Moscow wants Dhaka by its side at UN, WTO

[Destranator]

Money was and also remains the primary driver.

Tatmadaw is a huge customer of Russian arms, MiGs and Helis (Mi-17, Mi-171s) and many artillery and missile types.

I'd argue Bangladesh is not as good a customer because for arms, Bangladesh has options but Myanmar does not because of sanctions.

1. Gazprom has vested interest in Burma's oil and gas. They have been eying contracts for more than a decade now.
2. China depends on Burmese oil and gas. Russia cannot afford to piss off China by contradicting Chinese position on the Rohingya situation.

 

[VikingRaider]

1. Gazprom has vested interest in Burma's oil and gas. They have been eying contracts for more than a decade now.
2. China depends on Burmese oil and gas. Russia cannot afford to piss off China by contradicting Chinese position on the Rohingya situation.

Also if you carefully look at the geopolitics, you see that China has only access to Eastern water, and with rest of the world China has access through malacca strait only which is the chicken neck for China ( ad shiliguri corridor for India) , and in ww2 China faced hostile naval blockade from Japan.

That time usa and West was their ally and they used Indian route to supply China, so China remain alive.

Now when they are adversary of China , so now if USA impose naval blockade on malacca strait ( usa can use andaman as base ) , China will literally come down on it's knees in few weeks.

As Pakistan isn't a good access to Arabian sea through karakoram highway.

So only Myanmar is the direct route for China to access the bay of Bengal.

So why on earthly reason China will go against Myanmar?

China can survive without the gas of Myanmar I think as Russia can give them gas ( I could be wrong here though) , but without access to the bay of Bengal, China can't survive as only a 40 km malacca strait is their only way to trade with rest of the world that can easily be blocked with a hostile navy.

And usa has the far more advanced navy than any other countries in the world.

So why China will entertain Bangladesh by digging their own grave? No reason!

The problem of our people is we consider ourselves superior to others. একে বলে গাঁয়ে মানে না, আপনি মোড়ল!

This mentality never bring a good result in the end.

The world doesn't revolve around the so called superiority of muktizuddher chetona; which is the route of such fake superiority complex, that is now mostly use it dirty business purpose!

@Destranator

 

[Destranator]

Also if you carefully look at the geopolitics, you see that China has only access to Eastern water, and with rest of the world China has access through malacca strait only which is the chicken neck for China ( ad shiliguri corridor for India) , and in ww2 China faced hostile naval blockade from Japan.

That time usa and West was their ally and they used Indian route to supply China, so China remain alive.

Now when they are adversary of China , so now if USA impose naval blockade on malacca strait ( usa can use andaman as base ) , China will literally come down on it's knees in few weeks.

As Pakistan isn't a good access to Arabian sea through karakoram highway.

So only Myanmar is the direct route for China to access the bay of Bengal.

So why on earthly reason China will go against Myanmar?

China can survive without the gas of Myanmar I think as Russia can give them gas ( I could be wrong here though) , but without access to the bay of Bengal, China can't survive as only a 40 km malacca strait is their only way to trade with rest of the world that can easily be blocked with a hostile navy.

And usa has the far more advanced navy than any other countries in the world.

So why China will entertain Bangladesh by digging their own grave? No reason!

The problem of our people is we consider ourselves superior to others. একে বলে গাঁয়ে মানে না, আপনি মোড়ল!

This mentality never bring a good result in the end. The world doesn't revolve around the so called superiority of muktizuddher chetona, that is now mostly use it business purpose!

@Destranator

Good point. China is building a deep sea port in Kyaukphyu. Losing Bangladesh to the Western camp while undesirable is not a major loss for China and Russia.
The truth is we need them more than they need us.

 

[VikingRaider]

Bangladesh better stay at the very least neutral.

In the end other than Allah and dead body, no one is neutral.

What if usa demand to Bangladesh that either you are with us, or against us! What would you suggest , what Bangladesh should do?

Choose usa side instead of sino Russia?

 

[Destranator]

What if usa demand to Bangladesh that either you are with us, or against us! What would you suggest , what Bangladesh should do?

Choose usa side instead of sino Russia?

This will puncture some egoes here but Bangladesh is not indispensable for the West either.
The West has no need to put their security and economic interests on the line for Bangladesh. The upside of this is the West does not lose much if BD joins the Chinese camp. An outright 'with us or against us' threat is unlikely.
We must continue to remain neutral and milk both camps to develop both economically and militarily.

 

[Avicenna]

In the end other than Allah and dead body, no one is neutral.

What if usa demand to Bangladesh that either you are with us, or against us! What would you suggest , what Bangladesh should do?

Choose usa side instead of sino Russia?

If it came to that, I don't think Bangladesh has any other choice than to go along with the West.

At least at this present time.

See recent events in the rest of the world.

i.e. World response to Russia/Ukraine conflict

i.e. Pakistan and IK

A damn shameful state of affairs.

But one that is not Bangladesh's fault.

 

[VikingRaider]

If it came to that, I don't think Bangladesh has any other choice than to go along with the West.

At least at this present time.

See recent events in the rest of the world.

i.e. World response to Russia/Ukraine conflict

i.e. Pakistan and IK

A damn shameful state of affairs.

But one that is not Bangladesh's fault.

But does usa have the trade surplus to give Bangladesh money?

Garments sector is important, but Bangladesh doesn't get gsp from usa since 2012 .

Besides Bangladesh's most foreign currency is earned by expats.

Slowly Bangladesh is exporting electronic. And also medicine. So we are expanding our scopes I think.

 

[Avicenna]

But does usa have the trade surplus to give Bangladesh money?

Garments sector is important, but Bangladesh doesn't get gsp from usa since 2012 .

Besides Bangladesh's most foreign currency is earned by expats.

Slowly Bangladesh is exporting electronic. And also medicine. So we are expanding our scopes I think.

You are not seeing the big picture.

Are you not seeing what is happening in Pakistan?

If the US wants something, it will get it.

By hook or by crook.

Especially in the case of weaker countries like Bangladesh.

So I ask you?

If the US REALLY wants something from Bangladesh.

What really can Bangladesh do?

 

[UKBengali]

You are not seeing the big picture.

Are you not seeing what is happening in Pakistan?

If the US wants something, it will get it.

By hook or by crook.

Especially in the case of weaker countries like Bangladesh.

So I ask you?

If the US REALLY wants something from Bangladesh.

What really can Bangladesh do?

I think it is not correct to put BD in the same position as Pakistan.

Pakistan has always been more easily manipulated by foreign powers than BD has been.

At this moment there is no effective opposition to AL in BD and so trying to oust the BD government like they did with IK will probably fail. Only realistic way is to sway the army but Hasina has spent over a decade putting the most loyal officers into the key positions.

I do not want to insult our hosts but Pakistani politicians, army and judiciary over the decades have sold themselves to foreign powers more than any in BD. Hasina may have some relationship with India but she certainly does not take direct orders from them.

In essence, Pakistan is easy to control for USA but not so for BD. Yes may be able to do it, but how much do they want to try and is there a guarantee for actual benefits for them when BD is a neutral country that is not hostile to USA/West unlike IK who openly talked against the West and is a close Chinese ally?

 

[Avicenna]

I think it is not correct to put BD in the same position as Pakistan.

Pakistan has always been more easily manipulated by foreign powers than BD has been.

At this moment there is no effective opposition to AL in BD and so trying to oust the BD government like they did with IK will probably fail.

I do not want to onsult our hosts but Pakistani politicians, army and judiciary over the decades have sold themselves to foreign powers more than any in BD. Hasina may have some relationship with India but she certainly does not take direct orders from them.

In essence, Pakistan is easy to control for USA but not so for BD. Yes they can do it, but how much do they want to try and is there a guarantee for actual benefits for them when BD is a neutral country that is not hostile to USA/West unlike IK who openly talked against the West and is a close Chinese ally?

Bangladesh's time for manipulation is coming.

In the past, it wasn't worth the time.

But if the US really wants something from Bangladesh.

You're gonna tell me Bangladesh can resist that?

Look at the track record here for the US.

Also, the US has many means at its disposal.

This is why I was chiming in on the Ukraine thread about wanting a multipolar world.

If Russia continues to wither, and China continues to be ostensibly passive. (IMO playing the long game)

The liberal hawks running the show in Washington are gonna have a pseudo carte blache in the short to mid term.

And if the recent news of US engagement with Bangladesh is any indication, Uncle Sam wants something.

The caveat is that Bangladesh's increased importance to US Indo-Pacific plans may be diminished somewhat with events in Pakistan which may bring it into the US fold somewhat more. (At the alienation of China)

In any case, all 3 major South Asian nations are pawns in the US/China situation.

And this will be the case even more so going forward as that conflict matures.

 

[Destranator]

You are not seeing the big picture.

Are you not seeing what is happening in Pakistan?

If the US wants something, it will get it.

By hook or by crook.

Especially in the case of weaker countries like Bangladesh.

So I ask you?

If the US REALLY wants something from Bangladesh.

What really can Bangladesh do?

If it comes to it, the US can force BD into its camp. It has all the leverage in the world to be able to do that.
Just threaten the garments industry and UN mission deployment and see how quickly the govt caves. Reality is different from the la-la land some love to live in.

 

[Avicenna]

If it comes to it, the US can force BD into its camp. It has all the leverage in the world to be able to do that.

Yeah absolutely.

Either by carrot or stick.

This is not even a question.

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

Yeah absolutely.

Either by carrot or stick.

This is not even a question.

imo a combination of carrot and stick.

mostly carrots, i hope

 

[VikingRaider]

If it comes to it, the US can force BD into its camp. It has all the leverage in the world to be able to do that.

Then what if China stops giving us money? Can usa give us the money? Do they have such huge amount of trade surplus?

Besides, if dollar hegemony really comes to an end , will usa still can be beneficial from this monetary system?

So what what usa can offer Bangladesh in return if they forcefully try to get Bangladesh in their camp? Will China sit hand on hand to see it since China want a deep influence on the bay of Bengal.

So will China take the risk? What if Bangladesh goes in usa camp? Usa would want to establish a base , in order to create trouble for China.

Would China allow it?

 

[F-6 enthusiast]

i dont think the US is interested in having a naval base in Chittagong. they want ACSA , which essentially means USN can receive logistics support (food, fuel , supplies) from BN bases and vice versa. This should be our red line and should not be crossed.