Multan rejects Noon league

[I FLY HIGH]

Let's look at the capacity vs people on ground in a way that favours PMLN.

The stadium's sitting capacity on stairs is 18000. The stairs section in all of the pics posted by Maryam with supporters is where the big white panaflex with local leadership faces is installed. That section with supporters sitting in numbers is 1/4th of the rest of stadium.

Even if we consider it half of the stadium's sitting capacity, which is a long stretch by any margin...that is not very much...Even if we side with pmln then it makes only 7000 people...as we see that people are sitting sparingly on the rest of the half of total stairs sitting area.

PMLN POV stats:
Total=18000
Section packed=4500
Rest of the area= 2500.

The people's capacity in the actual park or ground is 50,000 (+ - 5000.)

The section cordoned off in front of stage for security distance is atleadt 1/5th of total ground if not 1/4...Let's favour PMLN and consider it only 1/5th.

The sections on either side are also cordoned off, left and right flank of main section in front of stage...even if we tilt it in favour of PMLN, can easily be considered at least 1/5th of total ground on the sides are those parts that were cordoned off.

That makes at least 2/5 ground of 50,000 capacity not occupied...So even if the rest of the ground was jam packed then it is safe to say that 30,000 people were at the venue in front of stage.

It does not look like 30,000 from any footage as there were empty spots especially in the back and near exits but let's give that number to PMLN to be happy.

Total supporters from PMLN POV:
Sitting = 7000
Standing on Ground = 30000
Total= 37,000

After the Jehlum Jalsa debacle, PMLN was prepared to not let things to chance...it was a matter of pride.

Considering for a sitting government with resources to pull in people from all over as well as local government and administrative workers that are part and parcel of such government gatherings...

37000 people is a respectable jalsa, not huge by any stretch of imagination but Reminds us of Musharraf Jalsa in front of Parliament on May 12 had similar attendance.

One thing is obvious, the winds of south Punjab are no longer with PMLN and this Jalsa is a huge embarrassment for leadership with open eyes and ears when compared with PMLN jalsas of the past.

https://twitter.com/x/status/995025025899122695

Look at the status and attendance in jalsa , this will not be shown by the controlled media. Secondly , look at the charged crowd and the passion and enthusiasm in them to see their leadership. I t can never be compared to the Musharraf paid crowd .

power house of PML N is north punjab
in 102 seats in north Punjab(Look at the heavy concentration of seats in big urbanising districts: Lahore (14), Faisalabad (10), Rawalpindi (7), Gujranwala (6), Sargodha (5), Sialkot (5), Kasur (5), and Okara (5). That’s a treasure trove of 57 seats from eight districts.), in 2013 the PML-N had won 95. if they even get let say 70 seats or even 50 seats from northern punjab they will still form govt with
coalition with ANP, JUI, azad and AWP etc or even with PPPP/MQM


in short the educated urban areas of northern punjab who always stick to PML N will vote for them again and the decide fate of pakistan

in south its game of paying corrupt people and lanlords and PML N is good at it

dont be surprsed if PTI gets more total votes and yet is unable to form govt..northern punjab educated class is the key, so far gullop polls show that PML N still is more popular though margin has decreased

previoulsy i thought it will be clean sweep by PM LNbut bad luck for them..
they lost southern punjab to PTI and havent able to solve laod shedding, PTI retains seats in KPK which will make PTI second biggest party

but i think with help of ANP, JUI, MQM, balochistan indpendents PMAP PML N will form govt,

this is because of these 102 northern punjab seats assuming it gets even 60+ seats in this group , it should emerge as single largest party

this is sad story similar to MQM, JUI and PPPP

I agree to most of your analysis except southern punjab, In southern punjab only 6 Mnas of sooba mahaz have left and 3 of them were elected as independents and later joined Pmln after 2013 elections. Southern punjab has roughly 40 seats and Pmln holds them still after these joinings. I have the news that the people with corruption files have joined the sooba mahaz to get rid of the nab cases while most of the MNAs with clean reputation have refused to join PTI. On ground the party which has least following (except multan city) is PTI. So PTI will cling some of these electable seats but majority chunk will go to Pmln.

 

[Shane]

Look at the status and attendance in jalsa , this will not be shown by the controlled media.

Two screen grabs from your own posted Twitter Vid...Spot the empty spots on the stairs and in the back of people standing in the middle. Keep in mind the huge distance gap kept empty in front of stage...this is your own vid dear, people see what they want to see...

I did you a favour to count 37000 people from PMLN POV in attendance when security sources say there were 19,000-20,000 people in attendance.

That's an unfortunate number for a party in power with all the resources at hand that it used to its fullest but even if the attendance was actually 37000, then still it is shameful considering PMLN Jalsas of the past.

The reality on the ground is that it was a well managed mediocre gathering and no where near as large as PMLN expected or Maryam is trying to fake it.

But do understand this...PMLN leadership knows South is slipping away...So expect some radical changes soon to upease the south sooner than a looming disaster in elections.

 

[Devil Soul]

Lets be honest & realistic here... Jalsa gathering is no way a measuring parameter... as JI hav also done big jalsa's....

 

[ghazi52]

This is the space creator.
یہ ہے خلائی مخلوق جس سے ملک کو خطرہ لاحق ہے

 

[ziaulislam]

https://twitter.com/x/status/995025025899122695

Look at the status and attendance in jalsa , this will not be shown by the controlled media. Secondly , look at the charged crowd and the passion and enthusiasm in them to see their leadership. I t can never be compared to the Musharraf paid crowd .


I agree to most of your analysis except southern punjab, In southern punjab only 6 Mnas of sooba mahaz have left and 3 of them were elected as independents and later joined Pmln after 2013 elections. Southern punjab has roughly 40 seats and Pmln holds them still after these joinings. I have the news that the people with corruption files have joined the sooba mahaz to get rid of the nab cases while most of the MNAs with clean reputation have refused to join PTI. On ground the party which has least following (except multan city) is PTI. So PTI will cling some of these electable seats but majority chunk will go to Pmln.

as i said PM L N will loose some of southern punjab to PPPP and PTI but will hold half of seats and there and majority in northern punjab..check mate...

worse case scenario, it would just need JUI, ANP or someone else to form coalition

 

[ziaulislam]

now if state comes into action and wants to put him, than who knows he will loose

 

[Pakistansdefender]

What nawaz did today.
If you still want to vote him.
Go to hell them.

 

[Proudpakistaniguy]

Let's look at the capacity vs people on ground in a way that favours PMLN.

The stadium's sitting capacity on stairs is 18000. The stairs section in all of the pics posted by Maryam with supporters is where the big white panaflex with local leadership faces is installed. That section with supporters sitting in numbers is 1/4th of the rest of stadium.

Even if we consider it half of the stadium's sitting capacity, which is a long stretch by any margin...that is not very much...Even if we side with pmln then it makes only 7000 people...as we see that people are sitting sparingly on the rest of the half of total stairs sitting area.

PMLN POV stats:
Total=18000
Section packed=4500
Rest of the area= 2500.

The people's capacity in the actual park or ground is 50,000 (+ - 5000.)

The section cordoned off in front of stage for security distance is atleadt 1/5th of total ground if not 1/4...Let's favour PMLN and consider it only 1/5th.

The sections on either side are also cordoned off, left and right flank of main section in front of stage...even if we tilt it in favour of PMLN, can easily be considered at least 1/5th of total ground on the sides are those parts that were cordoned off.

That makes at least 2/5 ground of 50,000 capacity not occupied...So even if the rest of the ground was jam packed then it is safe to say that 30,000 people were at the venue in front of stage.

It does not look like 30,000 from any footage as there were empty spots especially in the back and near exits but let's give that number to PMLN to be happy.

Total supporters from PMLN POV:
Sitting = 7000
Standing on Ground = 30000
Total= 37,000

After the Jehlum Jalsa debacle, PMLN was prepared to not let things to chance...it was a matter of pride.

Considering for a sitting government with resources to pull in people from all over as well as local government and administrative workers that are part and parcel of such government gatherings...

37000 people is a respectable jalsa, not huge by any stretch of imagination but Reminds us of Musharraf Jalsa in front of Parliament on May 12 had similar attendance.

One thing is obvious, the winds of south Punjab are no longer with PMLN and this Jalsa is a huge embarrassment for leadership with open eyes and ears when compared with PMLN jalsas of the past.

If we leave this politics of "crowd counting" aside. Do you think PTI will manage to win more seats in Punjab than PML(N) ? I am asking for your personal political assememt

 

[Shane]

If we leave this politics of "crowd counting" aside. Do you think PTI will manage to win more seats in Punjab than PML(N) ? I am asking for your personal political assememt

Thankfully, I have nothing else but my personal political opinion.

If PTI manages to jolt its sympsthizers out of their cocoon then it shall be a clean sweep. IK is getting there but he is not trying desperately enough...he is thinking he is already set to win if he goes through the motions...they have their own surveys this time around...thats the difference...he has to become passionate about wining even from some of electible seats where it looks like a lost cause. He should have had a ten Jalsa roadmap before Ramadan instead of PMLN. There is still time. Now its up to the performance of few weeks after EID to do that.

Back to reality, on the other hand, as evident from the increasing hue and cry and desperate struggle to incite people of different constituencies by Nawaz and Maryam because they have surveys of defeat that tell the ominous writing on the wall, i have the following assessment:

At the MNA level, other than a few electable seats in the pocket, PMLN is set to lose all its urban and more than half of the rural seats to a combination of Azaad and PTI candidates along with a few negligible seats going to PPP.

The NA seats numbers shall be a reflection of 2013, with PTI and AZAAD candidates combination taking the place of PMLN at the top, while PMLN shall win similar to what PPP achieved and PPP shall win the same as that of PTI.

Im giving PMLN this much because of its Cambridge Alalytics fed Elections road map that it looked like they were following, at least up until a couple of weeks ago.

They seemed to be diverging a bit... But this current pro-India statement means they are getting back on track. If we can learn anything from recent history then blackmail like this has had mixed results off late.

If left on their own, PMLN would do even worse.

In Sha Allah.

 

[ADIL SHERDIL]

Now it's greeting pathetic for NS. He is a stupid man who wants to stay in power and will do anything for it.
His popularity is declining because of himself and he will try to take help from foreign hands to stay relevant.
Good going Multan good choice

 

[Muhammad Omar]

Ager baray Jalsay krne se koi election jeet Sakta hai to Jamat e Islami 2018 Ka election jeet skti hai

Siraj Ul Haq agla Wazeer e Azam Hoga