Pakistan Airforce Procurement plans after 2001- Myths and Realities

[SQ8]

Did the PAF really evaluate the MiG-29 and Su-27 ??

The Typhoon is a logistical and political nightmare with four supplier countries.

Yup,

In the 90's.

 

[Spectre]

Yup,

In the 90's.

Yeltsin's Russia often resembled a yard sale. China owes a lot to it.

 

[Signalian]

Yet, there is no proof not anything beyond piecemeal statements given by civilian officials called in general are ignorant of military matters in Pakistan of any concrete development in procuring a new platform. As for now, the Pakistan air force is set on ensuring that by 2020 It will have a fleet that comprises of 80-90 F-16, 150 JF-17, 60 F-7PG and 36-48 Upgraded Mirage variants. It has decided to focus its resources on the development and procurement of a fifth-generation fighter which it intends to conduct by 2025.

There are easily 150 F-16's A/B out there which can be procured by PAF if finances allow. I hope the 150 JF-17 number is reached by 2020. This means 84 aircrafts in 4 years.

 

[CHI RULES]

I will request you provide a more detailed analysis of Type-99 vs top tier IA's tanks. I stand by my comment. Of course infantry equipment is cheaper than airforce and even artillery is cheaper than most of the air defence systems. But the number of systems for airforce is much smaller too. So the total sum spent is equivalent.
Another myth, west does not want to provide A/C to PAF is not true either. Even USA is willing to sell you F-16 but not at the reduced price and I think Rafale was available and may still be available if PAF wants..just check OP and post by @MastanKhan.
J-10 C/D is not 4.5 gen ...it just compares with F-16 ( latest blocks of the latter)
PAF is still not willing to go for Su-35 despite the fact they are happy in flying F-7pg (Mig-21 China version) till 2022, but Su-35 does not measure up to their "standards"...They may very well go for EFT if they get money. And I will be happy even if they go for EFT.

The current situation shows that USA shall not offer F16 V to PAF meanwhile F16 block 50+ can't be considered latest or hi tech. USA has signed a defense pact with India so in near future perhaps even block 50+ F16s may not be available to PAF. Many Eu countries like Germany and Sweden may not directly involve in any deal with Pak due to their laws regarding Nuclear Arms. Pak can't get any latest model of Gripen if desired. Similarly French after their Rafael deal with India will/shall not provide any latest tech to PAF, PAF officials considering option of Mirage2005-9 should keep this in mind.

On the other hand USA offered F16s without subsidies just to bar Pak to purchase these jets by simply making them out of range.

J10c/d are considered 4.5th gen fighter as having AESA radar,IRST and other next gen features with some stealth. Meanwhile F16 block50-52 can't be considered 4.5th gen.

EU fighter is much better than Su35 but we can't afford latest trench so we may go for Trench 1 jets going to be retired by member countries relatively cheaper, however we still have to invest in them for latest Radars and to provide true A to G capabilities as this capability was missing fully or partially from Trench 1 jets. The SU35 may be having draw backs like expensive handling/overhaul requirements yet still in bracket as if inducted shall be in limited numbers to replace Mirage-III/V in bomber role.

 

[Lucky Breeze]

Hi,

With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.

We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.

And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.

Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.

So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.

Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.

Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.

Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.

That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.

So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.

The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.

Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.

Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.

J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.

And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.

Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.

With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.

Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

I would like to trust and believe this idea of Political Party called PPP ate all the funding. But to my knowledge every year Pakistani budget has a seperate budget for Military.

So Civilian projects impacting the purchase of new planes is not concrete.

When we had Musharraf in charge , we got things done

During Musharaf's term

• We got the AWACs (4 Saab, 4 Chinese) (Delivered 100% success)
  
• We got juicy deal for J10B 40 planes (Top of the line) (STALLED : Imaginary Stealth)
  
• We concluded the F16 C/D deal MLU (Delivered 100% success)
  
• Not 100% but we did get SPADA Air defence also in his term (Delivered 100% success)
  
• JF17 thunder made progress towards completion (Delivered 100% success)
  
• 4 F22P frigate purchased for Navy (Delivered 100% success)
  
• OHP Delivered (Delivered 100% success)
  
• P3 Orion (Delivered 100% success)

Right around 2008 his (Musharaf's) government was toppled when he announced purchase of 40 J10B. Right after , USA started to throw around their influence over Pakistan Military Establishment and Air froce. Throwing around the ideas of F16 C/D availability.

I recall we had this "Bone throwing event"

During the event US gave us this idea that F16 supply would not be an issue
Cheif sahib was very happy !!!! F16 wohooo .....

• Now during this time , the Air Chief was , invited to US for meetings and various ceremonies to demonstrate the capabilities of F16 C/D and really show how eager US was to help upgrade our Air-force.
• Was stealth promised during these meeting or may be easy access to 40-50 F16 C/D
  
• It is also an unfortunate mention, that under the same gentleman we had the Navy Base accident where P3 Orions got destroyed

The US courtship of Pakistan Air-force really started around same time we made deal for J10B
, and as soon as we backed out of the J10B deal - our own F16 deals starts to get cancelled or delays.

We were presented with ridiculous delivery timelines of 1-2 planes every 2-3 years

Between 2009-2010, we started having doubt in purchasing the J10B becasue , we were looking for the STEALTH platform

Why did we started to day dream about Stealth platform . I wanted to ask our Management were they promised something , written on paper , that they went forward and cancelled the J10B deal

June 10th 2010

Of course at this stage the F16 Fan boys, were on high rightfully it is a widely used platform world wide and excellent plane, and once again , we let our National Defence be dependent on a Weapon's provider who is not dependable

J10B as generally criticized that it , is a decent platform but won't add more to our capability. Meanwhile the same group started to but crappy Jordanian F16 A/B version just to save face.

It was a DONE DEAL 35-40 Planes delivery 2014 (December). Delivery was planned between 2013-2014. No delayed tactics, normal time frame delivery.

Our Air-force head was busy with chasing shadows , F16 shadows & Stealth ! On a funny note you can view his chase ironic being a pilot on an old plane he could not detect stealth on his radar.

After getting the odd 18 F-16 C/D, planes many PAF officials felt perhaps our relation with US has normalized that we can replenish our Air-force, like in 1980's. US on their own part try to delay the deliveries "Intentionally" just so that India keeps upgrading its Air-force during the 10 year period.

Around 2013-2013 , our Nawaz went to Obama , to try to get deal done for something to save face

Obama stated well no problem we will give you 8 F16 permission
and in the end we got a unfavorable deal, an unworkable situation

On the other hand, J10B , continued to evolve between 2010-2014, infact it became a backbone of Chinese Airforce

Deal staled for planes which were to be delivered in 2014 (36-42 planes)

Once we realized that we have been snubbed for future F16 C/D orders , and we now had no J10B deal , we shot our selves in foot again. In order to save face, we proceeded to get second hand plane.

We got a order done with F16 A/B , a plane that requires an upgrade, it barely made some
number addition to force did not made any technological difference in term of Technology

Buying scrap junk planes just to make up numbers and saving face

Block A/B is quite an out dated plane

1990: Pressler Amendment Sanctions.

• Effects lasted for 10 Years

Undeclared Sanctions: 2008-Present

• The strategy used in the undeclared sanctions included , promise of easy access to future F16 C/D access.

• The existing order of 18 F16 C/D was pain strikingly slow. Which hindered natural growth of our Airforce above 100-150 F16.

• While we can't park our F16 , in special bunkers, India is allowed to discuss engine technology and even assemble the plane

Example :

• Saudis , ordered 72 planes in 2007 and now they have all these planes running in their air-force. Now they are looking for extension to this large order.
• Egypt bought from Russia/USA freely when it needed planes
• Turkey also developed a potent force

This talk of stealth , wealth is not happening we can't even effectively retire our 1973 fleet of Mirage

How many J10 planes China Operates ? 240+

A responsible thing should be as follow, to admit, "We made an Error, and we need to get the J10B inducted , next few years". They continue to chase "STEALTH" , which is as difficult to attain as the Unicorn creature.

I protested , however after reluctance I started to support the F16 C/D arrival but in end it proved to be a bad decision. It would have been a fruitful decision had we inducted 150 Block C/D planes (which we did not).

When you review this decision from any angle , turning down state of Art J10B plane is not a great decision. Becasue we don't have any options for Stealth


This "Day Dreaming" or mistake happened becasue head of Airforce , went in by themselves to USA and met folks independently. They trusted too much what was being said , with no substance or written contract of assurance.

Reality Check

• Today that Air Cheif is gone, after the attack on Airbase ( So are any verbal agreements)
  
• J10B deal is stalled
• There is no sign of any more F16 C/D, unless someone retires it
  
• Mirage are still chugging along in our Airforce

Americans , may give you many promises. However, unless it is a contractually binding they don't care about these after 2 weeks. And this is what happened with Air Cheif, he thought he has open access to F16 C/D every year. However , in reality nothing was available.

Here we are 2016, full 8 years later !!! Almost a decade wow , and still Mirages are flying

 

[Falcon26]

A lot of missed of opportunities, some man made and others consequences of bad leadership. Pakistan is lucky to have an under-performing and mostly dysfunctional country like India as its premier enemy. Else of a lot of its weaknesses would have been exposed long time ago with destructive consequences.

 

[volatile]

Hi
Real question is who to blame ,Once a wise man said

All decisions are Right and its unfair to criticize it after so many years. I have my logic you learn from your bad decisions and you moved on .

1. What we learn from 65/71 US sanctions ? US not reliable partner and she will act (Very rightly) only to her interest
2. What did we learn from 1990`s Pressler amendments ? US has capped our Tier1 force and we are not needed any more US not a reliable partner
3. What did we learn from post 2006 F16 saga ? We are unable to learn any thing from the past and we will continue to remain miserable for the rest of our lives

In our corporate world few things are said for blunders like this

1. Capacity to understand business/Foreign policies / Capability to derive thru decision making process .
2. Biasness (Corruption)

No one can deny Air force is back bone of all armed forces infact recent operations are evident to them .
"HE WHO CONTROLS THE SKIES CONTROLS THE WAR"

In today's world Economics and Defence are interlinked tightly . We as nation lacks quality man power (when i say this i can say this after working with many professional around me .
In my view all things pointed out towards capacity to understand issue is hurting us or one can say wrong people are making wrong decisions .F16 is world class but whats the point if it cant fly . Kill switches is one theory (you can argue all day long but its a fact) . F16 spares are another issue (Oh yeah we stock up enough) but what happened if that storage area got hit during time of crises ? .

I can bet if tomorrow LM offers F35 we will again jumping down and up ,Alas this is not a behaviour of sovereign nations .Pakistan is we and we are Pakistan .We have to fix it and these discussions are very important .

 

[_NOBODY_]

I wanted to ask that what is the maximum number of fighter platforms PAF can afford? Right now 4 platforms are being used and two of them will be replaced in the future(F-7 and Mirage) so this leaves two empty slots and one of them is for 5th generation fighter.

@MastanKhan Sir if we purchase JH-7 then would PAF be able to afford another platform(a lethal 4++ generation air superiority fighter).

What do you gentlemen think?
@Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @Oscar @The Eagle

 

[Centurion2016]

F7PG and around 50+ better less fatigued mirages will remain PAF until 2025

No way is PAF replacing all 250 F7/MIRAGES before next 10 years.

 

[Stephen Cohen]

F7PG and around 50+ better less fatigued mirages will remain PAF until 2025

No way is PAF replacing all 250 F7/MIRAGES before next 10 years.

190 planes have to be replaced

http://www.dawn.com/news/1245714

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

PS : Is it wise to put mileage of 12,000 km x 2 , (2 way trip) on the F16 ?

How many F16 went to these exercises ?

2?
4?
6?
8?

24,000 KM mileage just for training ?

Our Enemy is 50-100 km raneg and why are we wasting Mileage 24,000 KM on planes ?
Shocking

Should we be putting excessive mileage on these planes ?

Few more of these Red flags and our F16 fleet would be need of another MLU?

Side main park ho jaigi F16 fleet

 

[MastanKhan]

I wanted to ask that what is the maximum number of fighter platforms PAF can afford? Right now 4 platforms are being used and two of them will be replaced in the future(F-7 and Mirage) so this leaves two empty slots and one of them is for 5th generation fighter.

@MastanKhan Sir if we purchase JH-7 then would PAF be able to afford another platform(a lethal 4++ generation air superiority fighter).

What do you gentlemen think?
@Quwa @Bilal Khan 777 @Oscar @The Eagle

Hi,

Well---that is what they will have to---because they did not build up the numbers over time.

 

[wiseone2]

Yup,

• We got juicy deal for J10B 40 planes (Top of the line) (STALLED : Imaginary Stealth)
  

Right around 2008 his (Musharaf's) government was toppled when he announced purchase of 40 J10B. Right after , USA started to throw around their influence over Pakistan Military Establishment and Air froce. Throwing around the ideas of F16 C/D availability.

The US courtship of Pakistan Air-force really started around same time we made deal for J10B
, and as soon as we backed out of the J10B deal - our own F16 deals starts to get cancelled or delays.

• Today that Air Cheif is gone, after the attack on Airbase ( So are any verbal agreements)
  
• J10B deal is stalled
• There is no sign of any more F16 C/D, unless someone retires it
  
• Mirage are still chugging along in our Airforce

there is no independent evaluation of the j-10.
there is no proof china has offered the j-10 to anyone.

 

[Sucha Kuggu]

Pakistan should maintain a balance b/w two polls. Do not put all eggs in one basket. JF-17 looks good in areal performance. I think making JF-17 vertical tail fin bit bigger will make it more numerable.