Make In India - Fighter Jet musings - News, Developments, Updates - F16,F18, Gripen, Any other

[Ankit Kumar 002]

It took 40 years for LM to produce 4500 f 16 , that's about 100+ per year. They are claiming to move entire production line for us. So no way its gonna take 17 years to produce 120 planes for biggest defence giant in the world. if every thing go well and production start in 2020 we can hope for 2026- 2030.

Let me try explain my PoV.

If I am optimistic , I expect the official competition to start before next FY. Then I expect the tests ( crucial since in MMRCA only 2 qualified ) to take 1 and 1/2 year. By 2019, the preferred bidder would be selected and negotiations would sTart.

By another 6-12 months I expect the negotiations over ToT, price, rights, guarantees to be over.

And by 2021 start the contract and 15% payments made.

It should take 24-30 months to setup infrastructure and , 3-6 months for first aircraft to roll out.

That's 2025-26 FY till now.

And if I take 6, 12, 24 aircrafts the rate of production in initial 3 years, its not before 2030 that all airframes will be delivered.

The important part we are missing here is , replacements are needed from 2017-22 , the time we will be taking Mig21s out.

@PARIKRAMA

 

[GoodKnight]

Shukla ji is writing daily now on this..
I wonder how much public opinion he wants to build? or may be write write and write so that gospel becomes the truth?

Yes, Ajay Shukla is the only one in the world with an agenda.

Nobody else has any agenda. boo hoo.

 

[migflug]

Let me try explain my PoV.

If I am optimistic , I expect the official competition to start before next FY. Then I expect the tests ( crucial since in MMRCA only 2 qualified ) to take 1 and 1/2 year. By 2019, the preferred bidder would be selected and negotiations would sTart.

By another 6-12 months I expect the negotiations over ToT, price, rights, guarantees to be over.

And by 2021 start the contract and 15% payments made.

It should take 24-30 months to setup infrastructure and , 3-6 months for first aircraft to roll out.

That's 2025-26 FY till now.

And if I take 6, 12, 24 aircrafts the rate of production in initial 3 years, its not before 2030 that all airframes will be delivered.

The important part we are missing here is , replacements are needed from 2017-22 , the time we will be taking Mig21s out.

@PARIKRAMA

It's completely a pet project for Modi's MII . It has nothing to do with tender/negotiations. Just like rafale, this will be g2g deal which need to happen before 2019.It is a complete geo political call and the deal will most probably go to LM(99%). As parikkar has said before , there will be another production line and the decision will be taken towards the end of the year.
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwihvfWfy9TPAhXCro8KHaxHBVgQFggfMAA&url=http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-select-one-or-more-fighter-aircraft-to-be-built-by-private-sector/article8248084.ece&usg=AFQjCNHPVREuWXCx919hYxbd1HamyDo6yw&sig2=sHvHkcZlCc7MVaxz1KLm4Q
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi3gZjGy9TPAhVLpo8KHdG9A9oQFghIMAc&url=http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/02/private-sector-to-make-fighter-jets-for.html&usg=AFQjCNEJJE4nsijc9ldP4tKrwbTLFgoczw&sig2=h3Jf5jay0w7WiuVVvsAyRQ

so i would guess, decision will most likely be made by 2017 or 2018 +1.5 year for negotiation + 3 year to set up infrastructure, thats 20-22. This thing is going to take much less time than MMRCA. As we have seen ,it took 1.5 year from announcement to signing of rafale, so if the aircraft is selected by next year ,it will be signed by 2018/2019.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

It's completely a pet project for Modi's MII . It has nothing to do with tender/negotiations. Just like rafale, this will be g2g deal which need to happen before 2019.It is a complete geo political call and the deal will most probably go to LM(99%). As parikkar has said before , there will be another production line and the decision will be taken towards the end of the year.
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwihvfWfy9TPAhXCro8KHaxHBVgQFggfMAA&url=http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/india-to-select-one-or-more-fighter-aircraft-to-be-built-by-private-sector/article8248084.ece&usg=AFQjCNHPVREuWXCx919hYxbd1HamyDo6yw&sig2=sHvHkcZlCc7MVaxz1KLm4Q
https://www.google.co.in/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0ahUKEwi3gZjGy9TPAhVLpo8KHdG9A9oQFghIMAc&url=http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2016/02/private-sector-to-make-fighter-jets-for.html&usg=AFQjCNEJJE4nsijc9ldP4tKrwbTLFgoczw&sig2=h3Jf5jay0w7WiuVVvsAyRQ

so i would guess, decision will most likely be made by 2017 or 2018 +1.5 year for negotiation + 3 year to set up infrastructure, thats 20-22. This thing is going to take much less time than MMRCA. As we have seen ,it took 1.5 year from announcement to signing of rafale, so if the aircraft is selected by next year ,it will be signed by 2018/2019.

Good if it happens.

But aren't you contradicting your own post where you quoted a article which talked about a " Competition "

Just saying Navy modernisation is too a pet project.... however where is P75I, more Akulas, start of work on SSN project , naval helicopters ?

 

[GoodKnight]

Good if it happens.

But aren't you contradicting your own post where you quoted a article which talked about a " Competition "

Just saying Navy modernisation is too a pet project.... however where is P75I, more Akulas, start of work on SSN project , naval helicopters ?

There are no 'pet projects'. ALL projects are in National Interest.

A competition will bring the best offer to the table, and the one with the best MII and price will win.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

There are no 'pet projects'. ALL projects are in National Interest.

A competition will bring the best offer to the table, and the one with th MII and price will win.

Well then its my timeline , which is a highly optimistic one will prevail.

And the Irony.

The greatest irony is we are ( as said by media portals ) going to start a competition to replace Mig21s. Which need a replacement starting 2017-22 , not 10 years later..

The replacements of Mig21 will eventually be Su30, LCA and Rafales.

 

[migflug]

Good if it happens.

But aren't you contradicting your own post where you quoted a article which talked about a " Competition "

Just saying Navy modernisation is too a pet project.... however where is P75I, more Akulas, start of work on SSN project , naval helicopters ?

Competition between gripen ng and f 16 block 70. I dont see any other options there.Both were already evaluated during MMRCA, so it wont be tested again. All will depend upon the package these two offers(which they already have as per parikrama). So i don't see any competition here. Its going to be a geo-political call. Also gripen NG is not available now, so as i said before f 16 gonna win hands down

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

Competition between gripen ng and f 16 block 70. I dont see any other options there.Both were already evaluated during MMRCA, so it wont be tested again. All will depend upon the package these two offers(which they already have as per parikrama). So i don't see any competition here. Its going to be a geo-political call. Also gripen NG is not available now, so as i said before f 16 gonna win hands down

Both have been tested => Yes
Did they pass the test ?

Even after being more capable( than what needs were there) , questions about capability were lobbed at Rafale , what do you think , a fighter aircraft , which was declared " failed In tests " by a IAF team will be inducted before a test where they qualify ?

 

[GoodKnight]

Well then its my timeline , which is a highly optimistic one will prevail.

And the Irony.

The greatest irony is we are ( as said by media portals ) going to start a competition to replace Mig21s. Which need a replacement starting 2017-22 , not 10 years later..

The replacements of Mig21 will eventually be Su30, LCA and Rafales.

This is just going to be an evaluation of their MII offers and price point.

The idea is to mass produce a low cost aircraft in India that can successfully replace the Mig 21 and help grow our squadron strength to 45.

Both have been tested => Yes
Did they pass the test ?

Even after being more capable( than what needs were there) , questions about capability were lobbed at Rafale , what do you think , a fighter aircraft , which was declared " failed In tests " by a IAF team will be inducted before a test where they qualify ?

There is no pass or fail. Only different capabilities and the responsibility of developing tactics that will overcome their weakness and use their strengths.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

This is just going to be an evaluation of their MII offers and price point.

The idea is to mass produce a low cost aircraft ibiasma that can successfully replace the Mig 21 and help grow our squadron strength to 45.



There is no pass or fail. Only different capabilities and the responsibility of developing tactics that will overcome their weakness and use their strengths.

On passing or failing.

The MMRCA was too to replace aging Migs, and were to be multirole , and requirements were meant by IAF accordingly , and tests were conducted without bias. And again we are talking about the same, but this time you say the same requirements are not needed ?

So yes, passing or failing does matter .

Low cost ?
I won't comment anything on these being low cost , other than what the Swiss parliament said about Gripen C/D while voting and what UAE paid LM for 25 F16s.

 

[GoodKnight]

On passing or failing.

The MMRCA was too to replace aging Migs, and were to be multirole , and requirements were meant by IAF accordingly , and tests were conducted without bias. And again we are talking about the same, but this time you say the same requirements are not needed ?

So yes, passing or failing does matter .

Low cost ?
I won't comment anything on these being low cost , other than what the Swiss parliament said about Gripen C/D while voting and what UAE paid LM for 25 F16s.

The MMRCA was an ill conceived and unprofessional requirement mapping. But it did help us evaluate pretty much all aircraft's in the word and learn from it.

This new requirement is more clear and specific, with a defined road map and political support.

Since we already have the aircraft performance from the MMRCA tests, no further technical evaluation will be required. So there is no pass or failing.

I do not want to waste time in useless speculation about the cost. Let the MII offers come in and let the L1 be decided on merits.

 

[migflug]

Both have been tested => Yes
Did they pass the test ?

Even after being more capable( than what needs were there) , questions about capability were lobbed at Rafale , what do you think , a fighter aircraft , which was declared " failed In tests " by a IAF team will be inducted before a test where they qualify ?

Its not about quality but quantity. There is a need to replace 14 sq of mig 21/27 with cheap planes under MII. Most importantly its about creating aerospace ecosystem + jobs under MII + engines tech (from usa if f 16 is selected) + geo-political decision.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

The MMRCA was an ill conceived and unprofessional requirement mapping. But it did help us evaluate pretty much all aircraft's in the word and learn from it.

This new requirement is more clear and specific, with a defined road map and political support.

Since we already have the aircraft performance from the MMRCA tests, no further technical evaluation will be required. So there is no pass or failing.

I do not want to waste time in useless speculation about the cost. Let the MII offers come in and let the L1 be decided on merits.

Well the MoD thinks otherwise.

And other deals presently happening/happened also support me. Be it SR SAM, or Howitzer, a new RFI means, retesting , and its even more oblivious when a system has failed in earlier trials.

Do you expect Indian Army to not to conduct retests for the rifles in new tenders because they have already at some point tested them all ?

No.


And on the cost , as I said. I didn't speculate , only put out what has happened.

And yes , we should wait for their offer , even before claiming them " Cheap ".

Because twice the cost of a MKI is certainly not cheap.

Its not about quality but quantity. There is a need to replace 14 sq of mig 21/27 with cheap planes under MII. Most importantly its about creating aerospace ecosystem + jobs under MII + engines tech (from usa if f 16 is selected) + geo-political decision.

Indian army too needs many things urgently , but will they or MOD go directly for a new rifle like Galil or HK417?

As for replacements , well all the 14 squadrons will be gone by 2022, and we need replacements by then . Not a decade later.

 

[migflug]

Well the MoD thinks otherwise.

And other deals presently happening/happened also support me. Be it SR SAM, or Howitzer, a new RFI means, retesting , and its even more oblivious when a system has failed in earlier trials.

Do you expect Indian Army to not to conduct retests for the rifles in new tenders because they have already at some point tested them all ?

No.


And on the cost , as I said. I didn't speculate , only put out what has happened.

And yes , we should wait for their offer , even before claiming them " Cheap ".

Because twice the cost of a MKI is certainly not cheap.



Indian army too needs many things urgently , but will they or MOD go directly for a new rifle like Galil or HK417?

As for replacements , well all the 14 squadrons will be gone by 2022, and we need replacements by then . Not a decade later.

we don't have any option to replace them in near future(only if we can buy additional su 30mki, about which iaf is not interested).Tejas can't be ramp up immediately as said by arup raha himself(will come by 2025-28).So all mig will be replaced only by late 20's. I thought tejas mk2 would be game changer , but the inefficient HAL/ADA can't even make tejas in time(foc) let alone tejas mk1a or mk2. And the production of HAL is so slow that we can't imagine tejas to be replacing migs any time soon. This tender is also about developing private competitor to HAL which can't do anything except screwdrivergiri.

 

[Ankit Kumar 002]

we don't have any option to replace them in near future(only if we can buy additional su 30mki, about which iaf is not interested).Tejas can't be ramp up immediately as said by arup raha himself(will come by 2025-28).So all mig will be replaced only by late 20's. I thought tejas mk2 would be game changer , but the inefficient HAL/ADA can't even make tejas in time(foc) let alone tejas mk1a or mk2. And the production of HAL is so slow that we can't imagine tejas to be replacing migs any time soon. This tender is also about developing private competitor to HAL which can't do anything except screwdrivergiri.

Options are there.

1. Addition Su30 MKI. And apart from HAL decorating production rate. No problem.
2. LCA , again HAL.
3. Second hand Mirage 2000s bought and upgraded.
4. Few Mig29SMT. ~45.