What happens when we hit 400 million in a generation?
Something's got to give.
Hopefully, if the people in power on all sides, accept this as the most likely outcome, and don’t listen to the UN or the Lancet that predicts the population won’t increase that much, will invest in expanding the canal network and increase arable land to 70 million acres from the current 45-50 million acres. A 55% increase in population can be addressed by a 55% increase in arable land.
It is likely we will reach 360 million by 2047 and 400 million by 2060. We went from 115 million in early 1990s to the current at least 235 million in only 30 years.
If the government incentivizes re-investment into increasing productivity through use application of technology or human development (education) then we can increase Food and industrial outputs.
Population growth in decreasing naturally, but investments in education and mechanization will naturally make people want to invest more in their kids and avoid having more kids. The sooner this investment happens the faster the population growth will decrease. Thanks fully, Pakistan hypothetically has room to expand arable land.
Btw, Nigeria is expected to go from 200 million to 800 million over the next 70-80 years. As an oil rich nation, if managed well they can take advantage of such a large population, similar to what China did. Pakistan should not despair at the large population increase but consider it an opportunity to become a major power with the right management plan. If we are at 400 million and India at 1.67 billion by 2050, with India’s population falling and Pakistan’s population holding steady for a further generation, we can be price competitive for longer, and therefore lay out the case for attracting long term FDI similar to what India did in the 1990s.
Btw, South Asia has a long way to go in terms of development, just look at what a German cartoon said about India’s population surpassing China.
People from Karachi saying they have under counted pollution by 1 crore in that city due to political issues..
Not unlikely. Hopefully when the PTI is re-elected on the national level, the data can be reviewed and a more through and accurate census can be carried in the course of a couple years.
