New strategic alliance between Saudi Arabia and Turkey, to overthrow Assad

[ResurgentIran]

Ok lets try not turn this into a troll/flame thread. Huge news.
Bring your opinion what kind of impact this new alliance will have on events in Syria and the region at large.
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Turkey, Saudi Arabia Join Forces to Help Anti-Assad Rebels
APNewsBreak: Turkey confirms alliance with Saudi Arabia to help rebels fighting Syria's Assad.

Turkey, Saudi Arabia Join Forces to Help Anti-Assad Rebels - US News

 

[500]

Bring your opinion what kind of impact this new alliance will have on events in Syria and the region at large.

The deal was signed in early March and it already had impact: Idlib in end of march, Jisr ash Shughur in end of April.

 

[ResurgentIran]

The deal was signed in early March and it already had impact: Idlib in end of march, Jisr ash Shughur in end of April.

What longer term impact do you believe this will have?

 

[Falcon29]

Question is ally to do what? To increase support to opposition? Or to just state your political goals? Turkey nor Saudi Arabia had any hand in Idlib offensive, that was work of rebels. If Turkey and Saudi Arabia want to make a difference then there needs to be concrete steps taken. So far that hasn't happened, and this article quotes one official statement that Saudi Arabia is past its war on Muslim Brotherhood and has more important priorities now. This doesn't equate to any alliance to me. And alliance to oust Assad would mean it's going to happen quickly, otherwise the war will prolong which means there is no actual support.

The only thing that makes sense is they don't care about international criticism anymore. Since every Sunni group is considered extremist, might as well support them then. From the perspective of Saudi Arabia and Turkey.

The deal was signed in early March and it already had impact: Idlib in end of march, Jisr ash Shughur in end of April.

Are you being serious? Can you specify what exact impact they had? They had absolutely zero hand in Idlib.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Question is ally to do what? To increase support to opposition? Or to just state your political goals? Turkey nor Saudi Arabia had any hand in Idlib offensive, that was work of rebels. If Turkey and Saudi Arabia want to make a difference then there needs to be concrete steps taken. So far that hasn't happened, and this article quotes one official statement that Saudi Arabia is past its war on Muslim Brotherhood and has more important priorities now. This doesn't equate to any alliance to me. And alliance to oust Assad would mean it's going to happen quickly, otherwise the war will prolong which means there is no actual support.

I disagree. The deal between Saudi Arabia and Turkey helped the opposition groups become more cooperative and cohesive. Before there were a lot of internal strike and killings/competition between different factions of the opposition to Assad, because Turkey and Saudi Arabia had competing views and goals (although the common goal being the overthrow of Assad).
For now, it seems they have put those differences away and united in the common goal, which is to remove Assad.

 

[Falcon29]

I disagree. The deal between Saudi Arabia and Turkey helped the opposition groups become more cooperative and cohesive. Before there were a lot of internal strike and killings/competition between different factions of the opposition to Assad, because Turkey and Saudi Arabia had competing views and goals (although the common goal being the overthrow of Assad).
For now, it seems they have put those differences away and united in the common goal, which is to remove Assad.

Turkey and Saudi Arabia had no involvement in that. It was a rebel effort, which I agree was badly needed. It took them 4 years to realize though, which is pathetic. And even if we want to believe they mediated agreements between rebels, no logistical support to support them. So it is still their work, not any nations. And if that's what we're going to call a pact...it's no pact if they're not going to do anything besides watch and take credit for rebel advances. If they provide them with more weapons than they take credit. Until then, I don't see what they're contributing recently. A pact to oust Assad means they must be arranging concrete steps in forms of all kinds of support and possibly a timetable for their objectives. I have not see any details regarding that. It will still be difficult to remove Assad if not steps are taken. Which will anger pro-opposition public base, since all these rumors will not become fruitful.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Turkey and Saudi Arabia had no involvement in that. It was a rebel effort, which I agree was badly needed. It took them 4 years to realize though, which is pathetic. And even if we want to believe they mediated agreements between rebels, no logistical support to support them. So it is still their work, not any nations. And if that's what we're going to call a pact...it's no pact if they're not going to do anything besides watch and take credit for rebel advances. If they provide them with more weapons than they take credit. Until then, I don't see what they're contributing recently. A pact to oust Assad means they must be arranging concrete steps in forms of all kinds of support and possibly a timetable for their objectives. I have not see any details regarding that. It will still be difficult to remove Assad if not steps are taken. Which will anger pro-opposition public base, since all these rumors will not become fruitful.

Im assuming they mediated between the rebel groups to not work against each other, and for now just focus on the main and common goal.
That in itself probably had big impact, and may have been a contributing factor to the recent setbacks for the Syrian army in Idlib and elsewhere in the periphery.

We may see more aggressive front to Assad from now on, in form of Saudi Arabia and Turkey providing more arms and money to the rebels. We may even see attempts for a now no-fly zone down the line and direct confrontation against the SAA, but we will have to wait and see.

 

[Falcon29]

They probably mediated between the rebel groups to not work against each other, and for now just focus on the main and common goal.

I doubt they had much influence in that, it was something that opposition realized and was discussing for a long time. So I still don't see what Turkey or Saudi Arabia have to do with anything. They are both afraid of arming the rebels and it's been a while since any arms shipments from KSA or Qatar made it(unless someone can prove otherwise). Why aren't they? That could be a number of reasons, one being US pressure. The other that they fear aftermath themselves. Nobody in Arab world wants Assad toppled any more, this was case with Saudi Arabia as well. At least until death of King Abdullah, the new King is the only one that has interest in ousting Assad. All Arab nations disagree with him though.

So the situation will not change, it will be prolonged war of attrition and stalemate. Unless there is some miraculous motivation amongst rebels.

It gets on my nerves when Turkey and Saudi Arabia play with peoples emotions with these rumors. Syria doesn't affect me personally, this is not something personal. But it upsets pro-opposition Syrians as they know nothing is being done on ground. What upset me personally is that the Arab word is so unreliable these days. When they keep making promises or playing with peoples emotions in the end we know they don't do absolutely nothing, it just wastes people time.

 

[Aramagedon]

More terror

 

[ResurgentIran]

I doubt they had much influence in that, it was something that opposition realized and was discussing for a long time. So I still don't see what Turkey or Saudi Arabia have to do with anything. They are both afraid of arming the rebels and it's been a while since any arms shipments from KSA or Qatar made it(unless someone can prove otherwise). Why aren't they? That could be a number of reasons, one being US pressure. The other that they fear aftermath themselves. Nobody in Arab world wants Assad toppled any more, this was case with Saudi Arabia as well. At least until death of King Abdullah, the new King is the only one that has interest in ousting Assad. All Arab nations disagree with him though.

So the situation will not change, it will be prolonged war of attrition and stalemate. Unless there is some miraculous motivation amongst rebels.

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I do agree though that the new Saudi princes, seem more aggressive/militant in foreign policy.

So how have you been doing Hazzy jan?

 

[Falcon29]

I guess we will have to agree to disagree. I do agree though that the new Saudi princes, seem more aggressive/militant in foreign policy.

So how have you been doing Hazzy jan?

Been doing great. Finally having free time. Looking forward to a fun summer.

Wbu?

PS, if this is a serious effort. And they gain a city like Latakia/Hama, it would mean Hezbollah needs to go all in or Iran needs to provide troops. Which I believe is the goal here, they want rebels to make gains near nuclear deadline. So when there is sanctions relief Iran will pour that money into Syria to assist SAA. Therefore they keep Iran and Arab world invested in the conflict and prolong it another 5 years minimum. It's a game which Turkey and Saudi Arabia are aware of(my personal opinion). And if the idiot leadership amongst rebels don't realize that and rely on either nation then they will never succeed. I will never believe for a second that any Arab nation wants Assad ousted, maybe Turkey but even Turkey doesn't want to risk it.

 

[ResurgentIran]

Been doing great. Finally having free time. Looking forward to a fun summer.

Wbu?

PS, if this is a serious effort. And they gain a city like Latakia/Hama, it would mean Hezbollah needs to go all in or Iran needs to provide troops. Which I believe is the goal here, they want rebels to make gains near nuclear deadline. So when there is sanctions relief Iran will pour that money into Syria to assist SAA. Therefore they keep Iran and Arab world invested in the conflict and prolong it another 5 years minimum. It's a game which Turkey and Saudi Arabia are aware of(my personal opinion). And if the idiot leadership amongst rebels don't realize that and rely on either nation then they will never succeed. I will never believe for a second that any Arab nation wants Assad ousted, maybe Turkey but even Turkey doesn't want to risk it.

The rebels capture of Idlib represents a serious strategic blow to the Syrian Army because Idlib is a major artery.
The rebels can now more easily advance on several fronts. Toward the coast Latakia, but also some of the other power-centers like Homs and Hama.
I dont think the nuclear deal is being impacted by what transpires in Syria, however we may see increased material support from Iran, especially if a nuclear deal is reached and money is being freed up for Iran to spend on saving its ally. I dont know, but it is likely scenario. This is probably a conflict that is going to take 10-20 years to play itself out. Syria has a grim future. :/

Im ok. I have exam in 6 weeks, and I just cracked open the books. So you may not see me online as frequently.
After the exams, I have job to look forward to (entire summer) :/
So life kinda sucks right now. It is what it is.
I did recently order the New Nintendo 3DS though, but lets see how much spare time I can get, to play it. lol
What are your plans for the summer?

 

[Aramagedon]

Question is ally to do what? To increase support to opposition? Or to just state your political goals? Turkey nor Saudi Arabia had any hand in Idlib offensive, that was work of rebels. If Turkey and Saudi Arabia want to make a difference then there needs to be concrete steps taken. So far that hasn't happened, and this article quotes one official statement that Saudi Arabia is past its war on Muslim Brotherhood and has more important priorities now. This doesn't equate to any alliance to me. And alliance to oust Assad would mean it's going to happen quickly, otherwise the war will prolong which means there is no actual support.

The only thing that makes sense is they don't care about international criticism anymore. Since every Sunni group is considered extremist, might as well support them then. From the perspective of Saudi Arabia and Turkey.



Are you being serious? Can you specify what exact impact they had? They had absolutely zero hand in Idlib.

About your statement I have to tell you, I was watching a documentary about Syria war on TV. An old villager man that his village was settled beside Turkish border was telling that FSA rebels directly entered into their village from Turkey and imported their weapons from Turkey, they plundered their village, homes and killed half of population of village. They killed everyone who disagreed with them. He was crying hardly and could not continue his speech.

 

[BLACKEAGLE]

Any sane person should believe that Assad and his allies have no future in Syria. The things Iran achieved by keeping the Syrian regime alive is getting region people absolute enmity and hatred as well as wasting billions of cash.

 

[Aramagedon]

Any sane person should believe that Assad and his allies have no future in Syria. The things Iran achieved by keeping the Syrian regime alive is getting region people absolute enmity and hatred as well as wasting billions of cash.

If Iran did not keep that alive the wild ISIS FSA berbers would kill many many people. That is what you terrorist supporters do not understand. Meanwhile it is not only Iran who help Syrian regime, Russia and China help them too. Iran gives military advises but it is Syrian army who are fighting for their country and about 100k of them have become martyr. Plus 88% of people of Syria have voted to Asad in a free election that almost does not exist in any arab country.