Pakistan Navy: The Phoenix Rises

[The Accountant]

Does indian scrpenes are equipped with those ?

 

[Arsalan]

"how would you hide a land based prototype of naval reactor"?--maybe you can answer this question?

You DONT!
You do not HIDE a land based prototype of a naval reactor but you use misinform people about its purpose and quietly and silently keep working on it. Do you really think you know about the exact number of reactors operational in Pakistan at various locations? Labs and defense industry? EVERYTHING included?

I will drop a hint, theoretically speaking, it usually goes hand in hand with a full large scale nuclear reactor at some power facility!! OR a a lab//research institute!!

Just saying how it is done, not how we are DOING. Do keep the difference in mind before jumping into an other argument for the sake of it.

As per @Arsalan past posts the work on rector design is been on hold for several years due to financial constraints

And Arsalan will say the same again.
However i am not sure if it is the financial constraints that held us back. What was the real reason is a matter of speculation (one may even argue that the "lack of need" was a reason. What we were actually looking for can be acquired in form of conventional subs as @Oscar pointed out as well) but what i know is that the program was put in cold storage for a decade or so. There were these talks of reviving it not too long ago. However that was on a slow burner, a VERY VERY slow burner (mainly just in talks and meetings)

 

[SQ8]

You DONT!
You do not HIDE a land based prototype of a naval reactor but you use misinform people about its purpose and quietly and silently keep working on it. Do you really think you know about the exact number of reactors operational in Pakistan at various locations? Labs and defense industry? EVERYTHING included?

I will drop a hint, theoretically speaking, it usually goes hand in hand with a full large scale nuclear reactor at some power facility!! OR a a lab//research institute!!

Just saying how it is done, not how we are DOING. Do keep the difference in mind before jumping into an other argument for the sake of it.


And Arsalan will say the same again.
However i am not sure if it is the financial constraints that held us back. What was the real reason is a matter of speculation (one may even argue that the "lack of need" was a reason. What we were actually looking for can be acquired in form of conventional subs as @Oscar pointed out as well) but what i know is that the program was put in cold storage for a decade or so. There were these talks of reviving it not too long ago. However that was on a slow burner, a VERY VERY slow burner (mainly just in talks and meetings)

The idea actually came up due to the perception that the eastern bit of our neighbor was "safe" from our arsenal.

Technically the shaheen 3 remedies that, but even with the highly mobile launch systems that we have; there is always a probability that they could be targeted during a surprise strike with assistance from our "allies".

So the need to have a force at sea came up.
Based on our finances, the conops and requirements have evolved. So while a SSBN would have been thought out in 2003 with the economy roaring on, even our basic arsenal was being a burden under zardari.
Now that things are looking up again, the project comes back into the screws being worked on again.

The economy plays a big factor since we are not keen on a Soviet Union like burn out as technically our deterrent is enough.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The idea actually came up due to the perception that the eastern bit of our neighbor was "safe" from our arsenal.

Technically the shaheen 3 remedies that, but even with the highly mobile launch systems that we have; there is always a probability that they could be targeted during a surprise strike with assistance from our "allies".

So the need to have a force at sea came up.
Based on our finances, the conops and requirements have evolved. So while a SSBN would have been thought out in 2003 with the economy roaring on, even our basic arsenal was being a burden under zardari.
Now that things are looking up again, the project comes back into the screws being worked on again.

The economy plays a big factor since we are not keen on a Soviet Union like burn out as technically our deterrent is enough.

Other conceptual factors could take root too. For example, we have managed to roll out miniature nuclear warheads and - from what some reports say - boosters, enabling us to weaponize LACMs. Nuclear-tipped LACMs can be deployed from conventional AIP submarines, and may even be a bigger risk since the pool of prospective launch platforms - i.e. 8 modified Yuan SSPs - is much larger than fewer SSBNs. The MAD impact may not be there, but targeted strikes against incredibly valuable military industrial complexes (e.g. factories, shipyards, etc) or vital infrastructure is still a real risk in that scenario.

 

[wiseone2]

The idea actually came up due to the perception that the eastern bit of our neighbor was "safe" from our arsenal.

Technically the shaheen 3 remedies that, but even with the highly mobile launch systems that we have; there is always a probability that they could be targeted during a surprise strike with assistance from our "allies".

So the need to have a force at sea came up.
Based on our finances, the conops and requirements have evolved. So while a SSBN would have been thought out in 2003 with the economy roaring on, even our basic arsenal was being a burden under zardari.
Now that things are looking up again, the project comes back into the screws being worked on again.

The economy plays a big factor since we are not keen on a Soviet Union like burn out as technically our deterrent is enough.

The chances of anyone locating & destroying all of Pakistani nukes on land is zero

 

[SQ8]

The chances of anyone locating & destroying all of Pakistani nukes on land is zero

That they may be, but losing even 40-50 nukes before they are launched or used is a loss.
Losing the launch platforms is worse.

 

[wiseone2]

That they may be, but losing even 40-50 nukes before they are launched or used is a loss.
Losing the launch platforms is worse.

my take is USA or India or anyone else cannot destroy Pakistani nukes without nuking Pakistan
pre-emptive nuclear strike is impossible to justify under any circumstance

given that the acquisition of SSBN/SLBM is a prestige game of matching up with India

 

[Khafee]

my take is USA or India or anyone else cannot destroy Pakistani nukes without nuking Pakistan
pre-emptive nuclear strike is impossible to justify under any circumstance

given that the acquisition of SSBN/SLBM is a prestige game of matching up with India

@Indus Falcon Would you like to comment on the above statement in red?

 

[YeBeWarned]

That they may be, but losing even 40-50 nukes before they are launched or used is a loss.
Losing the launch platforms is worse.

will that me even possible ? i mean any Ballistic or CM entering Pakistan Orbital Space will get some Attention from the Radar , and will be detected .. so without wasting any time can't we just move in our Nukes into some underground safe bunkers ?

 

[wiseone2]

@Indus Falcon Would you like to comment on the above statement in red?

Please comment on the lines in black too

 

[SQ8]

will that me even possible ? i mean any Ballistic or CM entering Pakistan Orbital Space will get some Attention from the Radar , and will be detected .. so without wasting any time can't we just move in our Nukes into some underground safe bunkers ?

How far do you think you can go in 5 minutes?

Lets assume we launched at New Dehli, from a location 640km away. The location of the launcher is pretty plausible even though the Shaheen II is probably not aimed there, we will assume that it is being used.

lets say the missile launched at 5:15 PST. then going through boost and orbital phase.

By 5:17, the missile has already crossed the border and following the elliptical path that ballistic missiles do.
by 5:20 it is all over. What could ANYBODY In New Dehli do within 5 minutes to save themselves?
Even if they all got into Bugatti Veyrons.
The same goes for any nuke picked up on our side.

 

[wiseone2]

How far do you think you can go in 5 minutes?

Lets assume we launched at New Dehli, from a location 640km away. The location of the launcher is pretty plausible even though the Shaheen II is probably not aimed there, we will assume that it is being used.

lets say the missile launched at 5:15 PST. then going through boost and orbital phase.
View attachment 343303

By 5:17, the missile has already crossed the border and following the elliptical path that ballistic missiles do.
by 5:20 it is all over. What could ANYBODY In New Dehli do within 5 minutes to save themselves?
Even if they all got into Bugatti Veyrons.
The same goes for any nuke picked up on our side.



View attachment 343302

unless we have lasers to shoot down the missiles there is not much to do for given the short reaction time

 

[Penguin]

The idea of MANPADS from subs is quite old.

UK Blowpipe Manpads : Basically 4 Blowpipe missles wrapped around an optical guidance system, with the whole package designed to retract into the conning tower aka the sail of a sub. Tested in 1972 on HMS Aeneas (P427) and implemented on Israeli Gal class (UK built modified German designed HDW Type 206). Of course, this required the sub to be surfaced....

http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?107647-Submarine-anti-air&p=1722786#post1722786

Much later (early 2000) came the Triple-M hostable mast system, which would allow the submarine to remain submerged (at periscope depth). The mast system could accommodate different payloads, including Mauser RMK-30 'Mureana' recoilless 30mm autocannon, an RPV/UAV, or - possibly also - MANPADS. THe RMK-30 was intended to engage both air and surface targets.

http://gabler-luebeck.de/en/product/gabler-triple-m

http://forum.keypublishing.com/showthread.php?107647-Submarine-anti-air&p=1723159#post1723159

See also https://defence.pk/threads/boeing-showcases-new-sub-hunting-torpedo.432881/#post-8375144

Does indian scrpenes are equipped with those ?

No. At least not likely. The A3SM project was first unveiled during Euronaval 2012. In 2005, India chose the Scorpène design. The first Indian Scorpene was laid down 1 April 2009. The other 2 respectively October 2011 and December 2012. The first Scorpène submarine, INS Kalvari, undocked for the purpose of sea trials in April 2015 and will be delivered in September 2016.

http://www.navyrecognition.com/inde...elf-defence-against-threats-from-the-sky.html

Torpedo tubes launched SlSAMs would seem to give the submarine the best chances of remaining undetected untill launch, while still beling able to target active homing missiles based on e.g. noise (which would then lock on after launch)

New Missile Launcher Tested in Indiana
Release Date: 11/5/2007
A joint effort between scientists and engineers from NSWC Crane, NSWC Dahlgren, NSWC Indian Head, Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) and Virginia Tech resulted in the first successful test launch of a test article from a water piercing missile launcher (WPML) in September.
The WPML is an underwater missile launcher that creates its own path to the water's surface. Researchers anticipate this design will save the Navy money and reduce complexity for future submarines.
How the WPML works is the missile is housed within a concentric canister launcher. This inner cylinder guides the weapon while in the launcher. The missile exhaust moves up between the inner and outer cylinders and pierces the water creating a path for the missile to egress.
If WPML continues to work, the Navy won't have to make missiles specifically designed for submarines, but use existing missiles designed for aircraft or helicopters. Yagla added that anti-aircraft warfare missiles like Sidewinders "would allow the submarines to spend more time in shallow water supporting special operations missions ashore."http://www.navy.mil/submit/display.asp?story_id=32950

almost any type missile can be launched in an ascending cone of air to the surface
https://newwars.wordpress.com/2010/05/01/the-hybrid-missile-submarine/

An artist's concept of the Water Piercing Missile Launcher. The technology could provide submarines at periscope depth with a "stand and fight" defensive missile capability against surface threats.
https://newwars.wordpress.com/2010/04/18/navy-tests-advanced-sub-missile-launcher/

Although the results indicate the optimal launch depth, in terms of maximizing the launch depth while minimizing missile restraint time, is 14 m given an 8 m/s submarine speed it may be possible to launch a missile from a moving submarine at a speed of 5 m/s at a maximum depth of 20 m.
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0029801810000739

 

[Penguin]

 

[Arsalan]

The idea actually came up due to the perception that the eastern bit of our neighbor was "safe" from our arsenal.

Technically the shaheen 3 remedies that, but even with the highly mobile launch systems that we have; there is always a probability that they could be targeted during a surprise strike with assistance from our "allies".

So the need to have a force at sea came up.
Based on our finances, the conops and requirements have evolved. So while a SSBN would have been thought out in 2003 with the economy roaring on, even our basic arsenal was being a burden under zardari.
Now that things are looking up again, the project comes back into the screws being worked on again.

The economy plays a big factor since we are not keen on a Soviet Union like burn out as technically our deterrent is enough.

Exactly. That is what our people need to understand. Things are prioritized by sane people and then the funds are allocated accordingly.
I remember the time when the project was in full swing and there was lot of secrecy being maintained about it but then it was all wrapped up (within the Musharraf era). In Zardari times, you are right, well EVERYTHING was on hold. Now the interest is back on. The last i checked it was in that "interest" category mostly with not much actually happening. I am not sure if that have changed in the last year or so. (talking about December last year). Even, if it have i will still confidently say that 2017 timeline for a nuclear submarine is absolutely senseless. Yes, the best we can hope for is that we make our intentions known and announce some associated project for the nuclear submarine program. It is true that the nuclear propulsion was being worked on back in those good days but if we manage to pick it off from where it was left it will still need YEARS to be transformed into a working sub.

How far do you think you can go in 5 minutes?

Well once those nuclear tipped missile is launched, it is all over! The 5hit will hit the fan and it will be all over. Not talking about impact or detonation but the launch itself will be enough to trigger a nuclear apocalypse.