Military Simulation - The Indo-Pak conflict - A hyperbole

[Mumm-Ra]

As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.

View attachment 752008


By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.

As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense


View attachment 752009View attachment 752010

As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.

View attachment 752011


Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent. View attachment 752012

Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape. View attachment 752013

The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
View attachment 752014
As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.

At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.

View attachment 752015


The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.

At the end -

Pakistani losses
14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs
2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

7x Ammo Bunker -Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos

15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] secondary explosions and rocket attacks

13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) - Artillery and Jaguar strikes

14x Bunkers - Brahmos and Mirage 2000

3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - MKI and Bison

1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- MKI and Bison

4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - MKI , Mig-29 and Bison

4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - MKI

3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2- MKI and Bison

2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA) MKI and Bison

1x Radar (China YLC-2V) - Brahmos

2x Radar (MPDR-45) - Brahmos

3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] Jaguar with dumb bombs

3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] M2k with LGB

1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] MKI

3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB

1x Div HQ - M2k Spice 2000

1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - MKI

1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]- Jaguar

6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] - Jaguar

Indian losses

1x Heron UAV
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000H-5
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H


Ending note:
I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective.

so few takeaways:
1- the absence of a long range air defense system was sorely felt as it might have given Pakistan some definite advantages while dealing with such a massive onslaught
2-That counter artillery fire at LOC was not effective is news to me as I think that we would have responded with some equal ferocity here.
3-The forward movement of M-777, Bofors and Brahmos from rear areas was missed and a reciprocal movement of heavy hitters from Pak side did not materialize. The reason may have been intelligence failure or just plain negligence
4-There is a strong possibility that PAF would eventually be overwhelmed by IAF
5-F7-PG was ineffective in dealing with the IAF threat.
6-Somehow a general lax attitude prevailed in HQs (which is very confusing for me)

 

[KaiserX]

As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.

View attachment 752008


By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.

As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense


View attachment 752009View attachment 752010

As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.

View attachment 752011


Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent. View attachment 752012

Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape. View attachment 752013

The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
View attachment 752014
As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.

At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.

View attachment 752015


The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.

At the end -

Pakistani losses
14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs
2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

7x Ammo Bunker -Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos

15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] secondary explosions and rocket attacks

13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) - Artillery and Jaguar strikes

14x Bunkers - Brahmos and Mirage 2000

3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - MKI and Bison

1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- MKI and Bison

4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - MKI , Mig-29 and Bison

4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - MKI

3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2- MKI and Bison

2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA) MKI and Bison

1x Radar (China YLC-2V) - Brahmos

2x Radar (MPDR-45) - Brahmos

3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] Jaguar with dumb bombs

3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] M2k with LGB

1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] MKI

3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB

1x Div HQ - M2k Spice 2000

1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - MKI

1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]- Jaguar

6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] - Jaguar

Indian losses

1x Heron UAV
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000H-5
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H


Ending note:
I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective.

Your scenario doesnt take into fact a lot of consideration such as the following:

1) Pakistan would play fully defensive and not react with its own hard hitting strikes back on Indian forward operating bases/airfields/ammo dumps/etc...

2) Technically Pakistan has equality if not numeral superiority in aircraft along the LOC/IB. India is vast and has its own airbases along the Chinese/Eastern borders. As well as southern India. It would take India time to divert much of its airforce towards the north western bases to face Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence would surely notice this movement far beforehand.

3) Such a large strike would be noticed by multiple Pakistani radars/air defences/AWACs hundreds of kilometers away from the border. The reason India was able to remotely launch airstrikes in 2019 was because their strike package was so small. Now Pakistan has bought/deployed the latest Chinese HQ-16Bs and radars along the border. These are as capable as Israeli missiles.

4) Your analysis doesnt take into consideration the large number of Babur/NASR/C802/C803/Shaheen/Ghauri missile batteries deployed. If India were to escalate to using Brahmos/Privithi missiles Pakistan would instantly respond with x5 the amount of targets hit. This threat was clearly given to the Indians in Feb 2017 when they threaten to launch 5 Brahmos missile and we said we would hit them back with 15 in return.

5) Just as India can hit lahore or major cities close to the border Pakistan can also mobilize on a mass basis and take the fight to Indian cities such as Amristar or Srinagar as we have done in the past. Today Pakistan is hundred times more capable and may go upto mainland india such as haryana/gujrat/rajasthan.

Not just that but striking a major base or city like lahore would be met with an overwhelming response by the Pakistani nation in return taking out x5 times the bases or hitting x5 times the cities in India.

 

[SQ8]

Your scenario doesnt take into fact a lot of consideration such as the following:

1) Pakistan would play fully defensive and not react with its own hard hitting strikes back on Indian forward operating bases/airfields/ammo dumps/etc...

2) Technically Pakistan has equality if not numeral superiority in aircraft along the LOC/IB. India is vast and has its own airbases along the Chinese/Eastern borders. As well as southern India. It would take India time to divert much of its airforce towards the north western bases to face Pakistan. Pakistani intelligence would surely notice this movement far beforehand.

3) Such a large strike would be noticed by multiple Pakistani radars/air defences/AWACs hundreds of kilometers away from the border. The reason India was able to remotely launch airstrikes in 2019 was because their strike package was so small. Now Pakistan has bought/deployed the latest Chinese HQ-16Bs and radars along the border. These are as capable as Israeli missiles.

4) Your analysis doesnt take into consideration the large number of Babur/NASR/C802/C803/Shaheen/Ghauri missile batteries deployed. If India were to escalate to using Brahmos/Privithi missiles Pakistan would instantly respond with x5 the amount of targets hit. This threat was clearly given to the Indians in Feb 2017 when they threaten to launch 5 Brahmos missile and we said we would hit them back with 15 in return.

5) Just as India can hit lahore or major cities close to the border Pakistan can also mobilize on a mass basis and take the fight to Indian cities such as Amristar or Srinagar as we have done in the past. Today Pakistan is hundred times more capable and may go upto mainland india such as haryana/gujrat/rajasthan.

Not just that but striking a major base or city like lahore would be met with an overwhelming response by the Pakistani nation in return taking out x5 times the bases or hitting x5 times the cities in India.

All good points - bear in mind I am going day by day and not painting months or weeks.

1- that was shown in the 27th February run, as a retaliation for the 26th February strike. I will once again point to the initial briefing for how this simulation works.
@PanzerKiel I assume that the basic premise of most wargame sims since the early days of rolling a die have not changed?

2 - Just as on the 26th, Indian aircraft did not move into FoBs and instead refueled over mainland India to get to their targets. There is a possibility (much as the Indians missed the amassing at Skardu for Kargil) of it being missed.

3- The date for this is 28th February 2019 - yet there is a HQ16 active and makes a big impact

4 - Also mentioned the reason why they were - although mostly out of curiosity since without the Brahmos the Indians would need 120 jets and the results were quite different.

5 - mentioned again, bear in mind there are enough insane voices in the Indian government and state to still attempt this.

 

[SQ8]

so few takeaways:
1- the absence of a long range air defense system was sorely felt as it might have given Pakistan some definite advantages while dealing with such a massive onslaught
2-That counter artillery fire at LOC was not effective is news to me as I think that we would have responded with some equal ferocity here.
3-The forward movement of M-777, Bofors and Brahmos from rear areas was missed and a reciprocal movement of heavy hitters from Pak side did not materialize. The reason may have been intelligence failure or just plain negligence
4-There is a strong possibility that PAF would eventually be overwhelmed by IAF
5-F7-PG was ineffective in dealing with the IAF threat.
6-Somehow a general lax attitude prevailed in HQs (which is very confusing for me)

1 It does but the single HQ-16 still proves effective at inflicting losses on the IAF - what would be the impact of more than 2-3 batteries?

2 - It was more about being outranged - I was hesitant to place batteries too close to the LoC but according to the database the simulation uses the M-777 and Bofors outrange the Type-59s I had there.

3 - Think Kargil

4 - With enough aircraft in the air they will. But the effects of the PAF still having a longer BVR stick cannot be overstated enough. Pretty much every IAF aircraft is shot at first- the best bet they have is getting numerical superiority to have more shooters than the PAF in the air.

5 - Very much, they were picked off by R-77s long before they could bring any weapons to bear. It is a BVR fight for the future through and through - merges where much vaunted thrust vectoring would have any impact are absolutely impossible to get to in 80-90% of scenarios with BVR armed aircraft.

Who wrote this fanfic... What an unrealistic pile of dog-shxt and also the exchanges it is like taken from a fairytale and the junk Indian airforce like mirages is overrated out of porportions which doesn't make militarily sense.. Couple of nuclear exchange had happened at that point and a massive Pakistani ground incursion into India as soon as the nuclear winter dust settles in and crops fail. It would just be a matter of time India runs out of food completely majority of them will cannibalize each other literally for survival instinct..

Defeat always comes from the simple things you don't consider or always overlook. At that point once Nuclear winter settles in globally it is advantage Pakistan in a very grim post-apocalyptic environment they just don't have the mental fortitude for that unlike Pakistan that has the mental fortitude to press on and that is actully when their offensive first begins.. Indians simply don't have the stomach to grind it out at that point. It is all game for them but once they see no food is availble it is the beginning of the end

Hope your keyboard survived this


One more point - This was never meant to be “This is how it might happen” rather a “I cobbled this together between the hours of 11:30pm - 1Am .. how do you think it really should have happened?

Tell me where to place what, do what and ill let the algorithms do the rest. Or download it yourself if you have $90 burning a hole in your pocket.

 

[SQ8]

Also - @PanzerKiel @Jungibaaz - appreciate the positive ratings but this tripe really isn’t worth it. At best its avoiding having to watch “The woman in the window” with the Mrs material.
Still, a reason to log into PDF other than seeing some things stay more the same regardless of hidden positives jo bayan nahin ho sakte ya koi LinkedIn ya scholarly khol ke bhi dekhta nahin hai.

 

[PanzerKiel]

All good points - bear in mind I am going day by day and not painting months or weeks.

1- that was shown in the 27th February run, as a retaliation for the 26th February strike. I will once again point to the initial briefing for how this simulation works.
@PanzerKiel I assume that the basic premise of most wargame sims since the early days of rolling a die have not changed?

2 - Just as on the 26th, Indian aircraft did not move into FoBs and instead refueled over mainland India to get to their targets. There is a possibility (much as the Indians missed the amassing at Skardu for Kargil) of it being missed.

3- The date for this is 28th February 2019 - yet there is a HQ16 active and makes a big impact

4 - Also mentioned the reason why they were - although mostly out of curiosity since without the Brahmos the Indians would need 120 jets and the results were quite different.

5 - mentioned again, bear in mind there are enough insane voices in the Indian government and state to still attempt this.

Agreed.....
With regards to initial part of your point number 2, we did the same on 27 Feb.

1 It does but the single HQ-16 still proves effective at inflicting losses on the IAF - what would be the impact of more than 2-3 batteries?

2 - It was more about being outranged - I was hesitant to place batteries too close to the LoC but according to the database the simulation uses the M-777 and Bofors outrange the Type-59s I had there.

3 - Think Kargil

4 - With enough aircraft in the air they will. But the effects of the PAF still having a longer BVR stick cannot be overstated enough. Pretty much every IAF aircraft is shot at first- the best bet they have is getting numerical superiority to have more shooters than the PAF in the air.

5 - Very much, they were picked off by R-77s long before they could bring any weapons to bear. It is a BVR fight for the future through and through - merges where much vaunted thrust vectoring would have any impact are absolutely impossible to get to in 80-90% of scenarios with BVR armed aircraft.

Hope your keyboard survived this


One more point - This was never meant to be “This is how it might happen” rather a “I cobbled this together between the hours of 11:30pm - 1Am .. how do you think it really should have happened?

Tell me where to place what, do what and ill let the algorithms do the rest. Or download it yourself if you have $90 burning a hole in your pocket.

.... Moreover, IAF doesn't require to completely destroy PAF in order to achieve sir supremacy, we should remember 1971 and those four Squadrons in West Pakistan which did not participate at all during the war.

 

[SQ8]

Agreed.....
With regards to initial part of your point number 2, we did the same on 27 Feb.

.... Moreover, IAF doesn't require to completely destroy PAF in order to achieve sir supremacy, we should remember 1971 and those four Squadrons in West Pakistan which did not participate at all during the war.

As to the point of what this is - I wouldn’t even equate it to a table top exercise(although expert users of this platform are able to create much more detailed scenarios with event and location triggers, exacting ToTs down to exact airfield design - not to mention BaE licenses a more in depth professional version of it for use with I assume an actual military)

A reference to an actual procedure which I assume is fairly similar to what Pak Mil uses is here US Army Wargame handbook

 

[Pakistan Space Agency]

I remember watching this Japanese anime: Yugo- The Negotiator.

Even in this episode, Pakistan Army was portrayed as an evil force fighting against some Tribal people in the mountains. And, I wondered why Japan would portray Pakistan like that even though I've never heard Japanese Government say anything bad against Pakistan.

 

[SQ8]

I remember watching this Japanese anime: Yugo- The Negotiator.

Even in this episode, Pakistan Army was portrayed as an evil force fighting against some Tribal people in the mountains. And, I wondered why Japan would portray Pakistan like that even though I've never heard Japanese Government say anything bad against Pakistan.

Thank 20 years of western fiction and non-fiction painting it so. 1998 Peacemaker movie - a Pakistani nuclear scientist makes a bomb - 2008 Iron Man - A Pakistani terrorist.

 

[Jungibaaz]

Also - @PanzerKiel @Jungibaaz - appreciate the positive ratings but this tripe really isn’t worth it. At best its avoiding having to watch “The woman in the window” with the Mrs material.
Still, a reason to log into PDF other than seeing some things stay more the same regardless of hidden positives jo bayan nahin ho sakte ya koi LinkedIn ya scholarly khol ke bhi dekhta nahin hai.

This is possibly one of the best threads I’ve seen in a long while. I don’t usually wax lyrical like this, but even given the obvious limitations of the simulation (which has been reiterated multiple times now) and many assumptions besides, it’s still worth assessing how any future conflict like this might unfold. Also, feel free not to continuously defend the assumptions made in these scenarios, they’ll continue to repeat.

The whole point of assessments like this is to consider something close to the worst case scenario. It’s this type of training that promotes resourcefulness and excellence in both tactics and doctrine in our armed forces. I always think, that if we were even half the size of India, we’d have probably eaten them alive. Punching above your weight involves preparing to fight on worse terms. It’s not like what the IAF does, which is to train in favourable scenarios, and then disappoint in the actual because the other side managed to surprise you and refused to abide by the parameters you trained for.

Also, I think some of the assumptions made are actually quite fair. People are forgetting how ineffective Indian AD was against our well prepared and layered attack. It involved SEAD, EW, comms and radar jamming/spoofing, numerical superiority by design, diversions, and suppression of enemy interceptors. If we managed it, why is it unfair to assume the Indians mightn’t be able to? Especially given the mad political backdrop outlined here, which is an utterly unleashed Indian military.

IMO during the course of the operation, for the defender, situational awareness lags reality, and both RoEs and response can lag behind situational awareness. That last post explained it well, when the attack happens, how long do you take to realise it? How long before the scale of it becomes apparent, and how accurate is your real time assessment of the threat? How will you effectively respond in time? All these things are rarely discussed on the forum, we’re usually just talking platforms and weapons.

One thing about this exercise that I find perturbing is that if the Indians escalate enough and conduct a successful strike, it seems as though it would leave us little room to respond conventionally. All while Uncle Sam et al pressure us not to respond at all, and immediately deescalate.

 

[SQ8]

This is possibly one of the best threads I’ve seen in a long while. I don’t usually wax lyrical like this, but even given the obvious limitations of the simulation (which has been reiterated multiple times now) and many assumptions besides, it’s still worth assessing how any future conflict like this might unfold. Also, feel free not to continuously defend the assumptions made in these scenarios, they’ll continue to repeat.

The whole point of assessments like this is to consider something close to the worst case scenario. It’s this type of training that promotes resourcefulness and excellence in both tactics and doctrine in our armed forces. I always think, that if we were even half the size of India, we’d have probably eaten them alive. Punching above your weight involves preparing to fight on worse terms. It’s not like what the IAF does, which is to train in favourable scenarios, and then disappoint in the actual because the other side managed to surprise you and refused to abide by the parameters you trained for.

Also, I think some of the assumptions made are actually quite fair. People are forgetting how ineffective Indian AD was against our well prepared and layered attack. It involved SEAD, EW, comms and radar jamming/spoofing, numerical superiority by design, diversions, and suppression of enemy interceptors. If we managed it, why is it unfair to assume the Indians mightn’t be able to? Especially given the mad political backdrop outlined here, which is an utterly unleashed Indian military.

IMO during the course of the operation, for the defender, situational awareness lags reality, and both RoEs and response can lag behind situational awareness. That last post explained it well, when the attack happens, how long do you take to realise it? How long before the scale of it becomes apparent, and how accurate is your real time assessment of the threat? How will you effectively respond in time? All these things are rarely discussed on the forum, we’re usually just talking platforms and weapons.

One thing about this exercise that I find perturbing is that if the Indians escalate enough and conduct a successful strike, it seems as though it would leave us little room to respond conventionally. All while Uncle Sam et al pressure us not to respond at all, and immediately deescalate.

I am deliberately “forcing” stupid escalatory decisions as you can probably tell. What we saw with the Shaheen movement to the Brahmos on the 27th is much much more the likely outcome - but the intent of the thread was less of the geopolitical game and more of the systems facing each other.
As an example - if I replace some of the strike forces with the Rafale then it is the IAF taking first shots and not the PAF which makes a big difference.

 

[White Lion]

7. Alliances (played as Pakistan)

I know this is just a simulation hence not very close to reality yet it is the best we can get to the reality. The only question that comes to my mind is the Alliances (Played as Pakistan) still does not show the strategic partners in regards to those countries that have invested in Gawadar and CPEC.

1.) F-15 SA are the last thing that can be provided for support as USA would be protecting India their Strategic Partner. The Americans would never allow KSA to send aircraft to Pakistan unless KSA declares war against India.

2) Turkey is completely missing which is really confusing as they were the only country to offer manpower during both 1965 and 1971 Wars between India and Pakistan. Moreover Turk Honor their friends who have blead for their independence and the capture of Istanbul after WW1. Something my Turkish friends would acknowledge.

3) Azerbaijan is also not present which is surprising as Turkey could find a loophole through them to supply any thing Pakistan wants and join the conflict covertly to fool USA and NATO.

4) Tajikistan who relies on CPEC for trade is missing is also interesting as Russia would use them as a cover candidate to enter the war initially not to antagonize USA till USA enters the conflict directly.

5) Russia enters the war from the start due to CPEC and their agreement with China to protect China in case of war agreement that states if China is attacked it would be considered an attack on Russia and vice versa.

6) China would not wait but would enter the war from day one of the conflict. This is because China considers an attack on Islamabad would be considered as an attack on Beijing.

7) Italy, Ukraine and Belarus would enter the war along side Pakistan by selling EFT, Tanks and what ever Russia can supply Belarus can supply.

8) We tend to forget Kosovo. Kosovo though does not have major arms industry of their own but they are the only Muslim Country in Europe and they can procure any thing from Europe and supply to Pakistan provided Payments are made in cash. Pakistan would go on an hyperdrive to procure as many weapons it can manage in the shortest possible time trough funding from Turkey and the Gulf States.

9) There is no mention of Qatar and Kuwait who would fully support Pakistan from the very first minute of the war at least financially. This founding would be channeled trough Turkey mainly. Incase KSA enters the war then the Islamic Military Alliance would definately also declare war against India (except UAE).

10) Iran is the only country that IMO would be the most troubled on as she would be in the dilemma to be or not to be a part of this war. The reason is they were and are the only ones who consider an attack on any Muslim state as an attack on them.

There may be some other who would be pro Pakistan but remain in the covers so that espionage can be protected.

 

[SQ8]

I know this is just a simulation hence not very close to reality yet it is the best we can get to the reality. The only question that comes to my mind is the Alliances (Played as Pakistan) still does not show the strategic partners in regards to those countries that have invested in Gawadar and CPEC.

1.) F-15 SA are the last thing that can be provided for support as USA would be protecting India their Strategic Partner. The Americans would never allow KSA to send aircraft to Pakistan unless KSA declares war against India.

2) Turkey is completely missing which is really confusing as they were the only country to offer manpower during both 1965 and 1971 Wars between India and Pakistan. Moreover Turk Honor their friends who have blead for their independence and the capture of Istanbul after WW1. Something my Turkish friends would acknowledge.

3) Azerbaijan is also not present which is surprising as Turkey could find a loophole through them to supply any thing Pakistan wants and join the conflict covertly to fool USA and NATO.

4) Tajikistan who relies on CPEC for trade is missing is also interesting as Russia would use them as a cover candidate to enter the war initially not to antagonize USA till USA enters the conflict directly.

5) Russia enters the war from the start due to CPEC and their agreement with China to protect China in case of war agreement that states if China is attacked it would be considered an attack on Russia and vice versa.

6) China would not wait but would enter the war from day one of the conflict. This is because China considers an attack on Islamabad would be considered as an attack on Beijing.

7) Italy, Ukraine and Belarus would enter the war along side Pakistan by selling EFT, Tanks and what ever Russia can supply Belarus can supply.

8) We tend to forget Kosovo. Kosovo though does not have major arms industry of their own but they are the only Muslim Country in Europe and they can procure any thing from Europe and supply to Pakistan provided Payments are made in cash. Pakistan would go on an hyperdrive to procure as many weapons it can manage in the shortest possible time trough funding from Turkey and the Gulf States.

9) There is no mention of Qatar and Kuwait who would fully support Pakistan from the very first minute of the war at least financially. This founding would be channeled trough Turkey mainly. Incase KSA enters the war then the Islamic Military Alliance would definately also declare war against India (except UAE).

10) Iran is the only country that IMO would be the most troubled on as she would be in the dilemma to be or not to be a part of this war. The reason is they were and are the only ones who consider an attack on any Muslim state as an attack on them.

There may be some other who would be pro Pakistan but remain in the covers so that espionage can be protected.

Lets keep the timeframe in mind and constant - its Feb 2019. Based on the last bit of scenario(albiet forced narrative) - what happens next?

 

[White Lion]

Lets keep the timeframe in mind and constant - its Feb 2019. Based on the last bit of scenario(albiet forced narrative) - what happens next?

My post is considering 2019 or even prior to that. Planning for any conflict with India keeps on evolving. I based mine on events and statements leading to 2019.

Where did you think my post was not in line with the time frame so that clarification can be given.

 

[CrazyZ]

As Indian aircraft lobbed weapons at Pakistani targets, their low level attacks were met with RBS-70 Bolides, Anza sams and a AAA barrage that took its toll on the Mig-21sand some MKIs that had gotten too low avoiding the HQ-16 or Pakistani interceptors.

View attachment 752008


By 2:00 AM, there was pandemonium in Pakistani military HQs, reports of massive losses from the front along with possibly a 2 star killed who happened to be visiting a forward base was sending both the establishment and government panicking. How was this missed? Which bureaucratic advisor or overly cautious intel officer let a report slide? There were no time for these thoughts yet - the PM was rushed to safety with the different cabinet members in pursuit - one of them deciding to head to his own village while instructing his son to buy tickets to Dubai immediately.

As the Indian aircraft swarmed the Pakistani skies, they started to slow claim air superiority - JF-17s, F-16s and F-7s were eventually overcome after fighting a valiant but overall futile defense


View attachment 752009View attachment 752010

As the Pakistani skies were owned, Indain aircraft continued to pound targets towards the front lines while additional Brahmos batteries were moved towards the south and all troops moved to mobilization. Pakistan to be stunned and then intimidated with destruction - both for its and the worlds consumption. India is awake and it is furious.

View attachment 752011


Indian strike aircraft continued to fly strikes throughout the LoC axis - LGBs and dumb bombs coupled with the incessant artillery barrage left the Pakistani troops hunkered down with counter artillery fire nearly ineffective or non-existent. View attachment 752012

Mirage 2000s strike a camp and a Div HQ at Mansehra - setting ammo dumps ablaze as they used the mountain cover to avoid the surrounding AAA and make their escape. View attachment 752013

The last defense from the PAF played their BVR cards - stealing kills but otherwise helpless as their fellow soldiers and military targets fell.
View attachment 752014
As this was happening - to drive a nail in this morning coffin - a flight of MKIs was tasked with bring down the PAF AEW - which was trying to retreat towards Peshawar and the western border. Burners lit, they gave chase. A JF-17 from Minhas put up some defense and brought down a MKI - but it too fell to a R-77.

At 2:30AM - the burning carcass of a Saab 2000 was seen by the residents of Hangu.

View attachment 752015


The offensive ended at 3:00AM after brutalizing the Pakistani front lines and key supporting targets along with taking out key ADGE assets.

At the end -

Pakistani losses
14x 35mm Twin Oerlikon [UAR-1021 Skyguard FCR] [Cargo] - mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs
2x 35mm/79 Oerlikon Millennium GDM-008 [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

1x 35mm/90 Twin Type 90 [China Type 902 FC] [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

34x 37mm/63 Type 65 Twin DP [Cargo] mostly through some unnerving Mig-21 rocket runs

7x Ammo Bunker -Mirage 2000 LGB and Brahmos

15x Anza Mk2 MANPADS [Cargo] secondary explosions and rocket attacks

13x Infantry posts (Small with Observer) - Artillery and Jaguar strikes

14x Bunkers - Brahmos and Mirage 2000

3x F-16AM Falcon MLU - MKI and Bison

1x F-16BM Falcon MLU- MKI and Bison

4x F-7MP Skybolt [F-7PG] - - MKI , Mig-29 and Bison

4x HQ-16B TEL [Cargo] - MKI

3x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2- MKI and Bison

2x JF-17 Thunder Blk 2(AESA) MKI and Bison

1x Radar (China YLC-2V) - Brahmos

2x Radar (MPDR-45) - Brahmos

3x RB 70 Bolide MANPADS [Cargo] Jaguar with dumb bombs

3x RB 70 Rayrider Mk1 MANPADS [Cargo] M2k with LGB

1x Saab 2000 AEW&C [Erieye] MKI

3x Forward Operating Base MKI with Griffin LGB

1x Div HQ - M2k Spice 2000

1x Vehicle (HQ-16 FCR) [Cargo] - MKI

1x Vehicle (Skyguard Sensor Unit [CEROS 200 Tracker + CCD/IR]) [Cargo]- Jaguar

6x Vehicle (UAR-1021 Skyguard) [Cargo] - Jaguar

Indian losses

1x Heron UAV
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 2]
1x Jaguar IS [Darin 3]
3x MiG-21bis UPG Fishbed N [Bison]
2x MiG-29UPG Fulcrum A
2x Mirage 2000H-5
4x Su-30MKI Mk2 Flanker H


Ending note:
I continue to be surprised why the simulation considers the RVV-SD variant of the R-77 so ineffective.

My take is that the PA needs more fortified/bunkerized infantry& artillery firebases/fobs in southern Punjab and Sind. This will add to security against any Indian mechanized threats as well as provide sites for air defense/surveillance. Just their presence will force IAF to deploy resources to attack them..... and they can serve as lores for PAF and SAM ambush's.

As IAF squadron strength diminishes....the dilution effect of theses sites would be greater and greater. Especially since any real escalation in a Indo-Pak conflict will be short....the big guys will intervene to prevent any nuclear exchange....or it will simply go nuclear.

Shouldn't require too much resources. Some bulldozers, some concrete, some infantry (with tons of ATGMs) and mortors/field howitzers. Most expensive parts would probably be the air dense and radars.