Pakistan Is the Crisis Flying Under the Radar - Foreign Policy

[New World]

The only thing that can bring stability in Pakistan is talks with India, especially on Kashmir. But I doubt talks are going to happen anytime soon. So Pakistan has to think what can it do to bring India to tables. And I also see Pakistan has no strategy to bring India to tables. If the enmity with India goes this way for another 2 or 3 decades more, then there is a possibility of a black swan event happening in Pakistan.

but it is india which cries day and night and saying that Pakistan is doing this and that..

 

[Rafael]

Pakistan will survive by the grace of Allah Almighty. I am not sure about United States. Next 3 years are very critical.

 

[The Deterrent]

@The Deterrent Sir i asked you even if we dont consider US as a foe they certainly consider us one and articles like these just further reinforce this POV. Now this begs the question should we still be afraid of what an Ohio class sub can do in return or rather build our own capability to an extent which provides us with enough deterrent even against the likes of US?

I understand your concerns, however we really don't have the resources to build that kind of a deterrent (even SLBM based). Please try to understand that Pakistan gains more from US (ref: all the military equipment) by being a friend, rather than by being a foe. Besides, I don't see how US threatens our existence.

 

[R Wing]

Same old regurgitated BS... move on.

Pakistan was supposed to have collapsed at least 50 times in the past 50 years according to these "analysts."

 

[The Eagle]

I just wonder why our strategic planners not see this looming threat and in fact still are hell bent in considering US an ally rather than a foe.

The rule of such game says, to be played in shadow and veiled so why not to carry as such. The whole policy cannot be molded with anti-US stance due to a specific group of such mindset against us so, the strategy will remain as being friend openly per given percentage while countering the threat of subjective mindset as well by not giving any chance for them to avail. Those are untold threats and needs to be dealt through untold ways.

 

[shhh]

I understand your concerns, however we really don't have the resources to build that kind of a deterrent (even SLBM based). Please try to understand that Pakistan gains more from US (ref: all the military equipment) by being a friend, rather than by being a foe. Besides, I don't see how US threatens our existence.

US threatens existence of every single muslim country.
They are supporting indian sponsored terrorism in Pakistan.
They are supporting ISIS which plans to carry out attacks against Pakistan.
They are arming india which threatens us almost daily.
List is long...

Besides we dont have to reveal it.

 

[Hakikat ve Hikmet]

The irony is that the author suggests to have a plan for Pakistan, but for us this is a stark warning that we need to be cautious as ever. Americans aren't trustworthy and under Trump they have become an utter mess.

Pakistan needs to keep the US at an arms length.



What you are reading in the above article is American frustration against Pakistan. It has gradually been building in previous years. They have given it their best shot and they have failed. From the occupation in Afghanistan aimed at Pakistan to economic sanctions and political blackmail. You name it. They have tried it all. They have tried to bully Pakistan into submission. They have not been able to achieve their mischievous goals.

They would have loved to balkanise Pakistan along ethnic and religious lines. They would have loved to create proxies in various provinces who ideally wouldn't get along and hate each others guts, but only serve US interests. Call it another Iraq. They would have loved to denuclearize Pakistan and take away its strength. They would have preferred to isolate Pakistan and force it to obey US/Indian demands. They would have loved to break the China Pakistan nexus and CPEC in the process.

They have utterly failed and now they are desperate. They would like to chalk up another plan to achieve their desired goals against Pakistan, but they fully comprehend the challenge now. It is a formidable challenge and the chances of success against Pakistan are minimal. Not only has Pakistan strengthened its military capability throughout the years, but with CPEC and more economic cooperation with China it has created new economic opportunities. This irks our enemies because Pakistan isn't isolated nor at the mercy of a single power. It irks them so much, that they are clueless and befuddled how to tackle Pakistan.

And, the worst of all, Uncle Trump isn't at all interested in these games, which have come at a heavy cost to the common white folks. All the swans, unfortunately, are now landing on the USA itself. The common white folks have found a voice in Trump after a long time, and they're in no mood to let it go. No matter what the price be - protectionism, isolationism etc. - alternatives are simply unacceptable to them. And, they're right. It means new geopolitical rules and strategies are to be written. The folks who can help themselves will survive, others will just fade away. What an opportunity for countries like Pak and Turkey, and a deathblow for those like KSA....

 

[Cookie Monster]

And, the worst of all, Uncle Trump isn't at all interested in these games, which have come at a heavy cost to the common white folks. All the swans, unfortunately, are now landing on the USA itself. The common white folks have found a voice in Trump after a long time, and they're in no mood to let it go. No matter what the price be - protectionism, isolationism etc. - alternatives are simply unacceptable to them. And, they're right. It means new geopolitical rules and strategies are to be written. The folks who can help themselves will survive, others will just fade away. What an opportunity for countries like Pak and Turkey, and a deathblow for those like KSA....

There's two kinds of supporters of Trump. One fall in the category that Hilary described as "deplorables" and the other group got behind him bcuz he was an "outsider". Someone who hadn't been part of the system and had made promises to "clean the swamp". This second group hoping for a change in this somewhat of an aristocratic system got duped bcuz Trump is just swapping out the previous "swamp dwellers" with his own. In fact he is taking it even more in the direction of an aristocratic system. The common white folks who found their voice in Trump had their hopes misplaced. I hope they realize it sooner than later.

 

[IceCold]

I understand your concerns, however we really don't have the resources to build that kind of a deterrent (even SLBM based). Please try to understand that Pakistan gains more from US (ref: all the military equipment) by being a friend, rather than by being a foe. Besides, I don't see how US threatens our existence.

Thank you for your reply and sorry for the delayed response. Yes i understand part of the argument that Pakistan does not have enough resources to build that kind of deterrent yet and also the fact that we need to focus on economy first but here i would also point out that we did not had the resources to build nuclear capability either but we managed it even with sanctions and rather a bad economy. Also i believe even if we dont put resources to build such a capability due to lack of funds or threat of sanctions etc at the very least there should be a realization among those who create our strategic doctrine about the possibility of such.
Secondly coming to Pakistan gains more from US and you gave military equipment reference, you would agree that it was in the past and that time is now over. I dont think Pakistan would be able to get any new hardware from the US anytime soon whether they are the F-16s or any other weapon system. On the other hand India is getting everything that it wants from the US which makes me come to the third point of how US threatens our existence? First by tilting the delicate conventional balance of power to India's favor, US is already indirectly threating our existence where we have to lower our nuclear threshold to counter the growing Indian conventional threat. Secondly the only country that has a problem with our nuclear weapons is US itself. Every time its the Pakistani nukes that are projected as a threat to world peace by calling them the least secure nuclear arsenal or presenting scenarios where so called jihaist would gain access to them as if they are lying open in a Jumma Bazar for them to get access. Now imagine a scenario where those nukes are indeed neutralized as US has been trying and practicing different means of doing that, will that not be equivalent to threating our existence?
Finally US is the only country to ever use nukes on non nuclear or smaller nations and have threaten to use them on others as well. In fact US using nuclear weapons on Pakistan to take out our nuclear capability due to lack of strategic depth has already been showcased in different US television media. Such a possibility no matter how small cannot/should not be ignored even if the chance of it happening is 0.1%.

The rule of such game says, to be played in shadow and veiled so why not to carry as such. The whole policy cannot be molded with anti-US stance due to a specific group of such mindset against us so, the strategy will remain as being friend openly per given percentage while countering the threat of subjective mindset as well by not giving any chance for them to avail. Those are untold threats and needs to be dealt through untold ways.

If i understand your post correctly you are advocating a more proactive lobbying by Pakistan to counter that just like what India is doing. The only hurdle i see are the successive governments of Pakistan which work for personal gains over Pakistans. We all know how Zardari tried to get an invitation for Trump swearing in ceremony and that Hussain Haqani tried everything to somehow get Zardari an invitation. Nawaz is no better either where his whole administration is busy in defending his corruption rather than Pakistan. So who is going to play the game from our side? No body seems to be bother in dealing with this untold threat as it seems (I hope and pray to God that i am wrong) and this as a Pakistani shakes me to the core.

 

[T-Rex]

Sad that Pakistan is only being blamed for the tension when India is not looking for dialogue as well. Of course the Islamic Republic gets the stick even when theres unprovoked Indian agression

You do realise what kind of sentiment people develop after this kind of bias, don't you?

Thank you for your reply and sorry for the delayed response. Yes i understand part of the argument that Pakistan does not have enough resources to build that kind of deterrent yet and also the fact that we need to focus on economy first but here i would also point out that we did not had the resources to build nuclear capability either but we managed it even with sanctions and rather a bad economy. Also i believe even if we dont put resources to build such a capability due to lack of funds or threat of sanctions etc at the very least there should be a realization among those who create our strategic doctrine about the possibility of such.
Secondly coming to Pakistan gains more from US and you gave military equipment reference, you would agree that it was in the past and that time is now over. I dont think Pakistan would be able to get any new hardware from the US anytime soon whether they are the F-16s or any other weapon system. On the other hand India is getting everything that it wants from the US which makes me come to the third point of how US threatens our existence? First by tilting the delicate conventional balance of power to India's favor, US is already indirectly threating our existence where we have to lower our nuclear threshold to counter the growing Indian conventional threat. Secondly the only country that has a problem with our nuclear weapons is US itself. Every time its the Pakistani nukes that are projected as a threat to world peace by calling them the least secure nuclear arsenal or presenting scenarios where so called jihaist would gain access to them as if they are lying open in a Jumma Bazar for them to get access. Now imagine a scenario where those nukes are indeed neutralized as US has been trying and practicing different means of doing that, will that not be equivalent to threating our existence?
Finally US is the only country to ever use nukes on non nuclear or smaller nations and have threaten to use them on others as well. In fact US using nuclear weapons on Pakistan to take out our nuclear capability due to lack of strategic depth has already been showcased in different US television media. Such a possibility no matter how small cannot/should not be ignored even if the chance of it happening is 0.1%.


If i understand your post correctly you are advocating a more proactive lobbying by Pakistan to counter that just like what India is doing. The only hurdle i see are the successive governments of Pakistan which work for personal gains over Pakistans. We all know how Zardari tried to get an invitation for Trump swearing in ceremony and that Hussain Haqani tried everything to somehow get Zardari an invitation. Nawaz is no better either where his whole administration is busy in defending his corruption rather than Pakistan. So who is going to play the game from our side? No body seems to be bother in dealing with this untold threat as it seems (I hope and pray to God that i am wrong) and this as a Pakistani shakes me to the core.

You have spoken wisely. Most probably you won't have a reply from @The Deterrent. He has a lot to lose if uncle sam becomes angry, at least that is the impression I get from people like him.

 

[IceCold]

You have spoken wisely. Most probably you won't have a reply from @The Deterrent. He has a lot to lose if uncle sam becomes angry, at least that is the impression I get from people like him.

Deterrent Sir and I both are Pakistanis and when it comes to Pakistan i dont think we both would shy away from saying out the right thing that favors Pakistan and not uncle SAM.

 

[The Deterrent]

Thank you for your reply and sorry for the delayed response. Yes i understand part of the argument that Pakistan does not have enough resources to build that kind of deterrent yet and also the fact that we need to focus on economy first but here i would also point out that we did not had the resources to build nuclear capability either but we managed it even with sanctions and rather a bad economy. Also i believe even if we dont put resources to build such a capability due to lack of funds or threat of sanctions etc at the very least there should be a realization among those who create our strategic doctrine about the possibility of such.
Secondly coming to Pakistan gains more from US and you gave military equipment reference, you would agree that it was in the past and that time is now over. I dont think Pakistan would be able to get any new hardware from the US anytime soon whether they are the F-16s or any other weapon system. On the other hand India is getting everything that it wants from the US which makes me come to the third point of how US threatens our existence? First by tilting the delicate conventional balance of power to India's favor, US is already indirectly threating our existence where we have to lower our nuclear threshold to counter the growing Indian conventional threat. Secondly the only country that has a problem with our nuclear weapons is US itself. Every time its the Pakistani nukes that are projected as a threat to world peace by calling them the least secure nuclear arsenal or presenting scenarios where so called jihaist would gain access to them as if they are lying open in a Jumma Bazar for them to get access. Now imagine a scenario where those nukes are indeed neutralized as US has been trying and practicing different means of doing that, will that not be equivalent to threating our existence?
Finally US is the only country to ever use nukes on non nuclear or smaller nations and have threaten to use them on others as well. In fact US using nuclear weapons on Pakistan to take out our nuclear capability due to lack of strategic depth has already been showcased in different US television media. Such a possibility no matter how small cannot/should not be ignored even if the chance of it happening is 0.1%.

Developing nuclear weapons was much less costly as compared to what you are proposing. The realization is there, and contingency plans are in place, just not against US mainland.
The weapons argument is very naive, till the time Pakistan has US made weapons in its inventory (F-16s, M-109s etc), Pakistan is dependent on the US. India's conventional superiority is going to rise anyway, its just that they are paying the highest bidder. If it wasn't US, they would've got the military equipment from Russia or Europe. Lastly, US doesn't have a genuine problem with Pakistan's nuclear weapons. Its their few Senators, Congressmen (lobbied by Indians) and their media who see our nukes as a threat due to their naivety. If the US was really bothered by Pakistan's nukes, it would've nipped them in the bud in the early 2000s.

Your concerns are valid, however they are just not enough to dictate a doctrinal and strategic shift in the minds of Pakistani strategic planners.

You have spoken wisely. Most probably you won't have a reply from @The Deterrent. He has a lot to lose if uncle sam becomes angry, at least that is the impression I get from people like him.

Oh please, learn something about geopolitics before ranting.

 

[The Eagle]

If i understand your post correctly you are advocating a more proactive lobbying by Pakistan to counter that just like what India is doing. The only hurdle i see are the successive governments of Pakistan which work for personal gains over Pakistans. We all know how Zardari tried to get an invitation for Trump swearing in ceremony and that Hussain Haqani tried everything to somehow get Zardari an invitation. Nawaz is no better either where his whole administration is busy in defending his corruption rather than Pakistan. So who is going to play the game from our side? No body seems to be bother in dealing with this untold threat as it seems (I hope and pray to God that i am wrong) and this as a Pakistani shakes me to the core.

Sir, there is two types of games yet played... One we can openly with statements, photo session and all through discussions either in Islamabad Meeting or D.C that we can call official and diplomatic relations as well as sometimes more friendly with old allies.

There is another chapter, viewed by some special offices that even US Elected President wouldn't have much to say in such affairs though would be briefed with the same as US Interests programs but who knows. Same goes to every country that there are even diplomatic strategies that couldn't be made public let alone countering the conspiracy and possible threat.

What I am suggesting is, indeed we need a strong foreign diplomacy but given the choice (as you referred as well), that is not possible by depending upon these thugs/cults and corrupt breed that works for personal gain and interest only. But, still there are genius minds that holds power to say and define special strategies to dealt with such kind of threats/untold programs but as I said earlier, the rule of game says, to be played in shadows so let it be. What the author actually said, is a desperate attempt firstly validating that there is such of thought as well as previously it was untold and secondly, money talks and we know how it works. Pakistan can lobby and should be doing so but there are limitations and we have more responsibilities to carry on along with threats with less support.

The author actually openly tells that whats going on and as the same was not disclosed previously, actually advising the newly elected president to carry on as such or in other words, we cay read it as "A Leak of Black Programs" for us. IMO, we wouldn't be depending upon such weak, corrupt and infected politicians alone for a counter diplomacy for these kinds of matters that are designed to play in shadows and all & all we have to do is, be aware and read things with open minds and not to fall for the bait. I hope you got it.

 

[airmarshal]

Trump's approach to Pakistan is taking shape now. Visa restrictions and extreme vetting. Thats where the relationship with Pakistan will become more distant. This is what we want too.Pakistan should strengthen relations with regional powers like Russia and China. Not alienating US but keep a distance. A working relationship is just good enough.

The way Trump is going in the first week, he will do so much harm to US that no one else could imagine.

Accept it. He is a white supremacist. Not may an extreme version but a milder one nonetheless.

 

[Verve]

The way I see it, the acceleration in our missile programme by our military establishment after US invasion of Afghanistan was the best possible long term answer to this gameplay by the USA.

Maybe the shadow game was figured out back then itself and considering we were not strong enough to say a blatant No then we decided to play the game. It has been a costly game but we are still intact and militarily stronger than 2001/2002.

Surely our establishment has been aware of US intentions, if likes of ISI are as effective as we deem them to be. Such as 1998 papers of US's CFR on diminishing military and public relations would've been scrutinized in the inner circles.

You guys know better, I'm just an observer. All I can see is that we've pulled through thanks to the Almighty Allah.

We urgently need a government that is Pakistani made, not by USA/UK etc, for effective diplomacy. Keep it as friendly as possible with USA and continue to reduce dependancy as we have been.