notorious_eagle
PDF THINK TANK: CONSULTANT
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It all depends on how you look at it.
I personally feel that a defensive navy is highly over-rated word. A navy cannot conduct guerrilla attacks ala army and neither can it conduct raids ala air force without venturing out of its turf (exception subs- which i will come to later).
Before i start, my knowledge of Navy is quite limited so please feel free to correct me if you think i am wrong. Indeed, this is what the Iranians imagined they would do against the US Navy but in return got their a** handed to them during the Iran-Iraq War. I am quite sure this is not what the strategy of PN is but i doubt they can effectively launch guerilla style attacks on IN, maybe fast missile boats armed with latest ASM's might come in quick and fire their missiles.
So what would be a defensive navy in terms of Pakistan ? It would be purely a force which is kept in its own territory and trying its best to keep the by lanes open. However the advantage of a narrow coast becomes a disadvantage here. Your navy will be constricted in a narrow space and with the reluctance to move outside from its comfort zone would become easy pickings for IN once they decide to venture in your territory. India not being an expeditionary force will not mind taking in some losses while trying to enforce this and neither will public opinion change in case of losses.
First of all i believe the conflict between Pakistan and India would not be long, it will be quick but deadly conflict. PN does not has to fight off the IN for a month, all they have to do is fight them off for a week or maybe a couple of days and they achieve their objective. The narrow space can be a disadvantage or an advantage, but its up to PN how they utilize it. From what i can gather, they intend to concentrate their assets and that i believe is definitely an advantage. With the upgrades that PN is going through, i think all the Frigates will have decent self protection and the ability to fire ASM, Harpoon II is definitely icing on the cake.
With regards to exocet armed Mirage III , Mig 29K's and harriers will be specifically tasked to neutralize or counter this threat. And depending purely on land based ASM's will not do you any good if IN only wishes to close the by lanes. They really dont need to move in close, they only have to deter merchant vessles for entering pak waters.
Sir the Mirage III's are specifically assigned for Anti Shipping Roles, to counter the IN Aviation PAF has dedicated an airbase in Karachi PAF Masroor. It will be their task to fight off the MIG 29's and Harriers, Mirage III's will not be used for Air Superiority Roles.
Subs can be an excellent answer given Pakistan's qualitative edge in Agosta, but given the limited number will it be enough ? IN's sub fleet however miserable it is will also move in much before its conventional fleet moves in. So we have two that plays the same game.
That is the biggest problem, while the IN Sub Fleet grows in number PN's Sub Fleet is still static in numbers. It appears that the U214 deal is as good as dead, but a lot of good signs are appearing from China. It appears that PN will purchase either the Upgraded Song or Yuan Class with AIP, anyways just an educated guess but nothing is concrete yet.
IMHO Pakistani navy has to be proactive and engage Indian navy in open waters conducting Hit and run tactics before IN tries to venture into your waters. It will end up buying lot of time and maybe sway battle in PN's favour.
I believe this task will be entrusted to the Agosta's, as they are currently being upgraded i think they will be expected to engage the IN in open waters. Sending out our surface fleet would definitely be a suicide.