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North Korea Defence Forum

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North Korea WILL collapse.

When? :lol:

On the contrary, during the Korean War the Chinese army were not as mascular like that yet Americans and the rest of the allies fled all the way back to South Korea. Lets not forget how your people engaged your new papa and fought a bloody long war while they were starving. So i wouldn't be so hasty to judge the situation based on the perception of having bigger biceps automatically means victory.

Yankees can't even stop China militarising the SCS islands, Russia taking back Crimea, North Korea testing nukes.

Nobody gives a crap about the Yankees now, that's why they can't do a damn thing to stop any of these 'red lines'.
 
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:enjoy: the essence is working
More like a hamster running in its wheel.

There is a joke in the US Army: The value of a presentation is inversely proportional to how many times Sun Tzu is quoted.

It is not that the US military places no value on Sun Tzu but that we know where Sun Tzu really belongs: the philosophical/political realm.

In science, mathematicians are often called the 'technicians' of physics. The word 'technician' here is meant to be philosophical, not actual working job title. The physicist come up with a guess and the mathematician tries to support that guess, or not. In another perspective, the mathematician can also be called the engineer of physics.

Where Sun Tzu is the philosopher and political strategist for war, Carl von Clausewitz is the engineer/technician for war. Generally speaking, Sun Tzu analyzes and advises for the causes and motivations for war while von Clausewitz analyzes the environment and tactics IN a war. There is a great difference between 'for' and 'in a'. Sun Tzu asks why, von Clausewitz says how. Inevitably, because politics and war are intricately tied to each other, both men have overlapping commentaries in both areas, but in close study, they are distinct in their works.

When there is a discrepancy in value in the philosophical and political aspects and the technical proficiency of warfare, one is bound to lose that war. Look at the Vietnam War for an excellent example. The US lacked the solid philosophical/political foundation on why it should be in that war despite possessing great tools and sound tactics to conduct war. Now look at WW II, specifically the war between the US and Imperial Japan. Both countries were strong in their philosophical/political convictions on why they should go to war, but the US had far superior national resources to create instruments of war and how to exploit those instruments to their fullest.

Right now, there is no greater engineer/technician on warfare than US. And judging on how the US used our soft power, even though not always perfectly, we are quite in-depth on the philosophy and politics of inter-state relations prior to any war as well.

So for your China, no, the essence of Sun Tzu have not been working for the past couple hundred yrs, and Mao with his Cultural Revolution have not helped China in understanding her past. You think that just because we are hesitant with actions regarding China's bullying in Asia, we are weak in determination and spirit. You violated Sun Tzu's greatest commandment without realizing you did it.
 
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What you fail to see is that the US has always created an environment for the justification of initiating wars even though many soldiers would be asking themselves the question "why am i here?" Your pal jhungary certainly did questioned himself when he was in Iraq. As for Vietnam it was a Cold War issue between the West and Communists, the US government didn't lack political agenda. US couldn't win the war because of the Chinese guerilla tactics the Vietcongs had adopted. Same applies to the Korean War, US failed to see China would enter the Korean War because Americans thought they were superior. Look at what happened to Georgia in 2008, when Russian troops entered where were the Americans? What happened to the defense treaty?

When Russian and Chinese direct interests are at stake both our countries do NOT hesitate to enter war mode. American policy makers and generals know this all too well. Therefor despite your claim of mastering political will and philosophy behind warfare by the US i disagree with this point of view. Iraq, Libya are not next to Russia or China therefor it can create chaos in the Middle East. As for Syria, the US failed to predict Russian involvement this time.

The past 200 hundred years were not deficiencies or shortages of Sun Tzu's philosophy but the failures from the Qing Dynasty rulers who were too arrogant. So despite of extensive knowledge in applying both different doctrines by the Americans, US knows when not to cross the red lines. All i can say is keep on watching how many tests DPRK are gonna carry out while all US can do is complain. Americans tend to look up as if their noses were bleeding when Russians or Chinese are directly involved in crisis within our borders.

@gambit
 
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This is provocative, the author advocates that China annex North Korea.
China with its economic size and strength can easily absorb NK, whereby solving the problem. Kim Jong-un is getting more crazy each passing day.
China should also sign a peace treaty with JP and SK too, to prevent further proliferation of nuclear weapons.


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Cutting the Gordian knot of North Korea’s nuclear adventurism
09/11/2016 02:03 pm ET
Bruce Fein, Constitutional Lawyer and Author

The Constitution’s foreign policy of invincible self-defense (with no “indispensable nation” braggadocio) should inform our strategy to cut the Gordian knot to ending North Korea’s nuclear adventurism.

We should play the China card.

China would agree to annex North Korea, remove Kim Jong-un from power, and to shutter its nuclear and missile programs. In exchange, we would agree to cease our military opposition to China in the South China Sea and within its traditional spheres of influence. That would include terminating our defense treaties with South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines; and, returning the tens of thousands of American troops now stationed or training in these countries back to the United States with pay raises to protect our citizens from aggression. (In 1980, the United States terminated the 1955 Taiwan Defense Treaty. China has not attacked Taiwan in the ensuing 36 years despite its de facto independence).

The United States policy of invincible self-defense means no more courageous Captain Humayun Khans sent abroad to die for self-interested strangers without a crumb of allegiance to the United States. Our soldiers’ lives are too precious to risk crucifixion on a multi-trillion dollar military-industrial-counterterrorism complex craving the adolescent thrill of world domination.

At present, China props up North Korea despite its nuclear and missile programs because it deflects the United States military away from itself. China’s fears of United States aggression are not contrived. During the Korean War, we flirted with crossing the Yalu River and dropping nuclear bombs on the Chinese mainland. China dispatched three million military personnel to Korea in response. At present, we are challenging China in the air and on the sea over the Spratly and Paracel Islands. We are building an advanced THADD ballistic missile defense system in South Korea. Our Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter, has touted the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) as worth an aircraft carrier against China.

China has no more inherent interest in North Korea’s possession of nuclear weapons than we have in a nuclear-armed Mexico or Canada. But China needs security incentives to justify annexing North Korea to end its nuclear ambitions and threat to the United States. Those incentives include terminating our defense commitments to China’s neighbors and removing tens of thousands of American soldiers stationed there.

That would not be unreasonable. Contemplate how we would react if China negotiated a defense treaty with Mexico featuring 30,000 Chinese troops stationed near our border. When a similar alliance between German and Mexico was proposed in the famous “Zimmerman” telegram during World War I, we erupted in fury.

South Korea and Japan might withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (as North Korea did in 2003) and develop nuclear arsenals if we ended our defense commitments to them. The two nations might conclude that nuclear weapons would be necessary to deter Chinese aggression, and, in the case of South Korea, a second edition of Japan’s 1910-1945 colonization.

Expanding the number of nuclear weapons states by adding Japan and South Korea but subtracting North Korea would be worrisome but justifiable. Nuclear weapons are inherently risky. But the status quo alternative would leave North Korea’s growing nuclear arsenal undemolished and undisturbed.

Our longstanding policy of escalating economic or diplomatic sanctions against North Korea for its nuclear recklessness has been an “incomplete success,” to borrow President Jimmy Carter’s euphemism for his failed rescue mission for American hostages in Iran. Last week, North Korea conducted its fifth and most powerful nuclear test—ending any doubt that it has mastered the fundamentals of detonating nuclear weapons. Military experts opine that by 2020, North Korea will probably have acquired the skills for a reliable intercontinental ballistic missile topped by a nuclear warhead; and, have accumulated enough nuclear material to build up to 100 warheads.

We would obviously be safer with nuclear weapons in the hands of friendly nations like South Korea or Japan as opposed to enemy nations like North Korea. Moreover, we have acquiesced in the nuclear weapons arsenals of Pakistan and India whose interests are more divergent from ours than are South Korea’s or Japan’s.

In sum, risking a nuclear-armed South Korea or Japan would be a small price to pay for playing the China card to end forever North Korea’s nuclear threat. Do not be dissuaded by the predictable barking of the military-industrial-counterterrorism complex which is leading us to war with China.
 
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It's common knowledge North Korea is heavily dependent on China for its survival.

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| Sat Sep 10, 2016 3:03pm IST
Key China border city brushes off latest North Korea nuclear test

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By Sue-Lin Wong | DANDONG, CHINA

Tourists and the odd train made their way across China's main border point with North Korea on Saturday, with residents largely brushing off Pyongyang's fifth and largest nuclear test and little sign of stepped up security or scrutiny.

China, Pyongyang's main diplomatic ally, is key in any effort to rein in North Korea's nuclear programme. It has been infuriated by repeated nuclear and missile tests and has signed up to increasingly tough United Nations sanctions.

While China says it is fully committed to enforcing the sanctions, it has also made clear it does not think ordinary North Koreans should be made to suffer, and has long worried that totally cutting off Pyongyang would lead to the country's collapse, sending waves of refugees its way.

China's border city of Dandong, through which as much as 80 percent of the bilateral trade is conducted, would be the most obvious place for Beijing to make its displeasure with North Korea felt by slowing the flow of goods, even temporarily.

Residents said there had been no such reaction, even though the main bridge connecting the two sides had been closed on and off for repairs in the past few days, but not totally shut.

One Dandong businessman, who asked to be identified by his family name of Lu, said for him North Korea held no fascination - it was simply a place to trade with, though he did admit to being nervous about possible radiation.

"There's still huge demand for ordinary goods, like food and clothes," he said. "There was a train this morning, one yesterday, one the day before. Things haven't stopped."

At the main border post, trucks lined up to take goods into North Korea on Monday, the port not being opened for routine trade on weekends.

"It's business as usual, it's no different from any other day," said a 24-year-old woman who exports clothes to North Korea, declining to give her name.

Tourists had to walk across though, because of the repairs.

Shops around the border post and train station are packed with goods obviously aimed at the North Korean market like machinery, with Korean script featured prominently.

Some residents said they hadn't even heard of the latest test, which has not received top billing in Chinese state media.

"Trade has been increasing each year between North Korea and China. North Koreans rely on us for generators, natural resources, food, all sorts of things," said Lu Shilei, 34, who runs tours to North Korea.

"I don't think the sanctions have had a huge impact, they're only limited to a few products connected to the nuclear programme. There's still lots of trade either way for common goods that ordinary people use."

China's Foreign Ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether border checks had been stepped up.


BRIGHT LIGHTS, NO LIGHTS

At night, Dandong's bright lights stand in marked contrast to the darkness that looms from the North Korean side of the Yalu River which separates them, drawing a clear line between a booming China and impoverished North Korea.

Dandong has deep emotional ties to North Korea due to the 1950-53 Korean War, in which Mao Zedong's forces fought alongside North Korea against a U.S.-lead UN coalition.

The "Broken Bridge", bombed in half by U.S. aircraft in that war, is a major tourist draw, sitting in the centre of town next to the "Friendship Bridge" over which much of today's bilateral trade is conducted. There is also a large war museum.

Trade between Beijing and Pyongyang has always been opaque, with experts believing much of the trade and aid China sends North Korea is off books and so difficult to track, making a true assessment of commercial ties close to impossible.

Officially, bilateral trade in the first seven months of the year fell 5.6 percent year-on-year, with China's imports falling a larger 8.7 percent.

Business between the two is dwarfed by trade between China and capitalist South Korea, which was worth 908 billion yuan ($135.97 billion) in the January to July period, compared to just 17.7 billion yuan between China and North Korea.

Wang Quan, general manager of a trading firm that sells trucks, cars and buses to North Korea, said overall trade had suffered slightly because of sanctions, and also China's own slowing economy, but overall he saw no major impact.

"It's just business as usual each time North Korea conducts a nuclear test. Nothing really changes for a small business like ours."

On Friday, China's Foreign Ministry would not be drawn on whether China would support further sanctions, saying only that it has fulfilled previous U.N. resolutions and would continue to take a responsible and constructive attitude towards talks at the Security Council.

China is also angry at Washington and Seoul for a decision to place an advanced anti-missile system in South Korea, saying it threatens China's security and won't help bring North Korea back to the negotiating table.

Cai Jian, an expert on North Korea at Shanghai's Fudan University, said China had always been very careful in having targeted sanctions, aimed directly at the nuclear and missile programmes.

"We don't put sanctions on the ordinary people, as that would affect the stability of the whole country," Cai said. "I don't think there will be any extra measures."

($1 = 6.6778 Chinese yuan renminbi)

(Additional reporting by Joseph Campbell, and Beijing newsroom; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Mike Collett-White)
 
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From bricks to smuggled wigs: China's border trade with North Korea
Mon Sep 12, 2016 6:38pm EDT

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Trucks are parked in the yard of the customs office in China's Dandong, Liaoning province, as their drivers wait to cross Friendship Bridge to North Korea's Sinuiju September 12, 2016. REUTERS.

By Sue-Lin Wong | DANDONG, CHINA

China's main border post with reclusive North Korea was packed with trucks carrying everything from bricks to exhaust pipes on Monday, as it re-opened for business for the first time since Pyongyang angered the world with its fifth nuclear test.

China, North Korea's most important diplomatic ally, condemned the test - the North's largest nuclear explosion to date - but has been ambivalent about whether it will support further sanctions against its impoverished neighbor.

In Dandong, though which about three-quarters of the country's trade with North Korea flows, some truck drivers said routine checks had been stepped up since Friday's test, although others said it was pretty much business as usual.

"I bring across all kinds of things, products for ordinary people," said a truck driver who gave his family name as Wang, hauling a cargo of vehicle exhaust pipes. "Business hasn't been bad, we're pretty busy."

Wang was among the Chinese drivers waiting to cross the narrow "Friendship Bridge" across the Yalu River into North Korea as it re-opened to traffic following the weekend and the North's National Day holiday on Friday.

Trucks loaded with wooden frames, construction materials, steel, aluminum, rubber, machinery, bricks and even small bulldozers queued in line at the single-lane border checkpoint.

China has signed up to tough UN sanctions on North Korea designed to stymie its nuclear and ballistic missile programs, but has long been wary of cutting off trade completely lest it harm ordinary North Koreans and precipitate a collapse of its neighbor.

Driver Ying Ren, 54, said everything taken across the Dandong border would be inspected.

"They check us for everything, they can even tell if we have two bottles of beer. They don't care if we have beer, but they can tell that we have it," he said.

"After they imposed sanctions goods like chemicals were banned from being taken across because they might be used for the nuclear bomb."


BANNED GOODS

Current U.N. sanctions target luxury goods and materials that could be used for North Korea's banned nuclear and ballistic missile programs. They also aim to restrict the North's access to hard currency to fund those programs.

Another driver, also surnamed Wang, said border checks appeared slower after the latest nuclear test.

"The checks really stepped up after the sanctions were introduced earlier this year," he said, referring to a further round of sanctions approved after North Korea's fourth nuclear test in January.

"Now they check when we load the trucks and they check again when we go through customs. They give me a list so I can see that they know everything I have on board. But trade in goods for ordinary people will continue indefinitely. How can it not? We don't want North Korean refugees flooding into China."

While South Korea and the United States are pushing for further sanctions after Friday's latest test, backed by Britain and France, the remaining veto powers on the U.N. Security Council, China and Russia, have been less clear.

Much of the economic development that has raised living standards for ordinary North Koreans in recent years is derived from cheap, Chinese imports sold in semi-legal private markets that have sprung up around the country.

Even Western nations are reluctant to impose sanctions that interfere with this day-to-day trade, say analysts, because they hope the emergence of a growing consumer class in North Korea will ultimately undermine leader Kim Jong-un's government.

Driver Liang Hengshun said he preferred not to linger in North Korea.

"They're a very closed society, we aren't allowed to use our phones, we can't listen to the radio, they'll take away anything that isn't written in Korean script like Chinese newspapers in our trucks," he said.

Smuggling was still quite common, he added, although much of it had more to do with turning a profit than beating sanctions.

"The tour buses smuggle in wigs, eyelash extensions, small things like that won't be caught," Liang said.

"If you want to buy a wig through formal channels it costs 1,000 yuan ($150) or so, but if you get one of these black market ones it'll only be 2-300 yuan and the driver is happy because he can make some money too," he said.

"We don't usually smuggle those kinds of things on our big trucks, we leave that for the tour buses."

($1 = 6.6789 Chinese yuan renminbi)


(Reporting by Sue-Lin Wong in Dandong, China; Additional reporting by James Pearson in Seoul; Writing by Ben Blanchard; Editing by Alex Richardson)
 
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China urges US to shoulder responsibility in North Korean nuclear issue
(People's Daily Online) 13:42, September 13, 2016

The essence of the North Korean nuclear issue is the conflict between the U.S. and North Korea, and the U.S. should shoulder its due responsibility, said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying at a press conference on Sept. 12. Hua’s statement refuted the remarks made by U.S. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter that China is responsible for the recent nuclear test by North Korea.

Hua pointed out that the essence of the North Korean nuclear issue is a conflict between the U.S. and North Korea. She therefore suggested that the U.S. review the issue carefully and seriously consider practical solutions.

As for how to ease the conflict, Hua urged the U.S. to shoulder its due responsibilities. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, and as a neighboring country to the Korean Peninsula, China has spared no efforts to find a proper solution to the issue so as to safeguard regional peace and stability, as well as to maintain the authority of the international nuclear non-proliferation system.

However, it has now been proven that pressure and resistance only serve to escalate the conflict to a deadlock. It is now time for the directly related parties to step up and make their own efforts to address the root causes of the conflict, Hua said.
“China insists that measures to balance the security concerns of each party and achieve long-term stability on the peninsula must be sought through dialogue that addresses root causes,” she emphasized.

The spokesperson stressed again that each party should examine the big picture, take prudent actions and make a true contribution to the non-proliferation and stability of the Korean Peninsula.
 
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China supports further reaction to DPRK's latest nuclear test
2016-09-20 10:23 | Xinhua | Editor: Mo Hong'e


China supports the UN Security Council to make further reaction to the latest nuclear test conducted by the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said in New York on Monday.

At the same time, China expects all relevant parties to refrain from any action that may lead to escalation of tensions, and opposes the United States' deployment of the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea, Li said as he met with U.S. President Barack Obama.

Li reiterated China's position on the nuclear issue of the Korean Peninsula. "China is committed to denuclearization of the peninsula, to maintaining peace and stability there and to settling the issue through dialogue," he said.

Both Li and Obama are in New York for high-level meetings of the UN General Assembly.
 
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Not seeing a military solution to the Korean question anytime soon, if not happening at all. The PLA is designed to defend China's sovereignty, nothing more, nothing less. As China's influence grows and its economy matures I personally won't be surprised to see a more 'proactive' PLA in the future but an outright invasion of a sovereign country? Nein.
 
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Sat Oct 15, 2016 | 8:15pm EDT
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-korea-north-usa-idUSKBN12F0S2

By Matt Spetalnick | WASHINGTON

The U.S. military detected a failed North Korean test launch of an intermediate ballistic missile, the Pentagon said on Saturday.

The test-firing was the latest in a series conducted by North Korea in violation of United Nations resolutions, drawing a fresh U.S. vow to take its concerns to the world body and seek to hold North Korea "accountable for these actions."

The U.S. Strategic Command's systems detected that the Musudan missile failed in a launch conducted near North Korea's northwestern city of Kusong, the Pentagon said in a statement.


It provided no details on what went wrong but said the launch never posed a threat to North America.

"We strongly condemn this and North Korea's other recent missile tests," said U.S. Navy Commander Gary Ross, a Pentagon spokesman. "Our commitment to the defense of our allies, including the Republic of Korea and Japan, in the face of these threats, is ironclad. We remain prepared to defend ourselves and our allies from any attack or provocation.”

South Korea's military said early on Sunday that North Korea fired what it believed was a Musudan missile at 0333 GMT on Saturday (11:33 p.m. EDT on Friday) but it failed immediately after launch. It did not elaborate on the reason for the failure.

"The North's ballistic missile launch is a clear violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions and we strongly condemn the North's illegal act of provocation," the South's office of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in a statement.

Ross said the United States called on North Korea to "refrain from actions that further raise tensions in the region."

The top U.S. diplomat for East Asia said late last month that Washington would speed up deployment of the U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system to South Korea given the pace of North Korea's missile tests, and it would be stationed there "as soon as possible."

South Korea and the United States have agreed to deploy the anti-missile system in the South to counter the North's threat. China, the North's main diplomatic ally, has opposed the move saying it would destabilize regional security balance, but Washington has said the system was not aimed at China.


Daniel Russel, assistant secretary of state for East Asia, also told a congressional hearing the United States was in discussions with international partners, including the European Union, to deny North Korea access to international banking infrastructure after its recent nuclear and missile tests.

Pyongyang is already under heavy international sanctions over its missile and nuclear tests. North Korea conducted its fifth nuclear blast on Sept. 9.

(Additional reporting by Ju-min Park and Jack Kim in Seoul; Editing by Matthew Lewis and Richard Chang)
 
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