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Pakistan's GDP next 10-20 years?

the model for Pakistan should be Gujarat model...a state that has seen so much natural and human calamities...is almost dry without water...and have same geographical conditions as south Pakistan....is developing at the rate of 11% from a decade!!!!!
 
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What I am trying to say is Pakistan should track back to the right path It would save us estimated $500billion GDP vs current now $166 billion is not what I expect

Yes, we have the 'advanced' nukes but airforces, navies, and other defence capables should be cut or delay in order to increase dramatically economy before we can discuss another 'advanced' fifth-generation jet (J-XX/F-35s), another nuclear submarines, bigger frigates, Satellites, so on. Great progress example is Turkey.

Be optimistic, assertives, humbles and learn respects! :cheers:

You know what, you have a point that very few Pakistanis will understand.

The nukes were developed because Pakistan could not compare to India in conventional arms. They were developed so that even though Pak won't have a powerful army, but it would have a deterrence which would avoid any misadventure from the Indian side.

But now Pakistan wants a powerful army to complement the nukes. :blink:
That itself defeats the purpose of the nukes, doesn't it?

Right now, Pakistan needs to stabalize its economy first. Its in grave danger. This is the time when the developing countries can progress very quickly because there is a world order change going on. Once the change has been made, and China and India are leaders of the world, there will be no opportunities left.

So now is the time when Pak needs to invest in its resources and people, and make something of its economy. For a small country, its much easier to sustain a high growth rate, and Pakistan should be doing 9-11% annually.

Just divert 50% of defense expenditure on education and infra, and you will see things change.

The defense budget you see is not all that goes into defense, its just the money with which purchases are made. The salaries, maintenance, R&D, Nukes, all that budget is hidden. No one knows how much goes into it. It has to be in billions of dollars.

Similarly in India, we are not spending much on nuclear bombs, but more on our economy. Pak is still hell bent on producing more and more nuclear bombs, I don't know why. Pakistan has more bombs than us now. No wonder why the economy is in a mess.

Pakk should develop for another 2 decades, and then try these nukes and all sorts of defense expenditures. They will have enough money, and power too try that then.
 
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You know what, you have a point that very few Pakistanis will understand.

The nukes were developed because Pakistan could not compare to India in conventional arms. They were developed so that even though Pak won't have a powerful army, but it would have a deterrence which would avoid any misadventure from the Indian side.

But now Pakistan wants a powerful army to complement the nukes. :blink:
That itself defeats the purpose of the nukes, doesn't it?

Right now, Pakistan needs to stabalize its economy first. Its in grave danger. This is the time when the developing countries can progress very quickly because there is a world order change going on. Once the change has been made, and China and India are leaders of the world, there will be no opportunities left.

So now is the time when Pak needs to invest in its resources and people, and make something of its economy. For a small country, its much easier to sustain a high growth rate, and Pakistan should be doing 9-11% annually.

Just divert 50% of defense expenditure on education and infra, and you will see things change.

The defense budget you see is not all that goes into defense, its just the money with which purchases are made. The salaries, maintenance, R&D, Nukes, all that budget is hidden. No one knows how much goes into it. It has to be in billions of dollars.

Similarly in India, we are not spending much on nuclear bombs, but more on our economy. Pak is still hell bent on producing more and more nuclear bombs, I don't know why. Pakistan has more bombs than us now. No wonder why the economy is in a mess.

Pakk should develop for another 2 decades, and then try these nukes and all sorts of defense expenditures. They will have enough money, and power too try that then.

Sorry to say your points are "Horn on deaf ears"...:cheers:
 
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lets focus on Pakistan only... keep that defense budget separate. We need defense cause our adversaries are making new deals everyday. We need something to protect ourselves. Period

All nations have defense budget between 2 - 9%. So our current budget of around 2.6% is perfect. No need to do anything with it
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Focus on economy keeping positive aspects in mind :D
 
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lets focus on Pakistan only... keep that defense budget separate. We need defense cause our adversaries are making new deals everyday. We need something to protect ourselves. Period

All nations have defense budget between 2 - 9%. So our current budget of around 2.6% is perfect. No need to do anything with it
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Focus on economy keeping positive aspects in mind :D

Your current defence budget(as a % of GDP) is way higher than that...

Pakistan defence budget sanctioned at the beginning of this year was Rs 445 Billion but this does not include the budget sanctioned for WOT and pensions of retired employs which amounts to Rs 227 Billion.

Hence total defence budget would have been 445+227=672 Billion but coalition support fund gives your army about Rs150 billion every year to fight WOT ..hence this amount can be removed from the total defence budget 672-150=522 billion.

After floods this year Pakistani government introduced a mid term budget in which it gave another 110 Billion to your armed forces.

so total is 522+110= 632 Billion which translates too $7.4 Billion(exchange rate 85).

As % of GDP which comes out to 4.2 % of GDP($ 177 Billion)
 
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Let's not waste time with Indians, shall we. They always blame our defence budget for any problem. Very predictable. More importantly though, they're always coming up with the wrong causal arguments.

Why didn't the defence budget affect growth rate from 2002-2007? There are other reasons why that we're having problems with economy, and it's already been discussed. WoT, floods, earthquake, etc. 4% is the global average for defence spending. This will fall on deaf ears. You know that we're expecting 6% growth rate in 2012 and 7% in 2014 still with 4% of our GDP going toward defence spending? It's no outrageous defence spending.

Like I mentioned previously, they always show a pessimistic outlook on Pakistan. We know why that is, but the important thing is to ignore them, not waste time on them.
 
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I would not know how much of a threat India is? However, Pakistan is certainly creating an imagined enemy that seems 10 times more powerful than India. To counter it Pakistan is investing heavily into Nuke and their launch pads. GDP cannot grow anywhere near 10% without trade and external investments. Unfortunately, both are the functions of the prevailing macroeconomic environment and peace; moreover, there is also a trade off between Guns and Bread
 
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Here we go with the typical illogical Indian crap. Guys, please give it a break. Keep it for BR.

Our defence spending of 4% of our GDP (again, the global average) is not the problem. Furthermore, 4% is nothing extraordinary. We know the real reason why Indians would rather have us reduce our defence spending. That's another topic, but that is that. Please cut the crap about defence spending and no more crap on defence spending.

There are time where I may half-agree with Indians, but here they are 100% incorrect.
 
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How can we have a 2% growth in this era?

We are already doing better and for coming years to 2014 its predict to reach 5%+.

2% is no growth.. thats would rather be a bad news
and given a little improvement in political & terrorism scene, we would easily be doing 6.5+ like we did in first of half of this decade!

And the ground realities are:

Power projects are on their way (which would cover the led down we had bcoz of power shortages), dams under construction on the other hand would also contribute for better water supply & additional land would be available for cultivation which was left barren.

Terrorism's graph is also going down, plus we are given privileges from EU and other countries for trade. Our economy has already performend better in 09-10 than 07-08.

And we already had a big surplus in cotton of 1million bales excluding the additional surplus of 1million which was destroyed by floods. Also, floods and volcanic activites improve the fertility of land in the following years,

So keeping all this in mind, now even if the terrorism or political situation remains the same, We will still do better in the coming years.
 
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Mate, do the math from 2011 to 2012. It's 6% growth, which is what we're predicting.

Also, I predict WoT to end around 2014, so I don't see what IMF thinks 'differently'. They predict 7% growth rate from 2013 to 2014.

Besides, I tend to take these predictions not too seriously and rather choose to look at ground reality as a predictor. WoT ending will significantly help, whereas the effects of floods will last maybe 1 more year. By 2012, we should definitely be at 6% (same as IMF prediction, but I didn't arrive at my figure by looking at IMF predictions).

I know how you are calculating the above figure(which is wrong) ..you are not taking inflation in account..as a result the % which you are calculating is actually GDP growth plus economic inflation.

Indicators for PAKISTAN

refer to "Pakistan percent change in GDP at constant prices" for year 2010 and 2015 under "IMF Data & Forecasts" to get predicted growth rates.
 
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All right man whatever. You're right, but nevertheless, I don't take such economic predictions seriously. They make a lot of assumptions that never turn out to be true. The case of Pakistan is different in that there are various things happening which are probably not being taken into account.
 
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All right man whatever. You're right, but nevertheless, I don't take such economic predictions seriously. They make a lot of assumptions that never turn out to be true. The case of Pakistan is different in that there are various things happening which are probably not being taken into account.

Oops! A 'Bharti' is actually right this time.:azn:

Looks like someone here is very experienced with what happens on BR.
 
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And what point are you trying to make exactly that is relevant?
 
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