Pakistan Is Not Collapsing!

[Indos]

What you mention are valid points but those are technicals.

Concept of accountability, justice, meritocracy is what is lacking. You’ll have same faces back with a vengeance.

Current economic environment is damaging to many countries, especially countries that dont have good preparation and lack of fiscal discipline. This external environment will not stay like this forever, oil price has already been at around 80 USD per barrel compared to around 100 USD per barrel in middle of 2022. Gas price is already decreasing a lot. Coal and Palm Oil Price have already been moderating compared to its 2022 level. The Fed tightening policy is still problem though, due to its hawkish and determination to reach 5 % interest rate

The same like Indonesia faced in 1997-1998 and then 2013-2015, both are caused by external factor, first is Asian Financial Crisis that started in Thailand and South Korea, then The Fed tightening policy in 2013-2015.

Pakistan will still be able to grow at 4. 34 % until 2030, not much different with India at 5.2 %. This is analyst made by incorporating the growth in Economic Complexity Index and others ceteris paribus (other variables stay the same)

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

 

[Olympus81]

This shows the limitation and stupidity of this AI, and for you not having an ounce of the brain to think:

- large population; doesn't mean anything if the quality of the population is subpar; Israel, with a much smaller population out does Pakistan, even Bangladesh, and Indonesia
- strategic location; with the end of the Afghan conflict and Russia neutralized on European doorstep, Pakistan no longer needed, India is the new boy toy
- rich cultural heritage; the f*ck this has to do with anything economy related? I'm sure the rich cultural heritage of pre-British India, with whores and Kusra's dancing in their mahals, etc., saved them right from the Brits.

@Bleek @Mirzali Khan @Olympus81

Why is it that all the Phudus are born in Pakistan proper?

Rich Cultural Heritage is a good one.

This superiority complex is also the reason for Pakistan’s downfall. When you think you are Lumber 1 then the discussion ends there.

Even Bangladesh with similar population and a smaller country is outdoing Pakistan in almost every aspect.

9 million overseas Pakistanis remittances > Pakistan’s exports. But Lumber 1 hai.

 

[Indos]

Current economic environment is damaging to many countries, especially countries that dont have good preparation and lack of fiscal discipline. This external environment will not stay like this forever, oil price has already been at around 80 USD per barrel compared to around 100 USD per barrel in middle of 2022. Gas price is already decreasing a lot. Coal and Palm Oil Price have already been moderating compared to its 2022 level. The Fed tightening policy is still problem though, due to its hawkish and determination to reach 5 % interest rate

The same like Indonesia faced in 1997-1998 and then 2013-2015, both are caused by external factor, first is Asian Financial Crisis that started in Thailand and South Korea, then The Fed tightening policy in 2013-2015.

Pakistan will still be able to grow at 4. 34 % until 2030, not much different with India at 5.2 %. This is analyst made by incorporating the growth in Economic Complexity Index.

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

The researchers place the diversity of tacit knowledge—or knowhow—that a society has at the heart of its economic growth story. This measure of economic complexity, as the diversity and sophistication of a country’s knowhow, is able to closely explain differences in country incomes. According to Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Growth Lab, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), and the leading researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity, “A stylized fact of the world today is that poor countries produce few things that everyone knows how to produce, while rich countries produce many things including some things few countries know how to produce. Growth is being driven by a process of diversification to enter more, and increasingly more complex, production.”

The true value of the economic complexity measure is in its accuracy in predicting future growth, which it has been shown to do better than any other single measure in predicting growth. By identifying those countries whose economic complexity exceeds expectations based on its income level, the researchers find a strong predictor of the countries that will grow faster in the coming decade. The Atlas of Economic Complexity features data visualizations covering over 5,000 goods and services to understand the economic dynamics and growth opportunities for every country worldwide.

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

 

[Maula Jatt]

We are not "collapsing", that's not what I fear
but we are stagnating for the last 40 plus years atleast, a slow death

We need to sit together- millitary, politicians, buerecrucy, businessmen and figure out a way forward towards bringing political stability And rule of law in our country

Without political stability, balance of power and set role under the constitution we'll never grow as a country

Millitary interference is killing our country

 

[Olympus81]

Even half measured accountability will result in 30% of the rot out of the system. At the moment there is no semblance of that.

The rest of the rot can be weeded out, provided the system is strong and sustainable.

Question is, who’ll do it.

 

[Clutch]

Pakistan is collapsing but its corrupt establishment is thriving. Its looking to engage USA to get free dollars to make them more powerful and more rich. Pakistan and its corrupt elite are mutually exclusive.

Many people get the perception that lines of expensive cars, big shopping malls is a sign of prosperity. With a sliver of population living this lifestyle, the rest of the country is reeling under bad economic mismanagement and misappropriation of resources.

Please define collapse for me? Our country does not have a billion dollars of its own. India, Malaysia, China, Singapore, Israel got their independence around same time as us. Look at each of the countries even in economic downturn post pandemic. Vietnam was completely destroyed by American war in 70s. Its one of the miracles of Asia now. Turkey lagged far behind many developing countries. Now it has pulled ahead many European economies.

How can you measure success by comparing with the failed or collapsing countries? If US or China are competing for influence in Pakistan, we will be wooed by the one which gives us the most 'bheek'. If there is competition for influence, a smart country and self respecting people look to extract maximum benefit that returns long term dividend. But our corrupt establishment compromises for its influence and a few properties here or there.

You need sustained industrialization, investment, exports so that Pakistan can become self sustaining and self respecting nation. In the last 10 months of regime change, where have you seen any focus on the development of the country? You just see establishment, gone mad in its power lust, obsessed to strangulate a genuine political movement.

Excellent post. Grounded in reality. Enjoyed every word. The OP needs to get off of the delusions of Pakistan as infallible and invincible.

 

[TheSolution]

We are not "collapsing", that's not what I fear
but we are stagnating for the last 40 plus years atleast, a slow death

We need to sit together- millitary, politicians, buerecrucy, businessmen and figure out a way forward towards bringing political stability And rule of law in our country

Without political stability, balance of power and set role under the constitution we'll never grow as a country

Millitary interference is killing our country

There is something preventing this from happening clearly, the entire country is witnessing the shìt show but why is there no assurance or at least explanation from the leaders?

There is confusion in the top leadership, perhaps mixed loyalties/interests, uncertainties. But there seems to be no dedicated interest to shift things back on track and put the BS aside.

Either the leaders are completely inept/careless and have no idea what to do or simply don't care, or they simply have no interests or desire to fix things and there is some sort of internal power tussle

 

[Clutch]

We are not "collapsing", that's not what I fear
but we are stagnating for the last 40 plus years atleast, a slow death

We need to sit together- millitary, politicians, buerecrucy, businessmen and figure out a way forward towards bringing political stability And rule of law in our country

Without political stability, balance of power and set role under the constitution we'll never grow as a country

Millitary interference is killing our country

It's the slow boil frog effect that fits Pakistan perfectly....


The boiling frog is an apologue describing a frog being slowly boiled alive. The premise is that if a frog is put suddenly into boiling water, it will jump out, but if the frog is put in tepid water which is then brought to a boil slowly, it will not perceive the danger and will be cooked to death.

there is no way the Keeper of the Two Holy Cities will allow Pak to vanish.

Lol... The Keeper of The Two Holy Cities I e. House of Saud has moved on.... They busy building the Cities of the Future (Neom) and no longer look at Pakistan as their "nuclear option".

Fact.

 

[Clutch]

There is something preventing this from happening clearly, the entire country is witnessing the shìt show but why is there no assurance or at least explanation from the leaders?

There is confusion in the top leadership, perhaps mixed loyalties/interests, uncertainties. But there seems to be no dedicated interest to shift things back on track and put the BS aside.

Either the leaders are completely inept/careless and have no idea what to do or simply don't care, or they simply have no interests or desire to fix things and there is some sort of internal power tussle

I fear it's all of the above as you listed.

 

[TheSolution]

I fear it's all of the above as you listed.

Probably is.

They're completely inept so even if they wanted to set things on the right track, they are simply incapable of doing so - it would require completely new staff and institutional reforms.

And they probably have no desire to do so ,and are making money from the current disaster - either they're being paid to purposefully do this or some other form of corruption

I personally feel the rot is so deep that only intervention from countries like Iran/China can save us. Not monetarily but intelligence wise - finding internal foreign assets, etc.

 

[-blitzkrieg-]

Current economic environment is damaging to many countries, especially countries that dont have good preparation and lack of fiscal discipline. This external environment will not stay like this forever, oil price has already been at around 80 USD per barrel compared to around 100 USD per barrel in middle of 2022. Gas price is already decreasing a lot. Coal and Palm Oil Price have already been moderating compared to its 2022 level. The Fed tightening policy is still problem though, due to its hawkish and determination to reach 5 % interest rate

The same like Indonesia faced in 1997-1998 and then 2013-2015, both are caused by external factor, first is Asian Financial Crisis that started in Thailand and South Korea, then The Fed tightening policy in 2013-2015.

Pakistan will still be able to grow at 4. 34 % until 2030, not much different with India at 5.2 %. This is analyst made by incorporating the growth in Economic Complexity Index and others ceteris paribus (other variables stay the same)

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

Pakistan needs to follow the Indonesia model..
Indonesia and pakistan are almost same populations have had insurgencies and martial laws in past.
There are many things pakistan can learn from Indonesia.

A thread in this regards can definitely offer some .advice.

 

[TheSolution]

Pakistan needs to follow the Indonesia model..
Indonesia and pakistan are almost same populations have had insurgencies and martial laws in past.
There should be a thread on this one.

A thread start a thread and offer some .advice.

@Indos Could maybe start one and title it "How Pakistan can learn from Indonesia" or something...

 

[Clutch]

I personally feel the rot is so deep that only intervention from countries like Iran/China can save us. Not monetarily but intelligence wise - finding internal foreign assets, etc.

An interesting thought... However, if human history is an indicator of how things actually evolve.... No nation comes to the rescue of another nation that is hell bent on self destruction and implosion. It's a futile attempt to do so.

Nations only come to the rescue of other nations that are themselves interested in being rescued. Not those on a suicide mission of self destruction because of greed, corruption, treason, and plain old stupidity.

 

[Indos]

The researchers place the diversity of tacit knowledge—or knowhow—that a society has at the heart of its economic growth story. This measure of economic complexity, as the diversity and sophistication of a country’s knowhow, is able to closely explain differences in country incomes. According to Ricardo Hausmann, director of the Growth Lab, professor at the Harvard Kennedy School (HKS), and the leading researcher of The Atlas of Economic Complexity, “A stylized fact of the world today is that poor countries produce few things that everyone knows how to produce, while rich countries produce many things including some things few countries know how to produce. Growth is being driven by a process of diversification to enter more, and increasingly more complex, production.”

The true value of the economic complexity measure is in its accuracy in predicting future growth, which it has been shown to do better than any other single measure in predicting growth. By identifying those countries whose economic complexity exceeds expectations based on its income level, the researchers find a strong predictor of the countries that will grow faster in the coming decade. The Atlas of Economic Complexity features data visualizations covering over 5,000 goods and services to understand the economic dynamics and growth opportunities for every country worldwide.

View attachment 912820

The Atlas of Economic Complexity by @HarvardGrwthLab

Visualize global trade data and economic growth opportunities for every country

atlas.cid.harvard.edu

 

[TheSolution]

An interesting thought... However, if human history is an indicator of how things actually evolve.... No nation comes to the rescue of another nation that is hell bent on self destruction and implosion. It's a futile attempt to do so.

Nations only comes me to the rescue of those that are themselves interested in being rescued. Not those on a suicide mission of self destruction because of greed, corruption, treason, and plain old stupidity.

China has a lot invested in Pakistan, it is in it's interests perhaps not to see total collapse. I said Iran since they hate the US and their could be US hands involved which they would like kicking out.

And I believe Pakistan has much better more competent and nationalistic people in it's civilian population that can better take over the national institutions.

And address the sociocultural things you mentioned, implement a system of stronger accountability against corruption, and demand productive growth.

The main priority Pakistan needs is a system which prioritises meritocracy everywhere. Meritocracy is missing hence we've been on a steady decline due to too much inept management.