Taha Samad
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Given the recent developments I thought make this discussion thread.
So here is my take on it:
Background
US blames Pakistan of harboring wanted terrorists, in particular Haqqani Network. Given the success of Zarb-e-Azb in NWA it is highly unlikely that haqqani network operates centers/bases freely any longer. It's leadership might still be hiding in Pakistan, but if so, it will spread out at different locations.
Pakistan on the other hand probably believes that US/Afghan govt. are not going to succeed in Afghanistan any time soon, given that Taliban already control or have influence on significant area of Afghanistan, so sooner or later Afghan Taliban will be a important player in Afghanistan and there is no need to turn them against Pakistan needlessly. Also given Indian/Afghan covert activities against Pakistan out of Afghanistan, deep down Pakistan may not even wish the US/Afghan govt. to succeed and hope that Taliban remain a challenge so Indian/Afghan convert activities remain contained. So Pakistan at the very least is not interested in taking any action against leadership of Haqqani Network, which it might believe will come handy when time for political settlement in Afghanistan comes.
Possibilities
Given that main target of US will be Haqqani Network hiding within Pakistan, there are following possibilities:
Defence against Drone Strikes:
I think PAF given its current assets should be well prepared to handle this scenario. As PAF Chief has said that US drones have been intercepted, but news was not given to media. So I think this strategy should continue to work, scramble jets when drone is detected, intercept it, force it to turn back. In an extremely worst case if it persists, shoot it down. I don't think situation would come to this but even if it does I don't think US would escalate matter with Pakistan just because it shot down a drone in violation of its airspace.
Defence against Abottabad Style Heli based Op
Again this is a real possibility. And PAF needs to prepare of this, but it can be handled.
1) Deploy MOUs of western border(at least in areas where incursion is likely to take place). This could come in handly specially if helis are flying low or are low observable.
2) Revisit deployment of low level radars. I am aware that newer YLC-6 LLRs will be mostly deployed around air bases, but even the if the older MPDR variants can be activated that would be good. I know they are prone to being jammed. But any jamming activity can be indication of incoming incursion & in such case AEW&C or fighters could be scrambled to investigate the area.
3) Deployment of Army Air Defence Units with Anza shoulder held missiles along with MOUs appropriately.
Remember even if we don't shoot down the helis, just make them return or force them to land & arrest the crew. It will be huge embarrassment for US ego. And big morale booster for Pakistan Armed Forces & nation.
Cruise Missile Strike
This is only possible if US has intelligence of a meeting of Haqqani Network leadership at some place. Also this will probably come from US CBG in Indian Ocean.
1) PN assets to keep an eye on movement of CBG. Alert other forces about presence of CBG in areas from which such a strike can take place.
2) ISI/MI should keep an eye of possible location of Haqqani Leadership, alert other services accordingly.
Now shooting down the CM will be somewhat challenging:
3) PAF should keep its Spada System in ready state. I believe they will mostly be deployed around PAF bases, but some of these bases are in major cities like Karachi, Chaklala, Peshawar, Quetta, so they can lend some protection if CM's target is in these cities or it flight path takes them over these cities.
4) PA to activate some of its Formation Protection Air Defence Assets like FM-90 and deploy them in cities or area's where such an attack may likely take place based on ISI/MI reports.
Remember, even if a good chunk of the CMs are intercepted it will be morale booster.
Contract Killers Taking Out the Targets
This classic old intelligence way of getting things done is probably the most safest option for both countries. Just like probably ISI got the TTP terrorist killed recently in Afghanistan. I am sure US has assets in Pakistan, who can arrange contract killers. Similarly Pakistan won't mind either since everything will shrouded in secrecy.
What do senior members think?
So here is my take on it:
Background
US blames Pakistan of harboring wanted terrorists, in particular Haqqani Network. Given the success of Zarb-e-Azb in NWA it is highly unlikely that haqqani network operates centers/bases freely any longer. It's leadership might still be hiding in Pakistan, but if so, it will spread out at different locations.
Pakistan on the other hand probably believes that US/Afghan govt. are not going to succeed in Afghanistan any time soon, given that Taliban already control or have influence on significant area of Afghanistan, so sooner or later Afghan Taliban will be a important player in Afghanistan and there is no need to turn them against Pakistan needlessly. Also given Indian/Afghan covert activities against Pakistan out of Afghanistan, deep down Pakistan may not even wish the US/Afghan govt. to succeed and hope that Taliban remain a challenge so Indian/Afghan convert activities remain contained. So Pakistan at the very least is not interested in taking any action against leadership of Haqqani Network, which it might believe will come handy when time for political settlement in Afghanistan comes.
Possibilities
Given that main target of US will be Haqqani Network hiding within Pakistan, there are following possibilities:
- Drone Strikes
- Abottabad Style Heli based Op
- Cruise Missile Strike
- Contract Killers Taking Out the Targets.
Defence against Drone Strikes:
I think PAF given its current assets should be well prepared to handle this scenario. As PAF Chief has said that US drones have been intercepted, but news was not given to media. So I think this strategy should continue to work, scramble jets when drone is detected, intercept it, force it to turn back. In an extremely worst case if it persists, shoot it down. I don't think situation would come to this but even if it does I don't think US would escalate matter with Pakistan just because it shot down a drone in violation of its airspace.
Defence against Abottabad Style Heli based Op
Again this is a real possibility. And PAF needs to prepare of this, but it can be handled.
1) Deploy MOUs of western border(at least in areas where incursion is likely to take place). This could come in handly specially if helis are flying low or are low observable.
2) Revisit deployment of low level radars. I am aware that newer YLC-6 LLRs will be mostly deployed around air bases, but even the if the older MPDR variants can be activated that would be good. I know they are prone to being jammed. But any jamming activity can be indication of incoming incursion & in such case AEW&C or fighters could be scrambled to investigate the area.
3) Deployment of Army Air Defence Units with Anza shoulder held missiles along with MOUs appropriately.
Remember even if we don't shoot down the helis, just make them return or force them to land & arrest the crew. It will be huge embarrassment for US ego. And big morale booster for Pakistan Armed Forces & nation.
Cruise Missile Strike
This is only possible if US has intelligence of a meeting of Haqqani Network leadership at some place. Also this will probably come from US CBG in Indian Ocean.
1) PN assets to keep an eye on movement of CBG. Alert other forces about presence of CBG in areas from which such a strike can take place.
2) ISI/MI should keep an eye of possible location of Haqqani Leadership, alert other services accordingly.
Now shooting down the CM will be somewhat challenging:
3) PAF should keep its Spada System in ready state. I believe they will mostly be deployed around PAF bases, but some of these bases are in major cities like Karachi, Chaklala, Peshawar, Quetta, so they can lend some protection if CM's target is in these cities or it flight path takes them over these cities.
4) PA to activate some of its Formation Protection Air Defence Assets like FM-90 and deploy them in cities or area's where such an attack may likely take place based on ISI/MI reports.
Remember, even if a good chunk of the CMs are intercepted it will be morale booster.
Contract Killers Taking Out the Targets
This classic old intelligence way of getting things done is probably the most safest option for both countries. Just like probably ISI got the TTP terrorist killed recently in Afghanistan. I am sure US has assets in Pakistan, who can arrange contract killers. Similarly Pakistan won't mind either since everything will shrouded in secrecy.
What do senior members think?
