Pakistan's GDP next 10-20 years?

[ares]

Sir Pakistan economic growth this year was 4.1% in june..next years means from 2010 june to 2011 june estimated is 4.7% or 5%.

we need atleast 6% by 2013.which is very much possible

No, Pakistan's GDP growth last year FY 2009-10 was 4.1% ..which was achieved by reducing the base year ( FY-2008-2009) to 1.2%.(to make this year's growth look better)

This year (FY-2010-2011) predicted growth was suppose to be 4.5% but floods changed all that..so predicted growth for this year 2%.

Hence pakistan will only able to achieve 6% growth rate(if all goes as planned) by FY 2014-15.

 

[SMC]

IMF thinks differently..it predicts after recent floods(which have knocked down its growth by 2&#37. Pakistan will reach 6% GDP growth trajectory by 2015 only..and its nominal GDP will stand about $246 Billion.


1980 28.632 1988 42.241 1995 74.066 2002 72.685 2009 166.515
1981 30.838 1989 43.869 1996 77.345 2003 83.501 2010 177.901
1982 31.303 1990 48.457 1997 76.261 2004 98.093 2011 189.971
1983 32.339 1991 55.007 1998 75.966 2005 109.595 2012 200.803
1984 33.762 1992 59.407 1999 71.248 2006 127.489 2013 213.795
1985 34.941 1993 62.88 2000 74.08 2007 143.203 2014 228.874
1986 36.432 1994 63.389 2001 72.268 2008 164.557 2015 246.234
1987 38.983

Pakistan GDP at current prices in US dollars

Mate, do the math from 2011 to 2012. It's 6% growth, which is what we're predicting.

Also, I predict WoT to end around 2014, so I don't see what IMF thinks 'differently'. They predict 7% growth rate from 2013 to 2014.

Besides, I tend to take these predictions not too seriously and rather choose to look at ground reality as a predictor. WoT ending will significantly help, whereas the effects of floods will last maybe 1 more year. By 2012, we should definitely be at 6% (same as IMF prediction, but I didn't arrive at my figure by looking at IMF predictions).

 

[SMC]

No, Pakistan's GDP growth last year FY 2009-10 was 4.1% ..which was achieved by reducing the base year ( FY-2008-2009) to 1.2%.(to make this year's growth look better)

This year (FY-2010-2011) predicted growth was suppose to be 4.5% but floods changed all that..so predicted growth for this year 2%.

Hence pakistan will only able to achieve 6% growth rate(if all goes as planned) by FY 2014-15.

It's 3% this year, 4.5-5% next year, and 6% from 2012 (not from 2014, read my post above.)

 

[Hasnain2009]

In 5 years, my prediction should yield a GDP (nominal) of:

$263B

In 10 years, it should be at (nominal):

$370B

And in 15 years, it should be at (nominal):

2025: $570B


This should translate into a GDP-PPP of roughly $1.4 Trillion.

GDP(nominal) of pakistan in 2002 was $72bn and it was $143bn in 2007, so it was doubled in only 5 years because of better govt, and if we had better govt from 2007-2012 then pakistan would had GDP $300bn+ in 2012, so if we again get some better govt, then i m sure we can double our economy again in 4-5years, or may be earlier then this because more doors for progress are open today as compared to past!

 

[SMC]

I don't think it was 72B in 2002, it was around that mark in 1999. But yes, you do have a point, because we went from around 70B to around 170B in 8 years. Because the government we had was actually competent and less corrupt.

 

[Hyde]

No, Pakistan's GDP growth last year FY 2009-10 was 4.1% ..which was achieved by reducing the base year ( FY-2008-2009) to 1.2%.(to make this year's growth look better)

This year (FY-2010-2011) predicted growth was suppose to be 4.5% but floods changed all that..so predicted growth for this year 2%.

Hence pakistan will only able to achieve 6% growth rate(if all goes as planned) by FY 2014-15.

It has already been confirmed by the State bank of Pakistan that the predicted growth rate for this year will be near 4% despite the floods

 

[SMC]

Even better. So around 5-5.5% in 2011, and maybe 2012 at 6-6.5%. Or is any hope of a growth rate beyond 6% in 2012 overly optimistic?

 

[Mani2020]

Imran is a cricketer not leader.

Do you know the definition of a leader? if so then you haven't atleast said that

 

[Hyde]

Even better. So around 5-5.5% in 2011, and maybe 2012 at 6-6.5%. Or is any hope of a growth rate beyond 6% in 2012 overly optimistic?

optimistically thinking ...Pakistan in 2013/2014

- you know china grows about 3x more rice in similar environment that we have in Sindh. We are in process of obtaining that technology from China that will increase our production capacity to manifold. If only we talk about exports we can easily increase our rice export from 2.25 billion dollars current to somewhere near 5-6 billion dollars within next 2-3 years

- IT & Telecommunication industries are booming each year

- Some coal projects would be approaching its completion and we may be producing some electricity and gas by then.

- Some oil refineries being installed in Pakistan will be nearing its completion
- Gwadar port will have been matured
- Roads infrastructure would have been laid by then
- Skyscrappers would have been erected by then
- Smaller dams would have been completed by then and adding cheaper electricity in national grid and providing water for irrigation
- Gold & Copper in rekodiq?
- many under construction industries would have been completed by then and started their production
- what if dream of receiving an investment of 36 billion dollars from China in the next 5 years come true?

all this and a lot more coming in next 3-5 years.

So I see no reason why we will not be able to progress by up to 8-15% post 2014.

 

[ZaYYaF]

I think for Pakistan to stand among the countries who have 8%+ growth rates an year, it needs to have : (i) A secure environment, (ii) A stable Govt., and (iii) Finish the development projects it starts within time and budget.

 

[Last Hope]

I think for Pakistan to stand among the countries who have 8%+ growth rates an year, it needs to have : (i) A secure environment, (ii) A stable Govt., and (iii) Finish the development projects it starts within time and budget.

Off topic, but read my signature.
How can you expect it to happen?

 

[ZaYYaF]

Off topic, but read my signature.
How can you expect it to happen?

I am sorry, I did not get your point. If you meant to say that no Govt. in power in Pakistan can be a stable Govt. in coming years, then I would have have to disagree to that. Awareness is the key, and of course lets be optimistic.

 

[Last Hope]

I am sorry, I did not get your point. If you meant to say that no Govt. in power in Pakistan can be a stable Govt. in coming years, then I would have have to disagree to that. Awareness is the key, and of course lets be optimistic.

Awarness is the key and i am using the key.
I asked you to kindly check the link in my signature below and then see the facts about how strong power the Mafia has on Government of Pakistan.

 

[ZaYYaF]

Awarness is the key and i am using the key.
I asked you to kindly check the link in my signature below and then see the facts about how strong power the Mafia has on Government of Pakistan.

Yes I have gone through the reading. And again I would assert on the word 'Awareness'. Especially among us, i.e the Youth of Pakistan. If we know the 'value' of law and order we can make police and the judiciary strong, instead of turning it into another type of mafia.

Sorry, lets get back to the topic at hand. Thanks.

 

[ajpirzada]

Sir Pakistan economic growth this year was 4.1% in june..next years means from 2010 june to 2011 june estimated is 4.7% or 5%.

we need atleast 6% by 2013.which is very much possible

nop. it will be somewhere bw 2 to 4%

i guess u r overlooking the flood effect. it is still open to debate. according to some quarter floods will take away 2% of our GDP growth this year while others say that there will be no effect due to better crop in coming months.

lets see