Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

If Dems win - Pak loses - unfriendly government that cuts up anything for Pak that could possibly come. Jumps on board with India and the Kamala Harris link.

The logic here is quite simple. Try to think strategically and not the inconclusive way Pak has always done.

IMO the facts don't necessarily point to that conclusion.

Be it the Reps or Dems, the US isn't going to change its tract on Pakistan.

Yes, the degree of harshness can vary between one administration or the other, but the general point is the same: cut Pakistan out.

India isn't going to play 100% ball on China if there's a strong Pakistan out and about. So, the US will either work to proactively stop sensitive transfer of arms to Pakistan, or not do anything to support it.

Obama had shown a willingness to transfer arms that could drive counter-insurgency (COIN) operations, but only specific types of weapons, and in limited quantities. So, the approval of 15 AH-1Z and 8 F-16 Block-52+ was totally tenable (and it happened under Obama), but I doubt we'd see them approve anything more substantial.

Trump was just a jerk. He was a jerk to Pakistan, to Canada, to Europe, to Asia and pretty much anyone else who could show him up. You'd literally have to be a bully-magnet to get on Trump's good side.

Moving forward, Pakistan isn't going to get a thing from either party in the US. Islamabad's best step forward is to limit its ties with Washington to 'professional matters' -- i.e., get 3rd-party ITAR transfers for core inputs like engines (CTS800, LM2500, etc), electronics, OBOGS, steel, etc. Don't do anything to actively upset them (unless you want to pick that fight), but don't do them any favours.

 

[The Raven]

The discussion about the US is moot in any case. Aside from a last 'swansong' for the PAF and additional used/new Vipers are acquired, the days of Pakistan acquiring anything substantial from the US, either through hard cash or subsidised, are quickly drawing to a close. it's not as if Pakistan has any realistic option of say the F-35, for example.

But that's a growing trend among emerging regional powers in any case, nations are looking for in-house development or collaboration with partners that don't have any political strings attached, e.g. Turkey (TFX, T-129, Milgem etc), Korea and Indonesia (KFX), and even the US' next prodigy India isn't keen to become under the yolk of the US. Only the Gulf Arabs are willing to acquire substantial US hardware, but those days look numbered as well.

The US aerospace defence majors will find it difficult to sell big ticket items, instead smaller turnkey technology suppliers from the west are likely to gain more traction in terms of supplying critical enabling technologies for developing defence programmes around the world, and this is where Pakistan should focus next.

 

[Yasser76]

The discussion about the US is moot in any case. Aside from a last 'swansong' for the PAF and additional used/new Vipers are acquired, the days of Pakistan acquiring anything substantial from the US, either through hard cash or subsidised, are quickly drawing to a close. it's not as if Pakistan has any realistic option of say the F-35, for example.

But that's a growing trend among emerging regional powers in any case, nations are looking for in-house development or collaboration with partners that don't have any political strings attached, e.g. Turkey (TFX, T-129, Milgem etc), Korea and Indonesia (KFX), and even the US' next prodigy India isn't keen to become under the yolk of the US. Only the Gulf Arabs are willing to acquire substantial US hardware, but those days look numbered as well.

The US aerospace defence majors will find it difficult to sell big ticket items, instead smaller turnkey technology suppliers from the west are likely to gain more traction in terms of supplying critical enabling technologies for developing defence programmes around the world, and this is where Pakistan should focus next.

Certainly I would say yes in the immediate future, but with US-Pak it is always wise to never say never.

Post 1965, Post 1971, Post 1979, Post 2001 we saw US-Pak interests realign and weapons supplies resume. You are right, nations now looking for more internal solutions, and personally I also think Chinese systems will out class US systems around 20 years from now, but never say never.....

 

[The Raven]

Certainly I would say yes in the immediate future, but with US-Pak it is always wise to never say never.

Post 1965, Post 1971, Post 1979, Post 2001 we saw US-Pak interests realign and weapons supplies resume. You are right, nations now looking for more internal solutions, and personally I also think Chinese systems will out class US systems around 20 years from now, but never say never.....

I agree, never say never, but there would have to be a monumental realigning of interests to ever see the day the F-35 flies in PAF colours.

 

[Yasser76]

I agree, never say never, but there would have to be a monumental realigning of interests to ever see the day the F-35 flies in PAF colours.

Agreed, Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and 9/11 were monumental events. It happens at times. Who knows what happens in the future. Pak v Iran, US can realign with China like in 70s, Muslim fundementalists take over Saudi, India can become anti-US. These things sound far fetched but we are living in crazy times....

 

[mshan44]

 

[denel]

IMO the facts don't necessarily point to that conclusion.

Be it the Reps or Dems, the US isn't going to change its tract on Pakistan.

Yes, the degree of harshness can vary between one administration or the other, but the general point is the same: cut Pakistan out.

India isn't going to play 100% ball on China if there's a strong Pakistan out and about. So, the US will either work to proactively stop sensitive transfer of arms to Pakistan, or not do anything to support it.

Obama had shown a willingness to transfer arms that could drive counter-insurgency (COIN) operations, but only specific types of weapons, and in limited quantities. So, the approval of 15 AH-1Z and 8 F-16 Block-52+ was totally tenable (and it happened under Obama), but I doubt we'd see them approve anything more substantial.

Trump was just a jerk. He was a jerk to Pakistan, to Canada, to Europe, to Asia and pretty much anyone else who could show him up. You'd literally have to be a bully-magnet to get on Trump's good side.

Moving forward, Pakistan isn't going to get a thing from either party in the US. Islamabad's best step forward is to limit its ties with Washington to 'professional matters' -- i.e., get 3rd-party ITAR transfers for core inputs like engines (CTS800, LM2500, etc), electronics, OBOGS, steel, etc. Don't do anything to actively upset them (unless you want to pick that fight), but don't do them any favours.

Based on my views, US has never been reliable partner to majority of countries outside NATU/JA/IA. Any solution going forward must have ITAR Free requirements as a compulsory mandate across any equipment or component with forceful push towards local suppliers and mandatory local manufacturing right down to subcontracting suppliers.

TiT has guaranteed that US cannot be counted on in any form.

 

[ziaulislam]

IMO the facts don't necessarily point to that conclusion.

Be it the Reps or Dems, the US isn't going to change its tract on Pakistan.

Yes, the degree of harshness can vary between one administration or the other, but the general point is the same: cut Pakistan out.

India isn't going to play 100% ball on China if there's a strong Pakistan out and about. So, the US will either work to proactively stop sensitive transfer of arms to Pakistan, or not do anything to support it.

Obama had shown a willingness to transfer arms that could drive counter-insurgency (COIN) operations, but only specific types of weapons, and in limited quantities. So, the approval of 15 AH-1Z and 8 F-16 Block-52+ was totally tenable (and it happened under Obama), but I doubt we'd see them approve anything more substantial.

Trump was just a jerk. He was a jerk to Pakistan, to Canada, to Europe, to Asia and pretty much anyone else who could show him up. You'd literally have to be a bully-magnet to get on Trump's good side.

Moving forward, Pakistan isn't going to get a thing from either party in the US. Islamabad's best step forward is to limit its ties with Washington to 'professional matters' -- i.e., get 3rd-party ITAR transfers for core inputs like engines (CTS800, LM2500, etc), electronics, OBOGS, steel, etc. Don't do anything to actively upset them (unless you want to pick that fight), but don't do them any favours.

What i hope is they do engage USA to get CSF funds through loan waivers ..Pakistan has over 40 billion dollars in loans to USA and its group

Musharraf got alot of debt written off and rest reschedule..
I hope IK achieves that..
Getting hard cash wont be easy given congress never really likes to pass funds

 

[Chak Bamu]

It simply because since the destruction of industries in 1970s and when sharifs came in 1985 we decided to work on dubai model(numerous times reiterate by sharifs/zardari) that is import import and import

Please leave economics & politics out of this discussion.

 

[araz]

Please leave economics & politics out of this discussion.

With all due respects to my brother, politics and economics are the two big elephants in the room when it comes to Pak US relations and hence the acquisition of F16s. If only the US did not make weapons of such quality!!!!!
A

 

[Scorpiooo]

Do any body have idea how much EDA upgraded to V standard will cost ?

Will this cost differ if buy used f16 from third party

 

[Tair-Lahoti]

Do any body have idea how much EDA upgraded to V standard will cost ?

Will this cost differ if buy used f16 from third party

An upgrade package to bring the existing 23 F-16 Block 50/52+ up to the very similar F-16V standard plus the related equipment for an estimated cost of $985.2 million.

Morocco – F-16 Block 52+ Upgrade to F-16V Configuration | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

It might help you to calculate

 

[Scorpiooo]

An upgrade package to bring the existing 23 F-16 Block 50/52+ up to the very similar F-16V standard plus the related equipment for an estimated cost of $985.2 million.

Morocco – F-16 Block 52+ Upgrade to F-16V Configuration | Defense Security Cooperation Agency

www.dsca.mil

It might help you to calculate

Thanks for sharing, IMO as i am not expert concersion for block 50/52 will be cheaper then old blocks
EDA or used 3rd party, will block 32 or 42 at max

 

[MastanKhan]

Based on my views, US has never been reliable partner to majority of countries outside NATU/JA/IA. Any solution going forward must have ITAR Free requirements as a compulsory mandate across any equipment or component with forceful push towards local suppliers and mandatory local manufacturing right down to subcontracting suppliers.

TiT has guaranteed that US cannot be counted on in any form.

@denel,

Pakistan never knew how to work the US to its advantage---. No pakistani general or leader tried to learn how to talk to the americans and what we see is the result of that.

After 9/11 US presented itself to pakistan on a PLATTER---and the pakistanis fckd up worst than bad---.

The second chance was Yemen war---. I never wrote openly---but most of you guys thought the intervention would for fighting---. Maybe some fighting to show your commitment---but more so of power positioning and let the saudi military take the brunt---and pak military stayed behind and provided more of a logistical / tactical support and presence and possibly act as a peace maker---while strengthening its military position at the expense of the GCC---.

The Yemen war crisis would have been a game changer for pakistan to build its strength economically and militarily---but many a minds only thought of killings---which could have been avoided to a large extent.

Form being in a position of a " POWER BROKER " pakistan is back to be in a state of eternal confusion---.

 

[denel]

@denel,

Pakistan never knew how to work the US to its advantage---. No pakistani general or leader tried to learn how to talk to the americans and what we see is the result of that.

After 9/11 US presented itself to pakistan on a patter---and the pakistanis fckd up worst than bad---.

The second chance was Yemen war---. I never wrote openly---but most of you guys thought the intervention would for fighting---. Maybe some fighting to show your commitment---but more so of power positioning and let the saudi military take the brunt---and pak military stayed behind and provided more of a logistical / tactical support and presence and possibly act as a peace maker---while strengthening its military position at the expense of the GCC---.

The Yemen war crisis would have been a game changer for pakistan to build its strength economically and militarily---but many a minds only thought of killings---which could have been avoided to a large extent.

Form being in a position of a " POWER BROKER " pakistan is back to be in a state of eternal confusion---.

I would second your thoughts. For the US, there was no strategic engagement - it was just what was consequential after effect.

I would continue to disagree with you in Yemen - Why do you want Pak forces to participate in genocide dictated by the manical Salman. That man has blood on his hands of the innocent. Sorry my friend, there is a line to draw and I am glad that Pak chose not to go in with these hyenas. True it affects financially; but I ask is the blood of innocent children and women this donkey Salman has taken justifiable. It is not.

Pak needs to take a stand and it did - by not supporting genocide against fellow moslems. That too by a family proclaiming itself as Custodian of Holy places.