Pakistan’s nuclear and missile assets -- myth vs reality

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Being secretive is only seen as a rather poor excuse to justify the outright purchase of arms, designs from outside markets being passed off as products born out of local efforts because....

You say it is a poor excuse, what I see is a lot of flawed assumptions on your part that because the programs remain secret then therefore the products are purchased and not "locally developed" - an extremely fallacious conclusion.

Information is very much available. It just doesn't suit Pakistan right now. Information about which Pakistani Prime Minister approved purchase of designs from NK after a certain meeting with A.Q.Khan is available.

All missiles can be made to go a little longer with a little fiddling.

If the former PM is to be believed, then Pakistan also did not proliferate to NK, but nonetheless lets say purchased the technology for a 1500 km missile, that was subsequently enhanced to 2500 km. That alleged acquisition also was for a liquid fueled missile, unlike the solid fueled Shaheen 1 (which lets assume for arguments sake is based on the m-9 delivered before 1992), but the Shaheen 2 far exceeded that when tested as a 2000 km (according to Samar 2700km) two stage missile. Both of those tests, especially of the S-2, go beyond "simple tweaking".

We have information that Pakistan cannot yet send a satellite into space but is able to produce a new variety of ballistic missiles is very much available. That information is enough for me to pronounce Pakistani claims on being able to produce these Chinese/North Korean missiles an outright lie.

Come on a basic SLV! If you can locally do a Ghauri, Shaheen whatever.....a very very basic SLV is a walk in the park. Why is Pakistan still struggling to do shoot up a simple SLV rocket ?

Is DRDO responsible for India's space program or is ISRO? What is the level of funding and size of ISRO compared to SUPARCO? Even if you take into account collaboration between different organizations, there has to be an organization (ISRO in India's case) that has the manpower, funding and capacity to utilize the information from the related BM program. I don't really see how the failure of SUPARCO, when it hasn't received anywhere close to the appropriate funding, can be taken as proof that Pakistan does not have the capability to manufacture/develop BM's. Different organizations, different programs, different levels of interest and funding from the government.

Wrong example. The J-10 was hardly a surprise. It ain't a full LAVI but atleast we knew where it came from and we know how good or bad it is for sometime.
The infrastructure and the whole assortment of institutions that produce quality products cannot be hidden. The fact that we don't see them, at least their parallels in the civilian sector is proof enough that they are non-existent

The J-10 may incorporate lessons from the Lavi, however the Chinese government is not "assembling from Blueprints", and it also managed to skip a large part of the development and R&D process that the US/Israel pursued within their aviation industry, and built upon whatever knowledge it had. The "j-10" was "reported to be in development", just as the Pakistani Missile program was always "reportedly developing missiles".

Where you continue to be dishonest is by claiming that there is no infrastructure or institutions in Pakistan. Perhaps you misunderstood me, I wasn't saying that the institutions are "secret", but that any programs they have under development are.

There is zero knowledge gained by building products from blueprints. You cannot make your own cycle after learning to assemble them from spare parts and raw materials supplied by outsides. You will have zero understanding about the laws of science that run a cycle and you will only learn it when you design and build yourselves one.

I was using your "blue print" comment, I didn't expect you to take it literally, or focus on that word alone. What I mentioned in the rest of the post was conveniently ignored by you. Its not about simply obtaining blueprints and assembling products, which we are perhaps doing with the Bakhtarshikan and Anza, but understanding the concepts of missile and WMD technology. You need scientists and institutions to both understand existing concepts and levels of technology and continue development on them. Scientific concepts do not have to be "invented" by every person who wishes to understand them or use them. What you are assuming is that if the Chinese gave Pakistan the m-9, all we got was blue prints. What I am arguing is that even before we received help from the Chinese and North Koreans, Pakistan had institutions and Scientists in place working (albeit unsuccessfully till that point) on the BM and WMD programs.

What the Chinese provided was essentially the technology and knowledge needed to cross the barriers we faced, not dissimilar to those faced by the Indians until Russian and Israeli cooperation came along.

The same people believe Pakistan has not operationalized any of its strategic missiles. They doubt Pakistan possessing any locally made functional nuke at all. They also believe the much hastily done second series of tests by Pakistan could have Chinese origins. I respect whoever these Western Military folk are but I won't take their word to be the absolute truth.

Dear sir,

No one is asking you to believe even one word of what they say. Their's is an opinion just like yours and mine. The contention that China may have ceased support with Pakistan after 1992 is not central to my argument, though it would make sense given China's aversion to " unnecessary risk" given its newfound economic and political clout on the world scene, but thats a different debate.

On the issue of "functional missiles", recent BM tests by Pakistan, and most likely any future ones, were probably tracked by India. I find it hard to believe that Pakistan would notify India that it was conducting a BM test and then "fake it", knowing full well that the Indians and Israelis would see through the charade immediately. But the WABBERS are entitled to their opinions, a bunch of "hooey" though such opinions may seem, to me at least.

They're politicians not Leaders. Pakistan has never had a true leader.

We had one for sure - unfortunately he did not live long enough to impress his vision upon us.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

On NESCOM, though the source is wikipedia, the comments are mostly verifiable (especially the number of scientists) through various interviews given by Dr. Samarmand.

National Engineering and Scientific Commission (NESCOM) is a Pakistani scientific and research organization carrying out research in many engineering and scientific areas including information technology, electrical engineering, and mechanical and chemical engineering, with specialities in the design and production of the defence systems for the Pakistan Army.

NESCOM was formed in early 2001 with the merger of the Project Management Organization (PMO), the Air Weapon Complex (AWC), and the National Development Complex (NDC).

NESCOM has its headquarters in Islamabad and is situated in the I-11 sector. It has a Center of Excellence complex at the same location, where Pakistan's leading scientists and engineers from the four constituent organisations (NDC, AWC, PMO), are involved in various research projects. A vast majority of these scientists and engineers hold Ph.D. degrees earned from reputed foreign universities. NESCOM also includes a hospital for its more than 50,000 employees and their families, which is regarded as among the best in the country.

 

[Samudra]

AM bai.

Let me explain.

1.The whole strategic military-R&D-production of Pakistan is import oriented. There is nothing wrong with importing missiles or atom bombs or biological weapons. Nothing at all so long as both of the parties involved are responsible - treaty binding players in the global arena.North Korea, Iran and Libya don't make it to my responsible players list. The kind of proliferation that Pakistan has been indulging in is extremely dangerous.

2.You speak of improved missiles.The nuclear-missile bartel was sufficiently exposed.For every 'improved' missile there appears to be a parallel in China/NK/Irans inventory. Of course we're not to draw conclusions like that but given the track record and the similarity the balance of probability lies not in Pakistans favor.

You believe Pakistan can improve upon these missiles and build better missiles. As I said - all the best. I don't think so.

To us it makes no difference which missile delivered the bomb.

3. SUPARCO - I certainly don't know of the budgets and mandates but a SLV is sure on their plans since the mid-nineties. We know the SUPARCO was initially involved with Hatf 1,1A missiles.

4. Pakistan has a handful of institutions. But as I see them I quickly remember which importing programme they were involved in. The NDC did Shaheen from M-9. The AQ Khan labs did the Ghauri series. And so on. A truly major indigenous product maturing itselves over the years - I'm yet to see. As I said, Pak institutions are oriented towards import & develop.

What Pakistan got was not merely technology and knowledge but full plans, and in a few cases even raw materials. Gawds sake we know 34 was the number of missiles China gave Pak the first time!

Which brings us to where it all began - such is not the model followed in India.

5. Nope, Western Military experts don't say Pakistan doesn't have missiles. Are they operational though ?

6. Oh not Jinnah man. Why? For another thread perhaps.

ps >: didnt see your earlier post. Move this one to anywhere but the bin.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Samudra,

You raise a whole new can of worms and another debate - that of "Proliferation with the knowhow of the GoP" which I would disagree with. The proliferation was primarily conducted at one mans behest and we know who that is. The GoP is to be blamed in that it did not have the necessary safeguards in place, and one man gained too much power.

On the similarity issue, I have already conceded the possibility of the Ghauri and Shaheen 1 being copies of the Nodong and the M-9 respectively, but even that most Pakistan hating forum (Bharat Rakshak) had a lively debate over the Shaheen 2, and they were unable to come with an exact match in the NK or Chinese inventories (yes they compared the M-18 and the DF-2/DF-3). So I think it is fair to state that the current information available indicates that at least the Shaheen 2 has been a result of indigenous R&D, which isn't surprising given that PAEC/NESCOM were the organizations that were also primarily responsible for Pakistan's nuclear program, and conducted the tests.

Samudra,

The issue isn't about convincing you of anything, but countering your assertions. Whether you believe the sun rises in the West does not affect me or Pakistan, but the arguments raised by you are completely speculative.

On the institutions, see Neo's posts above. Whether SUPARCO had plans for an SLV is moot if it was never provided the funding with which to pursue a dedicated program to develop an SLV. If you check out the Pakistan Space Program thread, you will find that the organization is minuscule, and is still working on capacity building, and talking about "sending staff abroad for training that will help in its mission". The little funding it has received has been focussed on developing Pakistan's first Satellites, something I think we need to focus on more than an SLV since we can always use China/Russia to launch our satellites. Satellites would provide Pakistan with far more capabilities than the dick measuring contest of matching the Indian Space program, and with the limited amount of funds Pakistan has there really isn't much of an option.

What do you mean by "operational"? Any successful announced test (ballistic missile tests require advance notification to India) would be tracked and monitored by India (potentially Israel), and therefore a "faked test" would be easily caught I would imagine.

 

[Samudra]

What do you mean by "operational"? Any successful announced test (ballistic missile tests require advance notification to India) would be tracked and monitored by India (potentially Israel), and therefore a "faked test" would be easily caught I would imagine.

Oh no, it gets a whole lot complex than that. Neither the PA nor the IA can shoot a missile without all the required training, infrastructure and proper C&C establishment.

It takes anything between 3-5 years for a new missile to be fully operational in the Indian armed forces from the date of acceptance(which is usually the first time the missile is test-fired in the presence of armed forces, before that we only have development trials - the ultimate end user would have nothing major to do with these trials).

You need to establish production facilities - what they make in labs are not suitable for mass production. Missiles need to be made in factories. Missiles themselves have to ruggedised. Training procedures and manuals for the armed forces have to be developed. The missiles and the operational doctrines have to adapted. Users would need to test all attributes of the missile(mobility, test-firing, re-loading, servicing) and train and retrain themselves.

Finally, these missiles being strategic missiles the strategic command would need to change target allocations for each battery, find a place to station these missiles safe from the prying eyes of enemy sats and make available adequate protection for these assets etc.

Each one of these activities cost anywhere between a few crores in money and six months in time.

You raise a whole new can of worms and another debate - that of "Proliferation with the knowhow of the GoP" which I would disagree with.

The nuclear walmart cannot have flourished without the knowledge of Pak security establishment. (Mirza Aslam Beg is one name mentioned openly)
I'd grant that much competence to Pak security establishments. If you'd disagree then it is conceded that Pak security establishments have not been able to keep a tight lid on your nuclear assets. Ergo Pakistan is not a safe place for nuclear weapons to be. Either way - it ain't good.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Oh no, it gets a whole lot complex than that. Neither the PA nor the IA can shoot a missile without all the required training, infrastructure and proper C&C establishment.

It takes anything between 3-5 years for a new missile to be fully operational in the Indian armed forces from the date of acceptance(which is usually the first time the missile is test-fired in the presence of armed forces, before that we only have development trials - the ultimate end user would have nothing major to do with these trials).

You need to establish production facilities - what they make in labs are not suitable for mass production. Missiles need to be made in factories. Missiles themselves have to ruggedised. Training procedures and manuals for the armed forces have to be developed. The missiles and the operational doctrines have to adapted. Users would need to test all attributes of the missile(mobility, test-firing, re-loading, servicing) and train and retrain themselves.

Finally, these missiles being strategic missiles the strategic command would need to change target allocations for each battery, find a place to station these missiles safe from the prying eyes of enemy sats and make available adequate protection for these assets etc.

Each one of these activities cost anywhere between a few crores in money and six months in time.

Given the time that has elapsed between the testing of the Ghauri and the Shaheen I, the requisite "capacity building" and "operationalization" seems to have had more than the time you describe as necessary. However your point is valid, and can also be affirmed by a comment of Musharraf in his autobiography when he said that "Pakistan did not have any operational nukes during Kargil". That comment would make perfect sense given the time required to "operationalize" that you mentioned, but we are going on nine/ten years now for the above mentioned missile systems - more than enough time to "operationalize". If you were to assume that the Ghauri and Shaheen 1 were "tried and tested", "assembled" systems from NK and China, then the "operationalization" time required could possibly be even lower. So I am not sure how you (or the Wabbers) can come to the conclusion that Pakistan still does not have any operational missiles.

On the matter of the Shaheen II though I will concede that it is possibly not yet operational, though there have been about four or so tests since the original one in 2004, but even here the "operationalization time frame" is pushing the higher end of the figures you mentioned.

The nuclear walmart cannot have flourished without the knowledge of Pak security establishment. (Mirza Aslam Beg is one name mentioned openly)
I'd grant that much competence to Pak security establishments. If you'd disagree then it is conceded that Pak security establishments have not been able to keep a tight lid on your nuclear assets. Ergo Pakistan is not a safe place for nuclear weapons to be. Either way - it ain't good.

I'll reply by reposting a reply to Salim on WAB, where he made the same point.

I think you are applying the norms of nations with well developed and delineated institutions while assuming that it would have been impossible for AQK to conduct his activities without "official sanction". The latitude allowed him was enormous and Musharraf himself mentions an occasion when AQK refused to tell him - the Chief Executive and COAS - what exactly was being transported on a particular trip of his. Whether you choose to not believe the account is a different matter, but to most Pakistanis, it is perfectly understandable given the personality cult and "savior" status he gained in Pakistan. One oft repeated joke was that the Prime Ministers had to ask his permission to visit Nuclear facilities. His security detail, and the army officers in charge reported to him. While it is completely plausible that certain officials in the Government knew about his activities, there is no indication that there was official government sanction for his proliferation, though the GoP is responsible for not putting in place effective controls to prevent such a thing.

Your comment about Pakistan being a "real dangerous state", in the proliferation context, is also only correct to an extent - yes, given the dismal and almost non existent nuclear controls in place, Pakistan WAS a "real dangerous state" - however the highlighting of AQK's proliferation embarrassed and forced Pakistan into removing and isolating him and put in place a process of rigorous nuclear controls that are detailed in a thread elsewhere. It would therefore be wrong to make the "dangerous state" claim at this point without dissecting the Pakistani Nuclear Controls and pointing out where flaws still exist.

Aslam Beg's Reply:

It's been said that you were aware of the nuclear proliferation. How do you comment on that?

If my government wasn't aware, how was I aware? I was army chief from 1988 to 1991. If we were never told what was happening beneath the surface when the Americans knew, when the British agencies knew, when they have claimed they have penetrated the entire system including Pakistan -- so are they not guilty?

On the question of "protecting" a former Army man - AQ Khan was a much bigger fish in Pakistan. Any administration in Pakistan that went after him would have taken a much larger risk of "political suicide" than if they went after Beg. Musharraf also went after Admiral Mansoor-ul-Haq and other senior military officers for corruption charges, so there was a precedent of not sparing "big fish" from the military. The Americans also would not have allowed someone as high ranking as Beg to get off the hook when they confronted Pakistan with the evidence of AQ Khans involvement. I mean think about it, here they are convincing the Pakistani government to arrest and try arguably one of the most respected men (Father of the Bomb) in Pakistan - no way they would have allowed Beg to get away, and it would have been much easier to arrest and isolate him than it was AQ Khan.

 

[Samudra]

On the matter of the Shaheen II though I will concede that it is possibly not yet operational, though there have been about four or so tests since the original one in 2004, but even here the "operationalization time frame" is pushing the higher end of the figures you mentioned.

Operationalisation time is also a function of political will and other geostrategic factors. However it was somebodys claim and I was merely mentioning it - now we know precisely why mere claims on forums despite being made by respected members are not the absolute truth.

Ofcourse everybody involved in the proliferation are going to be denying it. Mirza Aslam included. The West or America in particular cannot bring down its ire on the whole military-political establishment of Pakistan when the state was needed the most - it was here AQ was made a scapegoat and the famous pardon was granted. Heck, Musharaf got away with Ghauri and Kargil as far as I know....

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

Ofcourse everybody involved in the proliferation are going to be denying it. Mirza Aslam included. The West or America in particular cannot bring down its ire on the whole military-political establishment of Pakistan when the state was needed the most - it was here AQ was made a scapegoat and the famous pardon was granted. Heck, Musharaf got away with Ghauri and Kargil as far as I know....

I agree, denial is a given - but my point is that with AQ Khan in the spotlight, no one would have noticed Beg, and he probably would have been treated the same as AQ - isolation rather any severe punishment, which in't any major "inconvenience" but would have taken both of them out of circulation. I think the West suspects Beg, based on the "he couldn't possibly have not known" argument, but I doubt they have any conclusive evidence. And I am certain they have no evidence of his "involvement" in nuclear trafficking because that would mean that a very high profile figure in the nuclear black market is still on the loose. That would be an unacceptable risk.

However we are merely speculating here, and obviously we view the situation from different perspectives, so ones reasoning isn't satisfactory for the other, so I suppose we can agree to disagree. It will be extremely interesting to read about the events when they become declassified, hopefully in our lifetimes.

 

[Samudra]

AM

Beg is just one name.The secrecy with which decision regarding nuclear weapons are made world over(Much of the orders are verbal at the highest level) and the fact that a long list of who's who of the Pakistani establishment is involved provide the players a certain degree of immunity.The US could only act after it had conclusive evidence of Pakistan's involvement thanks to the "betrayal" Musharaf refers to.

It will be extremely interesting to read about the events when they become declassified, hopefully in our lifetimes.

In the meanwhile I hope nobody in the power corridors of Pakistan writes another book. I read Musharaff's and I feel I saw too many 'I's in it.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

AM

Beg is just one name.The secrecy with which decision regarding nuclear weapons are made world over(Much of the orders are verbal at the highest level) and the fact that a long list of who's who of the Pakistani establishment is involved provide the players a certain degree of immunity.The US could only act after it had conclusive evidence of Pakistan's involvement thanks to the "betrayal" Musharaf refers to.

The whole point here is that "decisions at the highest level of Government" were not made. AQ Khan abused his "national hero" status and the lack of controls and accountability in the system. This abuse of power wasn't just limited to the his nuclear work, he was also involved in strong arm tactics against some businesses and land grabs.

In the meanwhile I hope nobody in the power corridors of Pakistan writes another book. I read Musharaff's and I feel I saw too many 'I's in it.

Autobiographies are supposed to be about "I".

 

[Samudra]

The whole point here is that "decisions at the highest level of Government" were not made

There appear to be precedents. Some of them self-confessed by Bhutto/Shariff etc.
So knowing that this is going to lead us towards running around the bush...lets leave it here.

Autobiographies are supposed to be about "I"

This was a little over-doing it. To think he criticized others and ended up doing the same thing - like fighting the Supreme Court etc. Man, Musharaf is in one tight place.

 

[AgNoStiC MuSliM]

This was a little over-doing it. To think he criticized others and ended up doing the same thing - like fighting the Supreme Court etc. Man, Musharaf is in one tight place.

Tight place indeed, but its about Pakistan and Pakistanis, not Musharraf. Lets see if the PPP and PML-N can overcome their ideological differences, over what issues, and for how long.

 

[indiapakistanfriendship]

uhmm.. no not really. i don't think news about Gwadar and the relief it provides to the navy in case of blockade, could be disastrous for the navy.

Assad read my post again, having Gwadhar does not provide any relief to PN, in fact it will become a headache, India has the means and wherewithal to block two ports simultaneously without even nearing Karachi and Gwadhar, so splitting up assets between the two ports will only weaken Pakistans ability to provide defense for its own coast.

PN is currently seeking more ships, frigates, corvettes, etc.

Replacements for older ships which will be retiring soon.

will just be interim solutions to fill in the gap. there will more acquisitions even after these.

Nope , this will be your curent procurement cycle, and will run for next two decades before you can purchase additionall goodies, you will have to wait for the next procrurement cycle. PN does not run on an infinite budget, so more additional purchases means more cuts in either your airforce or army and I assure you, both of them will not be quiet happy.

what? why do we require another nuclear test to have a second strike capability?

pakistan can already miniaturize its warheads to fit cruise missiles, otherwise i don't think we would make the claim that they're nuclear capable. cruise missiles will most likely use plutonium weapons for higher yeild.

Dude miniaturisation is one thing , but perfecting the design and being sure that it will work is another thing. Pakistans first nuclear test proved that its programme is not fully matured but it also gave them chance to understand the problems and find a solution. Given the number of weapons that you are capable of producing with a limited budget, your country will focus on designs that they can be sure will work, which means , air delivered and BM delivery.

Nuclear capable does not mean it has nuclear warhead ready. Miaturising a weapon is a complex process and unless one is sure through simulation and tests, countries like India and Pakistan will not divert from existing designs which according to their standards and understanding will be reliable.

and how do you know that pakistan does not have any simulation mechanisms, software, or computational capabilities for nuclear weapons? can you provide a specific source that pakistan does not have these? i'd be happy to learn more

Simple, ever wondered why major super powers usually do not export super computers to thirdworld nations?

Assad you need super computer with reliable architecture and experts who have years of experience in designing simulations in super computers to do nuclear test simulations. Period. The problem is Pakistan does not have any reliable super computer ans so I assume there will be a lack of software(super computer) design expertise, since they have not practised with super computers in the first place.

Super computers allows one to perfect and stramline the design of warhead without going for actual tests. India has a robust supercomupting infrastructure.

true, Sri Lanka is not possible

Yup

but Maldives apparently has a chinese naval base.
LankaWeb News

Ever heard operation cactus, ever wondered why Maldives does not vote in favour of Pakistan on Kashmir issue in OIC.

The base you are talking about , is nothing but berthing facility for Chinese containers passing through IOR. I think it is still in negotiations.

ever heard of the large balochi population in Oman? we practically share the same culture. pakistan has many agreements with the middle east, Oman is just another one on the list.

Ok the same muslim tangent and brother hood argument. For starters Balocji population Pakistan does not seem to like staying with you, it seems to receive lot of funding and support from wealthy donors. Forget this , let me quote Energon , who in another thread had cleared the air regarding Oman India relationship

Energon

India shares a far greater strategic role with Oman than does Pakistan. It is highly unlikely that Oman will do anything to threaten its ties with India.

A vast majority of Oman's economy runs on the backs of skilled Indian workers as does it's largest industry and primary source of income PDO (petroleum development of Oman). Oman's state run medical system is also highly dependent upon India for specialists, and their 'treatment-abroad" plan for highly complex medical and surgical cases that cannot be treated in Oman itself; before they would be sent to the UK, but now India has stepped in as a more affordable and convenient alternative. In the early 90s, Oman started an "Omanization" plan that was designed to provide employment to its youth (especially for semi-skilled jobs) instead of depending upon expatriates as is the case in all other oil rich gulf states. India is their primary resource for education and training.

The Indian army also trains a lot of Oman's officers since the Royal Oman Armed Forces like their Indian counterparts operate on the British doctrine and Indian companies play a significant role in the maintenance of Oman's military assets. For instance, France no longer makes any parts for the SEPECAT Jaguar, the primary asset of the ROAF... HAL takes care of their fleet.

As I said, it is highly unlikely Oman will risk all of this by letting PN establish a base.

what are you trying to say here? that india can easily wipe out pakistan's navy without any trouble

Yup in a scenario envisioned by you( bases in oman, sl and Maldives), it will be a caewalk for Indian navy, since your navy will be fragmented thus will not be able to muster enough firepower.

and that it's worthless to expand? the navy is going through an expansion, there's no denying that.

Yes, worthless to expand in terms of having foreign bases. Expansion of fleet strength and focussing it in your waters will definitely be worthy, providing with good defensive capabilities.

as for estabilishing bases in other countries, China is pretty good at doing that even though their naval presence is hardly a threat. why should Pakistan not do the same? pakistan can defend itself, whether it has bases abroad or not.

Asssad , Chinses naval bases in foreign soil does not mean they have berthed their warships in those waters, their primary waters are Taiwan strait and their warships are predominantly based there. There is no such thing as a Chinese Naval base , what it means is China has successfully secured berthing rights for its ships(containeer and oil) in Indian ocean region, it does not mean they have placed their naval asets in these places. China knows that its limited naval capability will be needed in key theatre of conflict and not lie idle in Indian ocean. So rule out foreign naval bases .

think

I have been thinking and am yet to figure it out. But let me tell you geopolitical advantage always proves disastrous, it always leads to big dogs hounding you to take control of your advantage.

 

[asaad-ul-islam]

Nope , this will be your curent procurement cycle, and will run for next two decades before you can purchase additionall goodies, you will have to wait for the next procrurement cycle. PN does not run on an infinite budget, so more additional purchases means more cuts in either your airforce or army and I assure you, both of them will not be quiet happy.

mind you, but i'm getting the feeling that someone is telling my navy what it can and what it can't do. the defense budget does not provide info on the amount of money used to make military acquisitions, it only tells us how much maintenance, fuel, and manpower costs.

PN will get F-22P, more importantly on terms of transfer of technology, hinting that PN will want to build its own warships now. we've also are looking at type 54 and will get 6 Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigates. the ships we are getting now are just interim solutions, we will possibly build our own and get more type 54 in the future.

Dude miniaturisation is one thing , but perfecting the design and being sure that it will work is another thing. Pakistans first nuclear test proved that its programme is not fully matured but it also gave them chance to understand the problems and find a solution. Given the number of weapons that you are capable of producing with a limited budget, your country will focus on designs that they can be sure will work, which means , air delivered and BM delivery.

Nuclear capable does not mean it has nuclear warhead ready. Miaturising a weapon is a complex process and unless one is sure through simulation and tests, countries like India and Pakistan will not divert from existing designs which according to their standards and understanding will be reliable.

Please back up the claims you are making. the indian nuclear tests didn't give completely positive results, as far as I know. the budget has totally been irrelevant to Pakistan, when it comes to producing nuclear weapons. the recent US report on the miscalculation of the amount of warheads Pakistan really has, should make that clear.

pakistan CAN fit nuclear warheads on cruise missiles. actually, there are even reports and fears that pakistan was able to fit a warhead onto its exocet missiles.

Simple, ever wondered why major super powers usually do not export super computers to thirdworld nations?

Assad you need super computer with reliable architecture and experts who have years of experience in designing simulations in super computers to do nuclear test simulations. Period. The problem is Pakistan does not have any reliable super computer ans so I assume there will be a lack of software(super computer) design expertise, since they have not practised with super computers in the first place.

Super computers allows one to perfect and stramline the design of warhead without going for actual tests. India has a robust supercomupting infrastructure.

IPF, nowadays it's not that difficult to obtain parts for ( supercomputer.Pakistan to benefit from new US supercomputer export rules ) Iran managed to make a supercomputer from illegaly obtained parts from the US.

so far, we don't have any supercomputing in the civilian sector, as far as I know, but I still wouldn't count that out. You can only assume Pakistan's military does not have supercomputing infrastructure. we can always obtain technology from China, very easily without any strings attached. besides with today's powerful servers, they're powerful enough to do the job if clustered.

as for test simulation software, I think Pakistan already took care of that thanks to India. there were reports of pakistani hackers who managed to access sensitive information relating to nuclear test management. ( Indbazaar > NetGuide > Cyber Issues ).

pakistan has also managed to obtain nuclear secrets from the US,
For sale: West’s deadly nuclear secrets - Times Online

i don't know what you are trying to do. whether you are denying the fact that pakistan has nuclear weapons, or if you are just putting your head under the sand. but let me make this clear, Pakistan HAS nuclear weapons and it can use them in anyway.

 

[indiapakistanfriendship]

mind you, but i'm getting the feeling that someone is telling my navy what it can and what it can't do. .

Nope, I did not ay that....

the defense budget does not provide info on the amount of money used to make military acquisitions, it only tells us how much maintenance, fuel, and manpower costs.

Still your navy does not operate on an infinite budget

Assad defence budget or no defence budget, it does not matter, all these aquisitions will have a set budget and would have been planned in consultation with the executive and the remining arms, so navy cannot go on in an endles purchasing spree. It will simply result in your bean counters diverting funds from other arms.

PN will get F-22P, more importantly on terms of transfer of technology, hinting that PN will want to build its own warships now. we've also are looking at type 54 and will get 6 Oliver Hazard Perry Class frigates. the ships we are getting now are just interim solutions, we will possibly build our own and get more type 54 in the future.

Dude for the n th time I repeat these are replacements for your older frigates and subs...

Please back up the claims you are making.

Assad there has been intesnse speculation and controversy over the success of the tests , based on air sample. The point is , every design will have certain flaws and these tests are to identify such flaws and rectify and streamline the design.

. the indian nuclear tests didn't give completely positive results, as far as I know

Yup , sources say that of, the number of tests carried out , two of them especially did not produce expected yeild, so again the scientists had to go to the drawing board, hey but them we can find the equation of state using super computers ...

the budget has totally been irrelevant to Pakistan, when it comes to producing nuclear weapons. the recent US report on the miscalculation of the amount of warheads Pakistan really has, should make that clear.

Assad this is the most absurd statement I have ever heard, the budget is relevant for every nation including China and India. If according to your estimates, if the budget is irrelevant, then you'd already be either bankrupt or your air arm would not have the cash to order to hundred odd J17. Period

IPF, nowadays it's not that difficult to obtain parts for ( supercomputer.Pakistan to benefit from new US supercomputer export rules )

Nope , it is still difficult to buy computers with robust architecture, any university can erect an grid an claim to have super computer, but the point of the matter is, is it robust enough.

Iran managed to make a supercomputer from illegaly obtained parts from the US.

Guess what , your PS2 can perform better than their super computer.

so far, we don't have any supercomputing in the civilian sector, as far as I know, but I still wouldn't count that out.

Dude super computers begin in civilian laboratories and end up in millitary hands, not the other way around. Building them is no big deal , but perfecting it is the problem and for that you need heck a lot of professors , Univ's working in that area..

You can only assume Pakistan's military does not have supercomputing infrastructure

Show me, at the minimum Pakistan has grid computing infrastructure first..

we can always obtain technology from China, very easily without any strings attached

Forget it , Its funny how you can assume that they will transfer such a key and sensitive tech to you in a platter, for which they have toiled for years. ahaam it ain't happening boss, at best they might allow you to run simulation tests in their computers, but then you don't have enough experts to write the code because you did not have the infrastructure to test the code in the first place.

besides with today's powerful servers, they're powerful enough to do the job if clustered.

At best they can be used to manage global finance and trade. Bio tech, genetics . wheather and Physics are fields that still rely on super computers..

as for test simulation software, I think Pakistan already took care of that thanks to India. there were reports of pakistani hackers who managed to access sensitive information relating to nuclear test management

Yeah yeah , the hackers and 007s .. and blah blah ... dude for petes sake such software and grids are connected using seperate lines and do not run on lines provided bu ISP's...

i don't know what you are trying to do. whether you are denying the fact that pakistan has nuclear weapons, or if you are just putting your head under the sand. but let me make this clear, Pakistan HAS nuclear weapons and it can use them in anyway.

Simple, Pakistan by now would have reliable (by your standards) nukes that can be deloivered by BM, SLBM and aircrafts. Period. Pakistan does not have reliable technology to miniaturise nukse that can be mated into cruise missiles. Even if you miniaturise, your engineers do not have infrastructure to test it, that means it is not yet reliable, so givne the resources , Pakistan might mate one or two nukes with cruise missiles, dont expect more...