Pakistan's GDP next 10-20 years?

[farhan_9909]

why flood happened in pak?

jab economy thori guzaray pr ponchi tho Allah ne azaab bhej dia.

i flood would not have happened we would have achieved the 4.7-5% growth for 2010- to 2011 and +6% was then very easy by 2012

 

[Hyde]

why flood happened in pak?

jab economy thori guzaray pr ponchi tho Allah ne azaab bhej dia.

i flood would not have happened we would have achieved the 4.7-5% growth for 2010- to 2011 and +6% was then very easy by 2012

Flood ke ilawa bhi zor toota howa thaa meray bhai

we were still taking loans from IMF and our credit rating still being downgraded

bas yeh hai ke hum logon main future planning karne ki skills bilkul hi nahi hoti to phir saza bhugat-te hain. Remember "Allah bhi unhi ki maddad karta hai jo apni maddad aap karte hain" (God help those who help themselves)

 

[Veeru]

My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.

My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.

Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.

Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.

Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.

I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.

If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.

The above statement is like a fairy tale that nothing bad will happen and everything will go as planned. In real world we have to face reality.

Tell me when was the last time Gwadar was to developed??

As "Zaki" was talking about 4 million New Jobs per year don't you think its a tall order??

As you talked about power sector i don't think that problems gonna solve in near future.

Growth in GDP is other thing and creation of large scale job is another.

1.) To create lots of jobs you have to attract lots of investment, technology and stress on labor intensive jobs.

But, you will face problem as you have free trade agreement with china.

2.) To grow in manufacturing and to create jobs and to attract investment apart from stable govt, policies and investment environment.

You also need inputs like low cost raw material like steel, cement, coal, petrochemicals etc. and infrastructure like power, railways and ports etc.

And also skilled and trained work force.

 

[VelocuR]

My recommendation: Pakistan must CANCEL spending on advanced Missiles/SAM/HQ18 ($$$ billions dollars), "4" Frigates/Type 54A/OHP ($$$ billions dollars), upgrading AlKhalid 2($$ billions dollars), Space programmes next year ($$$$ billions dollars), J-10B/JF-17 Blk 2 ($$$ billions dollars), recent brand new F-16s Blk 52 ($$ billions dollars), J-XX/F-35A fifth-generators fighters ($$$ sick billions dollars), maybe Submarines($$$ billions dollars) and vice versa.


Pakistan would gain benefits on the following below:

-Foundation of Educations (illiteracy rates) (in our cultures many old generations parents not allow kids to aboard-best education outside Pakistan!),
-Extreme-strong-reliable-stable democracy governments,
-Electricity Power Plants (10-20 years time process- *sh!t*),
Dams Projects/Infrastructures (yes gifts infrastructures from China/USA are in current process or almost completes),
-Poverty (previous 34% to now 24% great news! ),
-Healths,
-Majors businesses,
-Researchers,
-Fight roots of retard extremisms, talibans, religions & mentality,
-new strict LAW/Orders and Polices,
-Security Tights for foreign investments and tourists,
-Millions Pakistani's image role models/emotional (too many negative role models in publics (pls click)).
-Rejects Foreign loans (IMF, World Bank, US loans, China soft-loans, EU loans)
-Provide great benefits to thousands poor childrens


I think, these lists would make a big differences tmw from bad Pakistan to excellent-intelligent independent Pakistan. Again, it is all up to us and our belief. We don't have much to say right now because we so focus only on Pakistan military-yada yada! .....Let's see the projects ongoing

**(my dear members, it is all relevant facts! It is not about upsetting you or disagreements )**

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

My recommendation: Pakistan must CANCEL spending on advanced Missiles/SAM/HQ18 ($$$ billions dollars), "4" Frigates/Type 54A/OHP ($$$ billions dollars), upgrading AlKhalid 2($$ billions dollars), Space programmes next year ($$$$ billions dollars), J-10B/JF-17 Blk 2 ($$$ billions dollars), recent brand new F-16s Blk 52 ($$ billions dollars), J-XX/F-35A fifth-generators fighters ($$$ sick billions dollars), maybe Submarines($$$ billions dollars) and vice versa.

Or, Pakistan could retain a strong military and defence capability and save even more money by fixing the following issue that causes over 3 billion dollars to be lost every year by the GoP:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...orporations-caused-3-billion-loss-2010-a.html

That is slightly less than the entire defence budget I believe, and just think of the trickle down benefits of having PSE's that are efficient and provide products and services to the people like they are supposed to, can expand and diversify products and services and contribute even more to the economy.

The overall impact could end up being many more billions of dollars a year.

 

[Last Hope]

Or, Pakistan could retain a strong military and defence capability and save even more money by fixing the following issue that causes over 3 billion dollars to be lost every year by the GoP:

http://www.defence.pk/forums/econom...orporations-caused-3-billion-loss-2010-a.html

That is slightly less than the entire defence budget I believe, and just think of the trickle down benefits of having PSE's that are efficient and provide services to the people like they are supposed to, can expand and diversify products and services and congtribute even more to the economy.

The overall impact could end up being many more billions of dollars a year.

Who is gonna neutralise the problems?
Our government?
Zardari?
Gilani?
I suggest waiting for some time until they leave, then talk about GDP.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Who is gonna neutralise the problems?
Our government?
Zardari?
Gilani?
I suggest waiting for some time until they leave, then talk about GDP.

I understand the frustration with the incompetency of Pakistan's political leadership, but I am pointing out the fact, as have others, that there are various ways in which a large amount of resources can be freed up for use in development without cutting national defence.

And that there are various simple measures that can be implemented by the government to boost agricultural and industrial growth in a relatively short time span.

 

[truthseeker2010]

It have been seen in past that our economy have performed much better in times of "dictatorships" than in democracies, so its up to us to decide that what we want a strong economy or strong democracy. I am not in favor of dictatorships nor am i against democracy, but we should acknowledge the truth.

I think that $3 billion is way underestimated, it is around 1000 billion PKR which is around $11 billion.

 

[absmonarch]

Sign FTA with China, give them unrestricted market access. They will colonize economy and develop it.

Later, ask them to leave. If they agree nicely.

 

[truthseeker2010]

^^^ we already have signed FTA with them.

 

[absmonarch]

Then China will develop Pakistan economy. They will finance project and send China worker to build everything. Like Gwadar or Karakoram Highway.

Later Pakistani can use and benefit. But come at price - will have to obey China order in international arena. Not a problem because Pakistan do that already.

 

[truthseeker2010]

so you are saying that we should now sit back and look around, i don't think so. China is doing whatever it can, but it is not enough and if we want to grow at faster pace we have to look elsewhere as well.

 

[VelocuR]

similar steps by USA's defence cuts- White House Orders to Cut $90 Billion Defence Spending Over 5 Years

Sources: White House Orders DoD to Cut $90B Over 5 Years - Defense News

They are smart!

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

similar steps by USA's defence cuts- White House Orders to Cut $90 Billion Defence Spending Over 5 Years

Sources: White House Orders DoD to Cut $90B Over 5 Years - Defense News

They are smart!

Yeah, but they also have a military deployed in bases in dozens of countries around the world, with fighter jets that cost over $300 million per jet, and Aircraft Carriers that cost billions of dollars a year to operate alone.

The Pakistani military is barely acquiring enough to maintain a credible deterrent against internal and external threats. Therefore, the answer to Pakistan's development issues is not to cut the meager military budget we have, but to look to areas such as the one I mentioned where far greater savings and associated growth can be had.

 

[absmonarch]

USA is pragmatic. Pakistan make emotional, short-term thinking decision. That is why in trouble.

If Pakistan leaders wise, do no react emotion-wise, then make smart decision for long term benefit.