saw our results

 

[GumNaam]

Pakistani are misunderstanding CPEC
CPEC is great it will provide very much needed infrastructure thats needed for industrial development

But CPEC ISNT INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

NOR ARE WE SITTING ON SUEZ CANAL

Eastern china has very sparse population so dont expect any transit from china towards gawadar

Gawadar can be developed as transit route for afgahnistan and part of central asia but thats it..now whats the size of economy of parts of central asia and afgahnistan?? Less then karachi !!

CPEC mismanagement was in power sector when we offered RoR of 20% with dollar indexation and capacity payments ..this made power 50% as exepensive as regional players

So we keep on confusing CPEC
Had we focused on simultaneously industrial zones along CPEC route then good
But just to build motorway without industry and we saw our results

incorrect. businesses & their favorites in China have already started relocating towards China’s western provinces including xinjiang province. why do you think so many high rise sky scrapers are increasing there?

 

[Path-Finder]

Pakistani are misunderstanding CPEC
CPEC is great it will provide very much needed infrastructure thats needed for industrial development

But CPEC ISNT INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

NOR ARE WE SITTING ON SUEZ CANAL

Eastern china has very sparse population so dont expect any transit from china towards gawadar

Gawadar can be developed as transit route for afgahnistan and part of central asia but thats it..now whats the size of economy of parts of central asia and afgahnistan?? Less then karachi !!

CPEC mismanagement was in power sector when we offered RoR of 20% with dollar indexation and capacity payments ..this made power 50% as exepensive as regional players

So we keep on confusing CPEC
Had we focused on simultaneously industrial zones along CPEC route then good
But just to build motorway without industry and we saw our results

there is an industrial re location to Pakistan!!

 

[TNT]

People can criticize yankees and make excuses, some can use poetry but living in Pakistan, looking at the situation, i can see how accurate the assessment of this article is. Its so accurate that it scared me, where are we heading. If things dont change, we are heading towards a full fledged civil war. May Allah protect us.

And the problem is the country’s elite, both civilian and military, benefits from the status quo.

This is the main reason, i keep saying this. This elite class which is in every govt is the actual evil. Even now the PTI is filled with elites. We need to get rid of this class if we r ever to develop. God forbid, but i see these haram khor evil elite class pushing Pakistan into civil war in the end and escaping with their families abroad to their stashed wealth.

 

[ziaulislam]

there is an industrial re location to Pakistan!!

No this goes against facts, some but not alot
China hasnt been relocating many industries as its labour is still pretty cheap but the relocation if any is going more near its industrial base i.e south china see and vietnam. This is because vietnam has better polcies cheaper power and more proximity to china

Simply google and see if vietnam has more chinese investment in industries or pakistan


The answer will surprise you

People can criticize yankees and make excuses, some can use poetry but living in Pakistan, looking at the situation, i can see how accurate the assessment of this article is. Its so accurate that it scared me, where are we heading. If things dont change, we are heading towards a full fledged civil war. May Allah protect us.



This is the main reason, i keep saying this. This elite class which is in every govt is the actual evil. Even now the PTI is filled with elites. We need to get rid of this class if we r ever to develop. God forbid, but i see these haram khor evil elite class pushing Pakistan into civil war in the end and escaping with their families abroad to their stashed wealth.

I guess we should vote for maryum nawaz she can help us get rid of elites

 

[normal person mutta]

Yep. The situation is bad.

 

[hussain0216]

We need reform

We needed reform 30 years ago at the start of the 1990s but we got nothing

It's true the reason is that our elite is comfortable and rich ergo they dont need change

PPP just wants control over Sindh forever

Groups like MQM, ANP, PTM are just ethnocentric supremacists and want Pakistan to be split amongst ethnic groups with little fiefdoms in a loosely held together state

The mafia's that grow rich controlling sugar, wheat, power, have a captive population of 220 million so why would they want change or competition



And our population is jahil and our politics donkey like so we never get parties who have majorities they can use to create reform and change


We have gotten Imran Khan but he is alone in a corrupt system with no real majority forced to tolerate electables with a population that dosent understand the situation facing PAKISTAN



Reform takes time
Sometimes it will create pain in the short and medium term
It requires support from society or reform can never take place not constant attack from media and opposition


Reform or die
We under no circumstances can go back to the sharifs or Bhutto's if anything those monkeys are even more indebted to the mafias for support against IK

PTI isn't perfect but with IK atleast we have someone who understands the need for change

It's upto the people of we don't give them a majority that can actually bring change

THEN WHAT ARE WE COMPLAINING ABOUT?

I understand when sugar prices are high or their is inflation people struggle but we also need to ask ourselves why those things occured, why we have so much debt, why didn't we bring change or reform decades ago

 

[VCheng]

The problem is that the country’s elite - both civilian and military benefits from the status quo. Hence, the middle that understands this and can escape already has or is in the process of and the poor keep increasing as well. However, another middle class takes place of the exodus so really nothing changes in hell .. I mean Pakistan. People are burnt with scalding water, skin replaced and burnt again.. it keeps going on.

I would agree, except that I would regard what you describe as an intended design feature, and not a problem.

 

[Indus Pakistan]

IS CPEC only a Transit agreement .... ???

No, it never was. The premise of a economic corridor is -

• you lay the hard part - infra, ports, roads, economic parks, power supplies etc
• you lay the soft part

This has been now done to a large degree. Karachi is now almost connected to the north by motorways, Power issues have been resolved. However has Karachi begining to turn into next Shenzen or Hong Kong as a manufacturing hub? The answer is firm NO.

Gwadar Port is now complete. Is the port roaring with exports? Or even imports? The port is quiter than a graveyard. The answer is form NO.

Basically Pakistan has got lots of infra and power problems have been resolved but what is it exporting? NOTHING. How does the country make dollars?

• Ex-pat workers send money via remittances
• Loans from international banks or lenders like IMF.

Has CPEC failed? The jury is out but it is looking like a big flop.

The premise of a economic corridor is -

• you lay the hard part - infra, ports, roads, economic parks, power supplies etc
• you lay the soft part

This then attracts millions of entreprenuers local and international. Investors pour in billions. Soon a thriving economic corridor takes root relying on the 'hard part' and connects up with global markets or investors. This has failed miserably. How many Chinese entrepeneurs have been attracted?

 

[Norwegian]

We needed reform 30 years ago at the start of the 1990s but we got nothing

This sums up the problem. Pakistan's economy is import driven whereas it should have been export driven.


@ziaulislam @Path-Finder @Patriot forever @Del @Dual Wielder

Basically Pakistan has got lots of infra and power problems have been resolved but what is it exporting?

How is power problem resolved? Before Cpec Pakistan had energy shortage. After Cpec it has energy overload and still the most expensive electricity in the region.

 

[ziaulislam]

We need reform

We needed reform 30 years ago at the start of the 1990s but we got nothing

It's true the reason is that our elite is comfortable and rich ergo they dont need change

PPP just wants control over Sindh forever

Groups like MQM, ANP, PTM are just ethnocentric supremacists and want Pakistan to be split amongst ethnic groups with little fiefdoms in a loosely held together state

The mafia's that grow rich controlling sugar, wheat, power, have a captive population of 220 million so why would they want change or competition



And our population is jahil and our politics donkey like so we never get parties who have majorities they can use to create reform and change


We have gotten Imran Khan but he is alone in a corrupt system with no real majority forced to tolerate electables with a population that dosent understand the situation facing PAKISTAN



Reform takes time
Sometimes it will create pain in the short and medium term
It requires support from society or reform can never take place not constant attack from media and opposition


Reform or die
We under no circumstances can go back to the sharifs or Bhutto's if anything those monkeys are even more indebted to the mafias for support against IK

PTI isn't perfect but with IK atleast we have someone who understands the need for change

It's upto the people of we don't give them a majority that can actually bring change

THEN WHAT ARE WE COMPLAINING ABOUT?

I understand when sugar prices are high or their is inflation people struggle but we also need to ask ourselves why those things occured, why we have so much debt, why didn't we bring change or reform decades ago

"What do you mean?
Everything was good in nawaz sharif era
IK destroyed everything "

This is point of view of majority of educated people of punjab

Before reforms comes acceptance ...
We arent over acceptance yet..we are still in denial

 

[Norwegian]

"What do you mean?
Everything was good in nawaz sharif era
IK destroyed everything "

This is point of view of majority of educated people of punjab

Before reforms comes acceptance ...
We arent over acceptance yet..we are still in denial

Central Punjabis are habitually stuck in "Khata Hai Par Lagata Bhi To Hai" mode

 

[HRK]

No, it never was. The premise of a economic corridor is -

• you lay the hard part - infra, ports, roads, economic parks, power supplies etc
• you lay the soft part

This has been now done to a large degree. Karachi is now almost connected to the north by motorways, Power issues have been resolved. However has Karachi begining to turn into next Shenzen or Hong Kong as a manufacturing hub? The answer is firm NO.

Gwadar Port is now complete. Is the port roaring with exports? Or even imports? The port is quiter than a graveyard. The answer is form NO.

Basically Pakistan has got lots of infra and power problems have been resolved but what is it exporting? NOTHING. How does the country make dollars?

• Ex-pat workers send money via remittances
• Loans from international banks or lenders like IMF.

Has CPEC failed? The jury is out but it is looking like a big flop.
This then attracts millions of entreprenuers local and international. Investors pour in billions. Soon a thriving economic corridor takes root relying on the 'hard part' and connects up with global markets or investors. This has failed miserably. How many Chinese entrepeneurs have been attracted?

bhai why you always try to debate those issues about which you have no idea .... ???

Karachi is not Shenzen or Hong Kong and neither it will come close to these cities for at least 10-15 years do you have any understanding or knowledge Why is this the case .... ???

I won't go into details but in short Karachi have some internal issues related to Infrastructure and Governance .... same is the case with whole Sindh Province .... which will be the least beneficiary of CPEC projects for obvious reasons ... in future even Baluchistan will surpass Sindh in infrastructure & economic activity.

So plz don't argue subjects with superficial knowledge

===================================


Now for those who are still thinking CPEC only as an agreement for Transit of Chinese goods need to answer

Why China and Pakistan are cooperating in Agriculture specially in high yeild crops and cooperation to improve seed quality.

Why Chinese are constructing Dams ..... ???

Why Special Economic Zones are being set up in KPK and Punjab and why Chinese companies are buying lands in those .... ???

As far as manufacturing sector is concern and almost stagnant export by this sector is concern plz need to answer what is the current manufacturing capabilities of Pakistan.

And for Chinese investment why Chinese auto manufacturers are entering in joint investment agreements in Pakistan with local investors ... why Suzuki and other establish Japanese auto brands first time facing serious competitions ..... ??

Why Haire have invested in home appliances mobile handset, laptop manufacturing .... ??

Why other mobile hand set companies are investing in Pakistan ..... ???

So on and so there is many things happening in Pakistan in economic fronts which will bear fruit in next decade ..... so rather to question on the basis of superficial knowledge people need to study this subject more deeply ....

hack even I am not current with latest developments ....

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Yes. When Cpec was signed by Pmln govt, it was envisioned primarily for transit of Chinese / Central Asian goods to the sea. Details:

How Pmln govt fooled the nation on CPEC

Going through an article from 2017 on Reuters, I was stunned to find chief economist of the planning ministry in Pmln govt was projecting 6-8 billion dollar revenues from Cpec by 2020 :rofl: Javaid said the Gwadar-Xinjiang corridor should be operational from June next year, and Pakistan expects...

defence.pk

There's nothing that prevents Pakistan from leveraging the CPEC infrastructure & investments to boost economic growth and diversify & broaden its industries. However, that would require reforms and addressing the issues pointed out in the OP and mentioned by other posters.

The idea that investment in infrastructure mega projects alone will revolutionize the economy & magically increase exports and domestic industrial growth has always been flawed, but was pushed with great zeal by Nawaz Sharif and gang. From a political standpoint it made sense - voters can see, touch & use infrastructure projects like motorways, flyovers etc. and it made Shahbaz & Nawaz look like 'people who get stuff done', but they did absolutely nothing in terms of breaking monopolies and enacting policies to help diversify Pakistan's industrial sector.

And to make sure there is no misunderstanding - this is nothing against China. China offered investment, loans & aid for these projects. It was up to the Pakistani leadership to analyze the offers and determine whether it was in Pakistan's benefit to proceed and how to get the most out of these projects. Could offsets have been built in to where machinery & equipment needed for these projects could be assembled in Pakistan? Existing or new Civil engineering institutions tied up with Chinese counterparts to help transfer knowledge and expertise? A significant part of Pakistan's economy depends on agriculture - did the Pakistani leadership even try to engage with the Chinese to identify rural infrastructure projects and investment in modern farming technology & increasing agricultural yields?

 

[hussain0216]

Things are happening for the better in Pakistan

But we need time now and reform the country needs to stand up

And like another poster above said too many of our population are in denial, still pining for the same old crooks like Nawaz unable to move on or forward



Change is happening but it's slow and the risk is our people don't understand, they simply have no understanding of what needs to be done and are too easily led into thinking that the pain is because of the reforms not because of the mistakes of the past hence our idiotic people will try to bring the sharifs or Bhutto's or some ethnocentric clown into power