Pakistan - Turkey (PAC-TAI) Collaboration for NGFA-TFX 5th Gen Aircraft l Updates, News & Discussion

[Corax]

IMO there's a middle road wherein the PN would own a carrier and the PAF would own the fighters or jet-UCAVs. This way, each side is responsible for the maintenance, training, and utilization of their respective asset. IIRC this is basically the approach the USMC and USN take.

Let's be realistic, a carrier is out of the question, not just in terms of resources, but also in terms of operational interoperability and limited efficacy in the South Asian scenario without the required force multiplier assets and envelop. To neuter the indian carriers, better off with long range anti ship ballistic missiles, a dense C4I network (including aerial and space based assets), and real time acquisition and targeting. Heck, it's even questionable whether the indians can operate their carriers with the adequate support assets needed, let alone Pakistan. A cursory look at how the US carriers operate and the support assets needed (surface, sub-surface, C4I, aerial, and space-based) shows what's needed to make effective use of carriers, otherwise they become too vulnerable. In today's high intensity, dissimilar, digital warfare, the impact of cheap weapons in large numbers provide greater effectiveness against legacy capital platforms and their associated doctrines.

 

[Edevelop]

Let's be realistic, a carrier is out of the question, not just in terms of resources, but also in terms of operational interoperability and limited efficacy in the South Asian scenario without the required force multiplier assets and envelop. To neuter the indian carriers, better off with long range anti ship ballistic missiles, a dense C4I network (including aerial and space based assets), and real time acquisition and targeting. Heck, it's even questionable whether the indians can operate their carriers with the adequate support assets needed, let alone Pakistan. A cursory look at how the US carriers operate and the support assets needed (surface, sub-surface, C4I, aerial, and space-based) shows what's needed to make effective use of carriers, otherwise they become too vulnerable. In today's high intensity, dissimilar, digital warfare, the impact of cheap weapons in large numbers provide greater effectiveness against legacy capital platforms and their associated doctrines.

But we have to keep in mind that India is a huge country. Our border with them is half their size. They have real strategic depth spreading near Sri Lanka and they have bases overseas as well like in Mauritius, Oman, Seychelles, and Maldives. I’ll say realistically 15-20 years from now we could have a carrier with drones like the TCG Anadolu. For now our tactics are defensive but if economy improves there would be no reason to be defensive

 

[TheSolution]

But we have to keep in mind that India is a huge country. Our border with them is half their size. They have real strategic depth spreading near Sri Lanka and they have bases overseas as well like in Mauritius, Oman, Seychelles, and Maldives. I’ll say realistically 15-20 years from now we could have a carrier with drones like the TCG Anadolu

We need to focus on the economy for any such dream to materialise (heck, even to sustain the military we currently have)

We've never tried to exceed India in raw metrics because it makes no sense considering their larger size, but we must maintain proportional parity and effective deterrence - this has and will always be possible

 

[HRK]

Navy doesn't really need them anyway. Countering the IAFs carrier aircraft doesnt start in the sky, rather, it starts underwater

partially agree with your statement as fighter aircraft for PN should not be considered as counter of IN aircraft carrier but as asset to Impose writ of PN in EEZ and area of interest near EEZ of Pakistan from the sky.

 

[arslank03]

partially agree with your statement as fighter aircraft for PN should not be considered as counter of IN aircraft carrier but as asset to Impose write of PN in EEZ and area of interest near EEZ of Pakistan from the sky.

For something like this the PN can do this from the shores, a carrier is a waste of assets, need escorts, subs etc, too much going on. PN could procure a squadron of fighters PURELY for that role (though the PAF already does this anyway) based out of Mehran or Masroor, not sure what they would buy but yeah

 

[Edevelop]

We need to focus on the economy for any such dream to materialise (heck, even to sustain the military we currently have)

We've never tried to exceed India in raw metrics because it makes no sense considering their larger size, but we must maintain proportional parity and effective deterrence - this has and will always be possible

For sure. Without economy nothing can be materialized.

Obviously India is a big country and it always had a numerical edge and I'd say we don't need to compete in regards to that. But at the same time we don't want to stay pat or defensive for very long because they have surrounded us with bases in Tajikistan, Iran, Oman, Seychelles, Mauritius, and Maldives.

We need to deepen ties with countries whom we have strategic ties with.

China is not going anywhere and it's no secret we depend on them and they depend on us because India is our common rival.

With Saudi Arabia we should deepen our ties even further. They are not like the other gulf Arabs. Still they are more conservative and they depend on us to some degree for its defence and this is evident as we have had ground troops stationed there for decades.

With Turkiye for some reason it is special as if we are a Turkic country like Azerbaijan. The Turks get to project their power which it long desired since the Ottomans and by transfer tech and giving Pakistan the rights to production, costs can be reduced significantly which can be beneficial to both countries and I believe this will happen because personally I've seen turks are really entrepreneurial and unorthodox to get things done.

 

[Corax]

But we have to keep in mind that India is a huge country. Our border with them is half their size. They have real strategic depth spreading near Sri Lanka and they have bases overseas as well like in Mauritius, Oman, Seychelles, and Maldives. I’ll say realistically 15-20 years from now we could have a carrier with drones like the TCG Anadolu. For now our tactics are defensive but if economy improves there would be no reason to be defensive

As long as we keep their Navy afar and from disrupting our SLOCs, that would contain them. In addition, how would having a PN aircraft carrier operating as far away as Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Oman, Seychelles, and the Maldives be any less vulnerable to the indians?! Do you really think having just one PN aircraft carrier that far out, without adequate air cover, ABM capable guided cruisers to provide a missile shield and long range subs will last that long?! If you really want to strike the indin vessels that far away, take a lesson from the Iranians and develop long range ballistic AShM with hypersonic terminal manoeuvring MIRVs to overwhelm their missile defences, far cheaper and more effective.

 

[Edevelop]

As long as we keep their Navy afar and from disrupting our SLOCs, that would contain them. In addition, how would having a PN aircraft carrier operating as far away as Sri Lanka, Mauritius, Oman, Seychelles, and the Maldives be any less vulnerable to the indians?! Do you really think having just one PN aircraft carrier that far out, without adequate air cover, ABM capable guided cruisers to provide a missile shield and long range subs will last that long?! If you really want to strike the indin vessels that far away, take a lesson from the Iranians and develop long range ballistic AShM with hypersonic terminal manoeuvring MIRVs to overwhelm their missile defences, far cheaper and more effective.

Pakistan's missile program was always ahead of India's. But in the last decade we haven't been able to do much. We have no answer to Brahmos and we allowed it to land on our soil last year. We have failed to develop our missile program to the level we hoped and now looking to buy off the shelf from China and Turkiye. Drones are the future and are cost effective. We are buying TB2s and Akıncı for a reason and we even got to see a glimpse of the kemankeş cruise missile in Pakistan as well. So this tells me we want to move into that direction and maybe this is the direction the Navy should go into. Having a carrier would be a plus

 

[Corax]

Pakistan's missile program was always ahead of India's. But in the last decade we haven't been able to do much. We have no answer to Brahmos and we allowed it to land on our soil last year. We have failed to develop our missile program to the level we hoped and now looking to buy off the shelf from China and Turkiye. Drones are the future and are cost effective. We are buying TB2s and Akıncı for a reason and we even got to see a glimpse of the kemankeş cruise missile in Pakistan as well. So this tells me we want to move into that direction and maybe this is the direction the Navy should go into. Having a carrier would be a plus

You don't counter a weapon system with a similar weapon system. To counter the brahmos, you invest in a dense sensor and C4I network, and overlapping air defence systems. To counter an aircraft carrier, you don't pursue your own aircraft carrier. These are meant for projecting force. You counter an aircraft carrier with systems designed to locate, track, and destroy it.

 

[TheSolution]

For sure. Without economy nothing can be materialized.

Obviously India is a big country and it always had a numerical edge and I'd say we don't need to compete in regards to that. But at the same time we don't want to stay pat or defensive for very long because they have surrounded us with bases in Tajikistan, Iran, Oman, Seychelles, Mauritius, and Maldives.

We need to deepen ties with countries whom we have strategic ties with.

China is not going anywhere and it's no secret we depend on them and they depend on us because India is our common rival.

With Saudi Arabia we should deepen our ties even further. They are not like the other gulf Arabs. Still they are more conservative and they depend on us to some degree for its defence and this is evident as we have had ground troops stationed there for decades.

With Turkiye for some reason it is special as if we are a Turkic country like Azerbaijan. The Turks get to project their power which it long desired since the Ottomans and by transfer tech and giving Pakistan the rights to production, costs can be reduced significantly which can be beneficial to both countries and I believe this will happen because personally I've seen turks are really entrepreneurial and unorthodox to get things done.

You're right, Turks are incredibly hardworking and put in the effort when they set out to achieve a goal, they pay attention to every minor detail and make sure to meet exceptional quality standards.

I hope Pakistan learns some positive traits from them in this regard, if we could pick up healthy habits like this to create a positive culture for R&D - in the long term this would be even more beneficial than just getting ToT for a couple projects here and there.

We don't lack talent (we push it away if anything) or even money in the long-term, we lack a meritocratic environment, proper planning and efficient resource management. This is the most important. India built a good foundation for this over the years.

Our relationship with them is shaky though, many of them were not happy with our collaborations so Pakistan needs to get its act together ASAP before this window closes completely.

 

[python-000]

KAAN replacing F-16s in the Air Force makes a lot of sense...

If our economy in 2030 and beyond gets better maybe our Naval Air Arm can consider something as well.

At some point they got to do something to counter Indian Navy which has traditionally been dominant and now looking to expand its influence in the region and beyond. They got 2 aircraft carriers with Mig-29Ks, Tejas, and Rafale Ms. For me the J-35 or Kızılelma are ideal options for the Navy and if I'm being a fanboy maybe a TCG Anadolu as well.

Exactly J-35 & KAAN both can become a Main backbone of our Air Force...

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

Pakistan shouldn't ignore the "engine" part of the program too! Now that around 300 engineers are working on KAAN's engine to finalize the detailed design as per Prof Aksit, TEI's CEO, it's the right time to give some inputs and be a part of it. Please note that TEI is modelled after GE, which owns 49% of it. It means there is a "library of parts" available and being constantly improved. To be included into the "library" each part is individually designed, fabricated and tested to be qualified for the specified performance and reliability. Once the design is ready you just pick and plug the parts to implement your desired design. And, then test it as a whole system as it's manufactured using the latest "recipes". No "Asian" style shortcuts are allowed; only the "Prusssian" work ethics are followed. Aero engines are no jokes from the "brown" folks, it's the "White Man's" adobe.....

 

[TheSolution]

Pakistan shouldn't ignore the "engine" part of the program too! Now that around 300 engineers are working on KAAN's engine to finalize the detailed design as per Prof Aksit, TEI's CEO, it's the right time to give some inputs and be a part of it. Please note that TEI is modelled after GE, which owns 49% of it. It means there is a "library of parts" available and being constantly improved. To be included into the "library" each part is individually designed, fabricated and tested to be qualified for the specified performance and reliability. Once the design is ready you just pick and plug the parts to implement your desired design. And, then test it as a whole system as it's manufactured using the latest "recipes". No "Asian" style shortcuts are allowed; only the "Prusssian" work ethics are followed. Aero engines are no jokes from the "brown" folks, it's the "White Man's" adobe.....

I hope we can somehow secure a licensed production deal for the engines to at least provide for our own fleet (if we get this aircraft that is)

 

[Goku-kun]

It renews automatically month-to-month. You can unsubscribe manually, or email me (bilal@quwa.org) your email and I'll do it for you. The publication days have changed from Sunday/Monday for this month, but this week's article will come out today and the next this Sunday. It'll be back to normal from then on, but you'll have 4 articles this month as normal.

why would I unsubscribe with such quality defence site but I also don't wanna purchase every month.Thanks for answering.

 

[CivilianSupremacy]

Affordability is definitely an obstacle, for sure, but PAF's procurement doctrine never plans for a couple dozen fighters as it cannot afford the induction costs for so few units. The only time the PAF procured a few units of an aircraft type were due to aid -- e.g., F-104 -- and even then you could argue the procurement roadmap was actually cut short due to sanctions (1965 War).

E.g., when the PAF sought the A-7, it told the U.S. it wanted 114 aircraft, even though the A-7 was a specialized attack platform. Likewise, when the PAF spoke to Dassault in the 1990s for the M2K/-5, the PAF made it clear that it was planning to buy at least 80 units through multiple batches. Interestingly, the PAF F-16 program was supposed to reach around 160 aircraft (110 Block-15s and 50 Block-32/42).

Yes, the KAAN will be a very sophisticated and capable fighter, but the PAF will never go for a couple dozen; in that case, it'd look to fulfill the same role via a lower cost option. Sure, fiscal limits likely would put a cap on KAAN induction, but wherever possible, the PAF will do what it can to reach that 90-unit base. It's an investment that'll span for some 50 and, in all likelihood, production will probably be open for 20-30 years at least.

The key for KAAN's affordability will be driving economies-of-scale, so, it's imperative that Turkiye secure new partners or commitments. Besides Azerbaijan and Pakistan, I think there could be an opportunity to engage Algeria and Kazakhstan (as they traditionally bought from Russia). If they can collectively drive 1000+ units, then I think larger KAAN orders should be in reach.

I think you misunderstood the part where I said a dozen KAANs. I was specifically saying that with respect to the timeline of 2040. As my original reply was in response to the post talking about PAF in 2040. In your reply, you are suggesting that PAF will have 90 KAANs. I can agree to that in a far off future post 2050 scenario. But I simply fail to understand how we can have budget or even production of that many aircrafts by 2040. By 2040 I believe many of the F-16s would be still flying (which are supposedly to be replaced). Yes I agree if you are talking without any timelines then ofcourse who would want JF-17s, J-10Cs, F-16 from 40 years from now and PAF would commit to the platform that it opted for to replace these aircrafts. However, by that time lot could change. As I already explained in my post earlier that unmanned systems will mature to a lot degree. With AI and unmanned aircrafts getting relevance the traditional numbers of manned aircrafts will significantly reduce. For-example if PAF had 80 F-16s then replacement may not be 80 KAANs. I can forsee AI enabled UCAVs entering in aerial warfare in the timelines we are talking about. Even in today's scenario, We have perhaps around 130 Mirages still in service. Instead all 130 being replaced by equivalent 130 JF-17s / J-10Cs. We could see 100 JF-17s / J-10Cs and a squadron of AKINI or other type of UCAVs capable to do strikes. As Mirage's role is purely a launch platform for H2s / H4s and other stand off munition.

IMO there's a middle road wherein the PN would own a carrier and the PAF would own the fighters or jet-UCAVs. This way, each side is responsible for the maintenance, training, and utilization of their respective asset. IIRC this is basically the approach the USMC and USN take.

Among all the three forces, I want to see the PN becomes really strong. Dominance in the sea is really important. An LHD would definitely help in the influence and projection. That is not to fight IN. But to show our presence and making ourselves relevant. However, this is entirly directly proportional to economic revival. The way things are today and still going further down with each day passing, honestly I don't see PN getting any such asset in foreseeable future. The economic & political instability caused by the GHQ, removal of elected govt with 5 year mandate, brain drain, cash outflow, investors losing complete interest, factories shutdown, startups closures and the demoralizing effect on the investors and entire nation. So too many Ifs are added now. Even the economic revival cannot happen without drastic changes. and there is little to no hope for those drastic changes taking place with people in charge of Pakistan today.