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October Surprise: my prediction for war

LOL at the Bangladeshi border jumper so humiliated by China's ASBM :lol:

This kind of personal attack does not add to the debate at all.

Remember if you put up threads like this, expect to be able to justify your predictions with logic and reason. Blind nationalism and patriotism is not enough.

So far I see very little or no arguments being put here as to how China will have anymore than the tiniest chance of taking Taiwan if the US decided to defend it with all it's military might.
 
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This kind of personal attack does not add to the debate at all.

Remember if you put up threads like this, expect to be able to justify your predictions with logic and reason. Blind nationalism and patriotism is not enough.

So far I see very little or no arguments being put here as to how China will have anymore than the tiniest chance of taking Taiwan if the US decided to defend it with all it's military might.
LOL at the Bangladeshi refugee deluding himself after a humiliation from China's ASBM:omghaha:
 
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Due to the balance of industrial production and geography, any attack by foreign aggressors will have it assume the role of Imperial Japan in WW2 at best.

Remember that Imperial Japan started out with 25 carriers, 10 battleships, 43 cruisers and 150+ destroyers. They all ended up at the bottom.

That is the power of industrial capability.
The war will end after at least three carriers are severely damaged or sunk and all of US bases in Japan, Korea and Guam are bombed out. Then the world will completely split into two blocs. The US will try to seal off the Straits of Malacca to Chinese shipping from the Indian Ocean side but at the same time it will barely be able to contain domestic unrest at home. The result will be a war of attrition like WW1 -- see who can hang on longer.
 
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Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

I think the main reason for a military invasion is not due your assertions.

China has spent enormous efforts over the last few years to marginalize Taiwan. Getting countries in the UN not to recognize Taiwan for this or that. Making foreign companies stop listing Taiwan as a country. Cozying up to the EU making sure China's trade is more important than Taiwan's. etc

However lately the rosy picture has been falling apart. Huawei stuff, Covid stuff, Hong Kong stuff.

They may act now before things sour in countries like Africa and Asia and when a vote to condemn a Taiwan invasion comes up they wont have many friends.
 
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After a successful invasion of Taiwan by China, what will happen to all the US supplied military equipment, including the naval and air crafts, that Taiwan has.

I believe the US will try to take a lot of this equipment back from China, at least that's what they will wish for.
 
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After a successful invasion of Taiwan by China, what will happen to all the US supplied military equipment, including the naval and air crafts, that Taiwan has.

I believe the US will try to take a lot of this equipment back from China, at least that's what they will wish for.

It can be sold as scrap metal because the entire 1970s Taiwanese navy will be sunk.

The aircraft are a bit more modern but it will be hard not to blow them all up or to have Taiwanese pilots bury them in the jungle to avoid having to take off.
 
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US
The war will end after at least three carriers are severely damaged or sunk and all of US bases in Japan, Korea and Guam are bombed out. Then the world will completely split into two blocs. The US will try to seal off the Straits of Malacca to Chinese shipping from the Indian Ocean side but at the same time it will barely be able to contain domestic unrest at home. The result will be a war of attrition like WW1 -- see who can hang on longer.
If war does breakout, the US will retaliate.

What kind or how much of losses are you expecting on the Chinese side?

@Beast @LKJ86
 
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Taiwan did not have the courage to declare itself as an independent state in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s. During these decades the gap between US Navy and Airforce and Chinese counterparts are big. Now the gap has been closing very fast. For the war to happen Taiwan needs to take that bold step first, the US can give that push. If nothing happens the only thing we can expect is to see the gap getting smaller and smaller as Chinese military capabilities are growing exponentially. US retaliate? Is US going to retaliate when China has become so powerful in 2030s, 2040s? Is is extremely stupid strategy for the US to wait isn't it? The longer the war is being postponed the outcome would look bleaker for the US. So what does this tell us? The US isn't going to get involved the longer the war is being postponed. By 2040s China has added a couple of extra Aircraft Carriers, helicopter Carriers, increased a large number of state of the art destroyers, cruisers, latest generation submarines, added more j-20 and having stealth bombers in service. We might be seeing even latest generation of DF series. Good Lord is this the US strategy?
 
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Taiwan did not have the courage to declare itself as an independent state in the 70s, 80s, 90s, 00s. During these decades the gap between US Navy and Airforce and Chinese counterparts are big. Now the gap has been closing very fast. For the war to happen Taiwan needs to take that bold step first, the US can give that push. If nothing happens the only thing we can expect is to see the gap getting smaller and smaller as Chinese military capabilities are growing exponentially. US retaliate? Is US going to retaliate when China has become so powerful in 2030s, 2040s? Is is extremely stupid strategy for the US to wait isn't it? The longer the war is being postponed the outcome would look bleaker for the US. So what does this tell us? The US isn't going to get involved the longer the war is being postponed. By 2040s China has added a couple of extra Aircraft Carriers, helicopter Carriers, increased a large number of state of the art destroyers, cruisers, latest generation submarines, added more j-20 and having stealth bombers in service. We might be seeing even latest generation of DF series. Good Lord is this the US strategy?


No, at those times Taiwan was not really interested in being independent and moving away from the "One-China" policy.

As time has passed, this has meant that those who identify with China have mainly died out and most Taiwanese now think of themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

You are right that the window of opportunity for US to be able to successfully defend Taiwan against Chinese invasion may be as little as 10 years.

From a military viewpoint it makes sense for the US to encourage Taiwan to declare Independence now and then dare China to do anything about it. CCP will then have to weigh up the cost of saving face by attacking Taiwan and suffering a catastrophic defeat if US gets involved, or CCP does nothing and gets totally humiliated and Taiwan breaks away peacefully.
 
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Same as when US released the virUS on China and waited months for China to make a pseudo-mistake in January. trump is instigating regional problems for China to make wrong move. The HK move was the best move for China because it was the fall of Saigon - a void of CiA operatives closed and made normal again.

US wants war and the destruction of the rise of China, same with the Asian financial crisis of the rise of some Asian states in the 90s.

America’s political and military mission in the post-cold-war era is to ensure that no rival superpower is allowed to emerge in Western Europe, Asia or the territories of the former Soviet Union..The classified document makes the case for a world dominated by one superpower whose position can be perpetuated by constructive behavior and sufficient military might to deter any nation or group of nations from challenging American primacy. US Department of Defense, The New York Times, March, 1992.
 
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No, at those times Taiwan was not really interested in being independent and moving away from the "One-China" policy.

As time has passed, this has meant that those who identify with China have mainly died out and most Taiwanese now think of themselves as Taiwanese and not Chinese.

You are right that the window of opportunity for US to be able to successfully defend Taiwan against Chinese invasion may be as little as 10 years.

From a military viewpoint it makes sense for the US to encourage Taiwan to declare Independence now and then dare China to do anything about it. CCP will then have to weigh up the cost of saving face by attacking Taiwan and suffering a catastrophic defeat if US gets involved, or CCP does nothing and gets totally humiliated and Taiwan breaks away peacefully.

You need to deeply understand Human Being character. All politics are temporary.
 
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India will get sandwiched between China and Pakistan. And finally Bangladesh will grow.
 
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Certain people in this thread are pretending that China doesn't have nuclear attack submarines with infinite range and global reach.
jOq5yhW.jpg


Because SSN pictures are rare and hull numbers don't exist, it is impossible to tell you how many there are. But you don't need large numbers, nor do you need hundreds (or thousands) of bombs. You just need a small number of cruise missiles to take down a high value target like a major bridge, dam, or this.
4GUC0a1.png


BeiDou-3 achieved global coverage earlier this year.
 
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PLA’s J-20 stealth fighter deployment near Taiwan stokes fear, delivers warning to separatists


A J-20 stealth fighter jet of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was reportedly spotted soaring through the skies above an East China city only 500 kilometers away from the island of Taiwan, sparking fear on the island and delivering a powerful warning to Taiwan separatists and the US, as the island's media reported on Saturday that Taiwan warplanes were only minutes away from the J-20's kill range if it flew toward the island.

The J-20 holds a generation gap advantage over all of Taiwan's warplanes, and its involvement in a potential PLA operation on Taiwan would result in a one-sided PLA victory in the air, analysts said on Saturday.

Citing an unverified video widely circulated on social media platform Sina Weibo since Friday, Taiwan media reported on Saturday that a J-20 was spotted flying low near the urban district of Quzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province. The report said it was likely in the process of landing at an air force base in the city.

It is possible that the J-20 is attached to the Wang Hai Air Group based in Wuhu, East China's Anhui Province, and is being forward-deployed to Quzhou, Taiwan media speculated.

Quzhou is only 500 kilometers away from Taiwan. If a J-20 takes off from Quzhou and heads toward the island, it would only take the PLA aircraft seven to eight minutes before Taiwan warplanes enter its air-to-air missile kill range, and 15 to 20 minutes before it could be right above Taipei, Taiwan media said.

The PLA Eastern Theater Command has announced aerial and naval exercises in the Taiwan Straits since September 18; however, it has not yet released further details, including if it had deployed any J-20 for the drills.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's defense authority has been releasing tracking reports on PLA warplane sorties near the island amid the PLA's ongoing exercises, but they did not reveal any J-20 activities.

Thanks to the stealth capabilities of the J-20, even if it did take part in the exercises, Taiwan would not be able to spot it anyway, a Chinese mainland military expert told the Global Times on Saturday on the condition of anonymity.

The J-20 is a fourth (or fifth, under Western classification) generation fighter jet comparable with the US' F-22. It has strong capabilities in terms of stealth, situational awareness, supermaneuverability and supersonic speed, the expert said, noting that Taiwan's most advanced aircraft is the F-16, developed by the US, which is one generation obsolete compared to the J-20, and the J-20 can single-handedly take on multiple of them.

In a recent PLA combat exercise, a pilot and his teammate flying "a new type of warplane" faced interceptions from multiple directions, taking down 17 opposition fighter jets without receiving any damage itself, despite being heavily outnumbered, the PLA Daily reported earlier this month.

Many media outlets speculated this new warplane was the J-20, and it demonstrated the stealth aircraft's absolute superiority over its previous-generation counterparts.

With the J-20 already in service by the PLA Eastern Theater Command, if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, it would very likely be deployed in combat, even though it would be an overkill, analysts predicted.

J-20 can take down not only hostile fighters, but also key strategic targets like hostile command centers, significantly contributing to the seizure of air superiority in combat, the expert said.

Chinese mainland military analysts said the recent J-20 sighting is a powerful warning to Taiwan separatists and the US amid the current cross-Straits situation. The J-20 flew very low near an urban area in daylight, as if it wanted to show off its presence, rather than to secretly conduct the mission at night, they noted.

Taking advantage of its ghostly defense-penetration capabilities, the J-20 can easily launch decapitation strikes on Taiwan secessionist leaders with air-to-ground weapons, or can intercept any foreign intervention attempts with air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, analysts said.

If the Taiwan authority and the US continue to stir up trouble and challenge China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the J-20 could fly through Taiwan island, further showcasing its superiority over the island's military, analysts said.


The plans are being revealed step by step. On October 10, US Secretary of State Pompeo will attend the National Day celebrations in Taipei at the invitation of Tsai Ing-wen. Then PLAAF and PLARF will launch massive air and missile strikes against political and military targets in Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen will probably be decapitated in these airstrikes. If Taiwan does not surrender, then an amphibious attack will be launched.
 
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