October Surprise: my prediction for war

[Hamartia Antidote]

Or a single strike here..100 Million people..definitely a top target.

 

[powastick]

I think this is possible, US already stationed troops personal in Taiwan already. While Trump might recognize Taiwan to gain support since it is very popular on both spectrum of US politics.

 

[Surya 1]

3 carriers is not half.

US has level 11 supercarriers and lots of smaller ones that can take STVOL fighters like Harriers and F-35B.

Dozens of LA/Sea Wolf/Virginia Class SSNs will mercilessly destroy the PLAAN if it dares venture out of port.

Attack Japanese soil and the JN will link up with USN to carry out a blockade of China.

I am afraid the thread starter has no comprehension just how powerful the USN is. The JN is just the icing on the cake.

There was a study which reveals that China will have to sacrifice 40 pc of its navy to sink one aircraft carrier.

 

[UKBengali]

There was a study which reveals that China will have to sacrifice 40 pc of its navy to sink one aircraft carrier.

Yeah, it would lead to almost total fighting decimation for PLAAN and PLAAF if US intervened with it’s full capability.

Remember when you count in the 10 “assault ships”,US actually has 21 aircraft carriers.The new America Class “assault ships” can carry up to 20-24 F-35Bs and so they are actually better than any other countries aircraft carriers.

PLA would almost certainly suffer catastrophic losses if the Taiwanese, helped by the US, put up stiff resistance on the landing beaches.

Despite China’s public statements I have serious doubts whether the CPC will risk everything by attacking Taiwan, even if Taiwan declared independence.

 

[UKBengali]

PLA’s J-20 stealth fighter deployment near Taiwan stokes fear, delivers warning to separatists

PLA’s J-20 stealth fighter deployment near Taiwan stokes fear, delivers warning to separatists - Global Times

www.globaltimes.cn

A J-20 stealth fighter jet of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) was reportedly spotted soaring through the skies above an East China city only 500 kilometers away from the island of Taiwan, sparking fear on the island and delivering a powerful warning to Taiwan separatists and the US, as the island's media reported on Saturday that Taiwan warplanes were only minutes away from the J-20's kill range if it flew toward the island.

The J-20 holds a generation gap advantage over all of Taiwan's warplanes, and its involvement in a potential PLA operation on Taiwan would result in a one-sided PLA victory in the air, analysts said on Saturday.

Citing an unverified video widely circulated on social media platform Sina Weibo since Friday, Taiwan media reported on Saturday that a J-20 was spotted flying low near the urban district of Quzhou, East China's Zhejiang Province. The report said it was likely in the process of landing at an air force base in the city.

It is possible that the J-20 is attached to the Wang Hai Air Group based in Wuhu, East China's Anhui Province, and is being forward-deployed to Quzhou, Taiwan media speculated.

Quzhou is only 500 kilometers away from Taiwan. If a J-20 takes off from Quzhou and heads toward the island, it would only take the PLA aircraft seven to eight minutes before Taiwan warplanes enter its air-to-air missile kill range, and 15 to 20 minutes before it could be right above Taipei, Taiwan media said.

The PLA Eastern Theater Command has announced aerial and naval exercises in the Taiwan Straits since September 18; however, it has not yet released further details, including if it had deployed any J-20 for the drills.

Meanwhile, Taiwan's defense authority has been releasing tracking reports on PLA warplane sorties near the island amid the PLA's ongoing exercises, but they did not reveal any J-20 activities.

Thanks to the stealth capabilities of the J-20, even if it did take part in the exercises, Taiwan would not be able to spot it anyway, a Chinese mainland military expert told the Global Times on Saturday on the condition of anonymity.

The J-20 is a fourth (or fifth, under Western classification) generation fighter jet comparable with the US' F-22. It has strong capabilities in terms of stealth, situational awareness, supermaneuverability and supersonic speed, the expert said, noting that Taiwan's most advanced aircraft is the F-16, developed by the US, which is one generation obsolete compared to the J-20, and the J-20 can single-handedly take on multiple of them.

In a recent PLA combat exercise, a pilot and his teammate flying "a new type of warplane" faced interceptions from multiple directions, taking down 17 opposition fighter jets without receiving any damage itself, despite being heavily outnumbered, the PLA Daily reported earlier this month.

Many media outlets speculated this new warplane was the J-20, and it demonstrated the stealth aircraft's absolute superiority over its previous-generation counterparts.

With the J-20 already in service by the PLA Eastern Theater Command, if a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, it would very likely be deployed in combat, even though it would be an overkill, analysts predicted.

J-20 can take down not only hostile fighters, but also key strategic targets like hostile command centers, significantly contributing to the seizure of air superiority in combat, the expert said.

Chinese mainland military analysts said the recent J-20 sighting is a powerful warning to Taiwan separatists and the US amid the current cross-Straits situation. The J-20 flew very low near an urban area in daylight, as if it wanted to show off its presence, rather than to secretly conduct the mission at night, they noted.

Taking advantage of its ghostly defense-penetration capabilities, the J-20 can easily launch decapitation strikes on Taiwan secessionist leaders with air-to-ground weapons, or can intercept any foreign intervention attempts with air-to-air and air-to-surface weapons, analysts said.

If the Taiwan authority and the US continue to stir up trouble and challenge China's national sovereignty and territorial integrity, the J-20 could fly through Taiwan island, further showcasing its superiority over the island's military, analysts said.


The plans are being revealed step by step. On October 10, US Secretary of State Pompeo will attend the National Day celebrations in Taipei at the invitation of Tsai Ing-wen. Then PLAAF and PLARF will launch massive air and missile strikes against political and military targets in Taiwan. Tsai Ing-wen will probably be decapitated in these airstrikes. If Taiwan does not surrender, then an amphibious attack will be launched.

How would a J-20 with inferior 4th gen engines going to fight effectively with F-22s and F-35s that both have 5th gen engines.
Also the F-35 has the world’s best radar and has been successful in jamming the upgraded F-22 radar even.

Come back when J-20 has a proper 5th gen engine.

 

[Viet]

There is no "blinking" here. It is mere posturing in a US election year, on behalf of the USA. So far as China is concerned the Taiwan crisis is a calculated media distraction ( to the detriment of India) from the REAL events brewing in Ladakh and the CPEC. In a real war the naval assets are not shown on prime time TV on 50 " HDTV. For China letting India THINK that a war in Taiwan is imminent ( with the Indian media falling for the bait) is hugely advantageous.
It is surprising how little the Western media is covering the Sino-Indian tensions. Even when they do they seem to play it even without a noticeable pro-India bias. Even solidly India leaning channels such as BBC have started debunking Indian media ( note "media" not government) claims such as the capture of Mount Kailash ( an expertly photoshopped charade).
However China's game is also intensely dangerous because wars happen precisely because one nation thinks others will come to its aid and it can afford to fight a more powerful adversary. This is exactly what happened to Poland in the when it defied Germany under assurances from Britain and France that they were standing with it. Poland took the extreme step of massacring ethnic Germans inside the country to root out any German sympathizers, an action that brought a savage response from Germany when Poland collapsed and was occupied .
In fact such nations are merely bait in the larger scheme of things. Poland had to be sacrificed because a World War HAD to be fought to neutralize Germany forever as a world power. The dynamics of war take on a momentum of their own, fueled by hyper-nationalism and propaganda.

This time is different. Not only America and India are the main enemies. China is surrounded by enemies. To the north Japan, in the center Taiwan, in the south Vietnam, on the eastern front India, overall in all theatres the US army, supported by NATO and non Nato allies. Chinese have no friends. They will fight alone. Pakistan will remain neutral during the war. I see no hope for the chinese.

I expect Xi Jingping will go nuts. He will increase military budget to $1 trillion. He will bring death and destruction to China.

 

[Feng Leng]

How would a J-20 with inferior 4th gen engines going to fight effectively with F-22s and F-35s that both have 5th gen engines.
Also the F-35 has the world’s best radar and has been successful in jamming the upgraded F-22 radar even.

Come back when J-20 has a proper 5th gen engine.

J-20 is far stealthier than F-22 and F-35. F-35 in particular has terrible maneuverability and won't survive any WVR engagement. Both F-22 and F-35 will be destroyed while they are in their hangars by ballistic missiles because only bases in Japan and Korea are close enough to host them.

 

[UKBengali]

J-20 is far stealthier than F-22 and F-35. F-35 in particular has terrible maneuverability and won't survive any WVR engagement. Both F-22 and F-35 will be destroyed while they are in their hangars by ballistic missiles because only bases in Japan and Korea are close enough to host them.

F-22 is stealthier than J-20, especially from the rear. It would dominate the weak-engined J-20 in aerodynamic performance.
F-35 maybe not so but it’s radar could jam the hell out of the J-20 radar and kill J-20 with AMRAAM shots.

Hangar - Doubt the missiles that get through ballistic missile defences will be accurate enough to hit them.
Remember US will go ham on China if it escalates by attacking it’s bases in Japan or Korea.
US can then start taking out Chinese power stations on the coasts with stealthy cruise missile strikes.


Edit - Both F-35B and F-35C can fly off US aircraft carriers and "assault ships".

 

[Ali_Baba]

Yeah, it would lead to almost total fighting decimation for PLAAN and PLAAF if US intervened with it’s full capability.

Remember when you count in the 10 “assault ships”,US actually has 21 aircraft carriers.The new America Class “assault ships” can carry up to 20-24 F-35Bs and so they are actually better than any other countries aircraft carriers.

PLA would almost certainly suffer catastrophic losses if the Taiwanese, helped by the US, put up stiff resistance on the landing beaches.

Despite China’s public statements I have serious doubts whether the CPC will risk everything by attacking Taiwan, even if Taiwan declared independence.

China does not need to invade Taiwan. China just needs to destroy Taiwans infrastructure and industry and bring then to their economic knees.. that is when Taiwan will need to surrender. China will make the conflict last for years, and have the west lose interest, while it progressively degrades Taiwans capabilities. Taiwan does not have the economic might to sustain a sustained war with China....

China will not engage the USA unless USA forces itself into the fight. The Chinese will wait for the Americans to make the move on that.

Technology has moved on a lot in the last decade, and the "current" modern value of an aircraft carrier is highly suspect. Any conflict that takes place, will validate if aircraft carriers have a future or not, any more.. will they have value or go the way of the dreadnoughts?

 

[925boy]

I think this is possible, US already stationed troops personal in Taiwan already. While Trump might recognize Taiwan to gain support since it is very popular on both spectrum of US politics.

Taiwan being popular on both sides "of the spectrum" in US is not the same thing as both sides siding with Taiwan in the case of actual military conflict with China. I can already smell it on AMericans that Americans cant and wont go to war for any other country(OR ISLAND) that isnt directly linked to US interests, and other than semiconductors, what else is in Taiwan that is worth US troops dying for? cuz US will have to mobilize for Taiwan the way it will have to mobilize for an Iran war- with everything, so Americans will die, many of them, and there is no money for such a large war, so no, it wont happen...US willl keep selling weapons to Taiwan, adding sanctions on some China officials, and keep the USN presence in SCS, THATS IT.

 

[925boy]

F-22 is stealthier than J-20, especially from the rear. It would dominate the weak-engined J-20 in aerodynamic performance.
F-35 maybe not so but it’s radar could jam the hell out of the J-20 radar and kill J-20 with AMRAAM shots.

Hangar - Doubt the missiles that get through ballistic missile defences will be accurate enough to hit them.
Remember US will go ham on China if it escalates by attacking it’s bases in Japan or Korea.
US can then start taking out Chinese power stations on the coasts with stealthy cruise missile strikes.

you boast on behalf of US so much, its so cute, its kind of naive. Where will all those US figher jets land and take off from? there is not 1 base they can operate from that will be close enough to CHina that China cant destroy.you are completely oblivious of the proximity advantage China has from such a large land mass and being right near the action - SCS or Taiwan...US has to transport ALOT of equipment close to CHina, and CHina can bomb all of them, whether they are in SOUth Korea, or Japan, Chinese military can hit them and destroy them.

 

[925boy]

F-22 is stealthier than J-20, especially from the rear. It would dominate the weak-engined J-20 in aerodynamic performance.
F-35 maybe not so but it’s radar could jam the hell out of the J-20 radar and kill J-20 with AMRAAM shots.

Hangar - Doubt the missiles that get through ballistic missile defences will be accurate enough to hit them.
Remember US will go ham on China if it escalates by attacking it’s bases in Japan or Korea.
US can then start taking out Chinese power stations on the coasts with stealthy cruise missile strikes.

do you knwo why i know you are wrong here? because once again, your logic relies on a flawed military logic that has failed US and ISrael till today- expecting to win the war from the air. where will US ground troops come in???? from thin air?? you think USAF and USN can degrade China alone??? LMAO..i think you are actually in denial of how weak the US is now..the US is a bully taht relies on deterrence, but all their adversaries know the US cant fight and beat all of them..time is not on US's side..US hasnt won a war in a long time. Their loss against Taliban told me US cant win a war against China, Russia or IRan. its jut not reallistically possible- too many soldiers will be required and many will die, and US doesnt have money, so the US economy will collapse, and any US president that takes US into a losing war now will get removed.

 

[TheTallGuy]

Ok, Lets say the prediction is true...so i have a scenario for the southern front.

I request you hear me out.

lets say war on water starts in south china sea...PRC and US engages in short sharp engagement. India on back on US moves ahead and inflict defeat on PLA in Ladakh and capture swaths of lands...which actually surprises PLA. once the This situation develops it forces Pakistan Armed forces to move in..

end result will be ...any ones guess!

 

[khail007]

Sometime between October 10 and October 22, the US will announce an adjustment in the One China Policy and upgrade its diplomatic relations with Taiwan to ambassador level. Within 24 hours, PLAAF will penetrate Taiwan airspace and commence an air war over Taiwan. The US will deploy at least one aircraft carrier to an area around 1000 km east of Taiwan to try to defend it. Fighter jets / bombers from Japanese bases and Guam will also join the war. Meanwhile, at least two aircraft carriers will travel from the Indian Ocean through the Straits of Malacca and launch an attack on China's South China Sea islands.

Within a few days of fighting, at least three US aircraft carriers will be heavily damaged by missile strikes and many US bases in Japan as well as Guam will be bombed. PLA will land on Taiwan within 3 days from the start of hostilities and the Taiwan will be declared fully liberated within one week.

During the Sino-US War of 2020, India will launch an attack in Ladakh on PLA but will suffer more than 100,000 casualties within one week from the PLA artillery and rocket fire. Then a 2.5 front war scenario will push them out from Leh and Kashmir Valley by November.

Trump will use the conflict as an excuse to postpone the November election indefinitely.

USA will never dare to attack China alone. Still USA is licking the wounds from humiliated defeat in Vietnam.
If USA will able to form some coalition for support than may be ... may be, they will think of it but not able to implement - most of the EU do not trust upon US with Trump as head of state.

 

[Feng Leng]

F-22 is stealthier than J-20, especially from the rear. It would dominate the weak-engined J-20 in aerodynamic performance.
F-35 maybe not so but it’s radar could jam the hell out of the J-20 radar and kill J-20 with AMRAAM shots.

Hangar - Doubt the missiles that get through ballistic missile defences will be accurate enough to hit them.

LOL the F-22 isn't even a proper stealth fighter. We track it easily.

Remember US will go ham on China if it escalates by attacking it’s bases in Japan or Korea.
US can then start taking out Chinese power stations on the coasts with stealthy cruise missile strikes.


Edit - Both F-35B and F-35C can fly off US aircraft carriers and "assault ships".

LOL we will strike US bases in Korea and Japan preemptively. What can the US do after that? They have no more bases and their aircraft carriers will be damaged / sunk by ASBM. All they can do is huff and puff and issue warnings.