Pak may never try another Kargil, but it could get worse

[modern_newton]

Guys no need to insult each others..just try to convince your Army General speaking in video above before convincing us that you actually won the war..good bye

 

[ashokdeiva]

You really think you did not sow the seeds of hate when you invaded Kashmir in '48 on some lies of succession to India by the raja, proof of which was never produced?

when the princly states where given a choice to them either to join one of us or remain seperate, Maharaj of Kashmir opted to stay seperate, but you guys invaded it, and when the Maharaj decided that Pakistan can not be a trusted neighbour he decided to join us.
you started it or i started is not the point, how can it be solved is the point.
you have your piece of Kashmir and we have ours. we are ready to settle for what we have for each other are you ready to settle for making the LOC as the INternational Border.

Guys no need to insult each others..just try to convince your Army General speaking in video above before convincing us that you actually won the war..good bye

ya ya, your army general Mr Musharaf is so convinced in his forigne Manson for planning Kargil and loosing a good number of good men who just followed his lunacy in the name of CHAIN OF COMMAND.

 

[K-Xeroid]

Similarly, while we infiltrated into Kargil and inflicted heavy losses on India, we failed in our objective of severing the supply lines to Siachin Glacier and thus we ended up where we started from. It was also a diplomatic loss for Pakistan as well.

Actually It is Strategic Victory as well , where we still got few Position where we can effectively Target supply lines to Siachin Glacier in case of any conflict. But currently We aren't in any hurry to capture Siachin as it naturally proved a deadliest place for man kind. Our supplies from Skardu is bit harder to targeted as IAF even failed to achieved its military objective of bombing batalik sector effetively. and Naturally that Location is pretty much supportive for our air defence forces. Where as far Indian Base in Tajikistan are concerned then PAF is prepared enough to handle them. Yea! It can be termed as indian diplomatic Victory but for avoiding any Nuclear conflict withdrawl was the simplest strategy which Nawaz understood at then.

 

[karan.1970]

You know very well that words like R@pe that I used were to describe the situation and not to glorify the word, even subtle hints from your side of otherwise is actual admittance of failure to produce anything significant or worthwhile. Drawing attention away from the main topic in discussion is also a typical trait.

And what situation is that dude? You are somehow projecting the so called r@pist in the situation as a victor and the one r@ped as the defeated. Kind of reflects on what your thoughts are about the actual act of a r@pe.. Isnt it.. I mean unless you meant to project Pakistani army as a criminal (which a r@pist is) and I misunderstood you.. Think about it.. May be this is something about your own psych that you hadnt discovered till now...

 

[ajtr]

@Joe shearer and @Capt.Popeye

I've one more theory do think about it.I'll rather call it my CT and let me know what you both think.

There is no denying that china did help pakistan in providing both conventional weaponry and strategic ones.But after 9/11 whatever fears west(USA+Europe) has about Pakistani loose nukes in the hands of terror groups, same fears does china has with china on many occassions complaining about Xinjiang terror groups getting trained in pakistan.And China unlike USA or Europe unfortunately shares land borders with pakistan in its resistive province of xinjiang as india does in kashmir.N

Now the same loose nuke which west fear is it possible is making china fear that loose nuke too?If so pakistani missiles which can fly to india or to destroy israel usa targets in gulf can also fly to to china mainland. or the nukes can be smmuhggeled in by some tanzeems.
Isnt it possible like usa china too is keeping watch on pakistani nukes with china having its keys to make sure that it dont become a target.What i want to say is Pakistan is like turkey having usa nukes on its soil with keys always being with usa since 1960s.Same is with pakistan having the nukes but its keys with china or usa.

In other words pakistan is virtually without any nukes.So what fear india has from pakistani nuke---i say none.only thing is how india strike balance with china and usa so that they both wont get tempted to provide keys to the PA.ie india should declare nuclear sam son on any country that hurts indian interests.


OFcourse above all is my CT and deductions from CT.

 

[Capt.Popeye]

i'm cross posting ur post in this thread with ur permisson.

You certainly may. I did notice that thread later and thought that this particular post may seem more appropriate there.

 

[K-Xeroid]

ya ya PAKISTANI ARMY is all mighty and OUR ARMY is not worth your jucie.
what the crap are you talking man. You guys lost the war that is the cold truth. we are not over whelmed by each of the victories we had in the past. we just want to avoid another battle and another masacare of both IA and PA soldiers just to satisfy the egos of the PA generals who have so far designed the confrontations we have had in the past. and that is the reason we have not initiated any of the battle we have had in the past.
I hope you understand what i mean.

Their is nothing egoistic in it, When our miltarial approch had done enough damage to enemies that they are seeking for a dead statements of Nawaz to compare their damages with ours. thats called attempts of satisfactory of personnal egos which you guys are continously doing here. Indian claims over PAF during 65 had also proved a lie at then. Now Pakistan have equally Tactical capabilties to counter any Indian aggression and thats kept your forces under your own boundry lines during 2008.

 

[SQ8]

@Joe shearer and @Capt.Popeye

I've one more theory do think about it.I'll rather call it my CT and let me know what you both think.

There is no denying that china did help pakistan in providing both conventional weaponry and strategic ones.But after 9/11 whatever fears west(USA+Europe) has about Pakistani loose nukes in the hands of terror groups, same fears does china has with china on many occassions complaining about Xinjiang terror groups getting trained in pakistan.And China unlike USA or Europe unfortunately shares land borders with pakistan in its resistive province of xinjiang as india does in kashmir.N

Now the same loose nuke which west fear is it possible is making china fear that loose nuke too?If so pakistani missiles which can fly to india or to destroy israel usa targets in gulf can also fly to to china mainland. or the nukes can be smmuhggeled in by some tanzeems.
Isnt it possible like usa china too is keeping watch on pakistani nukes with china having its keys to make sure that it dont become a target.What i want to say is Pakistan is like turkey having usa nukes on its soil with keys always being with usa since 1960s.Same is with pakistan having the nukes but its keys with china or usa.

In other words pakistan is virtually without any nukes.So what fear india has from pakistani nuke---i say none.only thing is how india strike balance with china and usa so that they both wont get tempted to provide keys to the PA.ie india should declare nuclear sam son on any country that hurts indian interests.


OFcourse above all is my CT and deductions from CT.

Fairly off..
While the Chinese have concerns over Xinjang , their concerns are limited to terrorist activities...
and unlike the western and eastern borders where there is a certain "lax" in curtailing the training camps, the Pakistani state has been extremely quick to act against any elements operating that threaten China. Silently and rather brutally infact, so the Chinese are assured of their security concerns with us.
The Chinese are also kept aware of our Nuclear weapons security and have never expressed any fear from any official or unofficial channels except perhaps the odd Hong Kong "intellectual".
So trust me when I say that Pakistans Nukes have little to do with Chinese control or keys or whatever. If there is anything that will prevent their firing , it will be on a leadership level and not on the ground.
Leadership that can be convinced to stand down against a nuclear attack, or hold back on neutralization operations against its nukes.
But as it stands right now, if needed.. orders can be given this second.. and nukes will fly regardless of the US or China.

Now this does not mean that there will be no more attacks in the Xinjiang reigion, since just as Pakistan has "good terrorists and bad terrorists".. so does the US,India and others.
Afghanistan is still a base for such operations against China.

 

[bronxbull]

Basically,we learnt to never trust pakistan again.Great lesson.

 

[karan.1970]

What Kargil did do for India however was to grant India international legitimacy to reject any CBM proposal from Pakistan citing lack of trust based on Kargil.. Hence the stillborn Siachen troop reduction talks etc...

 

[Bang Galore]

Actually It is Strategic Victory as well , where we still got few Position where we can effectively Target supply lines to Siachin Glacier in case of any conflict. But currently We aren't in any hurry to capture Siachin as it naturally proved a deadliest place for man kind. Our supplies from Skardu is bit harder to targeted as IAF even failed to achieved its military objective of bombing batalik sector effetively. and Naturally that Location is pretty much supportive for our air defence forces. Where as far Indian Base in Tajikistan are concerned then PAF is prepared enough to handle them. Yea! It can be termed as indian diplomatic Victory but for avoiding any Nuclear conflict withdrawl was the simplest strategy which Nawaz understood at then.

You will never get a chance. See below:

Kargil lesson: India plugs LoC gaps

India seems to have learnt its lesson from Kargil. Thirteen years after Pakistani troops and mujahideen infiltrated the sensitive sector in J&K, the country has plugged many gaps and beefed up defences along the LoC so that 1999 is not repeated.

The Centre is going all-out to ensure that supplies reach troops 24x7 in the forward areas. The work on the first phase 6-km strategic all-weather Zoji La tunnel — linking Srinagar to Leh — is scheduled to start next month.

Sources said after the Kargil war, the Indian Army has deployed nearly a division — around 10,000 troops — along the Mushkoh-Drass-Kaksar-Yaldor axis of the LoC. Just a brigade — 3,000 troops — used to man this place before May 1999. Striking capacity has also been doubled to 2,000 men.

According to Army brass, after Kargil, when Pakistan had occupied vacated Indian Army posts along the LoC in March 1999, it was decided that all posts with rare exception of the least vulnerable ones would be manned round-the-year.

With all battalion headquarters in the sector accessible through metal roads now, the troops at over 15,000 feet are taken care of even during the harsh winter months.

Besides, unmanned aerial vehicles, surveillance aircraft and satellites are routinely deployed over this sector to pick up military activity across the LoC or intrusion on the Indian side. The Indian defences are backed by Leh airport, which was turned into a fighter base after the Kargil war.

However, the key change after Kargil has been infrastructure upgrade. Currently, the following upgrade is on:
The 422-km Srinagar-Leh road is being made into double carriage way at the cost of Rs. 981.45 crore. The project which began in 2006 is scheduled to be completed by December 2015.
The advance landing ground at Kargil with a runway of 6,000 feet has been made operational.
An alternative road axis is being built to link Manali with Leh with a tunnel under Rohtang La. On the Ladakh side, Darcha-Padam-Nimu-Leh 251 km road is under construction to feed troops on the LoC and on the border with China.

Kargil lesson: India plugs LoC gaps - Hindustan Times

 

[Capt.Popeye]

@Joe shearer and @Capt.Popeye

I've one more theory do think about it.I'll rather call it my CT and let me know what you both think.

There is no denying that china did help pakistan in providing both conventional weaponry and strategic ones.But after 9/11 whatever fears west(USA+Europe) has about Pakistani loose nukes in the hands of terror groups, same fears does china has with china on many occassions complaining about Xinjiang terror groups getting trained in pakistan.And China unlike USA or Europe unfortunately shares land borders with pakistan in its resistive province of xinjiang as india does in kashmir.N

Now the same loose nuke which west fear is it possible is making china fear that loose nuke too?If so pakistani missiles which can fly to india or to destroy israel usa targets in gulf can also fly to to china mainland. or the nukes can be smmuhggeled in by some tanzeems.
Isnt it possible like usa china too is keeping watch on pakistani nukes with china having its keys to make sure that it dont become a target.What i want to say is Pakistan is like turkey having usa nukes on its soil with keys always being with usa since 1960s.Same is with pakistan having the nukes but its keys with china or usa.

In other words pakistan is virtually without any nukes.So what fear india has from pakistani nuke---i say none.only thing is how india strike balance with china and usa so that they both wont get tempted to provide keys to the PA.ie india should declare nuclear sam son on any country that hurts indian interests.


OFcourse above all is my CT and deductions from CT.

Some very interesting view there. So let me make a quick response to that.

Your postulation is not incorrect. In fact that it is a major determinant in the Chinese Foreign Policy vis-a-vis Pakistan. Deep down inside, China has some major concerns wrt the state of affairs in Pakistan. Since Pakistan increasingly is throwing up a picture of an 'uncontrolled chain reaction'. There are far too many loose cannons in present-day Pakistan, for anybody's comfort even for a friend's peace of mind. China is not the only such identity, even KSA is a case in point.

Just to take your hypothesis further, while China is a supporter of the Deep State (Mily. Estt.) in Pakistan; that support is not unlimited.
Why?
Because China is clearly cognisant of the fact that the Deep State is riddled with 'Zia's Children' i.e. Men who will allow their Fundamentalism to overcome their Professionalism. Since the Chinese are convinced (certainly with justification) that the Political Estt. in Pakistan (for many reasons, not all of its own doing) is simply incapable of controlling things (esp the Strategic Weapon stockpile) it is now confonted with the situation (shall I say mortification) that the Caretakers (or Khaki Chowkidars, to borrow a term from our friend VCheng) may themselves be liable to be subverted/suborned. That is certainly no cause for comfort. Even for any friend! Especially if that friend happens to be a neighbor.

Which is why I had said in an earlier post (maybe six months ago) in response to Santro/Oscar (who I respect greatly) that "Pakistan's Nukes are both a boon and a bane to Pakistan itself". I stand by that opinion even now.

About your concluding paras, while I consider that to be in the realm of hypothesis: there is merit in that also!
Why do you think that Kargil episode played out the way that it did?
As I said in an earlier post on this thread: that Kargil punched a huge hole in the theory of "Nuclear Deterrence".
Now you may be able to guess why. As well as why India was able to raise the stakes during that episode and call its opponent's bluff. Just as India demonstrated its ability to respond in an "asymetric warfare" but using means vastly different from what anybody (including the opponent) expected. that is what worked really.

So again reverting back to the thrust of my argument to explain why the Chinese have been doing what they have. Its all about balance and order. Yin and Yang!

That cute little black and white graphic that we are used to seeing is very important.

 

[SQ8]

What Kargil did, was expose the complete lack of progress the leadership of Pakistan's Military forces made since 65 in their decision making abilities. When a small coterie of commanders could launch such a massive operation using what is at the end a national and state asset(our troops, our fathers, brothers and sons).. and then sacrifice them at the altar for their own glory.
AND..when that was not achieved as desired, abandon them to be cut up and slaughtered by an advancing enemy that they could not fathom would react the way it did.. to the eventual shameful end that our enemy had to give our troops their last rites.

What Kargil did was take away an actual surprise element, in an actual war of NATIONAL CONSENSUS in Pakistan and not some generals wet dream for glory. A tactical plan that may have been useful at a later stage was washed away for personal gain.

What Kargil did was take away any legitimacy that Pakistan had over Kashmir, previously.. the world was still willing to consider that the freedom movement in Kashmir was still mostly based on Kashmiri youths(albeit trained in Pakistan) and not someone from Bahawalpur fighting in plain clothes pretending to be a Kashmiri.

What Kargil did , was to verify without an iota of doubt.. that the Pakistan Army treats the other two wings of the Pakistani armed forces as its subservient and inferior..rather than equals and comrades at arms. When , yet again as in 65.. the PAF was kept in the Dark over what was an obvious large scale move.

What kargil did, was show that the Pakistani nation.. is without a doubt.. easily influenced by tales of Military glory which are otherwise tales of shameful capitulation. That given popular support, we will continue to support en elite based on feudals, military and businessmen. Which begs the question that whether India was the only actual nation that gained independence from a "raj".

What kargil did, was turn Pakistan into the ultimate world Pariah.. which would have stayed that way had it not been for the serendipitous act(For the Musharraf government) of Sept 11 2001.

What Kargil did, was slap a reality on the face of the Pakistani establishment(apart from Musharrafs coterie) that Nuclear weapons do not guarantee safety from being attacked after pulling pranks. How quickly that is forgotten is something else.

What Kargil did for India, was to expose its intelligence services and their rather inept ability to not see a small military airfield in the mountains turned into a massive Arms depot..
Or their inability to gauge plain jane movements on the Pakistani side of the border.
It exposed India's actual vulnerability in sustaining its operations inside Kashmir via its limited number of ground pipelines, and the sheer horror its troops face day in and day out.
It exposed the IAF's lack of actual strike ability and basic vulnerability to even the most rudimentary of AD systems.
It also exposed a sleeping propaganda machine within India that is obsessed with Pakistan and has since not died out, churning out hyperventilating items after items to this day against Pakistan.

What Kargil did show the most however, was that India has learned a lot after 65.. Pakistan hasn't learnt a thing since its inception.

 

[Bang Galore]

to remind your people how stupid your forefather's were and how none of you show any remorse for your stupidty.

True, some of them are themselves (soon to be)prime candidates for the Darwin awards.

 

[ajtr]

Thanks Oscar an capt popoye taking time to answer my CT with differing views.I think all china related discussion should belong to other thread as and when i'll keep cross posting these posts to that thread.