Opinion: Iran Is Exhausted!

[BLACKEAGLE]

Opinion: Iran Is Exhausted!

Abdulrahman Al-Rashed 8 hours ago

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
Iran’s supreme leader bitterly complains that the West has not kept its promises and that economic sanctions on his country have not been lifted although Tehran has halted its nuclear program as required. The situation in Iran must be difficult for the Iranian government to complain this much.

It has a very bad luck as the oil prices are still cheap and this is why Iran’s financial situation, after signing the nuclear deal, is much worse than it was at the same time last year after accepting the initial agreement!

The Iranian command did not think this will happen as it assumed lifting sanctions will end its economic crisis.

At the same time, the scope of Iran’s military involvement in other countries has increased due to the escalation of battles and funding of its allies, such as Bashar al-Assad in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Iran, like the rest of oil-producing countries, has lost more than 60 percent of its major income and financial transactions, which it regained from its frozen assets, that did not help it either.

Moreover, the contracts and deals it rushed to sign with several governments and global companies to buy weapons and civil aircrafts and carry out infrastructure projects lack funding; this means that Tehran will have to pay more interests for banks and fines if it delays the payments.

The Iranian government did not get to be happy that it signed the nuclear deal and this is why the supreme leader is expressing his anger in bitterness towards the West.

He, himself, might have been deceived when his team, which was enthusiastic to reconcile with the West, convinced him that the nuclear deal will resolve the country’s financial problems; however, he realized that revenues have significantly decreased.

Nevertheless, this is not the case of his neighbors who compete with him, such as the oil-producing Gulf countries because they have massive reserves and funds capable of financing the deficit; in addition to that world banks are also willing to lend them money when needed. Iran does not have any of that.

This is why the government in Tehran has to realize that the reconciliation with Washington alone will not grant it wealth, influence or dominance. Perhaps, it has to realize that no matter how much it empowers its military force and its Revolutionary Guard Corps, it will not be able to end the deficiency in the budget of bread and rice and meet its citizens’ basic needs.

Iran wants to impose its conditions everywhere and in all the fields. It wants to raise the oil prices globally without getting affected, like it did in the recent OPEC conference in Doha after it has repeatedly refused to decrease its share of production and asked other OPEC countries, such as the Gulf ones, to decrease their shares for the prices to increase.

Not only that, but Iran also wants the Yemen crisis’ peace negotiators in Kuwait to grant its Houthi ally more than it deserves at the expense of the Yemeni situation, which existed before the Houthis’ coup.

It refuses to make any concessions in Syria as it insists to maintain the entire Damascus regime represented by Bashar al-Assad and uses its militias to serve this purpose.

It pushes its allies in Iraq, such as former Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, to stir chaos by altering the political map.

Possibly, what further increased frustration in Iran is that the supreme leader, the president and the rest of the state figures have promised the Iranian people, at the beginning of this year, that there will be a phase of quick boom. They did so to convince them that regardless of them being forced to tolerate the international sanctions for 20 years, they’ve finally won the battle, although they did not fulfill their promise of a nuclear bomb. Nonetheless, the Iranians currently realize that this is not the truth and that they put up with 20 years only to become poorer than they already were.

After failing to make profits from the nuclear deal, has the formula become clearer to policymakers and those executing these policies in Tehran? The reconciliation with the West will not succeed at resolving Iran’s structural crises and will not address the regime’s urgent needs.

If Tehran’s regime ruled upon logic and reason, it would have extended its hand to all of its neighbors to overcome its crises, which are mostly triggered by it.

The regional reconciliation can achieve the same goals of stability and prosperity for the Iranians and their Gulf neighbors. However, for regimes like Iran and South Korea, this logic is difficult to understand, and continuing to reject this logic only worsens Tehran’s crises. Iran wants to expand and dominate when it can’t even feed its own people.
http://english.aawsat.com/2016/04/article55350038/opinion-iran-exhausted

 

[Lord ZeN]

However, for regimes like Iran and South Korea, this logic is difficult to understand, and continuing to reject this logic only worsens Tehran’s crises.

Epic fail.

The author is actually calling South Korea an evil illogical regime. And being compared to South Korea should be actually seen as an acknowledgement and sign of rejuvenated Iran.

 

[Serpentine]

Another day, another rubbish pile of words from Saudi mouthpiece, A-Awsat.

The ridiculousness of the junk outlets like Al-Arabiya or A-Awsat publish about Iran can not be measured properly.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Epic fail.

The author is actually calling South Korea an evil illogical regime. And being compared to South Korea should be actually seen as an acknowledgement and sign of rejuvenated Iran.

Another day, another rubbish pile of words from Saudi mouthpiece, A-Awsat.

The ridiculousness of the junk outlets like Al-Arabiya or A-Awsat publish about Iran can not be measured properly.

Fragile economy forces Iran's top leaders to form alliance
ANKARA | By Parisa Hafezi

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani waves as he stands next to a portrait of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, after he registered for February's election of the Assembly of Experts, the clerical body that chooses the supreme leader, at Interior Ministry in Tehran...
Reuters/Raheb Homavandi/TIMA

President Hassan Rouhani and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei may have sharply ideological differences but the fragility of Iran's economy has forced them into an uneasy alliance at least for the time being.

In the past, the two powerful figures had offered contrasting visions for the Iranian economy with the conservative Khamenei calling for self-reliance and the pragmatist Rouhani urging cooperation with the world.

But now, after having achieved a nuclear deal with the West, both leaders have a vested interest in setting aside their differences to secure their political futures and turn the economy round.

"Rouhani's political career depends on this issue. If he fails to improve the economy, he will lose the leader's support and will turn into a lame-duck president," said a reformist former official, who is close to Rouhani. "His failure in the economic field, will lead to his political failure."

While allaying the fears of Iranian hard-liners against any detente with the West, Khamenei cautiously backed Rouhani's efforts to reach a nuclear deal with the United States and other major powers in 2015, aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in return for lifting crippling sanctions.

Rouhani will be protected by Khamenei against his hard-line critics so long as he is taking steps to improve the economy a senior official said, on condition of anonymity.

But Khamenei's patience is being strained because of a lack of tangible economic benefits since sanctions were lifted in January. Some U.S. restrictions on Tehran remain in place.

"For the leader Khamenei, the most important issue is to safeguard the interests of the nation and the country. That is why he backed the president's nuclear policy," said an Iranian diplomat close to Khamenei's office.

HONEYMOON THREATENED

Some point out that Khamenei's protection of Rouhani will stretch only as far as there is an economic dividend. "But now, the question is what was the use of reaching a deal if it cannot improve people's lives," the diplomat said.

Khamenei's core support comes from lower-income people, who have socially, politically and economically invested in the Islamic Republic, analysts say, but this group has yet to benefit from the easing of sanctions.

"Hard-liners are concerned that they might even lose the backing of their core supporters who were against any rapprochement with the West but remained silent because of Khamenei's support of the deal," political analyst Hamid Farahvashian said.

Rouhani is in a constant power struggle with the country’s influential hard-liners and has even faced accusations of undermining pillars of the 1979 Islamic revolution, including "hostility towards the United States".

This makes the alliance with Khamenei and his protection more valuable than ever to Rouhani's survival.

"Rouhani is passing through a very sensitive period of his political career," said the first official. "It does not matter whether his allies did well in the elections in February."

Rouhani’s chances for re-election in 2017 are far from guaranteed despite a strong showing for his allies in February parliamentary polls and for a clerical body with the power to appoint or dismiss the supreme leader.

Iranians will vote in a run-off parliamentary election on Friday for 68 of parliament's 290 seats, which will determine the makeup of the assembly as the February vote failed to give a majority. The current parliament is dominated by Rouhani's hard-line rivals.

The onus is on the president to attract investors, justify Khamenei's political investment in him and to deliver economic prosperity to ordinary Iranians who have suffered for decades because of the sanctions imposed over the nuclear program.

Pressure mounted on the Iranian leadership when U.S. and European restrictions drastically cut oil exports that are the engine of Iran's economy, and social unrest threatened.

“Rouhani’s failure to improve Iran’s economy will be end of his honeymoon (with the leader)," said a security official. "The establishment is well aware of dangers of economic hardship and shortcomings."


INVEST IN IRAN

Iran's hard-liners have criticized Rouhani's economic policies and the Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has demanded a bigger role in the economy, seen as a challenge to a government trying to attract foreign investment and open Iran's markets.

Any increase in IRGC economic involvement could scare away foreign investors, as many of its members and front companies remain under U.S. sanctions.

The IRGC runs a powerful business empire as well as being in charge of elite armed forces. Its profitable economic interests could be threatened by more competition from abroad.

But Khamenei is convinced of the value of foreign partners.

“Iran is in desperate need of foreign investment ... I cannot recall the leader meeting any visiting European leader in the past years but he met (Italian Prime Minister Matteo) Renzi in April,” said Tehran-based analyst Saeed Leylaz.

“The unprecedented meeting had a message, which was invest in Iran,” he added.

In domestic politics, Rouhani cannot always be sure of the support of Khamenei, who since succeeding Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, has ensured that no group gains enough power to challenge his authority.

Rouhani's popularity has alarmed Khamenei's hard-line allies, who are wary of losing their status within Iran's complex power structure. They have blocked, for example, Rouhani's attempts to relax social restrictions.

The president's second term will very much depend on Khameinei's blessing and this in turn will depend heavily on a favorable economic outcome.

Some analysts said that there are still very limited chances for more social and political freedom in Iran, where hard-liners control the judiciary, security forces and state media, despite Rouhani's successes.

“Rouhani is a regime insider," a pro-reform politician said. "He is clever enough to avoid confrontation with the leader.”

Leylaz disagreed, saying Rouhani might adopt more aggressive policies if re-elected. "But of course it might cause a backlash, bringing more limitations."

(Writing by Parisa Hafezi; editing by Peter Millership and Giles Elgood)
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-politics-idUSKCN0XP2LY

 

[Aramagedon]

Wahhabi delirium...

 

[Taimoor Khan]

Just remembered what happened to libya. Qaddafi did the excatly same thing. Hand over his country nuke program in promise of "acceptance" in West. He did have the opportunity to shake hands with few European leaders and some photo ops. Few months down the line, same European leaders were dropping bombs on his arse.

Some mothers do eva them, and in muslim ummah, we got plenty. No body wants to learn.

 

[Norwegian]

Epic fail.

The author is actually calling South Korea an evil illogical regime. And being compared to South Korea should be actually seen as an acknowledgement and sign of rejuvenated Iran.

Arab logic. Cant differentiate between north and south Korea

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Your salvation is in your submission.

 

[jamal18]

Iraq was a country that complied. They allowed in western inspectors, bowed and grovelled.

As the western troops were massing for invasion, Iraq was destroying its own missiles that the west said were 'breaking the convention'.

A million Iraqis starved to death in the sanctions before the war, then the invasion, and god knows how many dead since then.

Yes boys, comply with the west, and trust them.

 

[Nilgiri]

So much fearful butthurt about Iran from the usual quarters

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Iraq was a country that complied. They allowed in western inspectors, bowed and grovelled.

As the western troops were massing for invasion, Iraq was destroying its own missiles that the west said were 'breaking the convention'.

A million Iraqis starved to death in the sanctions before the war, then the invasion, and god knows how many dead since then.

Yes boys, comply with the west, and trust them.

They need to submit to a neighbor country to expect this to see the light.

 

[alarabi]

I believe the Iranian politicians are politically stupid. We remember when Saudi gov executed Alnemer. Iran could have use this case for its favor, but because they have lack of understanding politics they sat Saudi embassy on fire, which only served Saudi position 100% to show the world how failed and chaos Iran is. This situation illustrates how does Iran deal with current regional conflicts and how they've dealt with their nuclear program too. They signed an agreement with western countries that only assures Istekbar jahani to not have a nuclear bomb but concurrently it doesn't grant Iran to get all its frozen money and to be accepted from many countries. With the current oil prices, I can say that Iran is still on sanction that will never be lifted by just making a deal with the US and some European countries.

 

[Serpentine]

They need to submit to a neighbor country to expect this to see the light.

So now you are dreaming about Iran 'submitting' to Saudi Arabia only by reading a junk pile of words on A-Awsat? Interesting.

Sometimes I wonder, why Gulf countries & Co don't have any renowned scientists or scholars and don't contribute anything to the world except oil and fundamentalism or terrorism, and with posts like this, I get closer to my answer. Because most of you people have delusions beyond belief, staying in the 7th century, no matter how many modern skyscrapers you build.

 

[Nilgiri]

no matter how many modern skyscrapers you build.

oil money + foreign expertise/management + slave labour.

Iran is a whole different system of dedicated foundation building from the ground up.

 

[Norwegian]

Your salvation is in your submission.

Submission? You mean Islam?

They need to submit to a neighbor country to expect this to see the light.

OH now I see. Stupid.

So now you are dreaming about Iran 'submitting' to Saudi Arabia only by reading a junk pile of words on A-Awsat? Interesting.

Sometimes I wonder, why Gulf countries & Co don't have any renowned scientists or scholars and don't contribute anything to the world except oil and fundamentalism or terrorism, and with posts like this, I get closer to my answer. Because most of you people have delusions beyond belief, staying in the 7th century, no matter how many modern skyscrapers you build.

"they may have modern weapons but their civilization is two thousand years old"
American ambassador to Japan after Pearl Harbor incident

Change weapons with skyscrapers and two thousands with 1400