Pakistan seeks explanation about Inu's Baluchistan remarks

[Nike]

Let him be, he has some wild ideas without undestanding basic economics first.

not even Chinese member had such claims eventhough they had every rights to do that

 

[volatile]

I am not sure on how Balochistan can surpasses the likes of Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Hongkong, Jakarta, Mumbai in 2025, in which all of them had a bigger GDP than an entire Pakistan. It's very wrong to underestimated the Asian economy weight.

for Start Chinese are pushing all their manufacturing units to these areas

You really think CPEC "investment" of best case scenario of 46 billion USD over a decade will turn Baluchistan into say Hong Kong? Do you even know what is the total infra and human capital investment cost in even a small part of Hong Kong? Hint: its way way more than 46 billion and concentrated in much smaller area.

THis is obviously not going to happened in a year 46 Billion US$ is just for 5 years till 2018 ,with more than 50,000 MW of energy coming up in next 10 years all this energy for 2nd half of after these investments

 

[Nilgiri]

for Start Chinese are pushing all their manufacturing units to these areas

You realise thats going to take a lot more loans than just 45 billion (spread over 10 years)? Those loans are mostly covering the basic infra too rather than capital goods (I hope you know what a capital good is).

India for example capital good market size is around 300 billion + right now, more than 100 billion USD imported each year, domestic production around 250 billion USD and exports of capital goods around 60 billion USD.

Here is a white paper on it:

http://dhi.nic.in/writereaddata/Content/NationalCapitalGoodsPolicy2016.pdf

Now can you show me a similar white paper for capital goods in Pakistan? That will illustrate to anyone how much "manufacturing units" are actually being projected in numbers and then we have something to compare rather than just words.

 

[volatile]

You realise thats going to take a lot more loans than just 45 billion (spread over 10 years)? Those loans are mostly covering the basic infra too rather than capital goods (I hope you know what a capital good is).

Its Chinese investments /loans for first stage to make necessary infrastructure like roads/bridges/rail lines and port ,2nd phase shifting of industrial complexes to Pakistan ,Did you ever wondered why all of a sudden Pak is looking to add more than 50,000 MW additional in coming 10 years where as over average consumption per capita will remain on the lower side

India for example capital good market size is around 300 billion + right now, more than 100 billion USD imported each year, domestic production around 250 billion USD and exports of capital goods around 60 billion USD.

Here is a white paper on it:

http://dhi.nic.in/writereaddata/Content/NationalCapitalGoodsPolicy2016.pdf

Thank you for this information ,Goods produced in Pakistan by Chinese companies will be not for Pakistan but for export already many Engineering products are now assembled in Pakistan due to lower labour cost than China

Now can you show me a similar white paper for capital goods in Pakistan? That will illustrate to anyone how much "manufacturing units" are actually being projected in numbers and then we have something to compare rather than just words.

It will be off topic to discuss economics to remarks on Baluchistan any ways my above point has made clear where these goods are going to be used ,more like Malaysia/Indonesia model (Japanese plants)

 

[Khan_21]

I am not sure on how Balochistan can surpasses the likes of Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Hongkong, Jakarta, Mumbai in 2025, in which all of them had a bigger GDP than an entire Pakistan. It's very wrong to underestimated the Asian economy weight.

@volatile @Nilgiri

Even Maharastra's economy is $280 Billion which is less than Pakistan. So how is mumbai alone more than Pakistan? Dont pull out facts from your behind.

 

[I.R.A]

I am not sure on how Balochistan can surpasses the likes of Singapore, Shanghai, Tokyo, Hongkong, Jakarta, Mumbai in 2025, in which all of them had a bigger GDP than an entire Pakistan. It's very wrong to underestimated the Asian economy weight.

@volatile @Nilgiri

Is any of the city you named rich in

• Gold (Reko diq) probably world's biggest gold mine
• Natural Gas
• Copper
• Valuable Stones
• Potential reserves of Petroleum
• Coal
• Chromite
• Barytes
  
• Sulphur
  
• Marble
  
• Iron Ore
  
• Quartzite
  
• Limestone and many more
• Potential for a tourist destination

Plus a deep sea port?

That province is rich with untapped mineral resources, all it lacks is a bit of stability and you will see how it transforms. Google sometime Balochistan and natural resources and you will know.

 

[Nilgiri]

Its Chinese investments /loans for first stage to make necessary infrastructure like roads/bridges/rail lines and port ,2nd phase shifting of industrial complexes to Pakistan ,Did you ever wondered why all of a sudden Pak is looking to add more than 50,000 MW additional in coming 10 years where as over average consumption per capita will remain on the lower side

Even with the 50,000 MW addition, this is still not going to make you anywhere close to beating "any city in Asia".....which have per capita consumption 10 times or more than that of Pakistan (even with 50 GW addition).

Thank you for this information ,Goods produced in Pakistan by Chinese companies will be not for Pakistan but for export already many Engineering products are now assembled in Pakistan due to lower labour cost than China

You seem to not understand what capital goods are. They are any good not for individual consumption but large machinery etc for making other goods (for internal use or export).

Unless there is a component in CPEC that deals with capital goods specifically or a projection analysis somewhere on what the amounts are supposed to be.....there is simply too much assumption in saying "manufacturing" will move in "large quantity" to Pakistan. 50% of your secondary school cohort ARE OUT of school....that means half your future human resource is going to waste right at the onset....and you are claiming in this 45 billion USD there is going to be any major transfer of capital goods from China to Pakistan?

Pakistan currently imports about 8 billion of Capital goods a year:

http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...r/MPRT-TRD-VL/Partner/All/Product/UNCTAD-SoP4

Sorry but that is puny given that your local production is also near non-existent.

Compare this with 300 billion consumption of India in capital goods.

Why is it so anaemic for Pakistan? It is because your GCF is very low at 15% (if you know what that means). Beyond basic roads, buildings etc...there is very little left over for Pakistan to acquire and invest into the factors of production (capital goods).

Hence why even the textiles industry is stagnant and even declining now.

CPEC is not going to solve this suddenly in 10 years. 45 billion injection over this time period is very little esp given its mostly loans and not FDI.

Even Maharastra's economy is $280 Billion which is less than Pakistan. So how is mumbai alone more than Pakistan? Dont put out facts from your behind.

In 2014-15 FY Maharastra GDP was around 275 billion USD, large part of it from Mumbai. Pakistan GDP in this year was 243 billion at current prices.

EDIT: Pakistan is larger than Mumbai GDP (nominal or PPP) though. I will agree on it.

 

[volatile]

Even with the 50,000 MW addition, this is still not going to make you anywhere close to beating "any city in Asia".....which have per capita consumption 10 times or more than that of Pakistan (even with 50 GW addition).

Its a start and already envisioned for (It takes time obviously but more importantly at the moment all ground work are in right direction).

You seem to not understand what capital goods are. They are any good not for individual consumption but large machinery etc for making other goods (for internal use or export).

I have majors in Finance/Economics i understand completely what you are referring to these consumption data are for Pakistan like of 8 Billion US$ in import for Pakistan only even then lots of FG are being imported on top of that as Power hampers the local manufacturing ,Now Pak is 200 Mil + people and still adequate power and non industrialization resulted in shortfall of exports .

50% of your secondary school cohort ARE OUT of school....that means half your future human resource is going to waste right at the onset....and you are claiming in this 45 billion USD there is going to be any major transfer of capital goods from China to Pakistan?

That is why Punjab have there own Tevta / Federal GOvt have there own Skill development programmes ,between 400,000 to 500,000 graduates coming out every year from the last 3 years Govt is working on short program to meet up skills required to absorb all this ,at the moment most of these students are going abroad for work but idea is to develop local youth with these programs

Compare this with 300 billion consumption of India in capital goods.Why is it so anaemic for Pakistan? It is because your GCF is very low at 15% (if you know what that means). Beyond basic roads, buildings etc...there is very little left over for Pakistan to acquire and invest into the factors of production (capital goods).

India is almost 6 times in population to Pakistan so definately resources and other variables are always in favour for India e.g current GDP accounts for 2,000 Mil US$ for India with population of 1,100 Mil earning per capita is still very low nearing 1800 US $ ,for Pakistan GDP is 270 Billion US $ (Documented) with 25% in tax net .

 

[Nilgiri]

Its a start and already envisioned for (It takes time obviously but more importantly at the moment all ground work are in right direction).

Thats very different from you saying that in 10 years it will be more developed than Tokyo/HK/Shanghai....even Mumbai and Delhi. Lets not kid ourselves.

India is almost 6 times in population to Pakistan so definately resources and other variables are always in favour for India e.g current GDP accounts for 2,000 Mil US$ for India with population of 1,100 Mil earning per capita is still very low nearing 1800 US $ ,for Pakistan GDP is 270 Billion US $ (Documented) with 25% in tax net .

Per capita physical consumption in India is estimated by IMF at 6600 USD and 5100 USD for Pakistan in 2016 (i.e 30% higher per person in India)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=35&pr.y=4&sy=2010&ey=2021&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=564,534&s=PPPPC&grp=0&a=

Back in 2010 there was barely any difference, and by 2020 it will be more than 40% higher in India per person and keep continuing to pull away.

I don't care about nominal exchange rate that you are quoting given overvaluing/undervaluing of currency w.r.t USD and the fact domestic price levels are more important to a country than US price levels. Besides even in this measure India is ahead now and pulling away.

Also all of this does not change the fact that Pakistan's capital good consumption is very low. It should be around 40 - 50 billion dollars in yearly size (to have same per capita fundamentals as India currently)....but all that can be found is that it has import of 8 billion (and I assume local production is negligible unless you can prove me wrong).

Maybe you can show me a paper or study that states the size of capital goods industry in Pakistan right now with a projection of how it is expected to grow in next 10 years under CPEC? Surely someone has done this study somewhere? I can't find a current size anywhere (beyond import amount) much less a projection.

Is it stated anywhere how much of the 46 billion loan from China under CPEC will cover capital goods import from Chinese overcapacity etc?

 

[Major Sam]

Even with the 50,000 MW addition, this is still not going to make you anywhere close to beating "any city in Asia".....which have per capita consumption 10 times or more than that of Pakistan (even with 50 GW addition).



You seem to not understand what capital goods are. They are any good not for individual consumption but large machinery etc for making other goods (for internal use or export).

Unless there is a component in CPEC that deals with capital goods specifically or a projection analysis somewhere on what the amounts are supposed to be.....there is simply too much assumption in saying "manufacturing" will move in "large quantity" to Pakistan. 50% of your secondary school cohort ARE OUT of school....that means half your future human resource is going to waste right at the onset....and you are claiming in this 45 billion USD there is going to be any major transfer of capital goods from China to Pakistan?

Pakistan currently imports about 8 billion of Capital goods a year:

http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...r/MPRT-TRD-VL/Partner/All/Product/UNCTAD-SoP4

Sorry but that is puny given that your local production is also near non-existent.

Compare this with 300 billion consumption of India in capital goods.

Why is it so anaemic for Pakistan? It is because your GCF is very low at 15% (if you know what that means). Beyond basic roads, buildings etc...there is very little left over for Pakistan to acquire and invest into the factors of production (capital goods).

Hence why even the textiles industry is stagnant and even declining now.

CPEC is not going to solve this suddenly in 10 years. 45 billion injection over this time period is very little esp given its mostly loans and not FDI.



In 2014-15 FY Maharastra GDP was around 275 billion USD, large part of it from Mumbai. Pakistan GDP in this year was 243 billion at current prices.

EDIT: Pakistan is larger than Mumbai GDP (nominal or PPP) though. I will agree on it.

Please correct Capital Goods import by india in year 2014 is USD 73B and in 2015 is USD 79B. While pakistan is USD 8.1B. which is in proportion with our GDP difference.

Next time please check before providing wrong figures.

One more thing while indian Capital Goods import is stagnant from USD 75B in 2011 to USD 79B with little bit variation. Pakistan has jumped from USD 6.1B to 8.1 with no decrease in between.
http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...r/MPRT-TRD-VL/Partner/ALL/Product/UNCTAD-SoP4

Thats very different from you saying that in 10 years it will be more developed than Tokyo/HK/Shanghai....even Mumbai and Delhi. Lets not kid ourselves.



Per capita physical consumption in India is estimated by IMF at 6600 USD and 5100 USD for Pakistan in 2016 (i.e 30% higher per person in India)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=35&pr.y=4&sy=2010&ey=2021&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=564,534&s=PPPPC&grp=0&a=

Back in 2010 there was barely any difference, and by 2020 it will be more than 40% higher in India per person and keep continuing to pull away.

I don't care about nominal exchange rate that you are quoting given overvaluing/undervaluing of currency w.r.t USD and the fact domestic price levels are more important to a country than US price levels. Besides even in this measure India is ahead now and pulling away.

Also all of this does not change the fact that Pakistan's capital good consumption is very low. It should be around 40 - 50 billion dollars in yearly size (to have same per capita fundamentals as India currently)....but all that can be found is that it has import of 8 billion (and I assume local production is negligible unless you can prove me wrong).

Maybe you can show me a paper or study that states the size of capital goods industry in Pakistan right now with a projection of how it is expected to grow in next 10 years under CPEC? Surely someone has done this study somewhere? I can't find a current size anywhere (beyond import amount) much less a projection.

Is it stated anywhere how much of the 46 billion loan from China under CPEC will cover capital goods import from Chinese overcapacity etc?

Let me tell you one more thing
Indian consumer spending is around USD 250B where as pakistan consumer spending is USD 85B.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/consumer-spending
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/consumer-spending

One more thing to check over here as you can check in my previous post, the consumer spending in india is stagnant with increase and decrease in last few years. where as in pakistan its just increasing.

 

[volatile]

Thats very different from you saying that in 10 years it will be more developed than Tokyo/HK/Shanghai....even Mumbai and Delhi. Lets not kid ourselves.

I still mantains this 10 Years but with present situation and pace we could have this discussion after 2025 if any one of us alive at that time .

Per capita physical consumption in India is estimated by IMF at 6600 USD and 5100 USD for Pakistan in 2016 (i.e 30% higher per person in India)

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/01/weodata/weorept.aspx?pr.x=35&pr.y=4&sy=2010&ey=2021&scsm=1&ssd=1&sort=country&ds=.&br=1&c=564,534&s=PPPPC&grp=0&a=

No one is arguing about India and its development ,India has still fair distance to travel to .

Back in 2010 there was barely any difference, and by 2020 it will be more than 40% higher in India per person and keep continuing to pull away.

2020 is still 4 years and with current situation im quite confident the difference will remain the same as per 2010 data .

I don't care about nominal exchange rate that you are quoting given overvaluing/undervaluing of currency w.r.t USD and the fact domestic price levels are more important to a country than US price levels. Besides even in this measure India is ahead now and pulling away.

At the end of day India still has more then 23% population below poverty line around 300 Mil People more than a combined Pakistan and half of BD where as Pak has around 17% around 34 Million so in this regard we have outclassed 10 times to India .Problem India has so many classes in religion but more recently with earning levels and this developments are not sustainable as i mentioned in previous posts ,India`s GDP is based on currently FDI which are making it sounding 6-7 % but in real terms Exports are declining ,Govt Spendings are declining so much has been hidden to a naked eye and all is not good as its portrayed .

I don't care about nominal exchange rate that you are quoting given overvaluing/undervaluing of currency w.r.t USD and the fact domestic price levels are more important to a country than US price levels. Besides even in this measure India is ahead now and pulling away.

Also all of this does not change the fact that Pakistan's capital good consumption is very low. It should be around 40 - 50 billion dollars in size....but all that can be found is that it has import of 8 billion (and I assume local production is negligible unless you can prove me wrong).

Maybe you can show me a paper or study that states the size of capital goods industry in Pakistan right now with a projection of how it is expected to grow in next 10 years under CPEC? Surely someone has done this study somewhere?

Is it stated anywhere how much of the 46 billion loan from China under CPEC will cover capital goods import from Chinese overcapacity etc?

Thing is you dont know Pak all way around and there has been no focus on core raw material/Finished goods rather processing jobs may be one stage or two stage ,but now many companies are investing for complete supply chain e.g Textile Ind exports are declining but there profits are soaring reason they are selling more locally .What ever you are referring is basics and what im implying is that there is more to capital goods and focused on manufacturing is now starting .

 

[Major Sam]

I still mantains this 10 Years but with present situation and pace we could have this discussion after 2025 if any one of us alive at that time .

No one is arguing about India and its development ,India has still fair distance to travel to .


2020 is still 4 years and with current situation im quite confident the difference will remain the same as per 2010 data .

At the end of day India still has more then 23% population below poverty line around 300 Mil People more than a combined Pakistan and half of BD where as Pak has around 17% around 34 Million so in this regard we have outclassed 10 times to India .Problem India has so many classes in religion but more recently with earning levels and this developments are not sustainable as i mentioned in previous posts ,India`s GDP is based on currently FDI which are making it sounding 6-7 % but in real terms Exports are declining ,Govt Spendings are declining so much has been hidden to a naked eye and all is not good as its portrayed .


Thing is you dont know Pak all way around and there has been no focus on core raw material/Finished goods rather processing jobs may be one stage or two stage ,but now many companies are investing for complete supply chain e.g Textile Ind exports are declining but there profits are soaring reason they are selling more locally .What ever you are referring is basics and what im implying is that there is more to capital goods and focused on manufacturing is now starting .

Thats what i am telling him teh consumer spending in pakistan is USD 85B, in india its USD 250B, which is just 3 times more than pakistan.

 

[Nilgiri]

Please correct Capital Goods import by india in year 2014 is USD 73B and in 2015 is USD 79B. While pakistan is USD 8.1B. which is in proportion with our GDP difference.

Next time please check before providing wrong figures.

One more thing while indian Capital Goods import is stagnant from USD 75B in 2011 to USD 79B with little bit variation. Pakistan has jumped from USD 6.1B to 8.1 with no decrease in between.
http://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...r/MPRT-TRD-VL/Partner/ALL/Product/UNCTAD-SoP4

I am not evaluating on imports (which is subject to definition changes), but total consumption.

Total market size is around 100 billion USD (I had conversion error earlier) for India.

About 65 billion in imports (different from WITS definition slightly) and 35 billion in local production for 2015. (CII figures)

What is the figure for Pakistan? 8 billion for imports and how much local production? If its 0 or close to 0, then thats almost double consumption in India per person....which makes sense given Indian GCF is around 30+% compared to Pakistan's 15%.

There is a projection this local production will treble in the coming years (i.e from about 35 billion to aroudn 100 billion USD):

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/0o...ds-sector-may-triple-in-size-in-10-years.html

I would like to see the equivalent items for Pakistan capital goods industry (i.e what is its total local production rather than imports if any....and what is the future projection analysis done by any group?)

 

[Khan_21]

In 2014-15 FY Maharastra GDP was around 275 billion USD, large part of it from Mumbai. Pakistan GDP in this year was 243 billion at current prices.

When done in PPP, the disparity becomes even bigger given lower local price levels in India especially for industrial goods. Its not wrong to say Mumbai greater metro has larger GDP than Pakistan.

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/the-top-15-indian-cities-by-gdp-1348807591-slideshow/

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gdp

Mumbai's economy was $ 209 billion in 2012 , the same year Pakistan Economy was $ 224 billion . Our economy today is somewhere near $ 300 billion ( will have to wait for IMF's 2016 figures ) . So it's one of those usual lies repeated by Indian posters to feel good about themselves .

Mumbai might also have more poverty or produce more garbage than all of Pakistan Combined . New Fun Facts .

http://www.firstpost.com/mumbai/mumbai-voted-worlds-dirtiest-city-557491.html

 

[volatile]

Thats what i am telling him teh consumer spending in pakistan is USD 85B, in india its USD 250B, which is just 3 times more than pakistan.

At the end of the day undocumented part are even more