Pakistan's GDP next 10-20 years?

[Water Car Engineer]

YouTube - 22 countries with the highest GDP nominal in 2050

This is 2050, by Goldman Sachs. Pakistan is in the top 20, but these things can change. This is on current growth of nations.

 

[VelocuR]

My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.

My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.

Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.

Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.

Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.

I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.

If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.

Sir TechLahore, it is great sum-up, I really enjoy much of your posts and very realistics. Not only this year but sixty years, our people are lack of assertives, confidences, and self-initiatives. We don't take seriously on the bright future of Pakistan's economy, ironically we celebrates the success of massive missles-F-16Blk52-JFT-helicopters instead strong economy-the most important matters of all !

In 5 years, my prediction should yield a GDP (nominal) of:

$263B

In 10 years, it should be at (nominal):

$370B

And in 15 years, it should be at (nominal):

2025: $570B


This should translate into a GDP-PPP of roughly $1.4 Trillion.

It is pretty much disappointing. Please look at how far Turkey, Indonesia, Iran, Brazil, Spain, South Korea, and other superpowers will be triple massive economics powers in ahead of ten and twenty years.

Certainly our underlying economy remains 'fragile' and will be still fragile.

Hence, we have to keep our head up and be positive!

 

[Hyde]

YouTube - 22 countries with the highest GDP nominal in 2050

This is 2050, by Goldman Sachs. Pakistan is in the top 20, but these things can change. This is on current growth of nations.

But these are not words of God isn't it?

Such predictions have been proven false many times in past. If any country including us can exploit its true potential and benefit from its natural reserves blessed by Allah All-mighty I find no reason why they would be among the top nations of the world given the 4 decades of time is still left to prove it false?

 

[SMC]

^ predictions that far out are always a wild card. Highly improbable that the status quo will remain the same for the next 40 years. Anything major can happen in any of those countries to affect their future growth seriously. 40 years is a long time for things to happen.

 

[TechLahore]

The way we are trying to depend upon minerals in the coming years

I won't be surprised to see us growing at 15% per year at least once in the next 10 years.

Seriously I won't be surprised to see our economy averaging at 10% + per year post 2013

If you simply mandated drip irrigation installations and provided subsidies, you would get to a higher than 15% growth rate. The amazing thing is how LITTLE needs to be done in Pakistan to experience tremendous growth rates.

 

[notorious_eagle]

One thing that needs to be addressed is the energy shortage. Hopefully all these projects that have been initiated materialize and we can address this problem. The manufacturing industry in Pakistan will greatly benefit from this; i can tell you first hand of factories and mills closed down in Faislabad, Lala Musa, Sagian, Gujrat etc due to electricity shortage. In my own case my fathers business has been aptly affected due to energy shortage, we have to make up the shortfall by installing generators which drives up the cost. I definitely see a bright future for Pakistan, but what we need right now is ENERGY ENERGY ENERGY.

 

[Avatar]

The basic assumption here that the end of WOT will solve all of Pakistan's "woes" is IMO a wrong idea to conceive. It is not clear which way WOT is heading, what the outcomes will be and whether NATO will actually stick to the deadline. As the deadline gets closer it can get better OR worse.

Many countries have spent a lot of wealth in developing NATO controlled areas of Afghanistan, and if Taliban is allowed to take over things will go back to the way they where, as if NATO was never here, and all those efforts will be wasted.. Leaving one thing, a much stronger and experienced Taliban war machine. Now when there's nobody left to fight, what do you expect this war machine to do ?

My assumption is they will target provinces like NWFP, and with no US support it will be more expensive to deal with them. Same with other organizations like TTP, Al Qaeda, etc. These factors need to be taken into account of your calculations, and also other factors such as water problems, power problems (and solutions to them), interest on/repayment of accumulated loans, etc.

 

[indianpatriot]

my assumption! for 2050

Pakistan

in10 yrs-avg growth rate of 6%-$318.8
in20 yrs-avg growth rate of 7%-$688.8
in40 yrs-avg growth rate of 5%-$1,253.2


setting it all to inflation!
GDP=$2000 billion
Percapita=$8000(a mid developed nation like Argentina



For India
in10yrs-growth rate of 9%-$3,219.6 bil
in20yrs-growth rate of 8%(increase in popl and and manpower)-$6,338.9 bil
in40 yrs-growth rate of 7%-$20,365.26 bil

set to inflation-$39,450 billion!!!
popl=1500 million
per capita=$13 576.84( a mid developed nation like Croatia or Saudi Arabia)

PRC
in10yrs-growth rate 8%-$10,794 bil
in20yrs-growth rate 7%-$19,3484223 bil
in40 yrs-growth rate 5%(fall in popl and ageing)-$35,420 bil

set to inflation-$67 billion!!
popl=1440 million
per capita=$46 527.77 a developed country like US!

as far as India vs China is concerned India may very well take over China in next 20 yrs!!!i.e. by 2070!!!but before that happens China will completely engulf Taiwan+HK and others and make some artificial life to increase its manpower and productivity incredibly!

while India may reunite with (ok this gonna be weird) with Pakistan,bangladesh,Nepal to create United States of Asia and unbmrella economically integrated nation like EU..which may tremndously add to its GDP and GDP growth!!!

 

[arihant]

If our energy issues are resolved, we will have hundreds of thousands of Jobs created in energy sector. Auto-revival of industries and great boost towards GDP

I suppose once the coal gasification project is matured and the Gold is started being produced, we shall witness a growth rate of 10% +

I think India might have excess of energy production by 2015. State like Gujarat are producing three fold energy than it require, while around 10 fold projects are under consideration and construction. If both country moves towards total peace, I guess we should not hesitate to export energy ( and off course by onions )

And about gold, coal, gas... etc. It looks you are putting too much estimate. This resources do help but not that much to lead 10% growth. For growth like 10%, what you need terror free country with lots of consumer market and R&D sector booming. All the three aspects currently lacking in pakistan if I am not wrong.

 

[indianpatriot]

and i just came to know that my assumptions are not that far from Goldman Sachs!!yipee

 

[ares]

Thank you, there are many inaccurates economics websites and confusions. Last time GDP says 450 billions (which is now 650 billions according to your link), it say 166 billions???

You should read more carefully and perhaps refer IMF data and prediction given below..as Pakistan National statistical data figures are outdated.

 

[SMC]

The basic assumption here that the end of WOT will solve all of Pakistan's "woes" is IMO a wrong idea to conceive. It is not clear which way WOT is heading, what the outcomes will be and whether NATO will actually stick to the deadline. As the deadline gets closer it can get better OR worse.

Many countries have spent a lot of wealth in developing NATO controlled areas of Afghanistan, and if Taliban is allowed to take over things will go back to the way they where, as if NATO was never here, and all those efforts will be wasted.. Leaving one thing, a much stronger and experienced Taliban war machine. Now when there's nobody left to fight, what do you expect this war machine to do ?

My assumption is they will target provinces like NWFP, and with no US support it will be more expensive to deal with them. Same with other organizations like TTP, Al Qaeda, etc. These factors need to be taken into account of your calculations, and also other factors such as water problems, power problems (and solutions to them), interest on/repayment of accumulated loans, etc.

WoT is part of the problem. Nobody said that it's the only problem, but it's our biggest problem. Ending WoT will most likely result in growth rate of around 7%, maybe even 8%. Then beyond that there are other problems.

Now as far as Taliban is concerned, no they won't attack Pakistan. TTP, yes, but it's already doing that it's getting hell of a spanking in FATA.

 

[VelocuR]

Do we realize that our budget is complete low and risk!

i.e- 'bankrupts' Greece problem is its spending of military and its GDP is current $329 billions, Pakistan's different problems on WOT, endless Talibans, energy shortage, insecure governments, and lawless, is currently 166 billions below from the top budget! It is a sign of declining.

In my analysis, most developing countries strict to $500 billions (GDP), it will create self efficients, self-reliances, less dependency and own policy.

 

[ares]

WoT is part of the problem. Nobody said that it's the only problem, but it's our biggest problem. Ending WoT will most likely result in growth rate of around 7%, maybe even 8%. Then beyond that there are other problems.

Now as far as Taliban is concerned, no they won't attack Pakistan. TTP, yes, but it's already doing that it's getting hell of a spanking in FATA.

IMF thinks differently..it predicts after recent floods(which have knocked down its growth by 2%). Pakistan will reach 6% GDP growth trajectory by 2015 only..and its nominal GDP will stand about $246 Billion.


1980 28.632 1988 42.241 1995 74.066 2002 72.685 2009 166.515
1981 30.838 1989 43.869 1996 77.345 2003 83.501 2010 177.901
1982 31.303 1990 48.457 1997 76.261 2004 98.093 2011 189.971
1983 32.339 1991 55.007 1998 75.966 2005 109.595 2012 200.803
1984 33.762 1992 59.407 1999 71.248 2006 127.489 2013 213.795
1985 34.941 1993 62.88 2000 74.08 2007 143.203 2014 228.874
1986 36.432 1994 63.389 2001 72.268 2008 164.557 2015 246.234
1987 38.983

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gdp-at-current-prices-in-us-dollars-imf-data.html

 

[farhan_9909]

Our current GDP nominal 177 billion not 197 billion.


Pakistan economy did better after the war on terror started but last 3 years are very bad. this year GDP growth is only 0 to 2%. It will take 20 years to make a trillion dollar economy.

Sir Pakistan economic growth this year was 4.1% in june..next years means from 2010 june to 2011 june estimated is 4.7% or 5%.

we need atleast 6% by 2013.which is very much possible