Pak may never try another Kargil, but it could get worse

[Bang Galore]

What Kargil did, was expose the complete lack of progress the leadership of Pakistan's Military forces made since 65 in their decision making abilities. When a small coterie of commanders could launch such a massive operation using what is at the end a national and state asset(our troops, our fathers, brothers and sons).. and then sacrifice them at the altar for their own glory.
AND..when that was not achieved as desired, abandon them to be cut up and slaughtered by an advancing enemy that they could not fathom would react the way it did.. to the eventual shameful end that our enemy had to give our troops their last rites.

What Kargil did was take away an actual surprise element, in an actual war of NATIONAL CONSENSUS in Pakistan and not some generals wet dream for glory. A tactical plan that may have been useful at a later stage was washed away for personal gain.

What Kargil did was take away any legitimacy that Pakistan had over Kashmir, previously.. the world was still willing to consider that the freedom movement in Kashmir was still mostly based on Kashmiri youths(albeit trained in Pakistan) and not someone from Bahawalpur fighting in plain clothes pretending to be a Kashmiri.

What Kargil did , was to verify without an iota of doubt.. that the Pakistan Army treats the other two wings of the Pakistani armed forces as its subservient and inferior..rather than equals and comrades at arms. When , yet again as in 65.. the PAF was kept in the Dark over what was an obvious large scale move.

What kargil did, was show that the Pakistani nation.. is without a doubt.. easily influenced by tales of Military glory which are otherwise tales of shameful capitulation. That given popular support, we will continue to support en elite based on feudals, military and businessmen. Which begs the question that whether India was the only actual nation that gained independence from a "raj".

What kargil did, was turn Pakistan into the ultimate world Pariah.. which would have stayed that way had it not been for the serendipitous act(For the Musharraf government) of Sept 11 2001.

What Kargil did, was slap a reality on the face of the Pakistani establishment(apart from Musharrafs coterie) that Nuclear weapons do not guarantee safety from being attacked after pulling pranks. How quickly that is forgotten is something else.

What Kargil did for India, was to expose its intelligence services and their rather inept ability to not see a small military airfield in the mountains turned into a massive Arms depot..
Or their inability to gauge plain jane movements on the Pakistani side of the border.
It exposed India's actual vulnerability in sustaining its operations inside Kashmir via its limited number of ground pipelines, and the sheer horror its troops face day in and day out.
It exposed the IAF's lack of actual strike ability and basic vulnerability to even the most rudimentary of AD systems.
It also exposed a sleeping propaganda machine within India that is obsessed with Pakistan and has since not died out, churning out hyperventilating items after items to this day against Pakistan.

What Kargil did show the most however, was that India has learned a lot after 65.. Pakistan hasn't learnt a thing since its inception.

Ahhh......finally we find out the true identity of Oscar. He is either Nawaz Sharif (doubtful because this Oscar chap doesn't sound foolish)or one of the generals who were superannuated by Musharraf (possible; some of them seem very intelligent & articulate which could have been the reason for their superannuation in the first place) since everybody else on this forum(from the Pakistani side) seems convinced that Kargil was a masterstroke & a great victory & NS & some disgruntled Generals are the only ones who can't/won't see the stupendous victory.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Thanks Oscar an capt popoye taking time to answer my CT with differing views.I think all china related discussion should belong to other thread as and when i'll keep cross posting these posts to that thread.

You are welcome to do that. Hopefully it may fuel some meaningful discussion.

Oscar, as is usual with him; has posted a very meaningful and introspective post. I hope that kind of spirit suffuses the appropriate people concerned. Only good can come out of that, both for themselves and all around them.

p.s. for some odd reason, I'm unable to thank Oscar's post above, so for the present I'll confine myself to recording it here.

 

[Dark Warrior]

Ahhh......finally we find out the true identity of Oscar. He is either Nawaz Sharif

They could be relatives you know.Oscar is a Sayyid as far as I know and Nawaz Sharif is a Sharif.
Sayyid's and Sharif's are related to each other.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

They could be relatives you know.Oscar is a Sayyid as far as I know and Nawaz Sharif is a Sharif.
Sayyid's and Sharif's are related to each other.

I earnestly hope that you have more meaningful activities to pursue than to chase some chimera.

 

[Rafi]

An indian opinion on the facts, from the horses mouth to God's ear.

 

[Mav3rick]

Ahhh......finally we find out the true identity of Oscar. He is either Nawaz Sharif (doubtful because this Oscar chap doesn't sound foolish)or one of the generals who were superannuated by Musharraf (possible; some of them seem very intelligent & articulate which could have been the reason for their superannuation in the first place) since everybody else on this forum(from the Pakistani side) seems convinced that Kargil was a masterstroke & a great victory & NS & some disgruntled Generals are the only ones who can't/won't see the stupendous victory.

One does not really have to be NS to post NS's views, one can be a supporter as well. However, whatever anybody has posted on this forum has been his/her views. And since Generals on both sides are the most experienced in warfare, I would consider Musharraf's views to trump any views from any layman however anti Pak Army or pro India it is. Similarly, we all know what Indian General said so that should really be the end of story.

You are welcome to do that. Hopefully it may fuel some meaningful discussion.

Oscar, as is usual with him; has posted a very meaningful and introspective post. I hope that kind of spirit suffuses the appropriate people concerned. Only good can come out of that, both for themselves and all around them.

p.s. for some odd reason, I'm unable to thank Oscar's post above, so for the present I'll confine myself to recording it here.

Funny, how any comment that is in support of India is considered 'meaningful' and 'introspective'.

P.S. You may not be able to thank Oscar as he may have exceeded the quota of thanks that one can get from Indians in a day!

 

[Jackdaws]

Actually, although India may hold the treaty and that it was signed with India, who holds the land that we surrendered? India??? No it does not, so India was just a ***** that was unleashed by clever Bengalis. You like being a *****?





Read neutral accounts when it was Indian Army Chief who personally informed the Indian Prime Minister that his forces had exhausted almost all ammunition? Be it our Military or our Civilian Government, both crumble infront of the western masters, Military albeit with some resistance. Similarly Yahya caved to US pressure. Big surprise!





Sending in tourists was against any agreement? It was not as if we were building up Military bases there. Toothless argument from your end, really.





Actually, the Prime Minister was 'summoned' to Washington by his masters to force a withdrawal as 4k fighters were proving to be too much for Indian military. Similarly in 01/02, not too far from '99, you withdrew after making so many tall claims of invasion and surgical strikes etc. It's obvious that your military had still not recovered from the mauling they received in '99.

Err - so the Germans surrendered to the Brits, Soviets and Americans - they did not occupy France, Netherlands, Denmark etc. LOl - so according to your logic, the French and the Dutch used the victorious Allies?

First of all, Yahya was '71 - not in '65 - in '65 it was Ayub. As I said, learn your own history before blowing smoke. Let's see these neutral accounts where India actually had less ammunition left than Pakistan did.

You don't send in tourists to non demarcated areas by issuing Pakistani visas. If there is a precedence for this absurdity, please enlighten us. If not, then you had no business sending in tourists into an area which was never demarcated between two countries.

No, the Prime Minister was not "summoned" to Washington. It was July 4, and Clinton did not even wish to meet him. Infact, Clinton was so pi$$ed at Pakistan that your Prime Minister was not even received in the White House - they met at Blair House. Your leaders went begging of their own accord to try and gain some face-saving solution. As I said, learn your own history.

 

[bronxbull]

Kargil didn't help the pakistani army much,it shows the vulnerability of our defences.

We need more sainik schools, compulsory military training with added credits.

So many people wasting their lives in online trading and petty jobs,they can do a lot better serving in the defence forces or atleast getting trained for it.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

Funny, how any comment that is in support of India is considered 'meaningful' and 'introspective'.

P.S. You may not be able to thank Oscar as he may have exceeded the quota of thanks that one can get from Indians in a day!

No, its all about having some intelligence and intellectual capacity. Other people can read whatever and however they wish to based on their individual ability or limitations.
Comprehende!

 

[ajtr]

Fairly off..
While the Chinese have concerns over Xinjang , their concerns are limited to terrorist activities...
and unlike the western and eastern borders where there is a certain "lax" in curtailing the training camps, the Pakistani state has been extremely quick to act against any elements operating that threaten China. Silently and rather brutally infact, so the Chinese are assured of their security concerns with us.
The Chinese are also kept aware of our Nuclear weapons security and have never expressed any fear from any official or unofficial channels except perhaps the odd Hong Kong "intellectual".
So trust me when I say that Pakistans Nukes have little to do with Chinese control or keys or whatever. If there is anything that will prevent their firing , it will be on a leadership level and not on the ground.
Leadership that can be convinced to stand down against a nuclear attack, or hold back on neutralization operations against its nukes.
But as it stands right now, if needed.. orders can be given this second.. and nukes will fly regardless of the US or China.

Now this does not mean that there will be no more attacks in the Xinjiang reigion, since just as Pakistan has "good terrorists and bad terrorists".. so does the US,India and others.
Afghanistan is still a base for such operations against China.

Oscar,
PA did act on ETIM group and other situations like lal masjid operation or on the assassination of Chineses Engineers involved in projects with pakistan on Chinese govt.prodding.As you classify good and bad terrorists in above posts I wonder how you separate them:i guess XinJiang group(ETIM)as bad terrorists + one those attack chinese citizens and interests on pakistani soil as bad terrorists) but who are the good ones.Secondly there are so many loosely operating tanzeems overlapping each others' interest and drawing cadre from both bad and good ones how its possible to keep tab on all of them.

From geopolitics and realpolitic let me jump on to philosophical plane.
Iqbal long back had drawn the map of the Pan-Islamic World,to whom Pakistan owns him as its national poet and visionary of its existence — categorically included Kashgar when he says in one of his famous couplets:

“Aik ho Muslim haram ki pasbani ke liye,
Neel ke sahil say le ke taba Khak-e-Kashgar.”

(Become one for guarding of Muslim sacredness.
From the banks of the Nile up to the soil of Kashgar.)

Now my question is that PA and Pak establishment may have its own foreign /security policy wrt to Xinjiang which is opposite to Iqbal's vision but then majority of pak awam or majority in PA agrees with this opposition to the PA views wrt kashgar. If yes.hoDoesnt it like saying that we are dumping Iqbal's ideology and its just not practical to follow it.If No then how much stiff resistance you expect from the people.
This is where my Part of CT on nukes kicks in wrt to chinese of pakistani nuke is same as that of western fear.

As for India best way is to just keep converting its fear of pakistani nukes as the fear of everyone.India did tested this wrt to terror targeted at india and the game theory does works in favour of india as one saw in last decade.

 

[Executioner]

Oscar If I remove some of those star *** words then it's fine, with data and are video are ok ?

 

[ajtr]

Some very interesting view there. So let me make a quick response to that.

Your postulation is not incorrect. In fact that it is a major determinant in the Chinese Foreign Policy vis-a-vis Pakistan. Deep down inside, China has some major concerns wrt the state of affairs in Pakistan. Since Pakistan increasingly is throwing up a picture of an 'uncontrolled chain reaction'. There are far too many loose cannons in present-day Pakistan, for anybody's comfort even for a friend's peace of mind. China is not the only such identity, even KSA is a case in point.

Just to take your hypothesis further, while China is a supporter of the Deep State (Mily. Estt.) in Pakistan; that support is not unlimited.
Why?
Because China is clearly cognisant of the fact that the Deep State is riddled with 'Zia's Children' i.e. Men who will allow their Fundamentalism to overcome their Professionalism. Since the Chinese are convinced (certainly with justification) that the Political Estt. in Pakistan (for many reasons, not all of its own doing) is simply incapable of controlling things (esp the Strategic Weapon stockpile) it is now confonted with the situation (shall I say mortification) that the Caretakers (or Khaki Chowkidars, to borrow a term from our friend VCheng) may themselves be liable to be subverted/suborned. That is certainly no cause for comfort. Even for any friend! Especially if that friend happens to be a neighbor.

Which is why I had said in an earlier post (maybe six months ago) in response to Santro/Oscar (who I respect greatly) that "Pakistan's Nukes are both a boon and a bane to Pakistan itself". I stand by that opinion even now.

About your concluding paras, while I consider that to be in the realm of hypothesis: there is merit in that also!
Why do you think that Kargil episode played out the way that it did?
As I said in an earlier post on this thread: that Kargil punched a huge hole in the theory of "Nuclear Deterrence".
Now you may be able to guess why. As well as why India was able to raise the stakes during that episode and call its opponent's bluff. Just as India demonstrated its ability to respond in an "asymetric warfare" but using means vastly different from what anybody (including the opponent) expected. that is what worked really.

So again reverting back to the thrust of my argument to explain why the Chinese have been doing what they have. Its all about balance and order. Yin and Yang!

That cute little black and white graphic that we are used to seeing is very important.

I do get that since Zia's days PA ideology has completely changed and with the Zia's generation ideologically motivated generals start replacing the officers corp thats where the real fear of west and china kicks in wrt to nukes and terror.Till India was only the punching bag it was all fine with everyone.but as one can se today that india's problem of 1990s has become the world problem today.As world got more threatened india is getting safe as compared to 1980-90s.Same is happening with nukes.Ie the solution to india's fear is that to divert that fear west and everyone else.

And as for chinese what they are that the one who control the strategic weapon in pakistan are getting more ideologically motivated themselves.

Upto kargil war all fits in well and answers the chinese help to india.

But 1971 is still a mystery that even so much prodding by nixon admin chinese never attacked from north.

If it were nukes and terrorists that made china help india in kargil what was the chinese fear in 1971 that stopped it helping pakistan to reduce pressure from north.

As i see last 30-40 yrs of chinese behaviour i do think that 2 front war is just IA's boogeyman just to put GOI in pressure to get more funds for defence.....correct me if i'm wrong here.

 

[karan.1970]

An indian opinion on the facts, from the horses mouth to God's ear.

when fanboys just read the title of the video and dont have the patience to actually go thru it before letting their fingers dance on the keyboard, it generally ends in a EOTF (Egg on the face) syndrome.. Let me list out what this general said..

I am not convinced we really won the war because, while we gained tactical victory..and We regained our lost territorywe lost 500+ lives .. and while We gained from this war but did not consolidate the gains politically, diplomatically or militarily

This is how an Indian general assess the situation..


Let me give you a depiction of how Musharraf and some of his fanboys on this forum assess the Kargil episode

We sneaked in and captured the posts assuming India will not escalate because we have the nooclear Bumb. However Indians did not care for their citizens and threatened us with escalation across the LOC and IB. In the interest of innocent lives on both sides of the border (and saving my own a$$) I asked our PM to go to USA and ask them to deter India from escalating. Our PM got hammered and ordered to remove our forces which by now were getting killed by IAF sorties. Plus the whole International community was ridiculing this action, so we in our super intelligence decided to withdraw our forces without any cease fire (which we couldnt sign any way because our soldiers were really claimed to be militants and hence did not have the status of enemy combatants for India) and got our soldiers slaughtered as they retreated down the slopes and lost close to 4000 soldiers.. But we have point 5353 with us and India cried in front of International community and hence this was a glorious victory for Paksitani Army...

 

[Rafi]

China and Pakistan's strategic interests are in convergence - and regarding the Nukes - let me categorically state that the nuclear weapons are our's to use, and even China does not get a say, if you really want, we can try out your hypothesis, but would not be good for your future generations.

General Pal is saying india lost the war, strategically, militarily. And his opinion counts, he was the supreme commander of all indian land forces in the conflict.

 

[Jackdaws]

China and Pakistan's strategic interests are in convergence - and regarding the Nukes - let me categorically state that the nuclear weapons are our's to use, and even China does not get a say, if you really want, we can try out your hypothesis, but would not be good for your future generations.

General Pal is saying india lost the war, strategically, militarily. And his opinion counts, he was the supreme commander of all indian land forces in the conflict.

Sure - we want you to test the hypothesis. Do it.