Pakistan seeks explanation about Inu's Baluchistan remarks

[Nilgiri]

At the end of day India still has more then 23% population below poverty line

That figure is wrong. Its estimated at 12% now by World bank in 2011 (so its probably below 10% now)

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/109701443800596288/PRN03Oct2015TwinGoals.pdf

Read page 12.

India`s GDP is based on currently FDI which are making it sounding 6-7 % but in real terms Exports are declining ,Govt Spendings are declining so much has been hidden to a naked eye and all is not good as its portrayed .

Export fundamentals are fine (large drop was due to oil prices mostly given India is a large refined petroleum exporter).

Govt spending is declining? Where did you get that? Tax base is increasing, expenditure is increasing. Fiscal deficit is contained. Don't fool yourself in thinking less central budget = less spending. More is being given to state budgets....so overall spending is increasing and becoming more effective (less spent on subsidies).

FDI makes a tiny portion of Indian growth. Investment itself takes a long time to have full benefit to GDP anyway.

Thats what i am telling him teh consumer spending in pakistan is USD 85B, in india its USD 250B, which is just 3 times more than pakistan.

Most ridiculous thing I have heard. Of course you didnt provide a link either.

 

[Major Sam]

That figure is wrong. Its estimated at 12% now by World bank in 2011 (so its probably below 10% now)

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/109701443800596288/PRN03Oct2015TwinGoals.pdf

Read page 12.



Export fundamentals are fine (large drop was due to oil prices mostly given India is a large refined petroleum exporter).

Govt spending is declining? Where did you get that? Tax base is increasing, expenditure is increasing. Fiscal deficit is contained. Don't fool yourself in thinking less central budget = less spending. More is being given to state budgets....so overall spending is increasing and becoming more effective (less spent on subsidies).

FDI makes a tiny portion of Indian growth. Investment itself takes a long time to have full benefit to GDP anyway.



Most ridiculous thing I have heard. Of course you didnt provide a link either.

I just provided the link in my previous post, if you just come out from your arrogance. i am sure you will find it.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://in.finance.yahoo.com/photos/the-top-15-indian-cities-by-gdp-1348807591-slideshow/

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/gdp

Mumbai's economy was $ 209 billion in 2012 , the same year Pakistan Economy was $ 224 billion . Our economy today is somewhere near $ 300 billion ( will have to wait for IMF's 2016 figures ) . So it's one of those usual lies repeated by Indian posters to feel good about themselves .

Mumbai might also have more poverty or produce more garbage than all of Pakistan Combined . New Fun Facts .

http://www.firstpost.com/mumbai/mumbai-voted-worlds-dirtiest-city-557491.html

I already said Mumbai GDP is less than Pakistan. But they are close enough to compare and this is just one city in India.

Delhi has an even larger GDP than Mumbai btw.

As for the poverty in Mumbai....lets look at the slum prevalence in urban areas for both countries:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=IN-PK

For 2014

India = 24%

Pakistan = 46%

India's also dropping at much faster rate compared to Pakistan which has stagnated.

 

[Major Sam]

I am not evaluating on imports (which is subject to definition changes), but total consumption.

Total market size is around 100 billion USD (I had conversion error earlier) for India.

About 65 billion in imports (different from WITS definition slightly) and 35 billion in local production for 2015. (CII figures)

What is the figure for Pakistan? 8 billion for imports and how much local production? If its 0 or close to 0, then thats almost double consumption in India per person....which makes sense given Indian GCF is around 30+% compared to Pakistan's 15%.

There is a projection this local production will treble in the coming years (i.e from about 35 billion to aroudn 100 billion USD):

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/0o...ds-sector-may-triple-in-size-in-10-years.html

I would like to see the equivalent items for Pakistan capital goods industry (i.e what is its total local production rather than imports if any....and what is the future projection analysis done by any group?)

btw how you can assume that pakistan local production consumption is zero? can you pleas explain which industries comes in.

 

[Nilgiri]

I just provided the link in my previous post, if you just come out from your arrogance. i am sure you will find it.

You edited it later.

Anyways you just sank yourself pretty badly.

Lets look at exactly how shall we?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/consumer-spending

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/consumer-spending

You did see that for India the figures are given by quarter?

When we add the total for the year 2015 for India.

It is: 14958+15945+14968+15018 = roughly 61000 billion Rs = about 940 billion USD

For Pakistan the figure was 8584 billion = 83 billion USD.

Please learn the difference between quarterly and yearly reporting. Thanks.

940 over 83 is about 11 times....when we have about 7 times the population.

 

[Major Sam]

You edited it later.

Anyways you just sank yourself pretty badly.

Lets look at exactly how shall we?

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/india/consumer-spending

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/pakistan/consumer-spending

You did see that for India the figures are given by quarter?

When we add the total for the year 2015 for India.

It is: 14958+15945+14968+15018 = roughly 61000 billion Rs = about 940 billion USD

For Pakistan the figure was 8584 billion = 83 billion USD.

Please learn the difference between quarterly and yearly reporting. Thanks.

940 over 83 is about 11 times....when we have about 7 times the population.

I just checked the figure for pakistan is USD 222B

http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/india/final-consumption-expenditure

here is one more link
http://www.statista.com/statistics/234804/total-consumer-spending-in-pakistan/

in 2014 its USD 227B in 2015 its 253B USD.

in india its around 1-1.2Trillion USD.

so its 4-5 times.

I already said Mumbai GDP is less than Pakistan. But they are close enough to compare and this is just one city in India.

Delhi has an even larger GDP than Mumbai btw.

As for the poverty in Mumbai....lets look at the slum prevalence in urban areas for both countries:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=IN-PK

For 2014

India = 24%

Pakistan = 46%

India's also dropping at much faster rate compared to Pakistan which has stagnated.

how about comparing total population living in slums and percentage of middles class in each country.

 

[Nilgiri]

btw how you can assume that pakistan local production consumption is zero? can you pleas explain which industries comes in.

Well thats what I am asking you guys to provide me. A source (like say CII for India) that gives total production of capital goods in Pakistan. I cannot find one...and generally when I cannot find, it means it is negligible. What do you mean which industries? It covers all industries....it is the machinery etc.. you use in industries to make the actual industrial goods/products.

Lets take just textiles for example. How much textile machinery does Pakistan produce in one year?

I just checked the figure for pakistan is USD 222B

http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/india/final-consumption-expenditure

Trading economics definition of consumer spending is different from indexmundi final consumption (which will include govt related industry, businesses etc and not just private citizens).

When you compare in this as well India is listed at 1.45 trillion compared to Pakistan 223 billion....about 6.5 times....historically it was around 5 times....so again India growing much faster.

Why is it not 7 times (about population factor)....well thats because India puts a lot more than Pakistan into investment as % of GDP (30%+ compared to 15%)....we take a small hit on consumption to get better long term growth through investment (GCF). But even this will probably be higher in India for 2016 onwards with newer data and the trend will become a large disparity in the years to come here too.

in 2014 its USD 227B in 2015 its 253B USD.

in india its around 1-1.2Trillion USD.

so its 4-5 times.

where did you get this number for India.

On statistia I can only see the data for India up to 2010

http://www.statista.com/statistics/233108/total-consumer-spending-in-india/

how about comparing total population living in slums and percentage of middles class in each country.

I already did the slums, please open and read the link from world bank:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=IN-PK

To measure middle class you first have to define it.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/0A...middle-class-the-promise-and-the-reality.html

Do you have a similar pyramid for Pakistan somewhere?

@PARIKRAMA @proud_indian @anant_s @Abingdonboy you guys may be interested to see this shift in indian household income over the years that I posted here.

@farhan_9909 and @Bilal9 as well...

 

[volatile]

Govt spending is declining? Where did you get that? Tax base is increasing, expenditure is increasing. Fiscal deficit is contained. Don't fool yourself in thinking less central budget = less spending. More is being given to state budgets....so overall spending is increasing and becoming more effective (less spent on subsidies).

That figure is wrong. Its estimated at 12% now by World bank in 2011 (so its probably below 10% now)

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/109701443800596288/PRN03Oct2015TwinGoals.pdf

What does it mean to be 'poor'?
India's definition of "poor" has been hotly debated by development economists and activists, with several finding the official poverty line too low and leaving out a number of people who might still need government assistance. In 2014, a report by the Indian government Planning Commission estimated that 363 million Indians, making up 29.5% of the total population, were living below the poverty line in 2011-12. The report, by the Rangarajan Expert Group, also estimates that the India poverty ratio fell from 38.2% to 29.5% between 2009-10 and 2011-12, lifting 91.6 million individuals out of poverty.
According to a Pew Research Center report released this month, while people were able to move up the social ladder from poor to low income during the last decade, the actual number of people in the middle class (living on $10-20 a day) barely budged from 1% in 2001 to 3% in 2011. Most developing countries set poverty lines far below those of advanced country levels.
Living on double the Indian Planning Commission poverty line of $2.40 per day would still mean not meeting nutritional and other needs at developed economy levels. Many poor people "lifted out of poverty" are still living at levels closer to $2.40 than $10 per day. The Pew report estimates that at the proposed Rangarajan poverty line, food consumption alone would take up 57% of a rural family's budget and 47% of an urban family's budget.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/02/asia/india-poor-census-secc/

Read thru link again your own link suggests

Despite solid development gains, progress has been uneven and significant work remains. With an estimated 900 million people in 2012 on less than $1.90 a day—the updated international poverty line—and a projected 700 million in 2015, extreme poverty still remains unacceptably high.

Changing indicator doesnt hide facts

FDI makes a tiny portion of Indian growth. Investment itself takes a long time to have full benefit to GDP anyway.

I Introduction India's exports have grown much faster than GDP over the past few decades. For example, its exports have grown over 11% per annum while growth in GDP is about 5% during 1970-98 periods. Exports have grown even faster since 1945-95. Several factors appear to have contributed to this phenomenon including foreign direct investment (FDI) which has been rising consistently especially from the early 1990s. By 1997 India became the ninth largest recipient of such investment among the developing economies (World Bank, 1998:20).1 However, despite increasing inflows of FDI there has not been any attempt to assess its contribution to India's export performance- one of the channels through which FDI affects growth. 2
Export growth in India has been much faster than GDP growth over the past few decades. Several factors appear to have contributed to this phenomenon including foreign direct investment (FDI). However, despite increasing inflows of FDI especially in recent years there has not been any attempt to assess its contribution to India's export performance one of the channels through which FDI influences growth. Using annual data for 1970-98 we investigate the determinants of export performance in India in a simultaneous equation framework
http://www.econ.yale.edu/growth_pdf/cdp816.pdf

 

[Nilgiri]

What does it mean to be 'poor'?
India's definition of "poor" has been hotly debated by development economists and activists, with several finding the official poverty line too low and leaving out a number of people who might still need government assistance. In 2014, a report by the Indian government Planning Commission estimated that 363 million Indians, making up 29.5% of the total population, were living below the poverty line in 2011-12. The report, by the Rangarajan Expert Group, also estimates that the India poverty ratio fell from 38.2% to 29.5% between 2009-10 and 2011-12, lifting 91.6 million individuals out of poverty.
According to a Pew Research Center report released this month, while people were able to move up the social ladder from poor to low income during the last decade, the actual number of people in the middle class (living on $10-20 a day) barely budged from 1% in 2001 to 3% in 2011. Most developing countries set poverty lines far below those of advanced country levels.
Living on double the Indian Planning Commission poverty line of $2.40 per day would still mean not meeting nutritional and other needs at developed economy levels. Many poor people "lifted out of poverty" are still living at levels closer to $2.40 than $10 per day. The Pew report estimates that at the proposed Rangarajan poverty line, food consumption alone would take up 57% of a rural family's budget and 47% of an urban family's budget.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/08/02/asia/india-poor-census-secc/

Read thru link again your own link suggests

Despite solid development gains, progress has been uneven and significant work remains. With an estimated 900 million people in 2012 on less than $1.90 a day—the updated international poverty line—and a projected 700 million in 2015, extreme poverty still remains unacceptably high.

Hence why I went with World Bank definition and methodology (consumption based poverty). By 2020, I bet this will be yet another parameter we beat Pakistan which traditionally has had lower absolute poverty. The list shrinks for Pakistan each passing year as to what you are still better than India in....it used to be quite large and 50/50 split in most development parameters....but lately its been quite one-sided and getting ever more so.

Your last para refers to the whole world, not India.

This is what I was referring to earlier:

I Introduction India's exports have grown much faster than GDP over the past few decades. For example, its exports have grown over 11% per annum while growth in GDP is about 5% during 1970-98 periods. Exports have grown even faster since 1945-95. Several factors appear to have contributed to this phenomenon including foreign direct investment (FDI) which has been rising consistently especially from the early 1990s. By 1997 India became the ninth largest recipient of such investment among the developing economies (World Bank, 1998:20).1 However, despite increasing inflows of FDI there has not been any attempt to assess its contribution to India's export performance- one of the channels through which FDI affects growth. 2
Export growth in India has been much faster than GDP growth over the past few decades. Several factors appear to have contributed to this phenomenon including foreign direct investment (FDI). However, despite increasing inflows of FDI especially in recent years there has not been any attempt to assess its contribution to India's export performance one of the channels through which FDI influences growth. Using annual data for 1970-98 we investigate the determinants of export performance in India in a simultaneous equation framework

FDI and exports % of Indian economy are still pretty small....but they are growing. You definitely cannot call India dependent on exports and FDI. For that to happen FDI has to be more than at least 100 billion USD (its around 40 - 50 billion right now) per year and exports have to be more than 500 billion USD a year (right now its around 300 billion and stagnant because of global commodity crisis and weak consumption growth).

Now FDI and exports have their part in it....but the major thing that caused India's growth is its investment story overall ...GCF went up from around 20% to almost 40% of GDP in about 20 years time.

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS?locations=IN

Right now its about 35% of GDP. This means total investment is around 800 billion USD in a year snapshot. If 50 billion of this is FDI, you tell me its total significance compared to domestic investment? It is a quality injector with excellent multiplier effects to create and streamline industrial and service pathways....but it does not make India "dependent" on it.

They may seem big compared to what Pakistan gets as % of GDP....but we prefer to compare to our peers in the world like China who have done a great job and are further down the road. We look forward, not behind us.

 

[volatile]

FDI and exports % of Indian economy are still pretty small....but they are growing. You definitely cannot call India dependent on exports and FDI. For that to happen FDI has to be more than at least 100 billion USD (its around 40 - 50 billion right now) per year and exports have to be more than 500 billion USD a year (right now its around 300 billion and stagnant because of global commodity crisis and weak consumption growth).

Now FDI and exports have their part in it....but the major thing that caused India's growth is its investment story overall ...GCF went up from around 20% to almost 40% of GDP in about 20 years time.

I think you are inventing things just to answer you

GDP comprises of following check any school of thought

GDP = (Investments) FDI + EXports + Consumer Spending + GOvt Spending
Coming to the point again Eports are not high for India as you mentioned ,Govt Spending i have shared this with you that are dropping only variables which are increasing is FDI and Consumer spending so your analysis are not correct .

They may seem big compared to what Pakistan gets as % of GDP....but we prefer to compare to our peers in the world like China who have done a great job and are further down the road. We look forward, not behind us.

lolz at my any post i have compare economics of Mighty India with Mino Pakistan ? as this shows how obsessed Indians are when they are subjected to Pakistan ,India cant reach China reason ,wrong socio ,economics probably they can do well if they concentrate themselves on poverty alleviation

This is what I was referring to earlier:

This para represent way forward in creating and measuring Index at the end of day fact remains more than 900 Million people are earning 1.9 $ a day
.

 

[Nilgiri]

I think you are inventing things just to answer you

GDP comprises of following check any school of thought

GDP = (Investments) FDI + EXports + Consumer Spending + GOvt Spending
Coming to the point again Eports are not high for India as you mentioned ,Govt Spending i have shared this with you that are dropping only variables which are increasing is FDI and Consumer spending so your analysis are not correct

You do realise the govt spending you posted is by quarter? Of course there will be fluctuations within a year...demand and spending cycles are not going to be a straight perfect ramp.

Its better for you to look at the aggregate totals for each year. Start with the total govt spending for each year in India from say the year 2000 to now. It has always stayed relatively consistent at 10 - 12% of GDP for union budget:

http://www.theglobaleconomy.com/India/Government_size/

For total spending (union + state + other non plan) it is at 27% compared to Pakistan 21%:

http://www.heritage.org/index/explore?view=by-variables

If you look at their previous year report India government total spending was 26.9% of GDP

http://www.heritage.org/index/pdf/2015/book/index_2015.pdf

It has held relatively consistent at 27 - 28% of GDP for last 10 or so years if you look at the data.

That means it has kept pace with the growth and definitely is not "dropping".

I mean lets just take the union budget.

In 2010, its total size was 11.8 lakh crore, in 2015 it was 17.8 lakh crore. Thats about 8.5% growth per year.

This para represent way forward in creating and measuring Index at the end of day fact remains more than 900 Million people are earning 1.9 $ a day

Are you saying 900 million for the entire world or just for India?

Because the world bank when quoting that figure was saying it in the context of the world.

Even under the old measure, India absolute poor numbered around 250 million in the year 2011. World Bank is now saying with better measurement this number could have been below 150 million. They have incorporated this new method in upcoming surveys so the whole world can be on the same page and have better more accurate measure of absolute poverty.

 

[Major Sam]

Well thats what I am asking you guys to provide me. A source (like say CII for India) that gives total production of capital goods in Pakistan. I cannot find one...and generally when I cannot find, it means it is negligible. What do you mean which industries? It covers all industries....it is the machinery etc.. you use in industries to make the actual industrial goods/products.

Lets take just textiles for example. How much textile machinery does Pakistan produce in one year?



Trading economics definition of consumer spending is different from indexmundi final consumption (which will include govt related industry, businesses etc and not just private citizens).

When you compare in this as well India is listed at 1.45 trillion compared to Pakistan 223 billion....about 6.5 times....historically it was around 5 times....so again India growing much faster.

Why is it not 7 times (about population factor)....well thats because India puts a lot more than Pakistan into investment as % of GDP (30%+ compared to 15%)....we take a small hit on consumption to get better long term growth through investment (GCF). But even this will probably be higher in India for 2016 onwards with newer data and the trend will become a large disparity in the years to come here too.



where did you get this number for India.

On statistia I can only see the data for India up to 2010

http://www.statista.com/statistics/233108/total-consumer-spending-in-india/



I already did the slums, please open and read the link from world bank:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.POP.SLUM.UR.ZS?locations=IN-PK

To measure middle class you first have to define it.

http://www.livemint.com/Politics/0A...middle-class-the-promise-and-the-reality.html

Do you have a similar pyramid for Pakistan somewhere?

@PARIKRAMA @proud_indian @anant_s @Abingdonboy you guys may be interested to see this shift in indian household income over the years that I posted here.

@farhan_9909 and @Bilal9 as well...

here you can see consumer spending untill 2015
http://www.euromonitor.com/india/country-factfile

 

[Khan_21]

Hence why I went with World Bank definition and methodology (consumption based poverty). By 2020, I bet this will be yet another parameter we beat Pakistan which traditionally has had lower absolute poverty. The list shrinks for Pakistan each passing year as to what you are still better than India in....it used to be quite large and 50/50 split in most development parameters....but lately its been quite one-sided and getting ever more so.
ions

I just gave you Numerous indexes like Happy planet Index , United Nations Happiness report, Habitat commitment index and Numerous Poverty scales where Pakistan is comfortably ahead.

Sanitation , Cleanliness , Inequality , Gender inequality , Road infrastructure , Electricity access etc etc the list is quite long if you want I can List down all of it .

 

[Nilgiri]

here you can see consumer spending untill 2015
http://www.euromonitor.com/india/country-factfile

http://www.euromonitor.com/india/country-factfile

http://www.euromonitor.com/pakistan/country-factfile

OK this site gives it as for 2015:

IND: 1.32 trillion USD (6.7% growth from previous year)

PAK: 211.3 billion USD ( 5.5% growth from previous year)

So India is growing faster here too despite being a somewhat more investment focused economy.

I mean internet users according to this site have more than quadrupled in India from 2010 - 2015 (from 80 to 350 million)

Whereas in Pakistan, it just about doubled (from 12 million to 25 million) in the same period.

I just gave you Numerous indexes like Happy planet Index , United Nations Happiness report, Habitat commitment index and Numerous Poverty scales where Pakistan is comfortably ahead.

Sanitation , Cleanliness , Inequality , Gender inequality , Road infrastructure , Electricity access etc etc the list is quite long if you want I can List down all of it .

Don't care much for indices past Human development index (since it at least keeps things simple). We have already discussed this many times before.

If Pakistan sanitation, poverty etc is so much better than India....why is your infant mortality rate ( a very basic indicator of socio economic progress at fundamental level) about 15 years behind India?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

This gets reflected in the overall life expectancy in a big way.

So lets discuss each socio-economic base metric one by one if you want.

 

[Major Sam]

http://www.euromonitor.com/india/country-factfile

http://www.euromonitor.com/pakistan/country-factfile

OK this site gives it as for 2015:

IND: 1.32 trillion USD (6.7% growth from previous year)

PAK: 211.3 billion USD ( 5.5% growth from previous year)

So India is growing faster here too despite being a somewhat more investment focused economy.

I mean internet users according to this site have more than quadrupled in India from 2010 - 2015 (from 80 to 350 million)

Whereas in Pakistan, it just about doubled (from 12 million to 25 million) in the same period.



Don't care much for indices past Human development index (since it at least keeps things simple). We have already discussed this many times before.

If Pakistan sanitation, poverty etc is so much better than India....why is your infant mortality rate ( a very basic indicator of socio economic progress at fundamental level) about 15 years behind India?

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.IMRT.IN?locations=IN-PK

This gets reflected in the overall life expectancy in a big way.

So lets discuss each socio-economic base metric one by one if you want.

Well as i see many other resources our current consumption is around 240-250B USD.

The internet penetration currnetly 3g-4g is 32 million. where as we started our 3G and 4G since 2013.

http://tribune.com.pk/story/1170448/pakistans-3g4g-user-base-rises-32-million/