"Your contention I think (thought it seems to be ever-changing!) is that the Afghani Taliban are provided refuge in Pakistani Taliban areas of Waziristan, and then cause some trouble in the periphery of the Afghan East. That is possibly true."
YOU THINK "POSSIBLY"??? Too rich, Road Runner!
No. That's my contention-wonderfully put excepting "some", "possibly" and that sanctuary extends along the entire periphery, not just Waziristan. With those modest amendments you may etch it in stone.
If you remove the "possibly" from that statement, then you're definitely wrong. I've already asked you to tell me how the Taliban can operate so far within Afghanistan when it is supposedly, according to you, all lying within Pakistan. How exactly do they travel to the war zones in the centre of Afghanistan and the West of Afghanistan? Toyota pickups? If so, the US is doing a VERY poor job of not taking them out. Do they live in the Afghani Pashtun villages and move slowly on foot an horseback closer to the warzones in the centre of Afghanistan? If so, they must have the support of the local Afghani populations who are sheltering them. Now using your definition of the term "sanctuary" (let me remind you this time - Definition of Sanctuary from Merriam-Webster - "2 a (1): a place of refuge and protection (2): a refuge for wildlife where predators are controlled and hunting is illegal b: the immunity from law attached to a sanctuary"), the Afghani populations MUST be giving them sanctuaries in this second case. So, there are two possibilities, either the US army is so incapable it cannot take out Toyota pickups carrying lots of military hardware, OR the Afghanis are giving the Taliban sanctuaries to go and fight in the central and Western Afghanistani provinces. There are no other alternatives.
"... But the Afghan East is only one of MANY fighting flashpoints within Afghanistan."
Yes. For instance, there's the Afghan south. Very bad. Helmand & Kandahar remain difficult. What nation borders this area? What is the heartland of the Taliban? Kandahar? Fascinating.
Fascinating indeed for someone with less than a cursory knowledge of the geography of the area. Waziristan borders only Pakhtia, not the Afghani South. Whilst Helmand could be explained by militants crossing over from somewhere like Dalbandin, the tribal areas cannot provide any sanctuary for any of the fighters in Helmand - they are too far away.
Let's assume though that all the border fighting is being done from Pakistani sanctuaries (much evidence to the contrary with Mullah Omar suggesting the Pakistani Taliban have not been doing any fighting in Afghanistan), but let's assume. How do you explain the rest of the map, with intense fighitng in Central Afghanistan, and Western Afghanistan's Farah province? Where are the sanctuaries for these places?
Here is the map. See those places with intense fighting in the centre of Afghanistan, what does your thus far lacklustre logic tell you about where that fighting is originating from?
As for the reason why the fighting is in the border areas, and central and western Afghanistan, perhaps this map will help you to see the reason. It is an ethnic and tribal conflict with the Taliban (though not with Al Q who have different reasons).
"Mullah Omar is suggesting that the Pakistani Taliban have not been doing this, and have been staying in Pakistan."
Here you re-iterate a constant theme- a profound distinction between organizations. Instead, I see clear operational lines of authority extending from Omar through...whoever accepts the position after Mehsud. One issues orders. One follows or doesn't and gets fired, sacked, killed, whatever. At stake appears whether that relationship will continue and in that same manner. It seems we'll know if/when Omar finds a replacement. The cut of cloth and tribal affiliation of this individual will be interesting to note, if we're made aware of whom he is at all (quite possibly not, given the heady arrogance subsequently displayed by Mehsud).
Like I said before, and have always said, Pakistanis/Pakistani Taliban do contribute to some fighting in Afghanistan (the border areas in Pakhtia mainly, though as the Mullah Omar quote suggests, they've not done any fighting even there). However, the majority of the fighting in Afghanistan, against the US is done by AFGHANI Taliban who are based in Afghanistan. It is logistically impossible for Taliban based in Pakistan to be carrying out operations in central Afghanistan without those sanctuaries in Afghanistan itself. In conclusion, the majority of the fighting against the US in Afghanistan is carried out by Afghani Taliban with sanctuaries in Afghanistan. That is what the evidence suggests. The Pakistani Taliban have contributed minimally to any violence in Afghanistan.
