Pakistan F-16 Discussions 2

[Scorpiooo]

things are not as bad as in the 90 as back then only OEM parts were available.

Yes agree, alot spares F16s will available in coming years for Nato countries moving to F35

 

[Yasser76]

as always it starts small but eventually, it becomes all-encompassing. having said that at this point there are no issues with spares or maintenance.
i think PAF has an inkling of this as well which can be seen with the level of PAF inventory, they can last a long time without external help.

I'm not so sure, does seem US is still enabling F-16 support contracts as recently as last week and last month

Contracts for October 27, 2021

Today's Defense Department contracts valued at $7.5 million or more are now live on Defense.gov.

www.defense.gov

Contracts for September 23, 2021

Today's Defense Department contracts valued at $7.5 million or more are now live on Defense.gov.

www.defense.gov

Also more Sniper pods on the way. I would think they will have to do the very minimum to support PAF F-16 fleet, especially consideirng air corridor agreements.US and Pak Mil are still engaging with each other too.

Also helps PAF that Turks have a 230 plus F-16 fleet. Spares can easily have a way of finding themselves to Pakistan and this is not the military or diplomatic leverage it once was consideiring JF-17, HQ-9 and possibly J-10 on the way.

It's clear PAF has no interest in obtaining major equipment direct from US but game for surplus F-16s via third parties is certainly on.

Turkish can be used , in case of spares parts limitations by American

Lots of countries can help out Pak with a few spares if we need favours.

Turks, Jordanians, Indonesians, Iraqis we have good relationship with, at a push even maybe UAE, Morrocco, Egypt

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

The issue with the PAF's F-16s aren't spare parts, but aircraft age. Our A/B airframes are reaching the end of their OEM-specified lifecycles, and there's no additional SLEP available for those specific aircraft. However, there's a 6,000 hour SLEP available for F-16C/Ds, so our Block-52+ can kick around for a while. Likewise, if the PAF can get used F-16C/Ds, they can apply the SLEP to those and keep them in the air for 15-20 years. Ideally, it could also apply an F-16V-type upgrade to around 54-72 F-16C/Ds (18 PAF birds plus 36-54 used C/Ds).

Unfortunately, Pakistan is in the darkest timeline in that the US isn't going to let a single one of these used or surplus airframes go to the PAF. Basically, think of the "easy, sensible solution" (like buying and upgrading used F-16s or C-130s), and now accept, "not going to happen." We're in that situation. Uncle Sam has gone desi uncle on us @JamD

If this predicament continues, then in time, the PAF's F-16C/Ds will be the only F-16s in service. By the 2040s, I'm sure the F-16A/Bs will be gone, especially if an NGFA comes online (e.g., the TFX, which Turkey is developing to replace the F-16). Tbh by that point, I'd just allocate all of the C/Ds to an elite DACT unit. The way the PAF is moving, unless an F-16V-type upgrade is available to us, the F-16s will be stone-walled from our next-gen interoperability stack, munitions stack, etc.

 

[Scorpiooo]

The issue with the PAF's F-16s aren't spare parts, but aircraft age. Our A/B airframes are reaching the end of their OEM-specified lifecycles, and there's no additional SLEP available for those specific aircraft. However, there's a 6,000 hour SLEP available for F-16C/Ds, so our Block-52+ can kick around for a while. Likewise, if the PAF can get used F-16C/Ds, they can apply the SLEP to those and keep them in the air for 15-20 years. Ideally, it could also apply an F-16V-type upgrade to around 54-72 F-16C/Ds (18 PAF birds plus 36-54 used C/Ds).

Unfortunately, Pakistan is in the darkest timeline in that the US isn't going to let a single one of these used or surplus airframes go to the PAF. Basically, think of the "easy, sensible solution" (like buying and upgrading used F-16s or C-130s), and now accept, "not going to happen." We're in that situation. Uncle Sam has gone desi uncle on us @JamD

If this predicament continues, then in time, the PAF's F-16C/Ds will be the only F-16s in service. By the 2040s, I'm sure the F-16A/Bs will be gone, especially if an NGFA comes online (e.g., the TFX, which Turkey is developing to replace the F-16). Tbh by that point, I'd just allocate all of the C/Ds to an elite DACT unit. The way the PAF is moving, unless an F-16V-type upgrade is available to us, the F-16s will be stone-walled from our next-gen interoperability stack, munitions stack, etc.

How much life left in PAF 16 A/B ?

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

How much life left in PAF 16 A/B ?

They can go up to 8,000 hours. I don't know how much is left. But I don't think we'll see them in 2040. IMO, the TFX or J-21/XY will replace them by then.

 

[Scorpiooo]

They can go up to 8,000 hours. I don't know how much is left. But I don't think we'll see them in 2040. IMO, the TFX or J-21/XY will replace them by then.

So there max will be around 2030s ,

V standard can't be applied on them ? To increase life 12000 hrs

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

So there max will be around 2030s ,

V standard can't be applied on them ? To increase life 12000 hrs

I think Taiwan was looking into it for their A/Bs, but it doesn't seem they're moving towards it. In all likelihood, they'll probably replace their old F-16 fleet with new F-16s and pursue the F-35 and/or develop their own next-gen fighter instead.

 

[araz]

They can go up to 8,000 hours. I don't know how much is left. But I don't think we'll see them in 2040. IMO, the TFX or J-21/XY will replace them by then.

We do have the OCUs which when bought had very little time on the air frames so they can soldier on. However I fully agree that the original 32 plus the 13 from Jordan will be gone in the not so distant future. Ifully agree that US Pak relationship is currently not conducive to PAF getting any more airframes. However support and spares will continue. Ialso see your point regarding getting C&Ds. However if the US is not playing ball then this discussion also remains academic. There was talk in the 2008 period of US agreeing to part with some 40/42 and
30/32. PAF did not want them and concentrated on picking up the A&Bs from Jordan.
A

 

[Yasser76]

The issue with the PAF's F-16s aren't spare parts, but aircraft age. Our A/B airframes are reaching the end of their OEM-specified lifecycles, and there's no additional SLEP available for those specific aircraft. However, there's a 6,000 hour SLEP available for F-16C/Ds, so our Block-52+ can kick around for a while. Likewise, if the PAF can get used F-16C/Ds, they can apply the SLEP to those and keep them in the air for 15-20 years. Ideally, it could also apply an F-16V-type upgrade to around 54-72 F-16C/Ds (18 PAF birds plus 36-54 used C/Ds).

Unfortunately, Pakistan is in the darkest timeline in that the US isn't going to let a single one of these used or surplus airframes go to the PAF. Basically, think of the "easy, sensible solution" (like buying and upgrading used F-16s or C-130s), and now accept, "not going to happen." We're in that situation. Uncle Sam has gone desi uncle on us @JamD

If this predicament continues, then in time, the PAF's F-16C/Ds will be the only F-16s in service. By the 2040s, I'm sure the F-16A/Bs will be gone, especially if an NGFA comes online (e.g., the TFX, which Turkey is developing to replace the F-16). Tbh by that point, I'd just allocate all of the C/Ds to an elite DACT unit. The way the PAF is moving, unless an F-16V-type upgrade is available to us, the F-16s will be stone-walled from our next-gen interoperability stack, munitions stack, etc.

Nice post mate.

Personally I am unsure if the US will totally give up any leverage over Pak Mil by doing this.

As we know Sea Sultans will fully replace P-3Cs
AH-1s are on the way out via Chinese/Turkish/Russian solution
F-16s then gone in 10-15 years.


So for for the first time in around 60 years that leaves Pakistan with no major US military platforms. This in itself is not a bad thing, as we all know their kit comes with strings and China will easily have caught up or surpassed much of the US tech by 2030-2040.

I just am unsure if the US really wants that situation Could be wrong here of course.

 

[Bilal Khan (Quwa)]

Nice post mate.

Personally I am unsure if the US will totally give up any leverage over Pak Mil by doing this.

As we know Sea Sultans will fully replace P-3Cs
AH-1s are on the way out via Chinese/Turkish/Russian solution
F-16s then gone in 10-15 years.


So for for the first time in around 60 years that leaves Pakistan with no major US military platforms. This in itself is not a bad thing, as we all know their kit comes with strings and China will easily have caught up or surpassed much of the US tech by 2030-2040.

I just am unsure if the US really wants that situation Could be wrong here of course.

Bro the issue is that the US is exerting leverage in other ways, like our economy. Some segments of our economy rely on exporting to the US (it's one of the few places where we have a trade surplus, for example). Likewise, the US is cornering us in institutions like FATF, which impacts our ability to trade and attract investment.

Our fault is that we aren't doing enough to break out of this dependence, economically speaking. Imagine we sold cars, and our top export market was Central Asia. Now, we have serious leverage of our own and the US will acknowledge it. Suddenly, FATF won't matter (to us or the US) and the defence items will flow.

 

[Raider 21]

A split-S to full stop landing in the Viper. Not a Pakistani F-16, yet spectacular to watch

 

[Signalian]

F16 is not going to out of pictures easily for PAF

100 seems a far fetched number considering US-Pak relations currently.

 

[Falcon26]

Bro the issue is that the US is exerting leverage in other ways, like our economy. Some segments of our economy rely on exporting to the US (it's one of the few places where we have a trade surplus, for example). Likewise, the US is cornering us in institutions like FATF, which impacts our ability to trade and attract investment.

Our fault is that we aren't doing enough to break out of this dependence, economically speaking. Imagine we sold cars, and our top export market was Central Asia. Now, we have serious leverage of our own and the US will acknowledge it. Suddenly, FATF won't matter (to us or the US) and the defence items will flow.

Don’t forget Pakistan has never seriously explored African and South American markets. Its exports are oriented towards North America and the UK. It’s a dead-end mindset. Pakistan has been cursed with the most lethargic and corrupt planners. Absolutely no creatively or foresight.

 

[Shabi1]

The issue with the PAF's F-16s aren't spare parts, but aircraft age. Our A/B airframes are reaching the end of their OEM-specified lifecycles, and there's no additional SLEP available for those specific aircraft. However, there's a 6,000 hour SLEP available for F-16C/Ds, so our Block-52+ can kick around for a while. Likewise, if the PAF can get used F-16C/Ds, they can apply the SLEP to those and keep them in the air for 15-20 years. Ideally, it could also apply an F-16V-type upgrade to around 54-72 F-16C/Ds (18 PAF birds plus 36-54 used C/Ds).

Unfortunately, Pakistan is in the darkest timeline in that the US isn't going to let a single one of these used or surplus airframes go to the PAF. Basically, think of the "easy, sensible solution" (like buying and upgrading used F-16s or C-130s), and now accept, "not going to happen." We're in that situation. Uncle Sam has gone desi uncle on us @JamD

If this predicament continues, then in time, the PAF's F-16C/Ds will be the only F-16s in service. By the 2040s, I'm sure the F-16A/Bs will be gone, especially if an NGFA comes online (e.g., the TFX, which Turkey is developing to replace the F-16). Tbh by that point, I'd just allocate all of the C/Ds to an elite DACT unit. The way the PAF is moving, unless an F-16V-type upgrade is available to us, the F-16s will be stone-walled from our next-gen interoperability stack, munitions stack, etc.

Agreed, without upgrades and access to newer AAM variants the AM/BMs would be at a disadvantage in AA combat soon. So no longer the tip of the spear and work horse of PAF. However I do see a possibility of PAF attempting doing its own overhauls and third party mods once OEM gives up on them to eventually keep them flying longer like we did with the Mirage in a limited role. We've been operating them over three decades now so there should be considerable local engineering know how built up for these platforms.

 

[The Eagle]

The issue with the PAF's F-16s aren't spare parts, but aircraft age. Our A/B airframes are reaching the end of their OEM-specified lifecycles, and there's no additional SLEP available for those specific aircraft. However, there's a 6,000 hour SLEP available for F-16C/Ds, so our Block-52+ can kick around for a while. Likewise, if the PAF can get used F-16C/Ds, they can apply the SLEP to those and keep them in the air for 15-20 years. Ideally, it could also apply an F-16V-type upgrade to around 54-72 F-16C/Ds (18 PAF birds plus 36-54 used C/Ds).

Unfortunately, Pakistan is in the darkest timeline in that the US isn't going to let a single one of these used or surplus airframes go to the PAF. Basically, think of the "easy, sensible solution" (like buying and upgrading used F-16s or C-130s), and now accept, "not going to happen." We're in that situation. Uncle Sam has gone desi uncle on us @JamD

If this predicament continues, then in time, the PAF's F-16C/Ds will be the only F-16s in service. By the 2040s, I'm sure the F-16A/Bs will be gone, especially if an NGFA comes online (e.g., the TFX, which Turkey is developing to replace the F-16). Tbh by that point, I'd just allocate all of the C/Ds to an elite DACT unit. The way the PAF is moving, unless an F-16V-type upgrade is available to us, the F-16s will be stone-walled from our next-gen interoperability stack, munitions stack, etc.

The moot point was when I told them that It has to be us targeting ISIS terrorists dens & hideouts so that the world can remain at rest. EU supports the idea but they have their own grudge fights - UK le France and others joining with little bit of confusion but surely. Let see if 80's are repeating for us in the name of Afghanistan terrorist targeting. This time, Vs' or an upgrade is not limited to ground attack only. The dish was into making last time I checked but may turn into coal if not put out on time.