Mehsud Sacked

[S-2]

"On the story itself, it is also entirely possible that this was a GoP plant to spread confusion within Taliban ranks and move support away from Mehsud."

I've wondered generally about the article's potential for dissemblance. The reporter, though, states his source as a well-placed Taliban source. To me that reads an upper-level contact w/ whom the reporter has a rapport such to trust the info. Nonetheless, reading the article one can easily imagine multiple fissure lines- Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, al Qaeda, bajauri tribes and sub-sets, Mehsud tribespeople, Afghan taliban- arising without need of GoP interference. The friction is plain enough and involves everybody, it seems. It's a real fur-ball of possibilities so who really knows?

I don't, for instance, know more about a fuel convoy destroyed by the Taliban. That sounds like big news. I believe it, offhand. It makes decent, though not perfect, sense.

 

[S-2]

Definition of Sanctuary from Merriam-Webster - "2 a (1): a place of refuge and protection (2): a refuge for wildlife where predators are controlled and hunting is illegal b: the immunity from law attached to a sanctuary"

FOBs (Forward Operating Base) for the Taliban within Afghanistan have existed since 1980 w/ the Mujihideen. Of course, they possess areas within Afghanistan to which they retire and reconstitute-until attacked. Then, they are forced to defend or disperse while NATO sacks their supplies left behind. So long as they aren't detected, these areas remain beyond contest.

Hunting Taliban, an oddly protected, unusually mangy species of wildlife under the Pakistani definition of Wild Game Management, is restricted to Pakistanis within all borders of Pakistan. Pakistan issues no licenses to foreign hunters yet themselves display little desire to hunt taliban. Thus taliban multiply and prosper in safety while making war across the border. The Taliban does so knowing always that they can absolutely pull back across the Pakistani border -ANYWHERE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY- with Afghanistan and be absolutely protected-as it has been since 1980.

The GoP's relationship w/ the taliban is ...complicated.

 

[S-2]

"Now remeber---Mullah Omar was in Kandhar when u s troops captured that city---they knew he was in the town---why did they not have better planning to capture him---he is not an invisible man----he would stand out in a crown of 10 thousand people with his one eye----this guy escaped riding pillion on a 100cc yamaha motorcycle---did the u s had no assets in the air around the city---all these escapes by the top al qaeda and taliban at the same time---under similiar circumstances---looks so suspicious and intentional---have the americans lost all of it---can't they see the treachery and larceny in their own ranks---a bitter pill to swallow isn't it---if you want to do the job right---you have to do it yourself---when the things are within your frame of influence--- right time the first time when you have the oppurtunity."

Who knows? I've got a laundry list of American foul-ups off the top of my head that run back to getting off the boat at Plymouth Rock, Massachusetts in 1620. We make plenty all the time. Lot of stuff there that I agree with and is a real (as you put it) "bitter pill to swallow" indeed. PLENTY of guys I know terribly pissed about Tora Bora in 2002. We know many of the problems of Afghanistan, believe me, and are learning more all the time.

Hey, let's be serious-take the Taliban out of the equation and what's Afghanistan? It's still a basket-case. It was before the Soviets whacked Hafizullah Amin in December, 1979. Or Amin's guys whacked Mohammad Daoud Khan. The issues for Afghanistan are hugely familiar regardless of the cut of cloth.

 

[MastanKhan]

S-2,

You are correct about the taliban. The issue that I want to address is that where is it going to end under the current conditions.

Afghanistan needs a major troop upsurge---10---20---30 times the troop strength of now. It will show american committment in afghanistan---it will change the pakistan army approach in the tribal areas. Once the taliban realized that there would be no place to run and hide---it will be the time to decide---whether to live or to die---afghans always had an escape route in the past---with high number of troops on both the sides---they will have to give in. Poppy crops need to be eradicated and with more troops it will get easier. Stop their purchasing power and they are done.

 

[Tiki Tam Tam]

He's drawn unwanted attention to the Taliban's critically important and long-nurtured sanctuary. Nothing comparable exists in Afghanistan. The Taliban can't afford alienating the Pakistani Pashtun tribes nor losing Quetta and their Pakistani networks of supply, arms, drug markets, and banking. Doing so would be comparable to only Zarqawi and the AQI's boneheaded defeat in al-Anbar. In fact, the twin battles of Pakistan and Afghanistan are unsustainable and NOT mirror-image conflicts. Thus, a choice seems to have been made.

If so, the best peace-feeler Omar could extend to Musharraf would be to visibly re-orient the Taliban towards the Americans in Nangahar, Paktia, and Paktika and the British, Dutch, and Canadians in Helmand/Kandahar/Uruzgan. Naturally, the Americans would welcome this development. The Canadians, Dutch, and British less so. Dramatically stepping up attacks against NATO now (despite winter-time), of course, would indirectly reveal just how important retaining these Pakistani support networks is to the Taliban.

The Taliban have chosen to contest Afghanistan and must retain their advantage of Pakistani sanctuary. Mehsud has endangered this irreplacable asset.

Some thoughts.

A very candid analysis.

Obviously, the principle of war of Concentration of Force was being violated wherein it was becoming a two front war by the AQ. And that too, in opposite directions.

This bi-directional battle was indeed dividing the force being applied by the AQ with the consequent lack of cogent results. And rightly brought out, the AQ sanctuaries were being "lighted", making things difficult to the AQ and their supporters.

Mehsud is, however, a leader to be reckoned with in his own territory. Could this create a spilt in the AQ/ Taliban?

 

[S-2]

Brigadier,

"Mehsud is, however, a leader to be reckoned with in his own territory. Could this create a spilt in the AQ/ Taliban?"

A.M. suggested that the Asia Times story could be a plant but I disagree. Still, the enmity generated by such a decision is quite probable and may already be at play. The article alludes to the infinite possibilities, most prominently an A.Q./Taliban split in the home of their Pakistani Pashtun hosts.

That's just bad manners.

 

[Proud to be Pakistani]

Very nice post!... Completely agree with your Opinion

Perhaps the statements are just a decoy, or perhaps just some misinformation. Either way, if Mehsud was using all his men to fight the Pakistani Army, then they couldn't be doing any fighting in Afghanistan now could they?

Though it does seem Mullah Omar, if he said this, is a bit more friendlier with the Pakistani government now, whilst Al Q have been urging attacks on the Pakistani government. That would be a welcome difference.



You've misunderstood what the text is trying to say. When he, assuming it's true and not made up, said that the Afghan front was quiet, he obviously meant Mehsud's part of the Afghan front. It's possible Masood is contributing to the fighting in some of the border areas, but no way is he able to logistically contribute to any fighting hundreds or thousands of miles within Afghanistan. I hope you'll admit NATO would have an easy time seeing the movement of thousands of Masood's troops?

It is known fact that the Afghani resistance has increased of late with much of the South in Taliban hands, plus a sustained winter campaign by them. Ths suggests the remark (again if true), that the Afghan front is quiet (which is impossible) because Mehsud is fighting the Pakistani Army, refers to the border areas only of Pakhtia where Mehsud could be involved in some violence (in other words Mehsud's part of the Afghan front is quiet). But if you look at Pakhtia, it is only one of 7 or so districts involved in the insurgency.

Do you believe that Mehsud's fighters are fighting in Helmand, Kandahar, Nangahar, Uruzgan? Yes or no.



Incorrect logic here. Taliban attacks have stepped up in the past few months against NATO in Afghanistan. If this statement is true, the Mehsud's "Taliban" have not been contributing to the rise in violence. This suggests that the violence that has occurred, and the rise of that violence must have come from within Afghanistan. It certainly did not come from Waziristan if Mehsud was using all his troops to fight the Pakistani Army.



Mehsud never really did much in Afghanistan. The Afghanis would not let him move so many troops into Afghanistan, nor would he be able to overrun any area without the acceptance of the local population, which he would not get given the fierce rivalries of the chiefs.

In conclusion, if Mehsud was head of the Pakistani Taliban, and by Mullah's Omar's supposed own words, he has not been doing any fighting in Afghanistan, this is pretty much proof that the Pakistani Taliban have not been fighting in Afghanistan..assuming what's been said is correct.

 

[roadrunner]

Definition of Sanctuary from Merriam-Webster - "2 a (1): a place of refuge and protection (2): a refuge for wildlife where predators are controlled and hunting is illegal b: the immunity from law attached to a sanctuary"

Yes, yes, we know the definition of a sanctuary thank you very much.

FOBs (Forward Operating Base) for the Taliban within Afghanistan have existed since 1980 w/ the Mujihideen. Of course, they possess areas within Afghanistan to which they retire and reconstitute-until attacked. Then, they are forced to defend or disperse while NATO sacks their supplies left behind. So long as they aren't detected, these areas remain beyond contest.

Hunting Taliban, an oddly protected, unusually mangy species of wildlife under the Pakistani definition of Wild Game Management, is restricted to Pakistanis within all borders of Pakistan. Pakistan issues no licenses to foreign hunters yet themselves display little desire to hunt taliban. Thus taliban multiply and prosper in safety while making war across the border. The Taliban does so knowing always that they can absolutely pull back across the Pakistani border -ANYWHERE ALONG ITS PERIPHERY- with Afghanistan and be absolutely protected-as it has been since 1980.

The GoP's relationship w/ the taliban is ...complicated.

I don't entirely disagree with the bolded part, except that Mullah Omar is suggesting that the Pakistani Taliban have not been doing this, and have been staying in Pakistan. That would leave the Afghani Taliban. Your contention I think (thought it seems to be ever-changing!) is that the Afghani Taliban are provided refuge in Pakistani Taliban areas of Waziristan, and then cause some trouble in the periphery of the Afghan East. That is possibly true. But the Afghan East is only one of MANY fighting flashpoints within Afghanistan. So who is doing the fighting in the areas not bordering Pakistan and where are the sanctuaries of these people. The answer is their sanctuaries are within Afghanistan itself, and this is where the majority of the Afghan Taliban sanctuaries are.

Where I disagreed with you before, is the ridiculous thought that the Taliban were travelling thousands of miles across Afghanistan to fight and then coming back to their bases in Pakistani Waziristan. It's the most ridiculous thought, because 1) it would be next to impossible to travel such huge distances without being noticed in a Toyota pickup, or 2) it would need the cooperation of the Afghani people if they were to go from village to village in cognito. In the second case, the sanctuaries must be in Afghanistan if it is a slow "dribbling" movement to a war zone. The final point I'd say is that the 1980s were a different set of circumstances, and Pakistan would not be using the same strategy as you've suggested.

 

[Spring Onion]

OK guys i had to skip the posts by all of you


and to S-2 yes there is not only split but there was no alliance existed in the first place between Al-Qaeda and the Real Taliban i repeat the Real Taliban who are only fighting against foreign occupation of Afghanistan.

And the news of sacking Baitullh is not new i had been saying it repeatedly that Mullah Omer was never ever against Pakistan nor he had ever waged war against State of Pakistan nor the Pakistani Army.

Hence this news should be realy eye opener for all that there is wide difference between Taliban, Al-Qaeda-Baitullah.

Baitullah is part of Al-Qaeda hence we need to root him out, while Mullah Umer is only for fight in Afghanistan not Pakistan.

Plus Agno i do not agree with you that we should not talk to Taliban.

I say getting Taliban on board will be beneificial for all including USA.

USA can only have her real goals accomplish if she takes Taliban, Pakistan on board along with other ethnic groups of Afghanistan.
Only than US can see real peace for its embitions.

And why not currently US is already in secrete talks with Talibans.

I say Pakistan should have contacted the much before its too late.


Now let me post the real news about Sacking of Baitullah

 

[Spring Onion]

Taliban wield the ax ahead of new battleBy Syed Saleem Shahzad

KARACHI - With the Taliban's spring offensive just months away, the Afghan front has been quiet as Taliban and al-Qaeda militants have been heavily engaged in fighting security forces in Pakistan's tribal regions.

But now Taliban leader Mullah Omar has put his foot down and reset the goals for the Taliban: their primary task is the struggle in Afghanistan, not against the Pakistan state.

Mullah Omar has sacked his own appointed leader of the Pakistani Taliban, Baitullah Mehsud, the main architect of the fight against Pakistani security forces, and urged all Taliban commanders to turn their venom against North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces, highly placed contacts in the Taliban told Asia Times Online.

Mullah Omar then appointed Moulvi Faqir Mohammed (a commander from Bajaur Agency) but he refused the job. In the past few days, the Pakistani Taliban have held several meetings but have not yet appointed a replacement to Mehsud.

This major development occurred at a time when Pakistan was reaching out with an olive branch to the Pakistani Taliban. Main commanders, including Hafiz Gul Bahadur and the main Afghan Taliban based in Pakistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani, signed peace agreements. But al-Qaeda elements, including Tahir Yuldashev, chief of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, undermined this initiative.

"We refused any peace agreement with the Pakistani security forces and urged the mujahideen fight for complete victory," Yuldashev said in a jihadi video message seen by Asia Times Online. Yuldashev's closest aide and disciple, Mehsud, last week carried out an attack on a Pakistani security post and then seized two forts in the South Waziristan tribal area.

As a result, Pakistan bombed South Waziristan and sent in heavy artillery and tanks for a major operation against Mehsud. Other important commanders are now in North Waziristan and they support the peace agreements with the Pakistani security forces.

Pakistan's strategic quarters maintain the planned operation in South Waziristan is aimed particularly at eliminating Mehsud.

"While talking to government representatives in the jirga [peace council] we could clearly discern a grudge against Baitullah Mehsud and the Mehsud tribes by the security forces. And there are signs that the government is obsessed with a military operation to make Baitullah Mehsud a martyr," a leading member of the peace jirga in South Waziristan, Maulana Hisamuddin, commented to Voice of America.

Mehsud came into the spotlight after Taliban commander Nek Mohammed was killed in a missile attack in South Waziristan in mid-2004. Nek was from the Wazir tribe, which is considered a rival tribe of the Mehsud. Haji Omar, another Wazir, replaced Nek, but support from Yuldashev and Uzbek militants strengthened Mehsud's position. He rose through the ranks of the Taliban after becoming acquainted with Mullah Dadullah (killed by US-led forces in May 2007) and Mehsud supplied Dadullah with many suicide bombers.

Dadullah's patronage attracted many Pakistani jihadis into Mehsud's fold and by 2007 he was reckoned as the biggest Taliban commander in Pakistan - according to one estimate he alone had over 20,000 fighters.

The link to Dadullah also brought the approval of Mullah Omar, and when the Taliban leader last year revived the "Islamic Emirates" in the tribal areas, Mehsud was appointed as his representative, that is, the chief of the Pakistani Taliban.

Mehsud was expected to provide valuable support to the Taliban in Afghanistan, but instead he directed all his fighters against Pakistani security forces.

With Mehsud now replaced, Mullah Omar will use all Taliban assets in the tribal areas for the struggle in Afghanistan. This leaves Mehsud and his loyalists completely isolated to fight against Pakistani forces.

Taliban aim for the jugular
According to Taliban quarters in Afghanistan that Asia Times Online spoke to recently, the Taliban have well-established pockets around Logar, Wardak and Ghazni, which are all gateways to the capital Kabul.

Many important districts in the southwestern provinces, including Zabul, Helmand, Urzgan and Kandahar, are also under the control of the Taliban. Similarly, districts in the northwestern, including Nimroz, Farah and Ghor, have fallen to the Taliban.

Certainly, the Taliban will be keen to advance from these positions, but they will also concentrate on destroying NATO's supply lines from Pakistan into Afghanistan. The Taliban launched their first attack in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province on Monday, destroying a convoy of oil tankers destined for NATO's Kandahar air field.

"If NATO's supply lines are shut down from Pakistan, NATO will sweat in Afghanistan," a member of a leading humanitarian organization in Kabul told Asia Times Online on condition of anonymity. "The only substitute would be air operations, but then NATO costs would sky-rocket."

Syed Saleem Shahzad is Asia Times Online's Pakistan Bureau Chief.
(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

[roadrunner]

"We refused any peace agreement with the Pakistani security forces and urged the mujahideen fight for complete victory," Yuldashev said in a jihadi video message seen by Asia Times Online.

Who does Yuldashev think he is! Wonder why he doesn't stick to Uzbekistan!

You have a point Jana about talking with the Taliban. I'd agree with it. It's the strongest Pashtun movement right now. Even though I'd prefer a less radical ideology, it's still the best available option currently. A Taliban that distances itself from OBL, Yuldashev etc would be alright I think.

 

[MOSABJA]

OK guys i had to skip the posts by all of you


and to S-2 yes there is not only split but there was no alliance existed in the first place between Al-Qaeda and the Real Taliban i repeat the Real Taliban who are only fighting against foreign occupation of Afghanistan.

And the news of sacking Baitullh is not new i had been saying it repeatedly that Mullah Omer was never ever against Pakistan nor he had ever waged war against State of Pakistan nor the Pakistani Army.

you are are right TALIBAN are not our enemy rather they are fighting our PAKISTANS war.They are fightin against theNATO which is supporting BLA.
They are fighting US which is threateneing PAK NUKES
They are figting US which sys pakistan wont survive till 2015
They are figting NATO which has given a fre hand to INDIA.

Taliban are in bajaur in Mohmand .But the fight is going on in SOUTH WAZIRISTAN(only in Mahsud areas while 75 %is controlled by Maulvi Nazir) the reason of it is very simple mahsuds are sheltering UZBEKS and members of EAST TURKESTAN ISLAMIC MOVEMENT which damages Pak relations with CHINA .So BAITULLAH deserved it for creatng problems.

So we need to have GOOD RELATIONS with THE REAL TALIBAN and dont forget that MULLAH OMAR is the most precious asset because he si the AMEER AL MOMINEEN
whose obediance the TALIBAN consider obligatory so if PAKISTANI TALIBAN or people like MUALANA FAZLULLAH go out of control then gov can approach Mullah Omar who is pak friendly and is Much wiser Because he knows that

situation might take such a turn that ONE MISTAKE OF US or NATO
To upset BALOCHISTAN
or
VIOLATE PAKISTAN SOVEREIGNITY
or
THREATEN NUKES

would force Pakistan to help Taliban so MULLAH doesnt want conflict with Pakistan instead he wants UNION.

THUMBS UPMULLAH OMAR AND GOOD TALIBAN.

 

[khanz]

this is a great opportunity for pak to take advantage now he is somewhat isolated use this chance to step up the pressure and continue pounding him and his supporters this is the best chance to take out the pakistani taliban for good.

 

[Spring Onion]

Khan that is what we are doing.
Baitullah is a terrorist and part of Al-Qaeda. Hence Pakistan is all out going against him.


MOSABJA i would not agree with you that Taliban are fighting our war in Afghanistan.
They are representing majority Pashtun population who have been side lines by NATO and US while a minority Northern Alliance and War Criminals have been imposed as rulers.
That is the biggest mistake which in time if not corrected we all should forget that any normalicy can come any soon to Afghanistan.

Thats why i always say Pakistan, US need to take along Taliban in the process, (yes there are some elements who are rigid and they need to be tackle) But to adopt a strategy to keep Majority Pashtuns out of the parliament will continue to create problems.

Its time US should realize to come gradullay to getting out of Afghanistan, Engage players from Pakistan who can have talks with Taliban and other groups for longstanding peacefull envirnoment for US policises and goals in Afghanistan. Such a long-standing peaceful atmosphere will noyt only help Afghans but will also help in accomplishing US desire to reach CARs and have hold there.

 

[S-2]

"Your contention I think (thought it seems to be ever-changing!) is that the Afghani Taliban are provided refuge in Pakistani Taliban areas of Waziristan, and then cause some trouble in the periphery of the Afghan East. That is possibly true."

YOU THINK "POSSIBLY"??? Too rich, Road Runner! No. That's my contention-wonderfully put excepting "some", "possibly" and that sanctuary extends along the entire periphery, not just Waziristan. With those modest amendments you may etch it in stone.

"... But the Afghan East is only one of MANY fighting flashpoints within Afghanistan."

Yes. For instance, there's the Afghan south. Very bad. Helmand & Kandahar remain difficult. What nation borders this area? What is the heartland of the Taliban? Kandahar? Fascinating.

"Mullah Omar is suggesting that the Pakistani Taliban have not been doing this, and have been staying in Pakistan."

Here you re-iterate a constant theme- a profound distinction between organizations. Instead, I see clear operational lines of authority extending from Omar through...whoever accepts the position after Mehsud. One issues orders. One follows or doesn't and gets fired, sacked, killed, whatever. At stake appears whether that relationship will continue and in that same manner. It seems we'll know if/when Omar finds a replacement. The cut of cloth and tribal affiliation of this individual will be interesting to note, if we're made aware of whom he is at all (quite possibly not, given the heady arrogance subsequently displayed by Mehsud).