What if India goes on a massive conventional bombing campaign across Pakistan using missiles and long range artillery and rockets (brahmos episode times 1000 and on steroids), how would Pakistan deter them without going nuclear?
This sort of campaign is going to lead to the international isolation of India, because not only is it acting like a rogue state testing the limits of nuclear war, it is also an act of terrorism which will result in the deaths of hundreds of foreigners.
Pakistan deters them by threatening them to retaliate with 3 times the conventional force; and if that is impossible, then by definition, you have entered the nuclear territory.
Nothing scares Indians more than the thought of their bharat mata being turned into a giant dish of radiocative roasted beef.
In the future Pakistani conventional offensive capability will be easily co-opted with missile defense and next gen A2AD capability that India's much larger economy and unfettered access to western tech will be able to afford.
Pakistan is getting KAAN.
In other words Pakistan is screwed big time unless it wants to go nuclear in response to any conventional strikes from India...
This has been the reality for a long time. Swift retort was such a big deal because it made the world realise Pakistan does have the conventional capability to fight and win under the full war threshold.
Hindutva forces have checkmated sepoys, more so on the political/economic front then the increasingly inconsequential kinetic battlefield.
Pakistan has done a terrible job on the soft power front - how does some Bihari or Dravidian get to lay claim to the inventions of the Peshawar valley? How is the country which supported Mukhti Bahini, LTTE, TTP, BLA etc. not considered a terrorist state, but the one who provides diplomatic support to non-terrorist fighters in disputed territory is?
Sepoys failed to take advantage of the lopsided favorable scenario when IA was defeated in '62 and all they had to was walk into Kashmir and take it, what hope is there now or anytime in the future.
They instead chose to wait 3 years, walk into Kutch, had another opportuinty with Grand Slam which they ruined by changing command at the last minute.
In 1947, a single armoured car squad could've taken all of Kahsmir, had Jinnah's orders been obeyed.
Pakistan has goals to occupy Kashmir according to what it claims.
Pakistan has not claimed this.
Not exactly a "massive" portion but it is territory under their control nonetheless.
Maybe if Modi tries to occupy border areas in Baltistan, Pakistan will return the favour in Jammu and Kashmir - but that is just a skirmish, not a full war.
And yes, Pakistan has no reason to copy every acquisition India makes, I don't believe that either.
But even maintaining a proportional and credible deterrence against India is becoming difficult for Pakistan due to its failing economy.
170+ Pakistani nuclear weapons are aimed at every city, town, and village in India. That is enough deterrence.
Fighting skirmishes like 27th feb with limited numbers of high tech platforms is not expensive at all.
Regrading the field of R&D, there is literally no excuse for a nation of 220mil+ and growing to not develop a sustainable indigenous R&D ecosystem to satisfy its defence needs and even export. But this is also related to a healthy economy and correct policy decisions.
Agreed.
