My take is that we'll average 6% over the next 5 years. We'll average 7% in the 5 after that, and anywhere from 8-10% in the 5 years after that.
My logic is that a couple of the GDP suppressors (floods, earthquakes) were "flukes" and statistically cannot be expected to repeat themselves over and over. So, assuming that these issues contributed to a 2-3% GDP growth impact, and also considering that we are growing at 4+% despite them, then the 6% average under similar political conditions, but improved environmental (as in acts of God) conditions should yield 6%.
Beyond this, we should start to see the benefits of an improved power infrastructure (availability of power to industry will continue to increase in the next 5 years), industries like IT and defence will be measurably substantial even at current rates of growth and deals on the table, and a more educated workforce will start to pay dividends. I say more educated because the literacy rate amongst 55-60 year old Pakistanis who will be retiring in the next 5 years, is lower than that amongst 13+ year old Pakistanis who will be entering the workforce in the next 5 years.
Beyond this 10 year period, we will have almost completely addressed power shortages, our irrigation and water management would have improved measurably (even assuming private sector initiatives), the fruits of many of the deals with Turkey/Iran (Istanbul-Tehran-Islamabad railway), China (transit trade, Gwadar) and the Oil Pipelines (IPC, TAPI) should be in full swing. The modernization of our agriculture sector and specifically the hunt for additional export markets for milk and meat products (e.g. the current nascent engagement with Malaysia) should also be more developed. Given that we are world's 5th largest milk producer with over 60 million animals in the country, these things can be hugely relevant.
Somewhere in the 5-10 year horizon, some solution would have materialized for Railways, PIA and so on. These will be draws for FDI as the telecom sector has been.
I am pretty confident that the estimates above are very conservative. The IMF's regional director is on record as stating that Pakistan's potential for GDP growth is 8+%, so I am not the only one saying these things.
If we do a couple of even slightly intelligent things, such as mandates for agricultural modernization aided by subsidies, we can grow our GDP easily at 10+%. But I am assuming in all my estimates above that there is no substantial change in the competence level of the Government in power.