Tackling Terry in South Waziristan
Usman Ansari
So, it seems the military has finally moved into
Terrys (the Talibans) lair 
, in South Waziristan, and after a few weeks it all seems good news. The army have secured the heights around the battlefield, Terry is running everywhere he is encountered, and the boys will be home in time for Christmas. Well, not quite. Not least because I suspect Christmas doesnt mean much at all to an awful lot of people taking part in the fighting in South Waziristan bar the odd Christian Pakistani soldier.
The Pakistani military knows from bitter experience that this is the easy part. In fact it knows that Terry may already have largely fled leaving only cannon fodder behind. That is the standard operational procedure for Terry after all, when theyre faced with someone who can fight back. Hakimullah Mehsud, the new leader of the TTP
(after the tragic and untimely demise of killer, liar, and general low life brigand - it seems this is all the Mehsud tribe have ever been since time immemorial; a bane on their neighbours and everyone else - Baituallah Mehsud at the hands of drone fired missile whilst he was getting a rooftop leg massage from his latest wife), has done a Scarlet Pimpernel, and is nowhere to be found, yet, (we live in hope). So have much of the rest of Terrys leadership. The big fish seem to have disappeared. They could equally have slipped into North Waziristan or have made across the virtually unguarded frontier into Afghanistan.
There are a number of reasons why this is entirely feasible. There was plenty of time taken in the build-up to the operation to allow them to do so, and even now the Pakistan Army is woefully under-equipped in terms of helicopters. Helicopters, as we know, allow for the rapid transport of men and material to and around the battlefield enabling any escape routes to be cut off. Though the army seized heights and passes in the area of operations I suspect it may not have been done quickly enough for this very reason, lack of helicopters.
The mainstay of the Pakistani battlefield transport effort is the Mi-17 Hip, which is a fairly powerful and highly versatile machine. People who claim Russian/Soviet products are not up to scratch or inferior to Western equipment really need to get acquainted with it. It may not be as sophisticated, but it is rugged and reliable. Its whats required under the circumstances. In fact more of them are required. A few have come from rather unusual sources. The Americans have provided a few, and the latest have come from the Czech Republic.
Theyre not the only helicopters available to the army, but they are the only ones in the class available in numbers. The overall status of the fleet of IAR-330L Puma helicopters, which are nowhere near as capable as the Mi-17s, but would still be useful nonetheless, is rather uncertain. They were supposed to be being returned to operational status with the help of Eurocopter, but that hasnt happened yet. Instead it still looks like the ones flying are in the air due to the cannibalization of the rest of the fleet. If money was no object then it would do the army well to enter into an agreement with the South Africans to upgrade them Oryx standard, but thats simply not the case. If money were no object I rather fancy the Pakistanis would be buying more Mi-17s. The Pumas have served for decades and have had a hard life.
The present reality is that Pakistan is trying to get the Americans to provide more helicopters through military aid, and would like Chinooks, Blackhawks, and Apaches.
I guess Pakistan is not the only one with this wish list, because helicopters of all types, especially medium/heavy transports, are in a shortage worldwide, (well, for those who actually want to use them that is; plenty of countries - even those which are supposed to be part of the Western effort in Afghanistan - are sitting on sizable fleets but are busy malingering, shirking, and generally falling over themselves to avoid combat of any kind whatsoever, whilst still making up the numbers on paper, but cowardice and malingering are just national character traits which simply wont ever change for some cheese eating surrender monkeys).
Pakistan will have to make do therefore with its small numbers of Mi-17s and Bell 412s, and even smaller number of hard-pressed AH-1F Cobras for rotary wing close air support.
Those of you with eyes like hawks will also have noticed that surface transport around the battlefield is a rather more mixed picture. Sadly, the mainstay here seems to be the Mitsubishi Triton/L200 pick-up/ute. It moves men and material, but with the favourite weapon of Terry, the one that causes the most casualties in Afghanistan, being the humble mine, or the much feared IED, its dreadfully inadequate and offers no protection at all. A lot of effort has been expended in giving Western troops a vehicle better equipped to survive an IED explosion than a Snatch Land Rover Defender. Mine resistant vehicles cost a pretty penny though, and seeing Pakistan has no money, it wont be getting any unless theyre donated. As mine resistant vehicles are in desperate shortage and are required for Western troops though, no one should hold their breath.
Arguably however, if there were more helicopters available in Afghanistan, if those nations with large numbers sat doing nothing in Europe realised there was a war on in which everyone must play their part, not so many mine resistant vehicles would be required in the first place. I guess the same goes for Pakistan, but South Waziristan is part of Pakistan, and as of yet, the picture isnt as bad as Afghanistan, so there would still have to be a fair degree of movement by road anyway.
Other less expensive options could be considered. I wrote a while ago about Pakistan requiring some 8x8 or even 10x10 vehicles which would suffice admirably here. It transpires, there has been such a requirement since the early 1980s, but nothing has been done about it. Had there been I guess we wouldnt be seeing so many Tritons rumbling about. So theyre going to be in use for the duration of the operation I fear.
I cant really say how long this operation will last. I dont think anyone can. Terry may simply be drawing the army into fighting a costly guerrilla type conflict which the army isnt best equipped to handle. If the ground captured is to be kept free of Terry however, the army will have to stay, and if the army stays and it wants to deny South Waziristan to Terry in the long run, then there will have to be a massive development programme to ensure jobs and opportunities are provided to the locals to wean them away from Terrys malign influence. They have to be given a stake in the system.
That should have happened a long time ago, but successive governments just put it in the too hard basket, and left a lot of the Frontier area to its own devices. That was a mistake, as we now know. Basic education, infrastructure, health, womens rights, small and medium enterprise support, plus a whole lot more needs to be addressed in the entire Tribal Areas. For this there would have to be rule of law, and the tribes will have to accept the supremacy of national law over their tribal laws. This wont be easy as some would stand to lose pretty much everything not to mention their iron grip over their underlings. Its much the same in Balochistan, but if they want development, (which they sorely need), then theyll have to accept the power and authority of the state.
The first step to all of this is the armys operation to weed Terry out, and that will take time to do properly. Therefore, I think we should get used to the army being in South Waziristan for a long time yet.
Usman Ansari
