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Pakistan Is Not Collapsing!

Pakistan needs to follow the Indonesia model..
Indonesia and pakistan are almost same populations have had insurgencies and martial laws in past.
There are many things pakistan can learn from Indonesia.

A thread in this regards can definitely offer some .advice.

The main thing is Pakistan doesnt prepare the future turbulence in global economic condition. This is why Pakistan still spend like Crazy in Defense and still want to buy 60 J10 in 2021 despite the financial situation.

After getting Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998, Indonesia does many reform from political, institution, and finance. We also made law to force any government spend on education at 20% of government budget.

We are preparing this for about 20 years ago as we cap budget deficit at less than 3 %, increasing banking capital requirement where these strategy will make Indonesia grow slower but with more solid and healthy financial situation.
 
China has a lot invested in Pakistan, it is in it's interests perhaps not to see total collapse. I said Iran since they hate the US and their could be US hands involved which they would like kicking out.

And I believe Pakistan has much better more competent and nationalistic people in it's civilian population that can better take over the national institutions.

And address the sociocultural things you mentioned, implement a system of stronger accountability against corruption, and demand productive growth.

The main priority Pakistan needs is a system which prioritises meritocracy everywhere. Meritocracy is missing hence we've been on a steady decline due to too much inept management.

I fear that the elite capture of Pakistan is so entrenched that everything you have painted cannot occur without a bloody revolution which is the radiation therapy used to address such entrenched cancers.
 
The main thing is Pakistan doesnt prepare the future turbulence in global economic condition. This is why Pakistan still spend like Crazy in Defense and still want to buy 60 J10 in 2021 despite the financial situation.

After getting Asian Financial Crisis in 1997-1998, Indonesia does many reform from political, institution, and finance. We also made law to force any government spend on education at 20% of government budget.

We are preparing this for about 20 years ago as we cap budget deficit at less than 3 %, increasing banking capital requirement where these strategy will make Indonesia grow slower but with more solid and healthy financial situation.

If our state budget situation is sound and healthy and with economy that is managed well, it will give confident on investors in bond and stock market, make our currency possibility to withstand global challenge higher.

Pakistan needs to ask IMF/Saudi/UAE/China some billion USD to finance their economy, while if Pakistan has sound budget, strong stock market and currency, Pakistan doesnt need to borrow money from them, Pakistan can refinance its debt by issuing bond and issue another bond (with low interest rate/yield) to fill the gap between Government spending and its state revenue.

Confident is very important. Asian Financial Crisis happened due to this matter. Global finance with its market economic system relies on confident. Many currency strength is also depending on confidence level in the market system
 
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Pakistan is not collapsing because it already has collapsed. LCs are defaulting, businesses closing down, the stock market crashing again and again, no electricity in the country in many areas for more than 24 hours.
The only thing that hasn't collapsed is the east India company known to us now as the Pakistan army.
 
@epebble

True. But "secular decline" you describe can be reversed, an outright collapse cannot be. LEB, EGY, PAK can all be revived and put on the right course. It will depend on the choices and decisions of the leaders of these countries.

Regards

Unfortunately the leaders are, aftercall, representation of the awam. To the whole world, it is quite apparent what the priorities should be. But alas! that is not the same case for either Pakistani awam or the leaders. Just go through the threads that are being discussed outside of these economic & political sub-forums here,

Or, just dissect the discussions in the recently concluded Davos 2023 World Economic Forum. What the Indian & the world leaders, economists & technocrats had discussed viz-a-vis what the Pakistani delegation had raised.

Priorities, man.. Priorities & Churans are the curses.
 
@Indos Bro

This is why Pakistan still spend like Crazy in Defense and still want to buy 60 J10 in 2021 despite the financial situation.

That is because unlike Indonesia, Pakistan has to cope with 2.5 very hostile neighbours- Modi-fied India, Iran and Afghanistan.

Regards
 
Or just dissect the discussions in the recently concluded Davos 2023 World Economic Forum. What the Indian & the world leaders, economists & technocrats had discussed viz-a-vis what the Pakistani delegation had raised.
Can you please paraphrase what was discussed? Thanks.

@Indos Bro

This is why Pakistan still spend like Crazy in Defense and still want to buy 60 J10 in 2021 despite the financial situation.

That is because unlike Indonesia, Pakistan has to cope with 2.5 very hostile neighbours- Modi-fied India, Iran and Afghanistan.

Regards
When everybody in the world appears as an adversary, it is time to change the glasses or take a good look in a (concave) mirror.
 
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Kam kerky kamana hai ya free money pe hi guzara kerna hai,

Bs yei faisla kerna hai ab Pakistan ko.
 
Can you please paraphrase what was discussed? Thanks.

That will open a can of worms and will probably lead to a troll fest here. I wanted to open a separate thread on the same and thought why bother, as I know for sure that it will end up being troll fest and dick measuring contest.

However, for your sake, I'll write a few lines. Rest you can google the various pressers, forum discussions & joint interviews. Also the visibility factor by way of corporate & theme lounges was tremendous.

In a nutshell, Indians and the world discussed (and agreed & appreciated) about the plans for telecoms equipment/ semiconductor infrastructure in next 3-5 yrs; Sustainable energy to compliment the inevitable growths; plans for road/ water / power & other infrastructures; Increasing ease of doing bossiness; Indigenous auto industry outlook and leadership roles in world business activities; attracting global investments by churning the supply chains with its policies like Product-Linked incentives; Tech sector slowdown & India's role to reverse it; Displayed economic resilience etc. apart from signing of MoUs & visible interest to invest by global players.

Pakistan raised UN resolution on Kashmir, India's lack of willingness to discuss Kashmir (which, btw, were completely ignored by all & sundry), Pakistan climate crisis & the world's obligation to help it, "New World Order" conspiracy theory & dealt with cautions from IMF. Only positives for Pakistan was selection of Pakistan’s Saad Hayat Tamman as Young Global Leader.
 
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Perhaps not today... But Pakistan's trajectory is undeniable. Pakistan current trends is unsustainable. If not today, tomorrow it will meet it's fate. That is something history has shown. No nation is invincible and infallible.

This fact of reality is not just coming from a "disgruntled Pakistani". It's just facts.,..
First phase is always denial

Perhaps not today... But Pakistan's trajectory is undeniable. Pakistan current trends is unsustainable. If not today, tomorrow it will meet it's fate. That is something history has shown. No nation is invincible and infallible.

This fact of reality is not just coming from a "disgruntled Pakistani". It's just facts.,..
First phase is always denial
 
#Russia & #Pakistan might cut unprecedented #oil deal, making #Islamabad yet another #Asian customer of Russian crude, subject to G7/EU oil cap & sanctions. Pak to pay through a “friendly” country, presumably #China – a power play for Beijing. #energy https://www.gzeromedia.com/russia-and-pakistan-might-cut-unprecedented-oil-deal

Cold War rivals Russia and Pakistan are negotiating an agreement for the Russians to start selling cheap oil to energy-starved Pakistan in March.

This will make Islamabad yet another Asian customer of Russian crude at a time when Moscow’s cash inflows are limited by a G7/EU oil cap and sanctions. Also, considering Pakistan is dead broke, payments might be made through a “friendly” country, presumably China – a power play for Beijing, whose yuan will be used for the transactions, giving the currency more sway as an alternative to the US dollar.

How is this deal going to affect American interests in the region? And why is Pakistan, which wants to balance its ties with Washington, giving business to the Russians perhaps through China?

First, some history. Although the agreement isn’t finalized, it’ll be geopolitically novel when it is because Pakistan is an unlikely destination for Russian business. Unlike India, Islamabad and Moscow have had no commercial ties for decades.

Considering Pakistan spent the Cold War spying on the USSR and/or attacking its troops in Afghanistan (the Soviet Union paid back in kind by arming India, Pakistan’s arch-rival), the two sides haven’t exactly behaved like partner-material.

Enter China. Pakistan and China have been “Iron Brothers” for decades. Even though Islamabad was a non-treaty US ally until not too long ago, the Pakistanis and the Chinese have always remained “all-weather friends.”

However, as India settled into the role of becoming America’s strategic partner in the region, displacing Pakistan as the preferred South Asian ally over the last two decades, the Chinese encouraged Pakistan to open up to the Russians, and vice versa. Now, a once hesitant Islamabad doesn’t just want Russian oil, but also natural gas, weapons and more. Still, Islamabad wants to stay aligned with the American camp.

Why is Pakistan doing this? Islamabad’s energy bills make the biggest chunk of its imports. Cheaper oil from Russia will obviously help its escalating balance of payments crisis and ballooning trade deficit.

But the biggest issue is with dwindling foreign exchange reserves. A year ago, Pakistan had $17 billion in the bank. Today, foreign reserves have dwindled to $4.3 billion, which will pay for less than a month of imports.

To manage the dollar crunch, Pakistan could use the Chinese yuan in a swap with China to pay Russia once the oil flows in (it expects to get 35% of its annual crude oil imports from 70 million barrels of Russian crude), putting its import-regime firmly in the China-Russia camp.

Pakistan thus finds itself between a rock and a hard place: It needs the cheap Russian oil but also wants to avoid antagonizing the US and its friends in the Gulf, Pakistan’s main energy suppliers — especially considering that Islamabad has been negotiating bailouts with the Washington-backed IMF and deferred oil payments from the Saudis and the Emiratis.

While the Pakistanis defend their position by citing neighboring India as an example of a country that buys Russian oil even as it tilts towards the US and deals with the Gulf states, Islamabad is in a very different position compared to New Delhi because Pakistan is crawling toward default.
 

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