October Surprise: my prediction for war

[gambit]

You seem to be under the impression that the US can sink PLAN ships (like as if PLAN will just sit there waiting to be sunk) but China can't sink USN ships.

Is this well researched theory based on a video game or something?

You should ask the opposite. The last time the PLAAF was in combat was in the 1950s. Since then, China have NOT been a contributor to general aviation, let alone military aviation, and I do not mean building aircrafts but actually contribute to theories that advances aviation.

So when was the last time the PLAN was in combat? What video game or something that would support the idea that the PLAN can take on the USN?

 

[LeGenD]

I don't think so. China also possesses the "merciless conventional strikes" capability.

How many Chinese ballistic missile strikes you reckon are needed to cause the US irreparable damage?

An indication of US limitation was realised a few years back when the US could not handle North Korean threats to strike the US.

Within 24 hours, the US established direct line of communications with North Korea after decades followed by a Trump-Kim summit to clam the situation down.

Refer to the following thread regarding DPRK factor: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-...rop-80-nuclear-weapons-on-north-korea.685343/

Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles did not help turn the tide of any war fought in recent history. The newfound infatuation with MaRV technology is also misplaced but fans will not understand until next big war is fought and scrutinized in discourses. American (USN) destroyers and cruisers are well-equipped to intercept both ballistic and cruise missiles by the way.

Fighting a conventional war with USA is a vastly different experience/challenge than fighting one with India to begin with. Fighting both at the same time? Some members have drawn much inspiration from video games lately, and need to take a break.

 

[HaMoTZeMaS]

You should ask the opposite. The last time the PLAAF was in combat was in the 1950s. Since then, China have NOT been a contributor to general aviation, let alone military aviation, and I do not mean building aircrafts but actually contribute to theories that advances aviation.

So when was the last time the PLAN was in combat? What video game or something that would support the idea that the PLAN can take on the USN?

Dear,
You are seeing history in very short span of 100 years and concluding about China.

Broaden your view and realise that China is the only Nation still on earth in its pure cultural and traditional form who survived the ages.
They have not fight any war in last half century or so..But Remember they have centuries of experience of fighting wars Even when there was not a concept of america

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

You should ask the opposite. The last time the PLAAF was in combat was in the 1950s. Since then, China have NOT been a contributor to general aviation, let alone military aviation, and I do not mean building aircrafts but actually contribute to theories that advances aviation.

So when was the last time the PLAN was in combat? What video game or something that would support the idea that the PLAN can take on the USN?

They say the more you sweat during peace time, the less you will bleed during war time. Is that true?

 

[Feng Leng]

J-20 entered Taiwan airspace to rehearse a decapitation strike on Tsai Ing-wen!

 

[UKBengali]

You should ask the opposite. The last time the PLAAF was in combat was in the 1950s. Since then, China have NOT been a contributor to general aviation, let alone military aviation, and I do not mean building aircrafts but actually contribute to theories that advances aviation.

So when was the last time the PLAN was in combat? What video game or something that would support the idea that the PLAN can take on the USN?

A lot of posters are not aware that US actually has no less than 21 aircraft carriers, when you count the 10 "assault ships" of USN.

The new America class "assault ships" have been extensively drilled to work both in the traditional assault ship role but also as an aircraft carrier, holding 20-24 F-35Bs. Just these ships will be better than any other nation's aircraft carriers bar the UK's QE class when that finally achieves IOC in 2021 - even that is a question mark as only the US will have access to the full capabilities of the F-35s.

Look at it another way, all the navies of the world start steaming to take Hawaii from the Western Pacific, the USN will not even need it's full strength to destroy the rest of the world's fleet.

I think the problem is that a lot of people just have no idea how astronomically more powerful the USN is over other Navies like the Russian Navy, PLAAN, Royal Navy(UK) and the French Navy.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Then use WW II. Threads like this are stupid.

First, this is a military oriented forum. While this does not disqualify anyone who never served, lack of relevant knowledge and experience immediately put one's opinions on precarious grounds.

Now...

Opining on fleets requires the knowledge and experience of an admiral.

Opining on ships requires the knowledge and experience of a captain.

Opining on corps of armies requires the knowledge and experience of a general.

Opining on air strikes requires the knowledge and experience of a wing commander.

Opining on troops requires the knowledge and experience of a platoon/squad sergeant.

A virus have practically zero relations on military affairs as each crisis have its own designated department/ministry headed by a leader appropriately informed of responsibilities and capabilities available.

WW2 is irrelevant since it was 75 years ago with totally different technology and demographics. In the time since, technology has improved greatly, with the average person's data consumption going from ~KB/day to ~GB/day, population has more than doubled, and the world more interconnected than before. Those who still think like WW2 or Cold War days will find themselves obsoleted and outcompeted.

I evaluate equipment and supplies all the time at work. When we need a new supplier, I have 2 very simple criteria before I even look at the specs: 1. is their website good looking and easy to use? 2. is their sales staff easy to reach and will they get back to me within 24 hours? Silly? How do I know their products are shit if I don't even look at datasheets? They might have the best product in the world but just don't pay attention to the little stuff. But in my experience, a company that doesn't give a shit about their customers usually cares little about their product quality or technical support. If they can't be bothered to respond quickly to a sales prospect imagine how shit they'll be when I need their help, after they have my money.

Similarly, if a government cannot even deal with a small problem, how can it solve a big problem? US throws money at healthcare, are Americans the healthiest? If not, then either the money is wasted to graft or there's not enough individual resolve. Either way, doesn't matter. Both lack of resolve and corruption in spending is a general problem.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

Refer to the following thread regarding DPRK factor: https://defence.pk/pdf/threads/the-...rop-80-nuclear-weapons-on-north-korea.685343/

Conventionally-armed ballistic missiles did not help turn the tide of any war fought in recent history. The newfound infatuation with MaRV technology is also misplaced but fans will not understand until next big war is fought and scrutinized in discourses. American (USN) destroyers and cruisers are well-equipped to intercept both ballistic and cruise missiles by the way.

Fighting a conventional war with USA is a vastly different experience/challenge than fighting one with India to begin with. Fighting both at the same time? Some members have drawn much inspiration from video games lately, and need to take a break.

There has been a single conflict where conventional ballistic missiles were fired: Iraq vs. US in 1991. Iraq had 1960s SCUDs.

A sample of 1 is meaningless especially with such a large gap in capability.

When Taiwan is liberated, it will shock the world like Desert Storm did. Pakistani generals will be thankful they picked the right side, and they will be learning from the PLA. The entire doctrine of the Pakistani military will be rewritten. India might be up first though for a 1962 rematch. Pakistani generals might learn something here too.

 

[khansaheeb]

Ops fav song

wtf

 

[LeGenD]

There has been a single conflict where conventional ballistic missiles were fired: Iraq vs. US in 1991. Iraq had 1960s SCUDs.

A sample of 1 is meaningless especially with such a large gap in capability.

When Taiwan is liberated, it will shock the world like Desert Storm did. Pakistani generals will be thankful they picked the right side, and they will be learning from the PLA. The entire doctrine of the Pakistani military will be rewritten. India might be up first though for a 1962 rematch. Pakistani generals might learn something here too.

Ballistic Missiles were first put to use in a modern war back in the 1940s starting with V-2. Since then there are numerous episodes of use of ballistic missiles in different conflicts to limited effect. Most recent cases of uses are from Iran in Syria and Iraq respectively. I am simply (and correctly) pointing out that conventionally-armed ballistic missiles will not be sufficient to help turn tide in 'modern warfare' irrespective of the MaRV factor (1980s concept/capability). I happen to agree with the notion that ballistic Missiles are best employed in strategic capacity - American perspective.

China can punish/harass Taiwan with volley after volley of ballistic missiles from a distance but YOU need every tool at your disposal to conquer Taiwan (desired objective). The latter is not heavily armed in comparison to China (Numbers game), and much of its defenses are contingent upon 'measures' on the ground to make a potential invasion costly for the invading force (Terrain factor). This also depend upon how many in Taiwan are willing to resist invasion (Human factor). This is also assuming that USA does not intervene to thwart Chinese efforts for the needful.

Your best shot at taking Taiwan is probably in November when American Presidential elections will be taking place and their attention will be diverted to the cause. Why wait further?

Pakistan have learned much from its conflicts with India over the course of years and War On Terror since 2001 - I am not worried about Pakistani preparations for another potential conflict in the region (God forbid). If China succeed in Taiwan - this will be a case study worth studying of-course.

 

[tower9]

The Sino American War will be the first time the US has fought a peer power since WW2. In the last one or twoy years, Beijing has ramped up nuclear warhead production (~1000 warheads for now, I think) but this should have been done five or ten years ago. Already, it is difficult for American decisionmakers to get their heads around the idea that China has a nuclear arsenal of comparable size. This weakens the deterrence value and encourages opportunism.

China only has 300 warheads dude. The US has 5000.

 

[khansaheeb]

China only has 300 warheads dude. The US has 5000.

That's because the US wants to destroy the world and China only wants to target Japan and US.

 

[tower9]

Once Taiwan is reunified, submarines based in Taiwan directly access the Pacific Ocean depths. Then there is no geographic barrier to PLA nuclear ballistic missiles submarines showing up off the coast of California.

Do you know how vast the Pacific is? Do you know that Hawaii and Guam exist? China will only fight to take Taiwan. It won’t go further than that.

 

[Feng Leng]

China only has 300 warheads dude.

That's just for dumb American sheeple to believe.

Do you know how vast the Pacific is? Do you know that Hawaii and Guam exist? China will only fight to take Taiwan. It won’t go further than that.

LOL the Pacific is vast / un-crossable for China but not vast / un-crossable for US?

 

[CAPRICORN-88]

How the PLAAN going to get past the USN to get near US coast?

They won't make it to Hawaii before their ships are at the bottom of the Pacific Ocean.

The same way USN ship sailed past Chinese islands in the SCS or PLAN navy sailed next to India in the Indian Ocean or Britain in the English Channel.