Pakistan Airforce Procurement plans after 2001- Myths and Realities

[war&peace]

Hi,

My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.

And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.

If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.

I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.

It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.

The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.

They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.

And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.

It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.

The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.

Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.

The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.

Hi,

As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.

IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafale was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (loss of almost half of the country in terms of population) and during huge economic crisis.

Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest

I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my job is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see a bigger picture, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.

 

[volatile]

It was in Russia's interest too to stop the sales of AL 31 and J 10

At the moment J10 is not competing with MIG 29 and Pakistan was never gonna buy MIG 29 some how your comments doesnt add up

Because it is similar to F 16

J10 is different class then F16 ,Don't want to go into this J10 is a next step in evolution than F16

IF Russia had allowed AL 31 sales then its Mig 29 sales would have suffered

Even today Mig 29 is being bought for example Egypt

AL 31 costs some 3 Million dollar a unit but Mig 29 can be sold for 45 million

I cant see the correlation with this analogy ,Egyptian are buying all sort of platforms they have F16`s as well as Migs both are meant as direct competitor to each other ,they have Rafales and Mirages ,So some how Russian alone decision for AL31 doesnt fits the bill ,RD93 series engine being used in Mig29 is a direct competitor to Migs its sales are not stopped ,problem lies in my opinion is based on willingness for any party .

Secondly though you may Not like to believe it but IAF
has Many more Mig 29s and Mirage 2000
than what the official and declared figures reveal

That is why we are going so slow on Rafale

I believe you as every Country has more in hiding`
and not publically showed but recent deals for upgradation of Mirages are public clearly mention numbers to be upgraded and cost .

That is why we are going so slow on Rafale

Rafale deal negotiations are either a master stroke or biggest blunder ,Reason for go slow is either no funds or US carrot other than this India already has too many fighters and poors

 

[ghazi768]

We will still be operating F-7PG's in 2020? I though air force had plans to retire them. And does that mean we may see a 5th Gen. development program in Pakistan like the JF-17 program?

yes

 

[RIP Pak LAW]

Even Army was involved in the corruption during 2008-13 period. E.g Rtd Gen. Kiyani brother. Further, Gen. Kiyani had cordial links with Zardari as per many sources that's why he got the extension.

 

[zebra7]

IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafael was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (almost half of the country in terms of population) and huge economic problems.

Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest

I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see other stuff, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.

Good post, could you please correct the Rafale instead of Rafael.

 

[war&peace]

Good post, could you please correct the Rafale instead of Rafael.

Ok thanks..corrected.

 

[SQ8]

Suppose China sells J 10 fitted with AL 31 to Pakistan

OTHER countries will also demand it like Egypt ; Iran ; Myanmar

All Mig 29 operators would like to have a LOOK at J 10

Then the sales of MIG 29 which is nearly equal to J 10 will suffer

A single engined JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

But a AL 31 fitted J 10 is a threat to Mig 29

Russia allowed the sale of RD 93 because JF 17 is not a threat to Mig 29

SO it was also in Russia's interest to block the RE sale of AL 31

China needed J 10 for its own security ; SO Russia sold AL 31 to it

But the re sale of AL 31 ie J 10 by China would Hurt Russia

This thread is not about supposes and possibilities. It is the scenario for what happened.
Also, I do not find your logic convincing and cannot agree.

 

[MastanKhan]

IMHO, the weapons deals, any deals for that matter, have three components (1) Technical aspects (2) financial constraints (3) negotiating skills
I think PAF does a great job with first two components but perhaps it lacks in the negotiation department and manoeuvring. As you pointed and also OP mentioned that Rafale was offered at higher price than M2K and since PAF knew the geopolitical situation surrounding Pakistan, they should have brain-stormed and come up with a new acquisition plan for Rafaels with a lower number if they couldn't get the higher budget from the govt after all Rafael is more advanced and modern platform than M2k with a longer life and more upgradeability options. The numbers could be reached later when budget became available.
As far as quoting a yahudan is concerned it is often said that "the wisdom is the lost treasure for a believer, he takes wherever he finds it" in other words we can learn from anyone if we believe in Islam. Nations have to sacrifice and improvise and Pakistan has done it in the past. ZAB's statement that "we will eat grass for a thousand years but will make the atom-bomb" may appear illogical and statement of a zealot to his critics and opponents ( I always disregard them as useless cynics) Pakistan got the nuclear bomb against all odds...the momentum he provided right from the start was enough to carry it through the decades even after his death though I acknowledge the contribution of others through the years but if it was not for his emotional dedication ..it won't have started in the first place and to remind some of us, it was started shortly after the fall of Dhaka (loss of almost half of the country in terms of population) and during huge economic crisis.

Even from my personal life, the bold decisions taken in the time of economic stress have paid very favourably in the longer run despite the opposition of some of the family members and friends...those were calculated risks and finally paid with interest

I'm not saying PAF is incompetent or there were some traitors but I think some of the decision making should be done externally and purchasing the next airplane is one of them...external auditors are basically employed for that purpose. I will narrate my supervisor (Prof) during post graduate research work, "I know you (i.e. me) are doing a great job but my job is to provide you the perspective of a learned person standing outside of your room and able to see a bigger picture, some times in research we get so zoomed in that we loose sight of our surroundings especially the agents affecting our work". Of course they should be consulted but the final decision and selection should be made by some other competent authority.

Hi,

A new item that popped up during that time was strategic power positioning and frocefully enticing a seller to your corner by promising him a larger reward.

So---the same judgement in error was committed which led to the original sanctions on the F16's---that was---not accepting what was audible---visually clear and visible to the audience but not to the Paf heirarchy---ie the coming of sanctions.

Similar blunders got committed after 9/11---. What they say is " Proof is in the Pudding " and as we see the results---we can well understand---that the Paf had no comprehension and understanding of what the opponent was doing to sabotage the sale.

They were given an opportunity put on a golden platter in the form of the Rafale---basically---the French gifted them with the opportunity---and the French in a manner literally begged Paf to buy those aircraft---because of fear of losing the production line---thus losing on a generation of aeronautical engineers.

In this case---the mentality of the buyer showed that HE was extremely focused on what he wanted to buy---and did not take into consideration the " other " factors---a classic case of a gunfighter locked onto his target

 

[salarsikander]

Hi,

My colleague---Oscar has written up story on behalf of the Paf for the failure of the Paf and it is well appreciated.

And you @war&peace has written an account of Golda Meir that I should have posted years ago on this forum---because who has given more example than me on this board of how the israelis have accumulated weapons and what price they had to pay to get those weapons during their periods of duress and hardships over the years---shame on me.

If a Yehudan can follow the practices of Prophet Muhammad in weapons procurement---then what stopped the paf heirarchy for doing so---.

I go back to my claim of TRAITORS in high places of the Paf---who were only looking for ways to fill their pockets and offensive capabilities were of no concern.

It also shows that the air force is not able and mentally capable to make timely decisions when it came to getting the right aircraft in times of duress.

The post also shows that the Paf has no concept of time---they had shown no urgency---they did not have an overall bird's eye view of the bigger picture---they had no clue of the time constraints that they had or they will have---.

They also did not understand and could not comprehend that their new found alliance was having a negative effect on the neighbor---and the neighbor had a started a very forceful and strong campaign against pakistan.

And that lack of understanding comes from being TOTALLY ARROGANT---which clearly shows in their posture---.

It also shows that there was no devil's advocate to guide them---that there was no one in position of strength to talk to them---it was basically all yessir yessir yessir---.

The article also shows that the Paf was focussed on the JF17---and they were also focussed on french EW suite for the aircraft---but they had no clue how to seal the deal---how to get the French in their grips---because the mmrca tender was already open and the French had placed the Mirage 2k in that.

Paf could have easily snagged the Rafale---and instead of 40---or 36---they could have gone for 24---28 or 30----.

The article clearly shows that the Paf had no comprenhnsion of the ever changing scenario----and that is a shame.

Hi,

As for the availability of the J10's from china----since the SCS has heated up ln 2013-14 and more so now---and china sees itself cornered---every weapons system is available to pakistan---because any threat to pakistan is a more serious threat to china at this time---.

Khan Sahib,

Extremely happy to see you that you are back in your own style. Informative, detailed and smooth. Just like a poem or mechanical flawless engineering, though that is not quite possible.

On-Topic, Janab had we gone for, say, french rafaels would that not kill our program of '17 or would it have actually pumped new life into it. Please do explain in detail with your usual manners of adding a 'phrase'' in the post if possible

 

[war&peace]

Hi,

A new item that popped up during that time was strategic power positioning and frocefully enticing a seller to your corner by promising him a larger reward.

So---the same judgement in error was committed which led to the original sanctions on the F16's---that was---not accepting what was audible---visually clear and visible to the audience but not to the Paf heirarchy---ie the coming of sanctions.

Similar blunders got committed after 9/11---. What they say is " Proof is in the Pudding " and as we see the results---we can well understand---that the Paf had no comprehension and understanding of what the opponent was doing to sabotage the sale.

They were given an opportunity put on a golden platter in the form of the Rafale---basically---the French gifted them with the opportunity---and the French in a manner literally begged Paf to buy those aircraft---because of fear of losing the production line---thus losing on a generation of aeronautical engineers.

In this case---the mentality of the buyer showed that HE was extremely focused on what he wanted to buy---and did not take into consideration the " other " factors---a classic case of a gunfighter locked onto his target

Hey sir,
The failure of PAF's leadership to see the sanction coming is almost criminal because they repeated it multiple times and I'm pretty sure they haven't learned any lesson. If it repeats they will do the same. One fact is that they are still in trance over F16s, the bird has been offered to India by uncle sam, the whole production line.
I wish they don't repeat the mistakes. The one guy who selected great fighters for PAF, MM Alam, somehow fell through the favours of PAF leadership so despite selecting two of the best platform Mirages and F-16s for PAF. He might have seen the sanctions coming but .....

 

[MastanKhan]

Is their any verifiable source that predicts the comparison of MIG 29 SU30 J-10 and JF-17 in term of combat proven fighters.

Hi,

First of all---every fighter aircraft is ' combat proven ' till it gets into actual combat.

It is just like the Gripen---not much by itself---but when working in tandem with all the complimentary and support package---it becomes a nasty little fighter aircraft---it is all about the EW suite.

That is what I have stated---Paf had no comprehension about the importance of the package---that it will make a day and night difference in what they will have---that is why---they did not pursue it with their heart and soul and a deathly commitment.

They were extremely casual and lackadaisical in their approach towards the french package---their belief that as they had dealt with the French in the past without problems---they would do so in the future as well---.

To be a better analyst---put yourself in enemy's shoes and analyze---the SU30 are your's and so is the Mig29---. The enemy has JF17's and J10's---now plz tell us what you thinking is.

Khan Sahib,

Extremely happy to see you that you are back in your own style. Informative, detailed and smooth. Just like a poem or mechanical flawless engineering, though that is not quite possible.

On-Topic, Janab had we gone for, say, french rafaels would that not kill our program of '17 or would it have actually pumped new life into it. Please do explain in detail with your usual manners of adding a 'phrase'' in the post if possible

Hi,

With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.

We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.

And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.

Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.

So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.

Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.

Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.

Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.

That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.

So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.

The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.

Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.

Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.

J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.

And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.

Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.

With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.

Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

 

[war&peace]

With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.

Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

Now just compare PAF's attitude with PA in regard to the acquisition of new system. PA already has a great tank AK but now it is acquiring Haider MBT which will be Type-99 that will give them a technological edge over IA's Arjun and T-90M.

 

[volatile]

Hi,

With the procurement of the Rafale---paf would have solidified the EW suite deal on the JF17's---.

We all know---that in our personal lives---we all have to sacrifice something to get to something better---.

And we all know that we give to receive---and sometimes we have to give more---to receive more---.

Posters don't understand---that the french fighter aircraft industry was coming to a shutdown if there were no orders for the Rafale---. The shut down meant---that the French would be laying off aircraft engineers and technicians---and once lost---the french fighter aircraft industry was doomed.

So---they were literally begging for the Paf to seek the aircraft---.

Now let me bring in a religious edict to the scenario---.

Golda Meir stated the Prophet Mohammad had 9 sword hanging on the walls of his room and not a piece of bread in the house---.

Now---did the air force commit Blasphemy when it did not follow the sunnat a rasool.

That is why I have stated many a time---Paf had commited a CARDINAL sin by donating the money meant for weapons to supposed charity from where it was looted and plundered---.

So---the next question in my assessment is that " did they do it intentionally "---just waiting for an opportunity to not buy the premium fighter aircraft available---so that if we did not have a tier one fighter---we won't be a threat to the enemy---.

The most important thing the poster has not mentioned is about the THREAT ANALYSIS by the PAF---. The Paf had analyzed and told Gen Musharraf---that any chance of war with India is over---so there was no need to spend any money on tier one aircraft---letus just go ahead and develop the JF17 and we will be OK.

Initially Gen Musharraf agreed to what the head of the air force was saying---but when later he realized that the paf has blundered in their analysis---he went ahead and ordered 36 J10's from china---he also realized the change in mood of the swedes---so he had cancelled 4 swedish awacs and ordered the chinese instead ( plz correct me on the numbers ) and did the paf hate him for that.

Now coming down further---why does the Paf not want the J10's---because it will prove their FAILURE---and put them to shame---because there wasno technical or financial reason to not to go for the J10's.

J10 is the pride of the chinese aviation---it is the pride of the chinese air force---it has massive development funds---J10 will never be a failed or an average project by looking at the chinese investment and development of this aircraft over the years---.

And how much funds do the Paf has to invest in the development of the JF17.

Bottomline in a weapons procurement is the TIME FACTOR---we may have a deadly JF17 after 4 years---but to get there---what we have lost politically and militarily cannot be reclaimed---.

With failure at every step to get the right aircraft---our enemy got stronger---and sabotaged our procurement further---and as we became weak militarily---we could not respond in kind to the threats by the enemy---.

Over time our air force has become so weak and miniscule---that at every step---we are waving the white flag---and that is a tragedy.

We live in a strange world and every single day things are changing ,Ever since i started following in 2004 i still feel left out about Rafale ,you are absolutely correct and to answer JF17 program would have been started with block 3/4 of today had we chose Rafale French Engine and Orders for exports would have been sure short .Alas people still defends the strangest of all decision .

hadees "momin aik sorakh se 2 bar nhi dasa jata"(yani 1 shakhs se 2 bar dhoka nhi khata)" (bukhari j:3 h:1065)

 

[AZADPAKISTAN2009]

Is new squadron of JF17 Thunder is due on Defence Day

 

[X-2.]

Paf must acquire 30/40 su or mirages from uae or f16 from Jordan for min to min air deterrence